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Old 05-28-2020, 11:34 PM   #51126
DefNotRsigley
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Re: MMA Thread

Got some losers on tap for Saturday boys

Gutierrez -105 over Morales
Royval +140 over elliott
Royval/Ellit o2.5 -120
Schevchenko -130 over Chookagian
Cifers/Dern u1.5 +115
Burns/Woodley o4.5 +150

Props:
Sakai wins by 3RD +200
Dern wins by submission -135 (rear naked choke)
Dern wins in R2 +350
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Old 05-29-2020, 01:46 AM   #51127
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by RB87 View Post
You should jump on that its huge value.

Only bet I have is Woodley at 1.71 but arbed that laying at 1.6.
Prefer the Woodley KO prop so stuck money up the exchanges along with Dern submission at value prices so hopefully some of it gets taken.

Not really looked at much else on the card yet.
I will, but i'm waiting and hoping nobody else hits it as it's a fairly obscure prop and they often don't move til game day - if I bet now i'd be getting 10-20% of what I can get on it at fight day and once I hit it they're moving it to -300 or whatever prob
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Old 05-29-2020, 10:00 PM   #51128
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Re: MMA Thread

Dern is that girl that looked pretty bad vs that random brazilian girl, Ribas.

i dunno i mean shes big fav and i cant remember how badly she was beaten but i think she gassed or just sucked it up. all i remember was she was fat/out of shape and everyone ITT was mad for betting on fatty.
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Old 05-30-2020, 12:38 AM   #51129
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Re: MMA Thread

Apparently Ribas is good and Cifers is a super favourable matchup for her, I know she's basically a female Maia, so style should make fights etc a few sharp people I know think this is an easy fight for Dern, i'm not familiar enough with Cifers personally to have an opinion
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Old 05-30-2020, 04:35 AM   #51130
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Re: MMA Thread

Got:
Klidson, kinda has to win this, I think he's the better fighter as well in this fight!
-
Chookigian, I think she won't lose to both sisters, unless the 1st 1 broke her mentally, but I don't think that happened and the 2nd sister isn't as good imo, chooki has better stand up and both are stand up fighters...
-
Dern, should be easy
-
Blagoy, with that chin + he should get it done, we can at least bank on his endurance and strength to overcome any unexpected bombs.
-
Gilbert, I kinda like Burns to beat Woodley, everybody is on Woodley but I can't see it. He won't be going to the ground imo, he is going to get chewed up standing imo and Burns will out point him, so unless Woodley gets him with some lucky ko, I don't see him winning!
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Old 05-30-2020, 09:07 AM   #51131
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Re: MMA Thread

Is anyone aware of any MMA data sets that go beyond fighter/location/winner/method etc? I'm looking to improve my data analytics and would love to explore random MMA related topics as I do so but I'm struggling to find a data set that has as many variables as I'm after, most seem to be quite basic.
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Old 05-30-2020, 09:51 AM   #51132
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Re: MMA Thread

ufcstats.com (think it used to be fightmetric they seem connected somehow) seems to have stats from individual fights like sig strikes landed, takedowns and so forth - could be helpful in analysing extent of dominance in fights without watching more tape, knowing when a fighter came from behind down rounds to win and so on

http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/fae99a4089f8abb0

Jones vs Reyes stats linked for example

Won't quite tell the full story like if a fighter is getting hit harder but doesn't get dropped or whatever in a round say they're outlanded by 5 strikes but land the better strikes, but it's at least a basic indication data wise of how a round or fight went
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Old 05-30-2020, 04:16 PM   #51133
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Re: MMA Thread

Don't think this is a great card for betting but got some action.

Got Woodley KO at 3.3
Dern by submission at 2.05
Elliot to win at 1.68

Going to stay up I think and watch the card.
See if I can find some decent value spots in-play
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Old 05-30-2020, 06:18 PM   #51134
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Re: MMA Thread

lol mma has instant replay now? f this
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Old 05-30-2020, 06:36 PM   #51135
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Re: MMA Thread

Man those leg kicks were nasty.
That was pretty much a one sided beatdown.
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Old 05-30-2020, 06:41 PM   #51136
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Re: MMA Thread

Easiest -105 ever. Setting the bar high for the night (i.e., 1-lose everything else)
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Old 05-30-2020, 06:46 PM   #51137
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Re: MMA Thread

Few spots today nothing too huge etc

Sakai -110
Smolka +225
Abreu +110
Dern sub or dec -192

I like Woodley in theory but market moving against him and he's 38 and long layoff so may leave it idk will decide later
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:04 PM   #51138
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Re: MMA Thread

Let`s make some $$ fam !

If anyone has a good stream pls PM me

Good luck to all ! Baby needs new shoes !
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:09 PM   #51139
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Apparently Ribas is good and Cifers is a super favourable matchup for her, I know she's basically a female Maia, so style should make fights etc a few sharp people I know think this is an easy fight for Dern, i'm not familiar enough with Cifers personally to have an opinion
I`ve doing tons of reading about this fight and lots of peiple say that Cifer might edge the 1st round at most so most value might be in-play Dern after the 1st .

A lot of knowledgeable people are also on Abreu , man Hill`s striking is bad he just has power and an undefeated record but Abreu only needs 1 TD and it`s all over with Hill having no grappling skills to defend the sub.

Interesting card. Good luck all !
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:10 PM   #51140
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Re: MMA Thread

I just bet Abreu +115 and was coming here to post it.

I'm glad we are knowledgeable Nick

and Carlyle +105
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:14 PM   #51141
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Re: MMA Thread

Yeah Abreu's steamed in a ton from open I have a decent bit on him
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:21 PM   #51142
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Re: MMA Thread

how is roval +110 on live betting
didn't he get destroyed r1
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:25 PM   #51143
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Re: MMA Thread

sportsbooks are geniuses. i'll take the +140 win and -120 loss
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:27 PM   #51144
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Re: MMA Thread

Guess thats why?
Don't know why he didn't just keep position rather then going for low % subs and losing.
Elliot has the fight IQ of a potato.
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:40 PM   #51145
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Re: MMA Thread

Sold my Abreu bet due to the late drift + able to get face value cashout
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:42 PM   #51146
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Re: MMA Thread

wow +145 now i'll take some more of that

big on him on DK too so lets go
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:43 PM   #51147
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Re: MMA Thread

going against the steam on abreu. added a small bet at 145. small cage should be good for him. won't be shocked if he gets pieced up but im not convinced on hill tdd.
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:45 PM   #51148
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Re: MMA Thread

Ya I still wanted Abreu a bit but my price was horrible vs market so sold it

Still cheering for him to win obv
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:46 PM   #51149
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Re: MMA Thread

welp RIP Abreu
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:49 PM   #51150
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Re: MMA Thread

Thank god for 365's face value cashouts lol

GG Abreu
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