Like i want to bet DC as he seems super motivated, but the way he got pieced up and finished in the 4th last time worries me. Whats going to stop stipe from landing body shots and outclassing him? also is stipe ever not motivated? lol

if it stays striking stipe will win again imo. The main worry and path to victory for DC is he HAS to mix up his VERY good wrestling that he ****ing didnt touch the 2nd fight. DC bettors cant rely on a KO again thats just unrealistic. Stipe has a very good chin as shown against 1st round ngannou, 2nd DC fight.

i could be wrong but i think he overestimated his striking and wanted to prove he could stand with stipe. obviously looking back he should have wrestled a lot more. wrestling uses much more energy than striking, its like night and day, so maybe he was trying to keep up cardio? which would make sense as Stipe's cardio is actually amazing.

So if DC changes his gameplan to favor wrestling he definitely has the advantage. He's used it A LOT in the past at 205 with great success but we havnt seen much at HW. Its not like stipe is a huge HW and the weight differential will hurt his chances, BUT if he cant take stipe down or hold him down, its going to be a long night for DC. If he doesnt employ wrestling and it just stays a kickboxing match it much favors Stipe.

But like its actually impossible to see into DC's mind and camp and KNOW hes changing strategy, you would HAVE to assume he is....?

but without knowing that info... id probably go stipe.

Damn i capitalized a lot of words. In the end i have no idea who will win.

He was obv winning the round he got the finish in in the second fight, if I recall I had it 30-27 but would have to check, just looked and apparently it was 30-27 29-28 29-28 after 3 rounds

First fight kinda have to give the round to the guy who got the finish in it obv as if he hadn't finished the knockdown would have won the round

Feels like Stipe only clearly has one round (the one he got the finish in) and maybe two if r3 2nd fight (i'd need to rewatch it I don't remember it clearly enough)

Gone back and forth on the DC vs Stipe fight.

You watch the second fight and DC had an obvious speed advantage on the feet initially and wrestling worked early on. But he can't keep that up for 5 rounds and I don't think he can straight wrestle for 5 rounds either.

DC is 41 and I think its more likely we seen a bigger drop off then we see from Miocic. Due to the fact that he carries that extra weight on his frame that Miocic doesn't.

In the second fight as soon as Miocic found the body shots it completely changed the fight. So does DC fight fight differently will he be more apprehensive.

Really tough fight to call.

Would take 2.15 on Stipe if it keeps drifting, which seems possible given how the market is moving.

took a max bet on vera at 265 on dimes, i think o'malley will close below 250, so if that happens i'll just hedge it out at fight time.

o malley v vera = 60 40 at worst

you cant just pick and choose when you use the knockout for your argument. also 10-9 if stipe not knocked out vs 8-10 if cormier somehow survived r4 in fight 2.

regardless im glad you figured out DC didnt win every round they have fought, basically.

Right, that previous statement wasn't accurate, let me adjust it to 'DC has won more rounds than Stipe overall in their fights so far'

Got a few early spots for the card, Dvilashivli at about -190 average, DC at -110 and Pichel at -110. Pichel just a market play, I do like DC there and think hes a small fav if he mentally wants it and he seems to

Dvilashvili a friend of mine whose capping I trust thinks he's a much bigger fav so I took some early, market seems to agree obv since he's steaming. I've always been high on Dodson but he's not as good as he used to be and small for the division etc

i know people who were offering me to better than market price on dodson if they could load up on dvalishvili which tbh i don't really see. i would normally pass on that fight but i know sharp people who absolutely love merab this week. i think theres way better spots though. i will probably honestly end up on merab if the price doesn't run just cause of how confident people are. just sucks betting a -220 on a guy who doesn't really have any finishing potential.

took liviha renata souza. ashley yoder just isn't very good and she can only beat people who she can dominate grappling. souza isn't a good striker herself, but she's aggressive and that should be enough to land some decent right hands until she can take over in the grappling. yoder fades pretty hard as well. souza might too but at least i know yoder will.

wow nice call already at -259 in some books, lines getting closer like you predicted weeks ago.

Out of town this weekend so will miss it live. Placed 1u bets on Souza, Dvalishvili, Vera and Miocic and will try not to find out what happens so I can properly sweat the replay on Sunday.

Good luck all.

Fwiw I have the same info all the sharp guys I know love Merab and thats why I took him early

i like souza, jairzinho, pichel, and stipe. thats my card, with hopefully a little small arb profit on vera/o'malley

I absolutely love reading this thread from time to time.

I always want to post and contribute, but I feel like I have no f'ing clue about this sport compared to some of you. Probably because I'm such a fish at betting on this beautiful sport.

I hit for a decent parlay a year and a half ago and have been bleeding it all back since. I nailed an 11/11 for 2 grand ish on a $2 bet and thought I was king lol

I absolutely love it like you guys. I don't really care that I'm losing a bit here and there, it's so much fun. But i know I can get smarter at wagering my biscuits.

Ive bet some silly ****ing ****, and i know it, but I couldn't help it at the time. I'd just spew pick crazy parlays like a dumb monkey. Right now I'm 9/9 with 2 to go . $1.50 to win $450 . Just need JDS and D.c. But obv Stipe is going to win he's so shredded at weigh ins, wtf

I have fun losing, its not good, because losing money is bad right? haha

Thought i'd drunken ramble post a bit for shits and giggles, gl dudes

https://youtu.be/4XxNDvcWxzw

Got the chance to go on the Trademate Sports podcast and talk about this weekends card if anyone fancies a listen.

So far heavy on Vera at 3.75, also traded this market on Betfair and locked in some guaranteed money no matter the result.

Took Jim Miller at 2.16 which I think is decent.

Also played Dodson to win by KO at 6.0

Going to wake up for this one and live bet the main card later, should be a good one!

Tonight I can't pick anything that screams bet so far. I'm going to watch the whole card, look into the eye's of the fighters on the walk out and in the cage, then bet accordingly.

haha good strategy

DC v Stipe is like the best pick em 50/50 bet I've seen in a while.
I lean DC to be honest. Probably his last fight, he's said he's trained without thought regarding his back and he clearly wasn't at full 100% in the last fight. Did Stipe go to the body and slow him down, sure, but make no mistake DC was tired already going into the 3rd, which is usually never the case!

He won most rounds and while Stipe took DC down iirc it was when DC was tired late in the fight, while DC took him down early.

DC will be more prepared with the body shots but he will also be less likely to get hurt just because his cardio will be much better, plus the fact he most definitely has a plan if Stipe does start going for the body.

Stipe does look great and it's hard to bet against him, he's truly a great HW too, although I think the rematch vs Ngannou will go differently. Stipe can really take a punch but if he cllip him just right on the button, it doesn't take much, I do feel DC has the better chin in that regards but if you hit him square on the face/head, he is good to take those.

Very close but going with DC and the fairytale ending for him, he deserves it, if anybody does in the sport, he truly does, such a great guy, great ambassador for MMA.

I think O'Malley wins but it should be a lot closer imo Vera is no punk, not betting it because I still just think O'Malley wrecks him, he is a class above him but he'd should prob be 1.5~.

Anybody like Herrig? Kinda feeling she's value at 3.5, granted I've not done much work on opponent, form memory, she's a good grappler but w/e.

Theory that Miller loses because he won his last fight, don't come at me but it happens a lot! Especially with these journeymen fighters, that have just as many wins as losses, guys with 20-14 records etc, they win 1, lose the next, like clockwork!

JDS v Rozenstruik. I am leaning JDS, despite his chin issues and Rozenstruik having that ko power, that said if Struik connects it's prob nightnight. I just think JDS is a way better fighter and boxer and if he decides to take Struik down, he will be in trouble, hopefully he can dodge a few bullets, Struik is a bit too hesitant for my liking, he'd be a beast of he was way more aggro!

Merab is a beast, he should win but again I think it's no walk in the park. Dodson is elusive very fast and he does have power, it should be closer imo. I actually think Dodson is more live than Vera is.

You should post your spots, it's aways nice to read why we bet, what we see differently, end of the day it's all just opinions, don't sweat it if you are new.

What I have noticed, parlays really cost a lot more than I thought, while they are fun, I often bet too much on them, they always get me trouble, turning a profitable day into breakeven/losing day lol.

Close fight, think Souza edged it but Yoder didn't gas at all lol...

yeah other way around.

feel like i got away with one there.

One judge scored that Yoder fight 30-27. Ridiculous.

Was impressed with Kamaka in the first fight until he gassed, which was pretty damn quick. He's not going to go far taking all them hits like that tho.

jesus christ pichel made that way too hard in the third, just pick your shots when miller is gassed in rd 3 backed up on the fence

lol Dodson lifting his arms at the end, he srsly think he won that!