I think if Nog's chin can take a punch still he will turn Herman's lights out. Struve did it, and Nog has more power than Struve. If Herman drops Nog he needs to finish him immediately as well, as if Nog can trap him in guard Herman won't last the round with him even with Nog on the bottom.

Overall very happy with the -241 I got, feel like true line is closer to Nog -350.

Gambino looks pretty bad in the staredown pic with Brandao so happy there too, although it could just be the angle and i'm too lazy to watch the full weigh in video given my bets have already been placed for this event.

Pffft man up. Thing you have to realize is there is probably nobody in the world able to cap a fight like that. Simultaneously having knowledge of the ability of some guy from armenia and an ex champ from brazil is imposs. If you follow my minor league bets you can expect to be on a few hopeless fighters. I went 4-0 last bellator you were just on the wrong end.

Meh, I guess he's still got the ground game going for him. But he looked really soft in the middle. That compared with layoff, advancing age, the fact that he talked to Dana for a while instead of just stepping on the scale, has me a bit worried. I still think he deserves to be the favorite, but I'm not sure there's value there anymore.

My Final Plays... I think.

0.1 units on Camozzi @ +125. I wanted to bet more on this but I thought the line would be a lot better for me. That and a few of you guys have made a compelling case for betting on Cane, so instead I'll reduce my bet and take the pussy way out, support my original pick, but not very hard.

0.25 on Tibau @ -150. I think I would have bet more on this one as well except for mostly Swoop's high opinion of Trinaldo. That and he looked like a beast at the weigh-ins. So he probably handled the cut well.

2.5 on Teixeira @ -370ish. I think this is probably the best bet on the card. Maldonado frankly isn't very good and doesn't deserve a shot against Teixeira. Striking is probably a wash, but once Glover hits a takedown Maldonado is in trouble.

1 on Herman @ +275. Mainly for reasons outlined above. I think Nog looks pretty old and shot, this might be the fight where things fall apart. If this line gets better, I might add more.

0.1 on Bonnar @ +775ish. This line isn't right and there's no real value in this fight. But this is just for a sweat and the Degenerate in me can't leave odds like that alone. Especially in MMA where anything can happen.... </sarcasm>

0.1 on Parlay of Madadi, Moraes, Jason and Brandao.

@Leebert Interesting that I have the other side of all of your plays (granted at better odds in most cases) except Teixeira and the parlay plus i'm leaving the main alone. Have you seen Trinaldo fight out of curiosity? He wasn't too impressive on TUF Brazil but came in more hyped than most and his fights before and after were impressive. Basically, we know what Tibau has, and he's a gatekeeper. How bad does Trinaldo want it? If Tibau can take him down at will, Tibau will win. If not, Trinaldo is going to find his chin and put him out or win a dominant 30-27. I'm banking on the excellent TDD he showed against Heleno and while Tibau is better than Heleno, Heleno is a legit 185er and Tibau is a 155er. Trinaldo will be bigger than his opponent for the first time in a while and if he's smart will have been drilling defensive wrestling/scrambling and TDD all camp. His standup is definitely better than Tibau's. We're going to find out soon enough.

@ChrisV I know, I don't regret the pick and I think we got it in good, he was looking decent in the standup and was a dog, plus managed to scramble the first time he got taken down and get back to his feet. Let's crush the big ones tomorrow

Nog looked awful at weigh ins, might lean on Herman actually, depends how shot Hermans chin is. I think fight starts out a lot with Herman getting the best out of Nog, then Nog somehow fighting back and either finishing Herman, but if he doesn't Herman takes the decision. Or tko nog if there's nothing left in Nog.

Luiz Cane over Camozzi.
Madadi over Marcello.
Maia over Story.
Teixera over Maldonado, he should take it to the ground, increase his winning %.
Rony over Sicilia.
Gambino over Brandao, I think he's going to weather Brandaos initial storm and be able to either land on him or take him down and wear Brandao out. I think it's a flip and I'd rather go with the underdog in that case.

I heard Maia had a rough cut. Nog did look pretty rough at the weigh in. Made a few parlays with Story+Herman just in case. Can't wait for these fights. I love the Brazilian crowds! Its packed with screaming fans from the very first facebook fight to the end. American crowds should take note! Can't wait to see how crazy they go for Anderson tonight. Will be epic. That being said, I hope Bonnar can pull it out.

@Swoop not much to discuss in the Camozzi pick. I think he's a grinder that can frustrate Cane. That and he's a big Middleweight who's going to be able to control Cane inside clinches. I think he grinds a close decision, but its an odds play because I think the true line is close to flip.

The Herman pick is mostly against Nog. I don't think Herman is great by any means, but Nog almost had trouble climbing out of his clothes at weigh ins and seemed overall disinterested. I think this is the beginning of the end, I don't trust his chin much more than I trust Herman's at this point. So I'll take nearly 3-to-1 on a fight where the true line could be anywhere from -200 to a flip if Nog is as shot as he looks.

Also realizing I didn't really answer Swoop about Trinaldo. I admittedly paid little attention to Tuf: Brazil. Fast forwarding through most to the fights. I did watch him fight on the show and I saw him at the finale. I haven't seen much footage of him from before the show save for a few youtube highlight videos. Obviously I think the mediocrity he showed was due to being a Lightweight fighting Middleweights.

Ok, so, my plays:

Smart plays:

Maia 3u @ -130
Erick Silva 4.25u @ -130
Luiz Cane 1u @ -135
Drinaldo 1u @ +130

Degen plays:

The Spider 3.5u @ -900
Big Nog 3.25u @ -315
Brandao 2u @ -200

Hope it's a good night for the favorites. Also almost pulled the trigger on Moraes, Davis, and Tex, but then said nahhhh i have enough low ev lines already.

anybody see that the prelims is on same time as the payperview? atleast that what the the guide says in hawaii

4u on Jason
3u on Teixeira
3u on Maia
1.5u on Brandao
1u on E. Silva
0.75u on Cane
0.75u on Madadi
0.5u on Trinaldo
0.5u on Herman
0.5u on Prado

Was going to pound Nog, but he looked soft at weigh ins, got to be bit of value in Herman at his price. Similar reasoning for Prado, think the line is bit overstated.

Might add more on E. Silva if earlier fights go well, tempted to go big, but can't shake visions of Jon Fitch just grinding out a 29-28 type performance out of my head.

Slightly worried with all the talk of Nog looking bad at the weighins but my bet is in (and early at -241, wouldnt have taken him at worse than -300) so ride it out and hope Nog does what he does best which is win fights. He's still never lost to anyone of Herman's caliber, every loss is to guys way better than him, so hopefully he can still get it done. I'm convinced that if he can knock Schaub out standing he'll find a way to do the same to Herman, whose chin is pretty much as bad as Schaub's and whose striking is worse imo.

I added 0.5u on the under 7:30 for the Brandao fight at ~+130ish, and now I think i'm probably done for betting this card

i watched the weigh ins and i dont think nog looked that bad really. the guy never really loooked too super on the scale, although i guess a lot of people did think he looked bad as the line has now moved down to -250, making me pretty sick to my stomach about the -315 i paid ahhhh.

still dont think herman has much of a chance tho.

Just watched the nog weigh in, he's always moved a bit awkwardly, and I think hanging on to his friend was a balance thing not a weak thing. He didn't look amazing, but when he put his arms up for the staredown he looked fine. Maybe enough to move it to a no play rather than bet, but I don't think it's enough to bet Herman, remember Herman almost lost to Einemo and would have zero wins in the UFC if he had. If Nog was fighting a Mir-quality opponent i'd say bet against him but he won't lose to a guy like Herman unless Mir destroyed him mentally and he's done as a fighter.

Fair bit of late money coming in on Trinaldo, anyone know if theres a reason for it?

I'd assume it's because he's really hyped in the hardcore MMA fan world (one of the reasons im betting him along with how he looked vs heleno) but sportsbettors thought Tibau would get the casual fan money as a bigger name?

Speculation ofc

Given the late steam i'm going to add another 0.3u on Trinaldo at +125

Added a 0.01u parlay of all of my picks to win 0.35u and a 0.05u parlay of Tex/Nog/Jason/Brandao to win 0.12u just to check the prices

Thoughts on the second parlay at +231? Tempted to add a unit on it.

I have 0.75 unit on Glover/Jason/Brandao/Maia/Anderson so I'm liking it.

I might contradict myself and bet on Nogueria if the line keeps moving towards Herman as the fight approaches.

Anyone have any iPad friendly streams? In Vegas at the tables
When r prelims starting ?

prelims start any minute.

http://on.ufc.com/HBnHJd

starting now.

AND HERE WE GO

Madadi vs Marcello up first. Get us off to a good start, Madadi.

Does anyone else wish Sonnen was on this card fighting any Brazilian? He would have been a perfect replacement to fight Teixeira

This should be an amazing card anyway.

Have decided to make small 0.2u ish bets on every fight as I can't stand not betting when watching the fights. Have Madadi in the first one.

10-9 Madadi, but it's in Brazil

If Marcello doesn't tuck his chin and fast Madadi is going to put him out though