Alright I called Struve two weeks ago and Bigfoot last week. I am laying 35 units on Erick Silva. He is putting fitch in the dirt no doubt.

Forgot to add, one thing that worries me is the Brazilian crowd. They will be booing fitch within 5 seconds of it going to the mat, depending on the ref that could lead to some absurdly quick stand-ups (i.e. belfort vs rumble), in the states my play on fitch would be much bigger.

I might be the only one but I like R.Story at + money. Maia looked awful against Weidman earlier this year and hasn't got the chance to show any improvement since his last fight ended in less than a min due to injury. I feel like Rick will show that he´s the younger, hungrier fighter and get a KO win here.

Like Big nog vs Herman too, esp in Brazil. Herman is such a joke you never know where you got him and I agree that hes seems to lack motivation to be the best in his class, more so showing up to get a paycheck and having a good time. That being said I think he got potential but it doesnt matter if your head isnt at the right place.

Teixeira and Madadi should be locks, hopef theres some value on those lines.

Hope you're right. I lean towards ESilva working his way to a title shot but am still worried he'll get Fitched so i'm too scared to put the money down on either side of that fight.

That's a good point actually, and Fitch isn't known for having the most active guard. I had totally forgotten about Belfort/Johnson standups even though I had a big bet on Belfort in that fight

Not to mention hometown decisions if the fight is close, although it should be one sided in one way or the other.

@leebert welcome to the thread. I agree Cane should be the bet against Camozzi despite his recent slump if the odds are where I expect. Madadi could be value too.

@P9s Weidman is an elite, top 5, big MW. He's MUCH bigger than rick story and more well rounded and Maia still went the distance with him (granted weidman was on short notice and underperformed). You have to remember Maia was fighting bigger guys at MW, at WW he got Kim's back before the injury and he will have a size advantage over Story. Maia won't get KO'd imo, he's fought the best at MW and only got KO'd by Nate Marquardt and that was a long time ago. Nate is much bigger than Story, despite both being WWs now and Nate has better striking than Story too. Story's only path to victory is topcontrol and not getting subbed, or edging out a decision standing imo. He can do it, but I think the true odds would be closer to Maia -200

Rick Story never finishes anyone.

I think is a parlay favorites card. I'm not too sure about the closer fights (Silva/Fitch and Maia/Story). I'm doing parlays with Davis, Teixeira, Nog, and Anderson ITD.

More excited for this card as a fan than a bettor for the time being.

i'm staying away from davis for sure but parlaying the brazilian favs seems like a decent move on this card

Maia + Nog + Madadi + Teixeira + Rony Jason + Luiz Cane or some combo of them could be worth a play, adding in Trinaldo and Brandao potentially as well for smaller units

4 reasons why Fitch is going to lose.
1. He tore his mcl before the johnny hendricks fight and it is really hard to recover from that without surgery.
2 silva's leg kicks are going to demobilize fitch's takedowns.
3. Silva is an artist on the ground.
4. They are in Brazil with the largest crowds all cheering against fitch, who I heard was real depressed after the hendricks KO.

All in all E. Silva is just too quick and too dynamic for someone just coming off of a Mcl tear.

That's actually a pretty compelling case, I forgot about the mcl.

If all else fails we can just count on the judges in Brazil to rig a decision for Silva.

I like E Silva too. This looks like one of those fights where afterwards you're either going to find there was slight value on Fitch or massive value on Silva.

Brazil is one of the few countries where this will be a real problem - another reason I don't plan to take any non-Brazilians this card.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xq4...zquierdo_sport

Video of Madadis last fight. His standup seems pretty non-existant, but that shouldn't be a problem at all vs Marcello. What I did notice, Madadi likes to go forward alot, push for takedowns, hold against cage and likes the grappling game. His cardio seems to be onpoint so that shouldn't be a problem and if anything I expect him to have better cardio than marcello if I remember correctly from tuf. I don't think Madadi is going to go any further though, both him and marcello seem baddish.
Here is marcellos last fight,
http://mmaversus.com/2012/06/02/cris...tuf-15-finale/
Can confirm he has terrible standup, leaves a lot of holes in his defensive, so anytime he faces any competent, or even half competent striker, he's going to go to sleep most likely. I'm actually not sure now, I don't see Madadi submitting Marcello, I think actually this fight is going to go the distance unless Madadi TKO/KO's Marcello or possibly submits him after hurting him in the standup, prolly in the late 2nd, early 3rd though. Madadi does have Rich Clementi and Carlo Prater under his belt so that got to count for something.

FYP ... don't know about dirt. but he'll grind out a win IMO

Thats not what i originally posted. I said Silva is going to put him away. Fitch is going to get ate up just watch.

I know, I fixed it for you ... Fitch is going to put him away. Silva is going to get ate up just watch

now Fitch is (+110)... throwing the scratch down!

Someone doesn't like money

I lean Fitch in that fight stylistically. Not confident enough to bet it though.

Likewise, although with the layoff, the KO and the injury it's possible Fitch is past his prime and it's also possible Erick Silva is even better than we think he is. He could easily be the #2 WW behind GSP for all we know.

I don't think Fitch is past his prime, or that he is going to have cage rust. He's never really come to a fight untrained, out of shape etc and I don't think he's going to have that this time. If he loses, it will be to either a bit of bad luck(like the Hendricks fight, anyone can get KO, especially vs someone who has good power) and/or because his opponent is more, like GSP. With that said, I hope he loses because he is a pretty boring fighter.

SAM SICILIA +205
RONY "JASON" MARIANO BEZERRA PK-275

FRANCISCO TRINALDO+125
GLEISON TIBAU-155

JOEY GAMBINO+140
DIEGO BRANDAO-170

RENEE FORTE+185
SERGIO MORAES-245

CHRIS CAMOZZI+140
LUIZ CANE-170

CRISTIANO MARCELLO+170
REZA MADADI-230


Supposedly these are what the openers are going to be today (or at least very close)

I love luiz cane under200, think him and maia will be my biggest bets with big nog being my only other

With Tibau starting a decent fave I will avoid that fight. Will include a Tibau 1u bet in the official results tho, since my goal is to prove that I can be +EV just using a data-driven strategy.

Rony Jason seems like a steal. Sicilia is awful.