yeah was gonna bomb blaydes but the market moved pretty sharply imo. think i like gillian. obviously she's not a good striker but casey is easy as hell to take down. can gillian be subbed from the bottom? mayra bueno silva certainly did, but shes also fairly dangerous from the top unlike mara borella. i'll always pick the girl who's going to most likely end up on top at -113. i was hoping lyman good would have stayed higher but i'm still probably betting him at 107. belal is good but he's definitely struggled with big powerful hitters. those are just my early leans, lots of interesting spots imo.

prob on burgos too. he gets hit a lot which isn't good vs. emmett but i think he's just a better fighter overall. length, pace, jab, and bodywork should give emmett problems if he doesn't get hit with something big early. his super tight fight with kattar has certainly aged well.

Agree with you on Burgos and Robertson those were both my initial leans when I scanned through the card.

Like you say though Emmett can crack and Burgos striking defence isn't the best. Don't mind Burgos by decision at 4.1.

Lauren Murphy was another one that stood out at 2.25, might still be some value at 2.0 but unless it drifts out again to around that range I won'tget involved. Probably quite likely to drift on fight day given Modafferi is coming off that Barber win.

yeah probably extra value from murphy for sure with moda coming off that "win". dunno how good she is tho, both girls pretty old and have up and down records.

modafferi def loses against barber if she doesnt turn her ACL into mincemeat early in the fight. freak injuries man.

Ended up taking Murphy at 2.0 looks like that line might flip.

Aligning with others here, I really like Burgos with his jab and reach. He's bigger, stronger and has more volume imo. He's got a great chin too. Think it goes to dec a lot and like that price, will bet him str up as well as a small prop by dec

I like Good too. Similar story as above, Lyman proved to be too much for Encountre who tried to wrestle him but to no avail, I don't see why Belal will be successful in this fight. He's smaller, big reach disadvantage and to top things off Lyman is a dog in this fight. Easy bet and small prop by dec as well.

The fight I disagree with is Torres vs Van Buren. I tihnk the line is off and it's closer to a 60-40 or 55/45 in favor of Buren. This doesn't sway me enough to bet Torres though, I think the bet is Van buren by dec at 1.72.

I initially was leaning Torres and thought her size advantage would be significant, turns out they are about the same in height but Buren has a 2 inch reach over Torres.

But what sways it for me, I think Van Buren is faster, more aggressive for sure. I think Torres waits around too much and fights for money not the win (imo), she doesn't give it her all, I've seen it time and time again. She is 1 of those fighters that holds back so much, you think she can do another 5 rounds right after. This means she doesn;t take advantage of the time in the cage, I feel she can go much harder but she never does.

Blaydes in the distance at 1.5, 25 minutes to find a finish. I don't see Blaydes ever losing tbh but dec some of time, still think itd is the bet.

Some smaller bets on
Green
Robertson
Piechota
Roberts
Pennington

Does anyone here bet the Submission Underground events? Where do you bet it?

It seems like a very limited number of books offer odds. MyBookie appears to be promoted for SUG 15, but all the matches are listed with the same start time and it's not possible to parlay them. Not convenient if I wanna throw a limited amount of cash on a new site and have a handful of fights I really like.

I’m off Burgos, price ran too high

Ended up taking Burgos, Barrialt, Pennington, Good, Murphy and Rohskopf

I lean Camacho and think Casey looked good at weigh ins but won't fire either unless they start to steam, and Camacho missing weight is a concern for his cardio maybe although he's so much bigger than his opponent he should win easily

Sort of like Torres too she's been fed to the upper tier of the division but don't know anything about Van Buren really

Might talk myself into Casey and Torres, we'll see.

I think Blaydes probably wins the main via hulk smash but not touching that price

I had to take Volkov at +310, I know Werdun managed to take him down multiple times, but he survived with a BJJ World Champion on top of him and kept getting back up. Two ranked fighters in the highest luck division, gotta take +310 even though I suspect he will be elbowed from the top KOed.

Van Buren is pretty good. Way more athletic than Torres, hoping that price comes down a bit. Not hitting it above 200 but would be interested at -175. Huge athleticism gap which is so important at women’s 115. Taking Hubbard too, the other guy is just too green.

I generally have a lot of admiration for your plays, but I differ on Murphy getting it done.

I think there are many scenarios where she simply doesn't prevail: eg. on the ground.

Good luck, nevertheless.

Tempted by Hubbard too. Rohskopf taking this fight on short notice and apparently coming off an injury.

reneau interests me too, think she can win 2 rounds if she can stay off the mat.

Wow never seen a fighter do that, why his coach not called it.

I hate coaches like that, absolute scum of the scum, not listening to the athlete! How many times did he say call it, I want to stop!

How many times did that piece of **** coach say no?? Lucky the ref stepped in!

Coaches like that guy should be banned from coaching! They are a hazard and potential threat to a young athlete life!

Yeah he should have stopped it no doubt.
Just sending a lamb to slaughter if a fighter wants out same with Pennington when she fought Nunes

The media members voting for the MMA rankings suck. When a champion loses, they seem to default to being the #1 contender. This makes no sense.

Tyron Woodley received one of the worst beatings in championship history and he was still #1. Now he got dominated again, and he has fallen to #4. How can anyone in their right mind say that he is better than Leon Edwards or Wonderboy right now? Makes no sense.

Robert Whitaker had a nice run but does anyone think he is the #1 contender really? If Costa and Whitaker were to fight Costa would be the favorite. Costa would be less of an underdog to Adesanya then Whitaker. Frankly, Costa would have more favorable odds than Whitaker vs all of the top contenders. Costa is the clear #1, and it makes more sense anyways because nobody wants to see Whitaker vs Adesanya 2 right now (just as noone wanted to see Woodley vs Usman 2).

On paper it makes sense Jessica Andrade is the #1 contender, but in reality I think most people, myself included, view Rose Namajunes as the top contender in the division. Again, how the fights went down matters. Rose was picking Andrade apart and then Andrade caught her with an unlikely slam. Then Adrade got blown out of the water by Weili (although if she had been dominated for 5 rounds that would look worse for Andrade IMO).

I'm also not really understanding Moraes above Sterling or Yan. Moraes did beat Sterling at the end of 2017 but today I gotta favor Sterling in that fight.

I also didn't really like Jessica Eye at #1, but that women's flyweight division is just kind of wack without any true threat to challenge Valentina.

Should be 2-0 here unless there is some crazy robbery

I understand him trying to pump his guy up but after that has clearly failed the coach has to call the fight. Also, just makes his fighter look bad to the fans and more importantly UFC brass.

I think the optimal play would have been to try for a takedown attempt early in round 3 and if that fails then throw in the towel.

Think Murphy took that 1!

Bamm!!!

Ground game -- negated
Roxanne -- deflated
Swoop -- highly rated

Big difference in pumping/pepping a fighter up and completely missing/disregarding when his fighter calls for help!

It's just terrible coaching and shows a huge lack of experience/lack of professionalism on the coach's part!

Part of being a good coach is listening and knowing when to either step in and protect your fighter (in case the fighter is too stubborn to quit) and/or listen and know when your fighter has had enough!

Got matched on Blaydes to win by ko at 1.67.
Hard to see anything other then him mauling Volkoff unless he spends too much time testing his stand up.

Wow Camacho can't help getting drawn in to a brawl