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Old 05-23-2020, 05:44 AM   #51101
The_Jackal21
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Re: MMA Thread

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Only 1 fighter has successfully implemented that gameplan vs Conor and he happens to be the greatest wrestler in the history of the UFC. Chad Mendes tried to implement that gameplan, took Conor down 4 times, and still got his ass kicked. Masvidal can't just conjure up skills that he doesn't possess.
Mendez took that fight on 7 days and gassed, perhaps he would of gassed on a full camp, either way he dominated Conor for 2 rounds and was on his way to winning while being what 5 inches shorter, I imagine a guy with similar height and weight (same skillset as Mendez) to destroy Conor.

How many other wrestlers has Conor fought?

Masvidal has a wrestling background, they aren't new skills to acquire.
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Old 05-23-2020, 07:29 AM   #51102
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Re: MMA Thread

I'd love to hear all about Masvidal's wrestling credentials. All-Americans are pretty much a dime a dozen in the UFC and what exactly did Masvidal do as a wrestler?

As for the Mendes fight, I wouldn't call that domination. Conor was never in serious trouble and while Mendes would have gotten the decision if he continued to take Conor down for 5 rounds, round 1 was a 10-9 round and in Round 2 Conor probably did more damage from the bottom than Mendes did from the top. Regardless, Mendes was finished in round 2 so we'll never know what could have been.

Even if Masvidal had the wrestling background of someone like Khabib or Mendes (he doesn't) his takedowns wouldn't be at their level because those guys' MMA training is super heavy in wrestling and takedowns. Day in and day out those dudes are working takedowns. You think Masvidal trains heavily in takedowns? Hell no. He mostly trains takedown defense just like Conor.
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Old 05-23-2020, 08:52 AM   #51103
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Re: MMA Thread

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That’s going to be such an ass whupping holy ****

Incredible low risk high reward booking for ribas, they’re definitely setting her up for a push. Wonder if she’s done at 115 or she just couldn’t say no to pvz
Surprised Paige took that fight. She has already said she makes more from sponsorship, social media stuff then fighting. Never going to be an elite level fighter should go to Bellator who will give her soft fights and probably put more promotion behind her.
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:09 PM   #51104
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Re: MMA Thread

https://twitter.com/MMAjunkieJohn/st...28614241705984

For anyone skeptical of clicking a link off of the forum, I've quoted it for you here. Despite 1000+ posts I'm still not sure how to embed a picture here but I found it interesting enough to share nonetheless. I wonder whether this will make much of a difference?



"For all the degenerates, the analysts and the generally curious, UFC official tells me the Apex shows will be contested in a 25' cage rather than the 30' octagon we generally see at most UFC events."
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:16 PM   #51105
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Re: MMA Thread

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Old 05-26-2020, 12:02 AM   #51106
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Re: MMA Thread

Smaller octagon should just slightly raise finish % I assume from a betting perspective which I guess favours fighters who aren't stick and move point fighters
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:03 AM   #51107
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Re: MMA Thread

They use small octagon in contender series and finish rate is high, becouse fighters not only need to win but also need to win in spectacular fashion to secure UFC contract.
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Old 05-26-2020, 09:00 AM   #51108
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Re: MMA Thread

What are everyone's thoughts on Cejudo's 'retirement' now he's been stripped and removed from the rankings? It screams negotiation tactic from Henry ofc but Dana doesn't seem to care at all and it'd be a shame to lose out on possibly the greatest combat sports athlete of all time in his prime. As cringey as he is, I do find him pretty entertaining and he's clearly incredibly talented.
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Old 05-26-2020, 09:28 AM   #51109
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Re: MMA Thread

I see Cejudo fighting someone like TJ Dillashaw or Sean O'Malley 2-3 years from now, maybe big name for reasonable amout of money.
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Old 05-26-2020, 11:10 AM   #51110
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Old 05-26-2020, 11:10 AM   #51111
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Old 05-26-2020, 03:12 PM   #51112
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Old 05-26-2020, 05:10 PM   #51113
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Re: MMA Thread

One fight that is intriguing me is Blagoy Ivanov - Augusto Sakai.

Both guys are big, slow and out of shape, albeit Blagoy is more out of shape than Sakai.

I feel like Augusto is very overrated. The only legitimate guy he beat is Marcyn Tybura. If you watch Sakai's fight with Arlovski, he looked bad (Arlovski did not look much better, but did more in arguably every round) and possibly lost all 3 rounds, but somehow managed to get the decision.

I am thinking of going for Blagoy @ -106, but would like to hear diverging opinions if any.

And if you like heavyweight throwdowns, watch Blagoy's last few fights - I think you will enjoy yourself. He reminds me of white Derrick Lewis a bit.

The greatest feature about Blagoy is even when he gasses and takes big shots, he stays on his feet and takes them like a champ. Of course, someone like Ngannou or Overeem would completely wreck him considering how slow and hittable he is, but fortunately for Blagoy, he is fighting Sakai not Ngannou or Overeem.
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Old 05-26-2020, 05:34 PM   #51114
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by wj294 View Post
What are everyone's thoughts on Cejudo's 'retirement' now he's been stripped and removed from the rankings? It screams negotiation tactic from Henry ofc but Dana doesn't seem to care at all and it'd be a shame to lose out on possibly the greatest combat sports athlete of all time in his prime. As cringey as he is, I do find him pretty entertaining and he's clearly incredibly talented.
The biggest problem with Cejudo is that he's a small guy (125lb/135lb divisions). Plain and simple. Same problem Mighty Mouse faced. The casuals never got on board. It's probably going to take a real special personality to draw mass attention to those divisions. The fact that Cejudo was calling out the likes of Cruz and Aldo, guys who themselves lacked real mass appeal, tells you how bad it is in those weight divisions.

While it was technically a negotiation tactic, I don't believe Cejudo actually expected the UFC to cave. The money is just not there in those divisions.

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Originally Posted by povis7 View Post
I see Cejudo fighting someone like TJ Dillashaw or Sean O'Malley 2-3 years from now, maybe big name for reasonable amout of money.
Potentially. That will probably depend largely on how well Cejudo does financially outside of MMA.
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Old 05-26-2020, 05:52 PM   #51115
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
The biggest problem with Cejudo is that he's a small guy (125lb/135lb divisions). Plain and simple. Same problem Mighty Mouse faced. The casuals never got on board. It's probably going to take a real special personality to draw mass attention to those divisions. The fact that Cejudo was calling out the likes of Cruz and Aldo, guys who themselves lacked real mass appeal, tells you how bad it is in those weight divisions.

While it was technically a negotiation tactic, I don't believe Cejudo actually expected the UFC to cave. The money is just not there in those divisions.



Potentially. That will probably depend largely on how well Cejudo does financially outside of MMA.
I still question his decision. He only started making real money last 3 fights: https://thesportsdaily.com/2020/05/1...arnings-fox11/

It is not like he was getting hurt so badly, he was putting his health on the line every fight (which is the case in some of the heavier divisions).

Also, what else is he going to do? Although, I suppose they would love him in Mexican wrestling especially with his antics and all.
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Old 05-26-2020, 06:38 PM   #51116
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Re: MMA Thread

Cejudo didn't make this move for the money. His mindset was more like: it would take a lot of money for him to continue to fight. It sounded like he didn't really enjoy training/sparring/fighting. Like obviously he put in the work because that's what it took to become great but it wasn't like he woke up excited to put the work in on a day to day basis. He also wanted more free time to start a family which sounds a little weird because he's not even married yet but I certainly understand wanting the free time.

It sounds like he'll be getting into real estate somehow. Not sure if he has the people skills for residential but I could see him going into commercial real estate and being successful. He's a hard worker and not a dumb guy. No reason he can't be successful in business. That being said he is a competitor and he can make a lot of money fighting so it wouldn't surprise me if he were to make a reappearance sometime in the future.
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Old 05-27-2020, 12:31 PM   #51117
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Re: MMA Thread

Agreed about the 125 but I thought the 135 was pretty deep with quite a few stars as well as great up and coming talent.
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Old 05-27-2020, 01:51 PM   #51118
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Re: MMA Thread

Sure 135lbs isn't on the verge of being axed like 125lbs but it's still never done the buys of the larger weight divisions.

UFC 227, which was headlined by Dillashaw vs Garbrandt 2 (and co-headlined by Mighty Mouse vs Cejudo 2), exceeded expectations and still only did 300k ppv buys. Cruz vs Faber II did the most ppv buys and that was 350k ppv buys.
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Old 05-27-2020, 05:56 PM   #51119
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Sure 135lbs isn't on the verge of being axed like 125lbs but it's still never done the buys of the larger weight divisions.

UFC 227, which was headlined by Dillashaw vs Garbrandt 2 (and co-headlined by Mighty Mouse vs Cejudo 2), exceeded expectations and still only did 300k ppv buys. Cruz vs Faber II did the most ppv buys and that was 350k ppv buys.
Part of it is also the fighters in these classes lacking any kinda appeal to the fans (and yes, some of it is their fault).

Urijah Faber sort of reminds people of a California Surfer/Skateboarder type and appeals to the fans. He still has more than a million Instagram followers even today. Now, who can get excited about Mighty Mouse or Cejudo? Not me, well maybe a few Mexicans in Cejudo's case.

And it is not a race thing. Canelo and Andy Ruiz hold plenty of appeal with the general public.
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Old 05-27-2020, 07:50 PM   #51120
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Re: MMA Thread

I guess lack of a massive star is part of the problem. Dana probably cried many tears when Cody lost to TJ the first time round as he was likely their best chance at a huge star at 135 or below.

That being said though, if you give me a choice of watching a fight between two people I don't know at 125/135 or at HW I know for certain which I'd be choosing.
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Old 05-28-2020, 02:52 AM   #51121
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Re: MMA Thread

Got almost 8u on Dern to win 2u @ -392 (Bet DSI)

I think she should be easily a -700 or better.

This smaller cage really favours her style which is to throw x2 straight punches - clinch against the cage and look for the TD.

I also like that she doesn`t rush for the Sub, she actually has very solid fundamentals, tucks her chin well and kind of enjoys getting hit. She is a fighter.

I think she either subs Cifers in the 3rd or 30-27 UD easily.

She will not take any unnecesary chances as needs this win to stay relevant so I really don`t recommend any U1.5 bets.
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Old 05-28-2020, 05:37 AM   #51122
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Re: MMA Thread

Appreciate the tip re Dern

I see a really nice Dern sub or dec prop at -192 (!!) that I might jump on @ one of my locals. Question is hit now or wait, if no one else spots it I could get as much as 5-10k on game day vs 1-2k at most today. Will prob wait and hope no one else notices, or that other books open w similar lines and I can spread my bet across a few books with identical props.

Re 125 vs 135 there's a huge gap in that guys who can cut to 135 are still normal sized guys and most male sports fans can still relate to them, some of them have real power etc

I'm a pretty small guy (5'9) and I absolutely towered over Mighty Mouse when I walked past him at the UFC expo a few years ago to the point where my first thought is 'wow he is way, way shorter than I thought he was'. Obviously he could kick my ass and he's jacked and a legitimate athlete but it's hard to see a guy that small as physically intimidating in a combat sport

There's a big gap between say Frankie Edgar at 5'6 where if you pass him in the street you'd think he's a pretty normal size guy, and Mighty Mouse at 5'3 where your first thought is '**** that guy is tiny'

I think that's the problem with a men's division at 125. The fighters are just too small for the average guy off the street to take them seriously (plus lighter weight classes equals less power and therefore fewer finishes). At 135, once you factor in weight cutting, they're normal sized guys but that's not the case at 125, so it'll be super tough for anyone to ever be a draw at lower than 135

At 135 I think Cruz was on the verge of becoming a draw when he lost to Cody and if he had a more finish heavy fighting style he would have been, and TJ could have been a solid heel champ if he'd kept winning and not done steroids. Cejudo tried to be a heel draw but is too cringy.


Aldo vs Yan for the belt, obv Yan is a fav there but that's an interesting one at 135. I was hoping for Yan vs someone else for the belt and for them to make Aldo vs Cruz in the comain as a #1 contender fight, a fight I never thought we'd get to see when they ruled 145 and 135. Yeah, both are past their prime, but neither is completely washed up or anything both would still wreck anyone outside the top 7 or so at 135.
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Old 05-28-2020, 07:06 AM   #51123
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Re: MMA Thread

Cruz didn't fight often enough to become a big draw. Cruz fought Garbrandt in December of 2016. Faber fought that same month. Heading into that month, Garbrandt had fought 5 times in the UFC while over that same span Faber had fought 15 times.

Faber absolutely could have been a big draw for the UFC. Unfortunately he didn't have the level of success in the octagon necessary to become that sort of draw. It's going to take someone special to sell fights in these divisions. Both divisions are close to 10 years running in the UFC and neither has ever had a bonafide PPV draw.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:18 AM   #51124
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Appreciate the tip re Dern

I see a really nice Dern sub or dec prop at -192 (!!) that I might jump on @ one of my locals. Question is hit now or wait, if no one else spots it I could get as much as 5-10k on game day vs 1-2k at most today. Will prob wait and hope no one else notices, or that other books open w similar lines and I can spread my bet across a few books with identical props.
You should jump on that its huge value.

Only bet I have is Woodley at 1.71 but arbed that laying at 1.6.
Prefer the Woodley KO prop so stuck money up the exchanges along with Dern submission at value prices so hopefully some of it gets taken.

Not really looked at much else on the card yet.
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Old 05-28-2020, 07:33 PM   #51125
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Re: MMA Thread

Couple interesting promos I noticed for those of you in the good old US of A

FD:

UFC First and Last Round Insurance

Place a pre-fight Method of Victory wager. If your bet loses and the fight ends in the first or last round, get a refund in site credit up to $50

How it works:

UFC Fight Night fights on May 30th-31st
Pre-fight Method of Victory wagers only (IE 'Tyrone Woodley by Points,' 'Vincent Morales by Submission,' 'Draw,' etc)
Eligible wagers must lose and the fight must end in the first or last round
One eligible wager per fight
In the event multiple Method of Victory wagers are placed on the same fight, the first wager will be deemed the eligible wager
Participants are eligible for a maximum $50 refund for each fight

How I plan on using this one: Dern by Points @ +270. If it is not Dern by points, then she is very likely to get a finish in 1st or last round, so its almost a freeroll.

2) DK:

If you bet a moneyline on any main card fighter, you get your bet back up to $25 if your fighter loses via a finish DQ/KO/Sub

I obviously bet Blagoy Ivanov -112 here (in addition to my primary Blagoy bet for a far bigger amount @+100 on another site) and Dern - 400. These 2 are no brainers.

The other 3 fights eligible for this promo are

Weaver + 295 vs Roberts - 335
Quarantillo -141 vs Carlyle +115
Woodley - 182 vs Burns +150

Do any of those land themselves well to this promo?
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