Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-12-2012, 04:00 AM   #5151
Swiiftx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Swiiftx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Mark it zero.
Posts: 7,991
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Bottom line is if Silva connects hard on Fitch's chin in the first round or keep it standing for 3+ minutes, Fitch is going to struggle. Erick Silva's striking is better than anyone that Fitch has beaten's striking except for *maybe* Alves (we don't know). If Fitch can land a TD in the first minute of the first two rounds, he's probably going to win.

Out of all of the fights on the card, bets aside, I want to see Erick Silva win more than anyone else so that a) we don't have to see Fitch fighting on the Main Card anymore and b) so that we have a good exciting new challenger for GSP after he's done with Condit and if he faces Anderson too at a catchweight assuming he beats Condit, the Hendricks/Kampmann winner can face E Silva for the next shot at WW or if not we get E. Silva vs Rory Mac assuming he beats Penn for the next shot after Hendricks/Kampmann winner.

For what it's worth, I think Erick Silva and Rory Mac are both more likely to beat GSP than either Hendricks or Kampmann, although Rory may not fight him.
I agree with Rory and Silva being bigger threats to GSP than Hendricks/Condit/Kampmann. I genuinely hope he becomes a wrestling gatekeeper at prelims because that's what he's good at(well I dont want to see him fight at all but he is good and deserves to be in the ufc imo). There are so many more diversified and more exciting(exciting doesn't have to be bad, just look at Rory, Velasquez, Jones etc) wrestling based guys.
Swiiftx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 04:42 AM   #5152
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

Exactly - even Sonnen who is basically a pure wrestler attempts to finish, Fitch doesn't even try to land or improve his position most of the time with the only notable exception being against Penn and that was because he thought (correctly) that he needed a 10-8 to not lose the fight. If Fitch fought every round like R3 against Penn, people wouldn't complain about him being boring, he only has himself to blame, and he IS the most boring fighter in the UFC bar none.

Also re: Moraes/Forte idk what you're talking about the fight being bad, Moraes brought it on the finale against Mutante and Forte/Sarafian was a good fight on TUF even if Forte got finished.

I can't wait to see Sarafian debut, he's the guy who should have won the show and he needs to face Mutante ASAP for the real title of TUF Brazil 1 winner.

Lot of guys I like off that show, Hugo Wolverine should be a boss at BW or even FLW (too small for FW), Rony has potential once he gets over UFC debut jitters hopefully this fight (he was good on the show, but the finale vs Pepey sucked because both guys were afraid to lose), Thiago Bodao Perpetuo was awesome on the show, Daniel Sarafian was a boss, Mutante is Belfort's protege and won it after Sarafian got injured, Moraes will be a gatekeeper to the mid level and Trinaldo has the potential to make a splash at LW and/or WW. Best season of TUF talent wise since at least season 5 and potentially season 1 tbh.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 05:58 AM   #5153
Swiiftx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Swiiftx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Mark it zero.
Posts: 7,991
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Exactly - even Sonnen who is basically a pure wrestler attempts to finish, Fitch doesn't even try to land or improve his position most of the time with the only notable exception being against Penn and that was because he thought (correctly) that he needed a 10-8 to not lose the fight. If Fitch fought every round like R3 against Penn, people wouldn't complain about him being boring, he only has himself to blame, and he IS the most boring fighter in the UFC bar none.

Also re: Moraes/Forte idk what you're talking about the fight being bad, Moraes brought it on the finale against Mutante and Forte/Sarafian was a good fight on TUF even if Forte got finished.

I can't wait to see Sarafian debut, he's the guy who should have won the show and he needs to face Mutante ASAP for the real title of TUF Brazil 1 winner.

Lot of guys I like off that show, Hugo Wolverine should be a boss at BW or even FLW (too small for FW), Rony has potential once he gets over UFC debut jitters hopefully this fight (he was good on the show, but the finale vs Pepey sucked because both guys were afraid to lose), Thiago Bodao Perpetuo was awesome on the show, Daniel Sarafian was a boss, Mutante is Belfort's protege and won it after Sarafian got injured, Moraes will be a gatekeeper to the mid level and Trinaldo has the potential to make a splash at LW and/or WW. Best season of TUF talent wise since at least season 5 and potentially season 1 tbh.
Fitch has that style of laying in someones full guard, his head on their chest and then pawing at their head to keep the ref from standing them up. He's the closest thing of a leach in human form, cling on to someone as tightly as possible and just hold them

It's probably because they choose fighters based on their skill level and in the USA they choose them on their personality.
Swiiftx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 06:40 AM   #5154
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

In all seriousness there are 4 fighters that came off that season of TUF that theoretically may one day challenge for a title - Wolverine at BW, Sarafian at MW, Trinaldo at LW and Rony at FW. Potentially even Mutante at MW as well if he matures as a fighter - I think in two years time all of these guys plus Bodao will all still be in the UFC, 6 good fighters coming off one season of the show is pretty solid - Pepey and Moraes and Forte all have a chance to have a .50+ record in the UFC too. Anyone who hasn't season season 1 of TUF brazil really needs to watch it (PM me if you can't find a link)
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:52 AM   #5155
leebert
journeyman
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 247
Re: MMA Thread

Re: Moraes and Forte

You could be right that the fight is highly entertaining, but I still think you've got two guys with relatively lackluster striking, neither of which wants the fight to be standing trying to get the fight to the ground quickly. Where one guy is way better than the other. I could be wrong, and these guys throw caution to the wind fighting in front of their home crowd, potentially for their jobs.

You're right about the talent level on the show. But it's the first season of TUF in that area, and I think the skill level was comparable to that of the first couple seasons of TUF in the States, where as now they're looking for guys who will move the ratings needle, not necessarily guys who will be future UFC champs.

What will be more interesting is if they do a Comeback season of TUF, but they expand it to the entire world. Some of the guys that maybe didn't make the UFC, or that made it but were cut from the worldwide shows. They could even consider doing 4 teams instead of only two. North America, Brazil, Europe and Australia, Asia. That would be boss.
leebert is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:58 AM   #5156
mulebennett
old hand
 
mulebennett's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Sports betting
Posts: 1,886
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
On the same side of all of it except I have Trinaldo instead of Tibau. If the Tibau who fought Nurmagomedov fights the Trinaldo who fought Heleno, then Trinaldo will take it easily with aggression and TDD. If it's the Trinaldo who lost to Bodao from TUF, then he'll lose, but he was fighting 2 weight classes above where he was supposed to. He should be better at LW and if he is, Tibau's in trouble imo.
Well that's good except Tibau is my biggest play... yikes.
mulebennett is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 12:12 PM   #5157
Machinehead
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 4,051
Re: MMA Thread

leebert, I don't think anyone would have a problem with you linking your write-ups. Back in the day we used to have a Performify and Humungus post a link to their write-ups for the events and everyone loved it. Their write-ups were gambling based and yours isn't but I don't think that makes too much of a difference.
Machinehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 04:58 PM   #5158
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by mulebennett View Post
Well that's good except Tibau is my biggest play... yikes.
Gl I guess, Trinaldo is one of my smaller plays, but I still definitely like him here at a + price, I think the fight is something like 55/45 Trinaldo if I had to handicap it.

Trinaldo in to +126 fwiw, every single line I bet on this card has moved far enough in my favour that I could arb it off to break even or profit, feeling really confident.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 05:26 PM   #5159
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

Added a unit on Erick Silva (spreadsheet ftw please!) and half unit on each of Texeira and Madadi

In order of bet size

5u - Maia, Nog
3.5u - Brandao, Bezerra
2.5u - Cane
1.1u - Madadi
1u - E. Silva
1u - Trinaldo
0.5u - Teixiera
0.45u - Prado

No bet: Silva/Bonnar, Moraes/Forte

Honestly expecting to go 7/10+ a lot here and i'd be surprised if I get less than 6.

Edit: Also added 0.5u on U 7m 30sec for Nog/Herman.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 10-12-2012 at 05:34 PM.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 05:29 PM   #5160
Jdwarriors5
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,716
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Added a unit on Erick Silva (spreadsheet ftw please!) and half unit on each of Texeira and Madadi

In order of bet size

5u - Maia, Nog
3.5u - Brandao, Bezerra
2.5u - Cane
1.1u - Madadi
1u - E. Silva
1u - Trinaldo
0.5u - Teixiera
0.45u - Prado

No bet: Silva/Bonnar, Moraes/Forte
Tailing these. Let's goooo Swoop
Jdwarriors5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 06:36 PM   #5161
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jdwarriors5 View Post
Tailing these. Let's goooo Swoop
Good luck. I feel like this is an above average card for betting.

E. Silva is ChrisV's pick that i'm tailing fwiw, I really want him to win, his database seems to like Silva though so hopefully it can hold.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 07:20 PM   #5162
ChrisV
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ChrisV's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 40,378
Re: MMA Thread

Bellator 76 is on atm and my guy Akop Stepanyan is up in a few fights. Come on you big Armenian bastard.

Late money is coming down on him, I got +150 and you can't do better than +135 now. If you're sitting on the fence about betting him, ask yourself this: would you like to see this guy get beaten up?

Spoiler:


If, like me, the answer is "yes", then follow me to victory.
ChrisV is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 07:47 PM   #5163
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

in for a unit on the tail. gl us
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 07:48 PM   #5164
Erratik
grinder
 
Erratik's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 681
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
Bellator 76 is on atm and my guy Akop Stepanyan is up in a few fights. Come on you big Armenian bastard.

Late money is coming down on him, I got +150 and you can't do better than +135 now. If you're sitting on the fence about betting him, ask yourself this: would you like to see this guy get beaten up?

Spoiler:


If, like me, the answer is "yes", then follow me to victory.
on it. parlayed him with alverez.
Erratik is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:01 PM   #5165
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

I'm lost on the time zones how long from now until the facebook prelims start?
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:05 PM   #5166
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

i'm guessing 40 mins? watching bellator now, hopefully chrisv's database has it right again
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:19 PM   #5167
Swiiftx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Swiiftx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Mark it zero.
Posts: 7,991
Re: MMA Thread

Interviewer at bellator is a joe rogan lookalike.
Swiiftx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:28 PM   #5168
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

looking at their records and the prelim video im liking stepanyan more and more. seems like a typical up and comer vs past his prime former champ type fight
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:39 PM   #5169
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,038
Re: MMA Thread

Well that went badly. Sick non-tap for ages though our guy had some heart even if it was probably risky/stupid. A good reminder to myself on why I don't bet on unknown Bellator fighters. Ah well. As long as Erick Silva wins your database is forgiven :P
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:39 PM   #5170
Swiiftx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Swiiftx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Mark it zero.
Posts: 7,991
Re: MMA Thread

Yeah, he really didn't want to tap.
Swiiftx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 08:57 PM   #5171
Swiiftx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Swiiftx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Mark it zero.
Posts: 7,991
Re: MMA Thread

Thought he'd never stop it, the referee....
Swiiftx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 09:25 PM   #5172
DjSkyy
veteran
 
DjSkyy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: No longer, strictly speaking, busto
Posts: 2,735
Re: MMA Thread

hey do u guys know if ufc tomorrow is on at the regular time? i noticed the weigh ins today were a bit early.
DjSkyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 10:00 PM   #5173
Erratik
grinder
 
Erratik's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 681
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
A good reminder to myself on why I don't bet on unknown Bellator fighters.

One of my guilty pleasures. Never seems to work out though, lol. Still have a live parlay that Alvarez needs to complete.

Im guessing the UFC prelims start around 5pm est tomorrow judging by the weigh in time today..

GO AMERICAN PSYCHO!!
Erratik is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2012, 10:12 PM   #5174
Erratik
grinder
 
Erratik's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 681
Re: MMA Thread

Eddie Alvarez. Badman.
Erratik is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2012, 12:12 AM   #5175
leebert
journeyman
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 247
Re: MMA Thread

Just watched the weigh-in videos after getting in from a night out.

Trinaldo looks massive, probably going to be bigger than Tibau come fight night and doesn't look like he struggled with the cut at all. That could be a very interesting fight indeed.

Also, is it just me or did Big Nog look pretty soft in the middle. Maybe it's just me but I don't think he looks good at all. Definitely doesn't look like he's ready to fight three hard rounds, (doubtful the fight lasts that long.)

And in regards to weigh ins, how the hell does Anderson look so similar when weighing in at 205 and 185. Where the hell is that extra 20 pounds? They showed a comparison of him side by side himself, from the Sonnen fight and today on MMAMania I think it was. Barely a difference. Crazy. Bonnar is a big boy though. Might post some last minute thoughts tomorrow.

Good luck to everyone's bets.
leebert is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:59 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive