Down 1.2u on the night. Somehow I missed placing the Matthews dec bet - had it on my spreadsheet but must have forgotten to click “place bet.”

On to next week.


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I can give him that... so far lol. It's the outside of the cage aspects that really turn me off of fighters like Jones and Connor.

Won a unit or so for the card, woulda been 5 if Tuk got the split dec

Can't complain was legit close. Izzy crushed it, Costa horrible gameplan

Izzy is a good kid, he has mastered the troll game that`s all. Paulo made videos for months and months making fun of Izzy, it was payback.

Ended up 2-0 for +1.2u

A good couple of weekends these past 2 events, I see quite a bit of value on next one too.

Did you bet Jan straight up to hedge?

You could of bet Jan straight up at 3.0 for like 5k or something, make 10k on Jan or 10-15k on parlays had Reyes won.

Gotta love how these guys suddenly do a complete 180 to how they usually fight. Seen so many do it and now Costa too, they start fighting a different game.

He said he wasn't going to chase him and he didn't, so instead of putting it on Adesanya and chasing him, like you chase everybody, like you do vs everybody and bring the fight, you sit on the outside and get chewed up by a guy with an 8 inch reach advantage.

Man, gotta love MMA intelligence.

He prob was trying to pace himself because 5 rounds but bro wtf.

I really didn't like the Reyes stoppage, Reyes was defending himself, few punxhes landed but he had his guard up and the ref stopped in after the 4th punch which landed on his arms, unless the ref saw something I didn't, Reyes didn't really complain, so I guess it was ok.

Costa fought at range most of the fight and got owned for it, it looks so hard to close the distance on Izzy. As for Jan, he ruined my parlay, Reyes has looked much better, while Jan looked like a tank.

yea probably would have been smart but jan winning was so unexpected

It's gotta be tough to take beatings like Costa and Reyes took but IMO this loss is way worse for Reyes. At least Costa can sort of justify his loss and can move forward with confidence vs other MW contenders.

The problem Reyes is going to have moving forward is that the LHW division is a murderer's row of great experienced strikers. In addition to Jan, guys like Thiago Santos, Alexander Rakic, Jiri Prochazka, and Johnny Walker are all extremely tough matchups for him. Reyes can KO anyone but his striking is just good, not great.

stop it johnny walker is not a tough matchup for reyes

Reyes is pretty much a wrestler that never uses offensive wrestling. He reminds me of a slightly taller version of Chuck Liddell. Liddell was a great fighter but most of his wins came against wrestlers and grapplers. He was a terrible matchup for them because he had superior standup and could keep the fight standing. Same as Reyes.

However, against high level strikers Chuck Liddell was at best a coin flip. That's not to say he couldn't win those fights. Liddell, like Reyes, had the power to knock anyone out. The Overeem fight is a good example of that. That being said, before Overeem got caught, he was getting the better of the standup.

It should be noted that Chuck did use offensive wrestling at times, for instance to take down Overeem and also to take down Wanderlei a couple times. This is what Reyes has got to do going foward because a lot of these dudes have way more striking experience than him. Alexander Rakic started kickboxing/boxing in 2005. Jiri Prochazka won a national thai boxing title back in 2011. Reyes didn't even start fighting professionally until 2014 after his football career ended in 2013.

I mentioned Johnny Walker but you can throw in guys like Spann and Oezedemir as well, the latter of which most viewers and media members thought beat Dominick Reyes. Johnny Walker is not a tough opponent to beat. He's just a striker but if your only dimension is striking and it's not super high level then you are giving guys like Johnny Walker a very legitimate shot of beating you.

Dominick Reyes was the #1 LHW in the world going into this fight. He just lost to #3. Now, he should be a clear dog vs #2 (Santos) #5 (Rakic) and #6 (Prochazka) and there are a whole lot of other guys going all the way out of the top 10 that have a legit shot against him. Reyes's best shot of continued success is to utilize more wrestling, but there is no evidence that he will even try that much less be successful at it. He's only had 1 takedown in his UFC career, and it was a nice one vs Jeremy Kimball but he only did it after Kimball turned the match into a grappling match as he tried multiple times to take Reyes down.

The ref saw his nose sideways plastered all over his face.

It was over.

i'm not sure how holly isn't the clear pick here.

LOL pretty sure I saw Colby Covington in the audience at debate.


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Took Holly at 1.91.
Slightly concerned about her age but I like the fact that she is adding clinch control into her game.

As we saw in the Cyborg fight she is really strong there and although boring she can steal rounds that way.

I think this fight is likely to be a tentative kickboxing match for 5 rounds. But I think Holly's experience and clinch control gives her the age.

Aldana been improving fight to fight but I think coming off that KO win she is getting slightly overvalued here.

Does anyone know how Juliana Pena is? I know she blew both her ACLs right after her win, she was looking really good before that.

holly should outclass her imo. her only ever ko/tko loss was to the womens GOAT in nunes.

her main judges losses were to like, cyborg, shevchenko, de randamie, all pretty elite strikers. is aldana there yet? no idea lol.


Pena, from what i remember, is pretty strong grappler. problem is its probably her only path to victory, so its risky. but you would have to assume she will grapple, but if she cant hold her down shes ****ed as de randamie is a very very strong striker. she won via judges against Holm. so standing with her is very bad for pena.

neither are particularly active. Pena has 1 ufc fight since jan 2017. DR has 4 fights in the same timeframe. DR also has only lost twice in the past almost 10 years, both to Nunes. take from that what you will, but this fight seems risky.

I have no idea what to make of McGee/Condit

Obv in their primes Condit wins, but both guys are washed up, just Condit even more so. I have no idea if McGee has the offensive takedowns required for the easy win, if it stays standing we favour Condit right? But he has absolutely no TDD, so who knows

yeah im just not even bothering with that one

I took a few bets all small for now, but just following some early market trends to get decent prices

Holm -111
Lookboonmee -125
De Randamie -125
Imavov +125
Felipe +210 (has since drifted back to that)

all on the smaller side, if the market goes nuts on any of them I may fire harder

Pena vs GDR will be an interesting striker vs grappler battle etc depends if GDR can keep it standing probably the fight im most interested in on the card along with Condit/McGee to see just how washed Condit is, like we know he's washed up as a contender but is he not UFC level anymore or just not top 15 anymore etc

She was very good before that she's a great grappler

She took time off to have a baby though and injuries etc and has been inactive

Basically it will come down to can she take GDR down at will, if yes she wins, if no she loses

i'm not betting that fight. rewatched her fight against valentina, her entries on the takedowns are so sloppy and a lot of her takedowns are just muscling girls down in the clinch, which is one thing GDR is actually okay at stopping. plus didn't GDR almost sub nunes from guard? i don't like that pena can get the exact shape of the fight she's looking for and still lose. not betting GDR though, cause despite all that I can see her getting laid on for three rounds

lol you are joking right, almost subbed nunez ffs, she got absolutely man handled and her tdd is fkn atrocious. if pena is even half the fighter she was she will ragdoll her for 3 rounds straight.

Condit looked good on the mitts, can see him winning a standup but lose to all grapplers/wrestlers.

Holm is my pick, experience and she's still relevant, she hasn't declined or anything and while Aldana looked great, who has she fought, this is a big step up.

Man, whatta nasty knee injury (Thrall) at LFA tonight. Always hard to hear such a tough guy cry like that, that knee is messed up.

Don`t understand why they don`t bring the stretcher, instead they are getting him to limp outta there.

Just horrible.

Well I can sit here and kick myself for not taking Holm at -110, -115 and even -119 or I can just finally place my bet at -125 before it goes to -160 tomorrow via casuals betting her "because she wrecked Ronda".

1.25u to win 1u