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Old 07-15-2020, 11:40 PM   #51651
SwoopAE
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Re: MMA Thread

Someone on Betfair wanted 2k @ 34 bucks on Stamann just before the cards were read

If I had 68k on Betfair and any faith in judges.. lol

I guess the rounds were close enough we see a robbery more than 1 in 34 times even though Rivera won all 3 rounds
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:41 PM   #51652
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Re: MMA Thread

How on earth is this next fight the co-main over Rivera/Stamann given their records lol

I guess it'll be fun all Elliott fights are but still
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:00 AM   #51653
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Re: MMA Thread

Wow thats a very close r1 in Elliott/Benoit

Benoit landed the better shots but Elliott landed a bunch of weak kicks from range + got the takedown and GnP shot at the end no idea how to score it

I added some o3 rounds for the main @ -118 to go w my o2.5 rounds
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:02 AM   #51654
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Re: MMA Thread

Consensus seems to be Benoit got r1, think I agree, but not sure all judges always do etc

Elliott needs to shoot and commit w more time left in round
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:05 AM   #51655
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Re: MMA Thread

Wow, close kneebar

This is gonna be another tough round to score, Benoit won the standup, but then got mounted and nearly choked out, then nearly gets a kneebar, then Elliott gets minor GnP

No idea how the judges would be seeing this
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:06 AM   #51656
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Re: MMA Thread

Hmm those elbows at the end of the round, I think I have it 19-19 with Benoit winning r1 and Elliott edging r2 but no idea could be anything
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:07 AM   #51657
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Someone on Betfair wanted 2k @ 34 bucks on Stamann just before the cards were read

If I had 68k on Betfair and any faith in judges.. lol

I guess the rounds were close enough we see a robbery more than 1 in 34 times even though Rivera won all 3 rounds
I try to handicap scorecards by assigning probabilities for each round but it seems impossible when you constantly see 30-27, 28-29, 28-29
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:08 AM   #51658
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Re: MMA Thread

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where do you guys bet live?
Bet DSI for me but I`m sure there are better books
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:13 AM   #51659
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Re: MMA Thread

Weird fight, Benoit landing the better shots every round but Elliott outlanding him in raw strike numbers and had the better of the grappling

I have no idea how to score this, no complaints either way depends what judges want

I think i'd have it for Benoit personally but hope Elliott gets it anything from 30-27 to 27-30 is possible here market has Benoit a small fav to get the nod
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:16 AM   #51660
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Re: MMA Thread

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I try to handicap scorecards by assigning probabilities for each round but it seems impossible when you constantly see 30-27, 28-29, 28-29
I mean I do too, but i'd be scared to bet on what judges are thinking in any close round

Elliott gets the UD which is somewhat surprising but you can make a pretty good case he won 2-3, 3 is weird he massively outlanded Benoit but also ate all of the power shots in the round

Round 2 too, how do you score a close kneebar vs a close choke, I assume that's a wash, then full mount + some gnp vs winning the standup by a moderate margin etc
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:43 AM   #51661
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Re: MMA Thread

Nice round from Ige, 19-19 after Kattar took the first imo but closeish think Ige got 2nd

Let's see round 4 then I can cheer for Ige
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:50 AM   #51662
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Re: MMA Thread

Ok overs done

I still lose for card but only a unit or so now, and maybe slightly less if Ige gets the dec sadly not that big on it @ +600 but hes in this

I have it 29-28 Kattar after 2 but r3 close etc

Ige looks a full weight class smaller, feels like he could probably make 135 if he wanted to where he wouldn't always be the smaller guy
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:55 AM   #51663
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Re: MMA Thread

Probably 3-1 Kattar, although it's possibly it could be 2-2 on two judges cards doubt it though

At least I took the overs for a lot more than Ige, and given what we've seen +250 seems reasonable, Kattar's size advantage helping him a lot, he looks more like a -180 fav or so on what we've seen so far id say than -250 or more
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:28 AM   #51664
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Re: MMA Thread

I don’t think that was a super competitive matchup in the end even though some rounds were close
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Old 07-16-2020, 02:18 AM   #51665
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Re: MMA Thread

Swoop, I meant to add that I had Stamman at < 1%, but I don't remember exactly how I had it scored.

Didn't track the rest of my bets cuz it was getting ugly, but I did win a decent amount back on elliot, and then lost 2.5u on Kattar.

Disappointed I didnt get more down on Talia when she hit +190, but oh well.

Probably lost all of the Ribas/Usman $$ back today.
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Old 07-16-2020, 11:33 AM   #51666
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Re: MMA Thread

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Last edited by Balla Shusher; 07-16-2020 at 11:52 AM.
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:56 PM   #51667
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Re: MMA Thread

keep Masvidal away from Usman no?
need a circle pattern of 1,2 fights and head back to that mountain and also hopefully even some of Usmans mountain can get chopped down a little, its like pacman vs money.

money when pacman looked like he could get thrown in there with heavyweights and win (v hatton) that was a no go zone.

running back in there has no fresh spruce to it only r1 was like r1..

you think you can go away and come back to deliver a Roberto Duran WBC welterweight defeating Sugar Ray Leonard performance, that's picture perfect for at least 4 rounds situation at least let your foe age another fight whilst you in turn get some more time to figure it out and ideally get a nice W some place entertaining ultra


conor against masvidal would be like a progression of the BMF belt space time continuum, a lot of grit and grip on that canvas and air, both guys so experienced and tricky it would captivate, PLUS conor will talk **** no end, there would be a battle of whos drink is the best lol

Conor thinks he would beat Masvidal so past Nate who he 101% thinks he would win, Masvidal would make sense, plus historically it would be a fight every one inside and outside any place would look and go oh yeah that good guy Masvidal with the tidy movement and vicious blows, yeah I want to see that.

conor has got such a sales mouth, he could ramp up millions of buys getting lerry (loud) against the local school dinner lady or lollypop man :-)

Usman needs to fight some one as physically powerful and dangerous in striking, Masvidal needs some to be cruel to be kind situation, a 1, 2, fight circle coming back around.

If a river or lake is frozen over, don't try to crack into it , leave it a while and see if you can come back when its melted a little.

Let one or two other dudes get in their and smash him up and do some damage and then head back when the road is a little more worn

Masvidal would also profit by getting to see even more of this movement and building a strat, Masvidal is cerebral so time away from that front, whilst generating the revenue and keeping busy would be a win win for every one.

Last edited by Balla Shusher; 07-16-2020 at 01:01 PM.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:43 PM   #51668
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Re: MMA Thread

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2u Lazzez live -170 after r1.
My bookmaker must have screwed up but I hit Lazzez during the opening flurry of him backed against the fence eating shots (although smiling) at +850. Must have been an error but I'll take it

Btw I think Lazzez in his post fight interview saved Mike Perry's career. Without the call out it's hard to imagine the UFC wanting to book Perry after his recent ko of old man followed by a racist drunken rant.
TBH he was sauced up really good and he did warn the old guy ahead of time and the racist rant was probably not at his core but just a lashing out method due to drunken stupidity. Not saying it's ok to conduct yourself like that but I think Perry is like a modern day Chris Leban... he needs mental help and losing his UFC career isn't going to help him in the least.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:48 PM   #51669
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Re: MMA Thread

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Lazzez def better than I thought he would be, not sold on him against high level opponents though
Looked pretty on his feet and decent wrestling but his ground game needs a lot of work imo. He had side mount 3-4 times during the fight and didn't throw a punch and looked like he didn't know what to do. Imagine him on his back with that problem.
But on the plus side he's from the region where the UFC has hardly any fighters... he can speak English and seems to have some charisma.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:52 PM   #51670
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Re: MMA Thread

Another winning night for me last night after a really good night Saturday.

Thanks to all ITT for adding their insights. I know nothing about MMA, but have started following this thread and placing micro bets (1u = $10 for me) since mid-May.

I've been heavily weighing what gets posted in this thread, but throwing in some of my own bets occasionally. Long story short, when this thread has a consensus pick it seems to be pretty good value and have lower variance than my silly hunches based on limited info.

Here's my results since mid-May:

16-May 6.075
30-May 1.74
6-Jun -6.975
13-Jun 4.586
20-Jun -5.85
27-Jun -4.85
11-Jul 7.784
15-Jul 2.398

Total +4.9u

Almost enough to pay for one PPV sub - lol. Still, it's been great to have the sweat and enjoy reading the takes of everyone on here.
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Old 07-16-2020, 02:41 PM   #51671
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Balla Shusher View Post
keep Masvidal away from Usman no?
need a circle pattern of 1,2 fights and head back to that mountain and also hopefully even some of Usmans mountain can get chopped down a little, its like pacman vs money.
I think this is just a very bad stylistic matchup for Masvidal. Kind of like Conor vs Khabib.

The only chance Conor and Masvidal have vs. Khabib and Usman respectively is if they give them last night's ref who would stand 'em up within 30 seconds every time lol

These bad stylistic matchups are where the $$$ is bettingwise, but from the spectator point of view, I'd rather see some excellent slugfests like Conor vs. Masvidal, so I am kinda torn.
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Old 07-16-2020, 02:42 PM   #51672
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Re: MMA Thread

Nice find on Lazzez. I think the +850 was just an error in judgment. In a vacuum the line is understandable (depending on exactly when you got it). A -300 fighter just dominated the first 1-2 min of the round. Before Lazzez got out of it, it seemed like a good chance for a KO, and a very likely 10-9 round for Alhassan.

I wish I had seen a line like that but my feed is too slow to bet mid-round.
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Old 07-16-2020, 03:33 PM   #51673
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by AALegend View Post
I think this is just a very bad stylistic matchup for Masvidal. Kind of like Conor vs Khabib.

The only chance Conor and Masvidal have vs. Khabib and Usman respectively is if they give them last night's ref who would stand 'em up within 30 seconds every time lol

These bad stylistic matchups are where the $$$ is bettingwise, but from the spectator point of view, I'd rather see some excellent slugfests like Conor vs. Masvidal, so I am kinda torn.
Khabib vs. Usman =
Conor vs. Masvidal =

Last edited by Balla Shusher; 07-16-2020 at 03:43 PM.
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Old 07-16-2020, 08:16 PM   #51674
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Re: MMA Thread

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Depends on where Whittaker is at mentally but at his best hes a big fav over Till imo
yea i agree. the man beat romero twice.
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Old 07-17-2020, 12:06 PM   #51675
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Re: MMA Thread

catch me on benavidez this weekend at this price. i don't trust figuereido to consistently win rounds based on his activity and i don't trust him to have the gas to win 4+5 so it's an easy bet imo. hes definitely liable to land something big and shut the lights off but the price is way too wide imo, even though joey b's striking has gotten so bad and predictable. it's not like figgy is indestructable either. iirc moraga dropped him in the first round and joe hits hard. took diakese too, i think fiziev is just going to struggle with his athleticism and physicality. have bets on johns, narimani, and ramos. think those are too wide. got hermansson as a slight dog.

Last edited by Joe Pulaski; 07-17-2020 at 12:13 PM.
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