Where do you guys watch the weigh-ins? I always have trouble finding them.

I want to keep firing on bigger fighters going forward- surprisingly workable.

At the end of the day Giga is the real deal. One more win and he deserves the title shot IMO.

Now we just need The Jake Paul for a perfect weekend !

Good luck every1 , post your picks fr upcoming weeks bros $$$$$

Think that Russian guy prob wins first round ko very very often in contender series tomorrow. Looks like a bigger mismatch that current price

let the record show i said that at -329 and its -672 now

I rarely entertain those -300 numbers but value is value (I priced him at -750). I got some at -330 this morning and decided to get some more but when I logged on I was over -700 everywhere LOL! My PPH’s didn’t offer KO or ITD so I added some U1.5 at -197. I’m not gonna lie, watching them stare down each other for 3 minutes was about as painful of a 3 minutes you’ll ever have.

Any looks and ideas for the upcoming UFC card? Some of these dogs seem kind of live.

i think you can take any julian erosa fight under and youll be okay.

I don’t have numbers yet but Jourdain R1 KO has to be an auto-bet prop unless the number is ridiculous.

You are right, there are a bunch of live short dogs on this card. I like Kim and Till to win comfortably, I don’t see the two big chalks losing. Of those live dogs I’d rank them as likelihood to get a W:
Zawada & Vendramini the best with gap to Rojo, Rountree & Erosa. Those last 3 could each be quick fights too.

I feel like hype is carrying pimbletts line but at the same time this is as perfect a spot to stick in some corrupt refs to protect their potential rising star if it’s at all close. Am I tin foil hatting here or does anyone else think there’s grounds for concern? Luigi record is better and against higher level competition. +150 seems pretty good.

I also really like spivak by decision at +500. Or a finish in round 2 or 3, thr latter of which pays +3200.

Can't imagine Shore losing very often at all and Till should probably be at least -200 imo

I feel like Aspinall wins a lot too but will be interesting as he keeps stepping up in competition bit of steam on Spivak etc

-11.5 week
-5.25 overall

Zawada +110 2.5U
Zawada Sub +725 .25U
Zawada R3 +1650 .25U

Rountree +140 2U
Rountree KO1 +550 .5U

Till KO +125 2U
Till KO3 +1050 .25U
Till KO4 +1850 .25U

Kim -115 1.25U
Vendramini +130 .75U
Shore ITD -110 1.25U

Jourdain KO +130 .75U
Jourdain KO1 +265 .5U

nobody is rigging a fight for paddy pimblett lol

Good luck every1 tonight $$$

Took a little Lawler since Diaz looks old and slow, both are the same age approx and Lawler has declined, but 6 years off is a lot to overcome pushing 40

Will probably get some Volk too, looked like Volk took his soul when he got fired up called him a drug cheat, crazy he legit didn't know Ortega had popped for roids after coaching a whole TUF season against him and being booked against him for most of a year given it's literally on his Wikipedia page

Blaydes is better everywhere except and should win but can't touch him at -3xx given HW and his chin

Obviously Valentina wins but her line is unbettable

Should be a fun card

i'm actually gonna take some ortega here. think he's got the tools to deal with shorter opponents well, he hits really hard, and if he stuns volk i think he's a good enough finisher to get him. volk's gonna let him hang around and that's very dangerous against ortega. not huge on it or anything.

i think blaydes is somewhat fine at this price. i got him a bit earlier so i'm under 300, but im not that worried about his chin. ngannou twice and a perfect shot from lewis, what can you do. its the best wrestler in the division vs. one of the worst, i'll take my chances.

If you want Ortega I see no reason not to take Ortega ITD, he wins a decision approximately 0.5-1% of the time, if he can't win rounds against all of the guys he's fought basically he's not gonna win on volume or takedowns etc against Volk. I feel like he'd need to get a knockdown or close sub that doesn't finish in 3/5 rounds to win, or two 10-8s somehow and I just don't see it

The only rounds he can win is if he gets a knockdown without a finish somehow or Volk gets in a bad position in a grappling exchange but doesn't get finished, and neither seem that likely to happen multiple times over the fight

The only way I might be wrong about this is if Covid took Volk's cardio completely and we're just unaware of it but as far as I know he didn't have long covid like Cody and Khamzat they seem to be the 2 UFC guys who had it out of the few dozen who have who got the serious long covid version etc

I think Volk is going to beat Ortega badly the same way Max did and just brutalise him to a 50-45 or accumulation of damage tko/rnc etc but I doubt he engages in the grappling because on the feet Ortega only has a puncher's chance

Ortega gives off this legit sociopath vibe to me where everything about him is fake him looking hurt when Volk called him a roider was the first somewhat legitimate show of emotion i've ever seen in him I think and I watched the entire TUF season, watching him feels like watching an empty vessel pretending to be a human

Obviously not a psychologist etc just find something really unsettling about Ortega like there's nothing behind his eyes. Hope Volk crushes him

Side note but Jon Jones arrested for domestic violence and vehicle tampering, as if we needed our annual reminder that he is a scumbag and a ****up

I guess i'm kind of tempted to go Bladyes into Volk to get Volk at about evens. Got Lawler at -14x forget the exact average price but the Nick Diaz looking like he's fat slow and can't box spooked the market so I got on, pretty sure i'll just hold it

Got some Volkanovski, Blaydes and Lawler for today so far

Really, Ortega 50-45'd KZ standing after a 2 year break showcasing standup like he never did before and you don't see him winning a decision from Volk? 1% of the time?

I find the +500 dec. much better value than +175 straight up.

Volkanovski is not the type of guy who will seat on his lead and let the clock run.

-jpp

I think people forget that Volkanovski is basically a shorter Max Holloway who fought him to two close standup fights (one of which he clearly won if I remember right and the other to a flip decision) who also has better wrestling than Max and therefore I can't imagine Ortega decisioning him more than small % of the time

I actually missed a lot of this last card live, need to rewatch it when I get time

Does the UFC preferentially match up fighters of the same race? I don't follow the sport that closely, but every once in a while I'll look at the match-ups, and I almost always notice that a disproportionate number of the fights are black-on-black or white-on-white. This weekend is another example: There are twenty fighters, four of them black. All their fights are against each other. It's less clear with Brazilians and Central Asians, but even there it seems like there's a preference to pit them against each other. Is this a known phenomenon? Does anyone have stats on this or use it as a handicapping input?

they split the races up into separate divisions

I'm not sure how it would apply to handicapping since it's more styles make fights than any specific race applying to anything in particular

Now that you mention it though it does feel like black fighters fight other black fighters a disproportionate amount and same with hispanic or white fighters fighting other fighters of their race. Obviously it's not a policy or anything there are plenty of white vs black vs hispanic etc matchups too but as a percentage it does seem low to me too considering the makeup of the roster

Hispanic may make sense as particular cards may be either in a hispanic country or in a city with a large hispanic population and feature fighters from the area. That could in theory apply to black fighters too although more so cities than countries as the UFC doesn't really seem to host cards in any majority black countries

I'm curious might take a look at a few card sample sometime but there are likely other factors eg a card in El Paso or Mexico City is going to have a disproportionate number of Hispanic fighters or a card in Mississippi may have a higher percentage of black fighters etc due to the racial makeup of the local population just like how a card in Europe will have more European fighters and so on or say a card in the Midwest is likely to have more white fighters etc since a lot of fighters fight a higher % of their fights closer to their home base