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Old 05-01-2021, 11:41 PM   #53701
SwoopAE
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Re: MMA Thread

Hilarious and wrong judges scorecards to get to the correct draw in the end
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:12 AM   #53702
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Re: MMA Thread

Jiri looks like the clear favorite in this one. I'd like to see Reyes incorporate more offensive wrestling vs strikers like this. I'm doubtful he'll change his style at this point though. If that's the case then Reyes mostly just has a big puncher's chance.
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:14 AM   #53703
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Re: MMA Thread

Got some Reyes in the main at evens hopefully gets it done
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:23 AM   #53704
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Re: MMA Thread

Jiri stop ****ing bumping your own chest and keep that hand up brother , make me that $$$$$$
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:28 AM   #53705
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Re: MMA Thread

Wow!
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:29 AM   #53706
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Re: MMA Thread

Nice by Jiri guess he gets the next title shot

Evenish card for me think I went 2-3 with one draw but fortunately was biggest on Merab
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:31 AM   #53707
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Re: MMA Thread

BOOM

$$$

he needs to chill w the crazyness and he will beat Jan B. easily
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:50 AM   #53708
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Nice by Jiri guess he gets the next title shot

Evenish card for me think I went 2-3 with one draw but fortunately was biggest on Merab
your biggest bets were on -250 and -400 faves?

man you like to live dangerously lol

onto the next event !
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:54 AM   #53709
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Re: MMA Thread

Jiri showed very poor defense. He'll need to fight much sharper vs Jan.

Can't say enough good things about Reyes and his heart but unfortunately his striking skills are not at the same level as these euros (Prochazka, Rakic, Błachowicz).

Reyes was pretty much built with the perfect style to defeat Jon Jones. Unfortunately, Jones isn't in the division now and he needs to make huge changes if he wants to have success in this division now (funny enough Reyes said he made too many changes prior to his previous 2 losses).

Reyes needs to change camps and work with someone that is more wrestling-centric. Reyes has a long way to go before he is as good of a technical striker as the euros at the top of the division. However, he can be better than them in wrestling today.
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Old 05-02-2021, 01:51 AM   #53710
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Re: MMA Thread

I don’t see Reyes beating Jan, his wrestling is very good.

The others he might have a chance if he just wrestled them but all rounds start on their feet and he is way behind in that department.

It sucks because he is very good but I don’t think his skill set matches well with the top 5 in his division. Kind of like Rory McDonald’s run in the UFC, he would do much better at a softer org.
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Old 05-02-2021, 03:14 AM   #53711
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Nick Diaz View Post
your biggest bets were on -250 and -400 faves?

man you like to live dangerously lol

onto the next event !
Yeah idk what to say, didn't think Merab was going to lose; and after two rounds -400 seemed like a steal given he was up 2 rounds and very rarely gets finished; the -400 after two rounds was WAY better than -250 pre fight

My next biggest was actually Cutelaba which wound up in the weird split draw when it really should have been unanimous 28-28s
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Old 05-03-2021, 05:29 PM   #53712
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm on Amanda Ribas (-170) for 3.4u to win 2u

I think this is a huge mismatch in the grappling department and on the feet Ribas hits so hard. I think a lot of the time she just 1-2's Hill drives into the clinch and judo throws her all night long for a TKO from mount, sub or 30-27 decision.
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Old 05-04-2021, 03:22 PM   #53713
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Re: MMA Thread

Any opinion on Rodriguez vs Waterson? My gut says Rodriguez by a large margin, but im biased.
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Old 05-04-2021, 05:00 PM   #53714
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Re: MMA Thread

shes tough to figure out cause of how bad of a grappler she is
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Old 05-06-2021, 02:49 AM   #53715
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm actually taking a flyer on Angela Hill. I agree that Ribas should have a big advantage if it goes to the ground but I like Angela Hill's boxing athleticism and TDD and I think she has good winning chances.

One thing that I think a lot of people in this forum don't put enough emphasis on is the EV of a wager, as opposed to just picking who is most likely to win. In order to make money long term, you need the line to be theoretically mispriced. This tends to happen with underdogs more than favorites.

In other words, at -175 for Ribas to be a good bet you need her to win more than 175 / (175 + 100) = 63.6% of the time.

Does Ribas beat Angie more than 64% of the time? Maybe, but you're basically taking the position that you agree with the sportsbooks that she deserves to be the favorite, but you think that she deserves to be MORE of a favorite than the books have her as. And if you're wrong and she actually doesn't deserve to be the favorite, it's an EV disaster. The best bets are always going to be underdogs that in retrospect deserved to be priced as favorites. I think if you start thinking about bets in terms of equity and EV as opposed to "who is most likely to win" then you're on the right track.

That having been said you may very well be right, grappling tends to be much more deterministic than striking (meaning the better MMA grappler pretty much always dominates if there's a material difference in skill level between the two), and Ribas should in theory have a big advantage if the fight goes to the floor.
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Old 05-06-2021, 12:35 PM   #53716
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Re: MMA Thread

no offense but you're kind of explaining sportsbetting 101 in 5 paragraphs. think everyone here knows we're trying to beat prices
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:39 PM   #53717
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Re: MMA Thread

surprised at how terrible usman was.
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Old 05-06-2021, 10:50 PM   #53718
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Re: MMA Thread

His opponent looked gigantic. Thoroughly entertained by that fight and the Werdum fight.
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Old 05-08-2021, 08:49 AM   #53719
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Re: MMA Thread

Got some Harris and de Lima for tomorrow; just good prices chasing steam really.

Mostly interested in seeing how shot Cerrone looks and Ferreira/Gillespie tomorrow but not that keen to wager on either of them

Not a lot I love on the next few cards but pretty keen on Conor and Wonderboy with Conor being that he takes the camp seriously/looks good at weigh ins and I get the impression he's made the adjustments to check leg kicks against Poirier

I can't imagine Leon Edwards losing to Nate Diaz although he's so short already

Going to be interesting to see how Cody looks post-Covid

Esparza is kind of tempting as a dog too she must be insanely motivated given she has a win over Namajunas and it'd be her 5th straight win/Rose's only defeat she hasn't avenged other than Karolina who might be retired/is nowhere near the title picture

Nothing i'm too excited for this card though. The numbered cards are the big ones next couple months.

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Old 05-08-2021, 03:33 PM   #53720
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Re: MMA Thread

Good luck every1 tonight !! $$$$
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Old 05-08-2021, 05:46 PM   #53721
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Got some Harris and de Lima for tomorrow; just good prices chasing steam really.
.
tailing your Harris bet cause 365 still has it at -163 and has moved into the -200 pretty much elsewhere.
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Old 05-08-2021, 06:47 PM   #53722
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Re: MMA Thread

you da man Swoop $$$

oh **** my Ribas bet got cancelled just noticed
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Old 05-08-2021, 09:00 PM   #53723
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Re: MMA Thread

man Gillespie was +450 live lool i thought he was done there pulled a crazy comeback
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Old 05-08-2021, 10:01 PM   #53724
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Re: MMA Thread

Had a little Magny pre fight added some on mid r3 feels like hes gonna win r2-3 a lot how its going
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Old 05-08-2021, 10:02 PM   #53725
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Re: MMA Thread

In raw dollars I only got a small amount on at -112 a couple mins into r3 but just felt Magny taking over so pretty proud of myself assuming he won r2 like I thought on the cards
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