Why the move away? I find this surprising tbh given that there are many relevant market factors pushing me to go more MMA heavy.

ROFLOLOL

Initially when I was in the 'grow a bankroll' stage I focused on becoming an expert in some niche stuff like Rugby 7s, Esports, etc and getting big edges since it's a lot easier to get filled on niche stuff for 500 bucks than it is when you start firing bigger sums as the bankroll grows

Then once my bankroll got to the point where firing a few k isn't enough, I moved onto other sport with higher frequency high limit value spots (eg college bask hundreds of games a week vs MMA has maybe an average of one card a week) - and stuff like Rugby League, Rugby Union, etc that is popular in my part of the world and easy to get big sums down on at decent edges

I still fire MMA but 3 bets a week or whatever won't cut it when you're doing this at a more serious level volume wise and it involves watching a lot of tape etc to cap MMA so it's a major timesink vs the amount you can get down etc even if i'm making say a 5% roi per spot it's nice, but not necessarily the best use of my time from an hourly rate perspective since more time goes into it than average

Like I got 4 bets on this card, but the only one I felt super confident was high value was Tuivasa and sized accordingly, the rest were more 'think it's the right side but not sure and want the action' type bets

How the hell is Derrick Lewis an underdog against a no name ham-and-egger tub of lard? Life roll on Lewis by KO at +175!

That's how it's done. Congrats.

Daukus is an up-and-comer. It's just that he isn't ready to come into the Black Beast level just yet.

Anyone capping today's fights? No analysis from me, just a fan. On Moreno and Gane for now.

I'm super tempted by Ngannou as a dog or Ngannou decision no bet -143 looks solid too

Haven't fired yet most of the money has come on Gane but can't help but think Ngannou finds his chin

Super pumped to watch as a fan regardless of whether I bet or not though. Winner should rule the HW division as long as they want to.

Pounded fig and gane by decision. Good result overall but money aside, What a let down on the ME. Most boring possible outcome with the least hype building potential for future events.

Sal D'Amato should be banned from scoring fights

Absolutely crazy a 2nd judge scored r3 for Hermansson too

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision...ack-Hermansson

Sal's card has to be one of the worst in MMA history, Strickland was -10000 live before the decision at a lot of books etc

Only watched the main today because I was a bit busy but looking forward to Adesanya/Whittaker 2 card

If you look at the worst/ most controversial decisions by year, sal isn’t really notable.

The thing about the hermanson fight is that the 1st was a flip, and 3rd/5th were close enough that a different vantage point could change how you see the rounds. No individual round is outrageous to score for jack - it’s just strange to see them all go in that direction.

D'Amato legitimately needs to be banned from scoring and I don't say that lightly. UFC has let this go on too long.

+1 that guy is ridiculous.

I could understand if Hermanson was at least scoring punches and kicks but he barely connected and got his face reconstructed the entire fight. If a judge cannot understand the sport he is judging he should simply not judge.

I gave Hermanson the 1st round and the other 4 to Strickland and I thought I was being generous.

A lot of people saying Knight is a solid underdog bet at +145, just caught it at +147 on 5d and ut a 0.6u bet.

Good luck this weekend $$

UFC has no say in who judges the fights.

You’re right. I didn’t know much about the specifics of the judging until this week. Surprised there’s not more accountability tbh.

First time bettor betting on 7 fights Saturday. I probably bet too much but I think I got good / decent lines. I bet the $70 I won playing online the past two days. Hopefully I'm not becoming a degen.

Anyone who wants a busted line who can bet on stars, they have rosiane nunes by tko or decision at -133. Should be priced around -180 and probably worse. So busted you could do arbitrage just using stars heavily juiced lines on alternate outcomes and still make decent money.

good lookin out mate hell yeah

I revise my statement of “decent money” for arbing only on stars. Worked out the numbers and it’s only about a 3% ROI. You can hedge on other sites for slightly more or just leave it naked for approx 9% roi.


For those interested in my math (feel free to correct mistakes, I’m somewhat new to this)…

——


True odds for draw and nunes by sub is about 1% and 3% respectively, which are outcomes that are losses vs taking money line.

True odds of moneyline via bestfightodds (half way between the buy and sell) is -210/+210

-210 is .677 probability
Deduct 4% for sub and draws = .637

.637 break even line is -175

So at a price of -133,

You save 42/175 * pr of loss (.367)
= .24*.367
= 8.8% roi


The only thing I’m not sure of is whether the tko/ko includes dq wins (usually they’re lumped together). Dq’s are much less than 1% though so wouldn’t impact it much, and i over deducted for draws since I discounted the full 1% from true odds moneyline when it should only take off about half that since it would be normally result in a push.

Anyone else take that nunes line and **** themselves when she tried to slip the rear naked in? Wish I had more money on stars - I bottomed out on that one.


Also cheers to P stars for being the absolute worst at adjusting lines. For the main they had an “either fighter in the first round” at +300 , when almost every other book dropped the price on makachev in the first round from +300 to +200 following his interview 3 days ago.


Anyone know what the betting caps are like on stars? At initial release they seem to cap them really, really low but before fight time ive yet to be capped. Wondering if anyone has tried 4 or 5 figure bets and gotten them through on round betting / method of victory props.

i was able to get down 3.5k on the -133, which was their max for that. in general their max is usually pretty high other than longshot futures which are often 50 or 100 beans

Thoughts on future events/lines? Here are some that stand out to me…

Aspinal at +130 vs volkov

Seems way off. Volkov is b tier at best. We haven’t seen aspinalls ceiling and it may be very similar to volkov but that’s worst case scenario. Also Volkov has done poorly against big wrestlers in the past and Tom is not chinny enough to get caught on his entries. I think aspinal at -130 makes more sense.



Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell -140

Stylistic nightmare for barboza but moneyline seems fair, will watch closely to see what the Mitchell by decision line looks like. Any plus money on it and I’ll be buying.



Sterling at +333 vs yan

Crazy how off the price is from last fight closing odds. This was nearly even money. What changed? Very competitive before yan was DQed - probably would have been 2/2 going into the final round. Sterling looked exhausted so obv yans chances are much better to win that specific fight but +333/-350 is crazy.

Yan won a close decision against sandhagen since then - a guy that sterling subbed early. Means almost nothing for his chances against sterling.

I’d lean a bit more yan than the first time but the odds swing is massive and I think driven by people seeing sterling look weak when getting the knee to the head.

It will be interesting to see what the moneyline shift translates to in terms of sterling by sub/tko/decision odds.

Ok here’s another gimme for anyone looking to make some easy money.

P stars has Kennedy vs negumeriano over 1.5 rounds at -133. Slight arb possibility on other sites (not worth the effort) but IMO it’s a good line even at -160. Negumer looks like a finisher based on his history but it’s mostly against compete cans, and Kennedy is huge, can take a beating and has zero power.


Only props so far are on Colby/Jorge - the one that stands out is Colby in rounds 1/2/3 at +350.

It should pay about +290 based on other sites “rake free” pricing for round betting. Don’t feel great about it since my “feelz” is pointing towards a boring colby decision but I can’t turn down value lines.

I had a decent last card, I love getting to bet on Tsaryukan etc although I somehow had Makhachev by sub or dec, still went 5-2 for the card though for a decent profit

Agree re Aspinall as a dog he seems like the best HW prospect since Gane

Lot of the sharps I know like Mitchell too

And I agree on Sterling at above +300 he was going quite well early in the fight, got tagged a bit but it was competitive, yes Yan is prob a small fav but certainly no more than -200 so the price is very attractive imo above +300

"And I agree on Sterling at above +300"

Also, I've often wondered if the current champ has another edge, and and that is if one of the fighters is fighting hurt, it seems more likely to the be challenger, since the champ could just pull out and keep the belt, but the challenger might be worried about getting replaced and having to win a non-title fight (or two) to get another shot.

Maybe I'm wrong (or maybe it's priced in).

I’m building a database to test these types of hypotheses.

Ie: Are champions over valued or under valued historically?


I suspect the lean will be well within margin of error given the sample size for that one but more generally I’d love to how fighters coming off wins, losses and streaks are priced relative to outcomes.


Anyone who has money on fanfuel should check out Colby in the first round finish at +1300.

It’s a major outlier relative to other round bets, and pairing it with other rake-free round prices beats his rake-free ITD line by a good margin.