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Old 05-18-2021, 09:14 PM   #53751
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Re: MMA Thread

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I have this exact same fear (Covid effects) with Amanda Ribas.

I can catch her at -175 this second time around but until recently she was still having complications due to the virus and I have no idea which fighter will show up in a few weeks
I feel she would postpone if she wasnít good as a 2nd loss could be really bad for her career.

Any thoughts on Edman shahbazyan? I kinda wanna play him as a slight dog however he looked terrible cardio wise against Brunson. I feel Brunson is a lot better than people think though as shown in his recent history especially against Holland (maybe Holland is overrated but I think Brunson looked more impressive than vettori). I wanna play shahbazyan however I think itís a risky play and not confident in it.
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Old 05-22-2021, 07:03 PM   #53752
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Re: MMA Thread

good luck every1 tonite $$$
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Old 05-22-2021, 10:19 PM   #53753
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Re: MMA Thread

Annoying card for me went 2-2 but won the small two lost the big two

Hope everyone else went a bit better
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Old 05-29-2021, 02:46 PM   #53754
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Re: MMA Thread

No bets last event , thinking about betting Jairzhino but Sakai is a tough sob and durable.

Any thoughts?
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Old 06-04-2021, 11:24 AM   #53755
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Re: MMA Thread

i can't call that one. i think its a very close fight. you've got volume and clinch work on the side of sakai. you've got speed and power on the side of rosenstruick. sakai is going to slowly plod into range and give rosenstruick the opportunity to land big counters. that said, rosenstruick just doesn't have any round winning ability so he really needs to get the ko. sakai has seemed super durable but he hasn't really faced any real ko threats. rosenstruick has knocked out a lot of guys who are very likely to be knocked out.

I think sakai can probably win some rounds just pushing rosenstruick into the cage. sakai's huge skill definciecy has been off his back in the ufc, but rosenstruick won't test him there obv. In fact if anyone gets on top i would assume its sakai, though hes not much of a wrestling threat. basically i think this fight hinges on how good sakai's chin really is, nd i don't have a super good read on that tbh, so i'm passing. he's definitely going to be walking into some flush counters but should be putting out enough volume to be winning the rounds.

i've been building a position on manon fiorot across different sites since that new line came out. I got a big enough bet now. i just think this is an insanely lopsided matchup. short notice fight for a super green 115'er facing a super big and athletic 125'er. size, strength, power, technique, control of range all on the favor of fiorot. fiorot has legit punching power for a female, something that is rare and will be a massive shock to ricci. firots obv not a grappling specialist, but shes not a fish out of water on the ground either. Ricci has fought cans in lfa, and her wrestling game is non-existent. She just walks into the clinch and drags girls down. don't see that being a reliable path to getting fiorot down, who has massive athletic advantages. This price is super high, but i really don't think its high enough. Ricci was hurt to the body by one of the cans she fought in lfa. a smaller bjj style with no wrestling, no striking skills, and a massive physical horsepower difference makes no sense. should be well above -1000, but if you can stomach an annoying sweat, should find a small ROI there. fiorot should have all the advantages here, if she does get taken down it's definitely not a death sentence. being able to stomach betting a huge favorite is an edge you gotta be able to have in mma betting. i actually thought fiorot should have won her only loss in her pro debut, but even then it was at 135.

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Old 06-05-2021, 04:55 PM   #53756
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Joe Pulaski View Post
being able to stomach betting a huge favorite is an edge you gotta be able to have in mma betting. i actually thought fiorot should have won her only loss in her pro debut, but even then it was at 135.
OK - I'm tailing you. 5u on Fiorot to win .8u. Good luck.
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Old 06-05-2021, 09:19 PM   #53757
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Re: MMA Thread

I forgot about Sakai and how he actually uses his grappling, I think this line gets a bit juicier but putting a small 0.52u on Sakai at +110 , might add more
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Old 06-05-2021, 09:25 PM   #53758
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Re: MMA Thread

Walt is terribad, should have bet on Tybura there had been eyeing that one for weeks just never fired
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Old 06-05-2021, 09:39 PM   #53759
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Re: MMA Thread

adding 1u on Sakai at +125 at 365

I knew this line would get better right b4
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Old 06-05-2021, 09:49 PM   #53760
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Re: MMA Thread

meh he played it so safe just to run into his hook. frustrating, he is a much better fighter than that and that was the absolute worst strategy against Biggie Boi.
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Old 06-07-2021, 10:49 PM   #53761
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Re: MMA Thread

Getting in early on the following 2 lines:

Wonderboy Thompson (-135) 1.35u to win 1u. By now his TDD is top notch, on the feet he will counter Burns easily I believe and his chin is relatively good still so he should be able to take his 1st round power. Wonderboy's kicks should lead the way to an easy decision.

Sandhagen (-163) 1.63u to win 1u I think his reach and momentum will be too much for TJ who is coming back from a very long layoff. Sandhagen is the new generation of MMA athletes, the complete package. I will add more if the line hits -150 closer to fight time.
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Old 06-07-2021, 11:17 PM   #53762
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Re: MMA Thread

Ya i quite like WB too; he is getting old and will fall off a cliff at some stage but until it happens i'll keep backing him against worse technical strikers

TJ is still super good, but who knows how much of that was from him being on the juice if he was on it the whole time which seems likely gonna stay away from that one until we see what TJ looks like in 2021, could still be a world beater or could be complete garbage now
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Old 06-11-2021, 11:16 AM   #53763
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Re: MMA Thread

i'm taking lima tonight. think amosov is great, but hes just super well-rounded and good everywhere and almost impossible to takedown. not a dominant offensive wrestler, and then i just think he's going to give lima enough time and space to land the leg kicks. both guys phenomenal fighters but i just don't see a determined wrestling attack from amosov so i'll take the leg kicks from lima.

danger is that lima is the much more well-known fighter, and people don't know just how good amosov is, but his best performances have all been of the anti-wrestling variety.
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Old 06-11-2021, 11:12 PM   #53764
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Re: MMA Thread

maybe not
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Old 06-12-2021, 09:53 PM   #53765
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Re: MMA Thread

put 1.37u on Ridell mid second at -137 , almost caught the +110 but I will take this line too
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Old 06-12-2021, 10:06 PM   #53766
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Re: MMA Thread

oh yeah he got us there, once Drew decides to go into zombie mode while losing that 2nd it was all over for him. $$$
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Old 06-13-2021, 12:10 AM   #53767
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Re: MMA Thread

i m on Moreno live -160 . 1.6u to win 1u
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Old 06-13-2021, 01:01 AM   #53768
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Re: MMA Thread

0.33u at +350 Vettori live , 1 tiiiime
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Old 06-14-2021, 07:56 AM   #53769
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Re: MMA Thread

Last card was pretty solid only had two small bets but both got there, Izzy tko/dec and Craig fight under 1.5 rounds (granted I expected it to be Craig getting knocked out mostly but i'll take the sub too)

That was the best Paul Craig has ever looked probably
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Old 06-16-2021, 04:03 AM   #53770
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Re: MMA Thread

Jung wins by TKO/KO 4.15 don't look bad, Spivac ML 1.45 Oliynyk has the worst striking in ufc.
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Old 06-16-2021, 04:06 AM   #53771
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Re: MMA Thread

Any bookmakers with early lines there was ohmbet but it's gone. My bankroll is tiny (~120eur) you can definitely get solid value such as Sandman at even money line, Dustin 2.25.
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Old 06-16-2021, 09:58 AM   #53772
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Re: MMA Thread

ige has a really crazy chin
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Old 06-16-2021, 10:28 AM   #53773
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Re: MMA Thread

i like kanako murata this week as a slight dog. very similar fight to the carla fight in terms of matchup for virna. virna's a worse athlete, better technical striker, but she has fairly bad tdd and kanaka is a powerful wrestler. i think the grappling will possibly be back and forth, virna is obviously very good bjj player, but carla maintained top position for long stretches in that fight to take the win. i like kanaka's physicality and i think she should be slightly favored. she has good elbows on top, so tight rounds where both ladies have some top time may be swung in favor of murata's damage over virna's position/submission game. gonna be a good fight though. some risk kanako falls into an armbar or something, but i still favor her getting a lot of top position. i always tend to favor the power wrestler over the bjj player, but thats moreso in mens fights where the guard game is less dangerous, though virna hasn't shown a guard that is game over if you fall into it and kanako is very capable on top.

i don't see how spivak's game isn't perfectly suited to beating oleinik. aleksi is obv a crazy tricky grappler, but hes bad on bottom, will be giving up size and will run into insurmountable pace problems against spivak. think spivak probably finishes him with ground and pound in the 2nd or 3rd, but i guess i'll go back and rewtach the tybura fight before i move on that.

i'm interested in casey o'neil too. shes kind of a sloppy, hittable striker, and procopios striking isn't bad for a bjj girl, but I think this might end up as a grappling match and o'neil seems big and powerful and she seems like she might be able to drown you in pace. gonna have to think on this one a bit more. tough to really gauge how they'll matchup in the grappling as shana dobson and molly mccann arent the best opponents to weight their actual skill.

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Old 06-17-2021, 01:31 PM   #53774
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Re: MMA Thread

anyone on PLF tonight?

Rory is -1000 lolol yeah no thx
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Old 06-17-2021, 01:33 PM   #53775
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Re: MMA Thread

tailing your Kanako bet at +125 SIA 1u
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