i'm on hooker, not bombing it or anything but i think it should be closer.

disagree with this, how many times has hooker been put away? I think just once by tko (bodyshot), that was a long time ago, he's been subd a few times but also many moons ago.

Think this fight goes the distance a ton, both are pretty technical, can def see this going the distance and I agree it's much closer to a 50/50 fight.

Betting Hooker for sure!

Big step up? Not really imo, he beat Felder, Al, Gilbert Burns, top level guys as well.

It's his biggest fight for sure and prob his biggest test but those fighters he's faced arent nothing to be sneezed at.

Poirier is a good fighter but lets not pretend he's some Khabib type world beater.

Hooker got a massive reach advantage, as well as height, it's always harder to hit upwards, Hooker fights very smart and uses his reach to his advantage, I can see him winning for sure.

At first glance I was thinking this was close to 50-50 because in my mind Hooker is in a good camp and he's constantly improving but frankly he didn't look as good as I expected vs Felder. Media members had Felder winning that fight by a 3 to 1 margin. Fans had Felder winning by a 2 to 1 margin.

Dustin Poirier is most certainly a step up from the likes of Felder, Al Iaquinta and LW Burns. Poirier just doesn't lose very often at all. In the last 7 years he's only lost 3 times and those losses came to Khabib, Conor, and Michael Johnson. Poirier beat the brakes off Alvarez twice, stopped Gaethje, and beat the **** out of Holloway. Hell, he's also the last guy to beat Ferreira. Felder, Iaquinta, and LW Burns have all faced weaker competition and still lose more often than Poirier.

To reasonably expect this fight to be 50/50 you have to have reason to believe that Poirier has fallen off some.

No one looks comfortable fighting Felder, Hooker got hit bit too much in the later rounds but DP is not much better than Felder. Dustin is more precise and have good boxing skills, but I can see Hooker using long reach attacking legs slowing Dustin in later rounds. Durability most likely a big factor in this fight, I will bet Hooker at +180/+190 odds if we get here.

Another important consideration is motivation. Hooker obviously has a lot of it as he's on the rise whereas Porier may or may not have it based on historical data of prior fighters whom have had their crack at the can and fell short. Some guys get more motivated while others learn to accept that they aren't going to be a champ. Look at Woodley's performance against Burns or even against Usman. It's like he doesn't give a care anymore.

Not saying Porier is in that group but it's possible whereas there is no chance that Hooker isn't working as hard as possible for this fight.

I think Hooker is the value side, especially with Poirer coming off a disappointing loss to Khabib.

At his best then Poirer probably warrants these odds but in what is likely going to be a back and forth war I would be happier to be on at 2.8-3.0 range.

i think dustin is far too good to lose to hooker. will he finish hooker? i think it goes to judges, actually just saw its 5 rounds so maybe dustin TKO, but dustin is technically better 100%

I was curious about tracing the UFC 1 open weight title to see where it would lead and it turns out the title is still active as no one retired with the title before losing it.


Royce Gracie
Sakuraba
Igor Vovchanchyn
Mark Coleman
Antonio Nogueira
Fedor (2003)
Werdum (2010)
Overeem
Antonio Silva
Cain Velazquez
Werdum (2015)
Stipe Miocic
Daniel Cormier
Stipe Miocic



So that means if Daniel Cormier defeats Stipe then the UFC 1 open weight world championship will be defunct! This cannot be allowed to happen! Dana should sneak something into Cormier's water, imo.

I mean if DC wins as much as he's said he's retiring and so on, a Jones title fight at HW has to be a possibility, Jones thinks of it as an easy fight and chance to be a dual weight champ (much lower risk for him than Ngannou due to style mu) and Cormier would jump at a chance to avenge his two losses to his most hated opponent

Granted Jones may end up retiring or leaving the UFC over the pay stuff but I doubt it and DC might retire but it's a possibility

You'd think the UFC would slip a champions clause into the rubber match that DC has to defend the belt at least once if he wins it surely before vacating it after what happened with GSP at MW, I know if I was Dana i'd want Ngannou as champ because a HW champ who sleeps people in 20 seconds and looks like a greek god has a legit chance at becoming a much bigger draw than either Stipe or DC so if i'm gonna make Stipe vs DC 3 I want to make damn sure that DC doesn't win the belt half the time then retire with it, you want him to fight Jones or Ngannou if he wins it for the HW belt surely

I know i'm personally more excited for a Ngannou fight than any other fighter at HW currently. I enjoyed the DC vs Stipe rivalry but the rubber match only really matters if DC isn't retiring win or lose, I guess it's nice to give him a chance to go out on top or let Stipe officially win the rivalry before moving onto the next contender but Stipe fights so infrequently lately you want to make that Ngannou rematch at some point surely (Ngannou and Jones are the only two interesting contenders at HW atm really)

No such clause exists. They can't force DC to fight again. Dana's view is that if a fighter is considering retiring, he probably should retire. DC retiring with the belt means absolutely nothing to the future of the HW division. If DC retires with the belt then they immediately book Ngannou for a HW Championship fight. It's not a big deal whatsoever.

As for the UFC 1 Open Weight Championship, that's pretty fun. Maybe DC will retire with that belt and then come out of retirement at the age of 55 and drop it to Tito Ortiz or Mariusz Pudzianowski or whoever's still on Bellator's roster in the year 2034.

Tito does seem like the sort of fighter we'll see fighting in whatever the Bellator equivalent is in 15 years time probably against Rampage or Chael Sonnen or Wanderlei or whatever when they're all pushing 60

Funnily enough he's won 5 of his last 6 right now... and he's about to have only lost once in the last 8 years in a couple weeks time

During his 1-1-8 streak from 2006-2012 he basically fought 10 ranked fighters in their prime

I feel like in 1-2 years time we're going to see Ngannou as the dominant HW champ regardless of what path we take to get there. He's 4 years younger than Stipe and 8 years younger than DC, the longer the fight takes to happen the more likely it is for Ngannou to win

Why not let Ngannou avenge his loss to Derrick Lewis in the meantime? That is a fight at HW people would want to see. Compared to anything else atleast...

I'd love to see Derrick Lewis put an end to the hype train but I'm not sure UFC brass would be so keen on that.

Ngannou is on the shelf until 3 months after DC/Miocic for his TS. Avenging the loss is ok but not really needed because Ngannou has moved way ahead of Lewis.

Here's the bad news for the UFC.
Lewis Knocks him out.
They have a repeat of that horrendous bore fest.
Either could very happen and either scenario is a TS killer which can't happen from the UFC perspective.

That fight would be far more interesting if Ngannou was champ and Lewis worked his way back into the championship picture with some new quality wins under his belt. As it stands right now Lewis has won 2 in a row vs unranked fighters. Previous to that he was dominated by JDS (#5) and DC (#1) and previous to those losses he needed a hail mary to beat Volkov (#8).

Ngannou is at least a -500 fav vs Lewis and only because it's HW and anything can happen in a rematch

Got some Zalal -110 early, got a couple others i'm looking at but thats it so far for this weekend's card

Found some Mike Perry TKO and Mike Perry TKO or SUB +100 and -104 respectively and got on

Pretty happy with that and Zalal -110 so far

Good chance i'll get on a few others will figure out what. I like Gall, and as a fan would love for him to submit Perry but his striking seems let's say not good and think he just gets wrecked standing usually

Ended up re maxing it a ton and getting an enormous amount on Perry TKO or SUB and Perry TKO mix at -118 average - not like he'll attempt any subs on Gall so same thing effectively

Absolutely insane vs market and I really like it, think Gall is out of his depth here and it's at a hugely arbable price if I decide I want any Perry dec or Gall sub or whatever

^ Just wondering what you think about Perry vs Gall over 1.5 at 2.09? Could Gall hold Perry of for a couple of rounds?

weird how the markets vary.
at Twin River
perry by TKO/KO/DQ -190
by decision +500
by submission +2500

Blue Horseshoe loves Mickey Gall

Also agree Hooker is undervalued, I'm on him too.

I feel like we overrate these tall lanky dudes in general, especially when they don't have high level striking or great athleticism.

You can justify picking them every single fight because they are taller with a longer reach and are naturally bigger human beings.

Not sure why you’re so crazy about Perry. If Gall gets him down it’s over.

This group has won me money over the years and I'd like to try and share my opinion on how the main event finishes and hopefully fatten the pockets

Long story short DP by Sub!! After the Khabib fight DP would have been training exclusively wrestling imo He has a clear path to victory with wrestling and I see him using it