One more:

Devin Clark/Alonzo Menifield Under 1.5 -120

Out of curiosity why are we on Assuncao there sigs? You think Cody gets drawn into a brawl and gets knocked out, or just a 'because the model said so' spot?

I'm probably going to be on Martin, Garbrandt and Nunes myself in some capacity

I've rewatched some recent Cody and Assuncao footage and... both guys are done as contenders.

The problem for Assuncao is that he does not have a one shot knockout power at this point of his career, so he will not be able to exploit Cody's main weakness. So, I went for a small/moderate bet on Cody here.


Garbrandt, Cody
Moneyline
50% PROFIT BOOST
Jun 03, 2020, 5:16:06PM
DK2585390632
Wager:
$50.00
To Pay: $98.75
OPEN
Garbrandt, Cody
Moneyline
Garbrandt, Cody vs Assuncao, Raphael (6/6 11:00 p.m.)
-155


However, if Cody does win and draws Moraes or Petr Yan next, I will be going very heavy against Cody there

For the o2.5, Assuncao has only been knocked out once and he's hard to get shots in on. He only gets hit with 2.3 sig strikes/min and defends takedowns at 81%. Garbrandt defends takedowns at the same rate, so it's likely to be fought standing up. So I'm assuming it is going to be a really slow boring fight.

Assuncao controls the action, pace, and is more active. Wins by decision.

like are we sure cody is even that good? he had a magical night against cruz and he's certainly potent offensively. but he doesn't really do much besides defend takedowns and throw fast combos. i'm prob off that fight at current price just cause i get wary of firing on older guys in lightweight divisions, but i might take a nibble on asuncao at 130+. he might knock rafael out but he wasn't dealing with the kicks of munhoz well at all.

It's really hard for me to wrap my head around Garbrandt just being some flash in a pan. He really didn't look bad in his losses. Even his chin hasn't looked bad really. He's got really good boxing, good head movement, great speed/athleticism/power.

His main problem is that he leaves himself exposed when throwing combos and at times he has just gone into brawl mode and got caught (ie throw like 9 punches when he should have thrown 2 or 3 and then moved). His footwork needs improvement and his reach sucks. That's probably why he went to Mark Henry who coaches some shorter reach guys like Frankie Edgar and Eddie Alvarez. I have mixed feelings about Henry but he could definitely help in some of the areas Garbrandt is lacking.

I also just think Garbrandt is doing the right things, taking long breaks rather than getting right back in there and going outside of Team Alpha male for help with his boxing. If he keeps his head on straight he should smoke Assuncao in the standup. Garbrandt was susceptible to leg kicks in his last fight. That's a concern but it's unlikely to deliver Assuncao a win. I really don't see how Assuncao could win a decision if this is a standup battle.

Classic drop..

Cory Sandhagen is quite talented and has unique height for the division but he still seems pretty green to me, being just 5 years into his MMA career. His length is going to cause a lot of fighters trouble, but Sterling is just as long. Sterling has faster punches though and his last fight he landed a ridiculous 174 strikes (349 thrown, 3 rounds). They both can throw lots of volume. Sterling should have better wrestling and a better ground game although Sandhagen could be dangerous there as well.

Overall, I think Aljo should be a bit better pretty much everywhere at this point in their careers. I wouldn't be shocked if Sandhagen won simply because he is an improving fighter that is very unique, but I'm definitely going with Aljo on this one.

there are not many fighters in history that would be able to breeze through the kind of quality Neil Magny put out against Li Jingliang his last fight, he is a solid water mark and he owned him from memory, he earn't that win with quality, that was a fighter that had a bad result, but knuckled down decided what he wanted and came back in the cage a new fighter levels above, I think a lot of people would like to be able to take their personal best and improve it to the extent that Neil Magny did.
after that Jingliang demonstration I'm a believer

If Neil has kept his previous form, kept well fit tuned and turning over between joints, i don't need to see any tape on the other guy Anthony Martin, which is a rare thing to be able to say.

Magny is world champion material if he decides to keep what ever it is he had going between Santiago Ponzinibbio [November 17, 2018] and against dear Jing March 7, 2020

Imagine how good you have to be in using your long frame against a sports polytechnic Olympic china tuned guy, its double impressive to progressively break down a fighter of Jing pedigree,

Seeing 8/11 for Magny,
always be getting your money in on strong story justification, if the story makes sense and flows your good normally, if Neil Magny story and game are in town no one alive is beating him and if they do its going to be by KO not happening by D over 3 over 5 by d

Li's a weird fighter hit and miss

I'm a huge Jake Matthews fan but remember he dominated Li despite an eye gouge too and while Matthews has so much upside he's been inconsistent in his UFC tenure

His EZDS win was impressive though

In general Magny strikes me as an underrated fighter in some ways but Martin is too I think this basically comes down to how good Martin is, Magny is a gatekeeper to the real contenders of the division

I think Devin Clark is the bet. Kid’s got talent. Also on ARM and Kelleher, although the ARM bet is kind of a fan bet since he’s been a big moneymaker for me. I expect a very close fight but ARM is a dog and has been rapidly improving, and Magny has tiny calves which are vulnerable to calf kicks, which ARM is very good at. So he could have a slight edge but it’s probably pretty close to neutral EV here.

I see the argument for Assuncao but he’s getting a little long in the tooth IMO. He’s very smart though, and Garbrandt has proven to be anything but. But Garbrandt is just so talented in terms of handspeed, and he has to have learned something from his previous fights. Kinda feels like you’d be selling low on Garbrandt to fade him here, but IDK. Good luck to all.

Pretty much exactly my thoughts and I think Assuncao at this point is a really good match up for him. He looked kinda of lost on the feet against Sandhagen and just went into grappling mode.

Cody should really have too much on the feet for him and be able stifle his takedowns.

Ended up arbing my Sandhagen bet after more tape watch its a tough fight to call.

On Wineland at 5.3 just think even at this point its too big for what is likely to be mainly a standup fight.

Taken Dunham small at 3.1 and also Kelleher small at 3.25.

Would like to get Nunes inside the distance but nobody is biting on the exchanges and looks don't see much value at current bookmaker lines.

Took Garbrandt -133 for quite a decent size bet

That's all so far. I sort of want Nunes and Martin but haven't bet either yet, Nunes price is borderline unbettable but I don't see how she loses here. Will take a look tomorrow I guess

honestly don't see it. not betting the other way but i think it's very likely he gets knocked out.

anyone firing caceres with me? not sure he wins but i'm willing to take a flyer. he definitely loves getting subbed but i'll take an anti-sweat on hooper at this price.

No real opinion on Caceres/Hooper, was considering Hooper initially but he needs to sub him to win and in the end just decided to leave that fight alone

I wound up taking a few more smaller to medium sized bets to go with my big bet on Cody

Big

Garbrandt -133

Medium

O'Malley ITD -122 - Watching weigh ins they look at least a full weight class apart. Sure, O'Malley might be slightly overrated but he also might still be on steroids, is way bigger, and can finish here both ways, usually by TKO obv but I think he finishes over half the time and obv is a huge fav to win

Byrd -175 - I completely forgot about Pitolo's fight with Callan Potter my god he is such a can etc figure he needs to kill Byrd quickly or he loses badly, plus Byrd steaming so went with Byrd

Meerschaert decision no bet -139

Was gonna leave this fight initially but realised if Meerschaert wins it's almost always by submission and when he gets finished it's usually by submission and his opponent is way way more likely to win by decision with a slim chance of a TKO since Meer is pretty tough

I like my chances of winning when Meer wins and voiding when he loses here so decided to pay some vig for a decision no bet line

Smallish

Nunes ITD -162

She'll win by decision a bit if she gasses but she's just gonna wreck Spencer from bell to bell, don't mind a r1 finish prop if I find the right price but haven't yet. Small though as it's quite juiced if she doesn't get the quick finish but I think she does.

Martin +119

Was initially gonna be bigger on this but I think it's a flip, I really rate Martin and it's time to see if he's a legit top 15ish guy ot not. He did an interview where he mentioned it's the last fight on his contract so this is for all the marbles for him, he's either a journeyman with no leverage if he loses or a legit contender if he wins. I make it a flip so happy to take him as a dog, Martin's impressed me recently in general and I think people may overrate the Li win for Magny slightly, Li is less good than his fight before that made him look.

Cody makes or breaks my card, but hopefully I have a nice card elsewhere too. Keep that chin tucked and keep calm and stick to the gameplan please Cody, you're way faster than Assuncao on the feet just hit him and move and pretend he's Dominick Cruz. This is Cody's career on the line here too, i'm backing Cody and Martin to get the job done in fights they desperately need to win

Assuncao has a few fights left at most and is never going to get to a title shot again, he has less to fight for imo

The Hooper/Caceres fight is the classic case of giving the young guy with star potential a favorable matchup. In his last fight Hooper took Teymur's back standing and then sunk in a RNC. He finished shortly there after with some GNP. Caceres recently had his back taken by Kron Gracie while standing and then was submitted by RNC in short order.

That being said, I'm not sold on Hooper. I don't think he's that good, TBH. I expect him to improve quite a bit in every fight but even then I don't see amazing upside with him.

Regardless, at these odds it's a clear bet for Caceres.

Have to agree ^^

Caceres seeems a lot better then his record indicates, and dudes fought some big names (faber, yair, gracie) . And that fight against Yair Rodriguez was a split decision that honestly looked like he won. Obviously hooper will be a much more different fight stylistically, but to stand and trade with Yair Rodriguez and win in one of the judges eyes is worthy of praise.

Dont wanna discount hooper along his mma journey but hes definitely got his biggest test tonight. I think hooper is still kind of an amateur and not as good as his undefeated record indicates whilst caceres is much better then his almost .500 record. Gonna keep my eye out on the line approaching the fight but at moment caceres at +190 doesn't seem like the worst decision ever. Might just pull a swoopae and stay away though.

Caceres isn't that great. He's lost a couple fights he was supposed to win. He's pretty inconsistent overall, but I just think this fight is closer to a pick'em. Chase Hooper has not yet shown himself to be a world beater by any stretch. He's still just 20 years old.

cody garbrandt steam coming in

wish i was this sharp but i'm always on the wrong side

Good luck everyone ! Might bet some in-plays in a bit

This O'Malley price seems crazy, taken a bit of Wineland by KO at 9.0

Come on Dunham! lets try to not to get smoked in the first and grind out a win.

Sold my Byrd bet face value cashout still think he wins but market drift etc

Menefield is a beast. Let's go!

looks like clark is gonna pull this out. yeah i just wasnt sure how long menifield would last but i still thought hed get it done early.