I agree with RB87, Overeem is as high as 2.43 on some UK facing bookmakers which I'm tempted to bet but it's difficult to root against Walt Harris for obvious reasons.

What do people think about Barboza v Ige? I must confess to not having seen many of Ige's fights but Barboza barely had a shred of fat on him at 155 so I'm very curious to see how he looks on the scales today.

casey has always leaned on being massive at 115, this is her first 125 fight where she won't just be towering over her opponent. she also has been fairly easy to takedown, though she does have a somewhat threatening guard. MRB isn't very good though, so I don't really know where I stand on this one, guess i gotta rewatch some stuff.

Here's what I got for tomorrow, any thoughts? Props are ~1/10th size of regular bets, so scale accordingly.

Overeem +130
Overeem wins by decision +700

I think there's probably some correlation between Harris and u1.5 but if Overeem makes it through the first round Harris is going to tire and Overeem will just take over either by grappling or zoning him out.

Gadelha/Hill u2.5 +310
Barboza -130
Barboza wins by decision +195
Brown/Baeza o1.5 -135
Cortney Casey -135
Casey wins by decision +115
Anthony Hernandez -104

Gone big on Matt Brown at 2.6 managed to get a slow moving line.
Plan is to arb the majority of it and leave some on Brown.

Watching tape on Baeza and the kid is athletic and fast but gets cracked. Doesn't seem to have a great ground game and his clinch game doesn't look great either. Thought with the opening line that he must look a real talent.

Nothing that I have seen warrants him being a decent favourite though.

Really think that Brown closes 2.2 or below come tomorrow. Recreational money should come pretty hard for him.

Looks good to me, quite like Gadelha to by submission at 6.5 if your hitting the unders in that fight. Seems like the most likely way that fight finishes inside the distance.

Yea I was looking for that submission prop line but no where in Vegas has it or online books I have access to

Hopefully they'll post it soon. Some of the ones I use are always late on the props.

Couple more

Nascimento -105
Nascimento wins in distance +150
Song/Vera o2.5 -130 (if it runs)

I have it Harris in main, its not the speed power and display of such high level evolved punching, you can see he has thrown hundreds of thousands of punches under masterful coaching, its visible.
Its his responsiveness to the opponents movement that's so dangerous. He is able to move his mass around like a butterfly, really smooth, knees, good vision, as the fight progresses i don't see it the advantage opens up in reems fav but that it will only give Harris more information to process. Reem reset a while back needing to take his chin into account so he is not as aggressive but technical and withdrawn a little, that's not what Harris is and he will be able to take advantage of a foe waiting back a little.

Harris is down as a boxer and that's all about timing, knowing where your chin is at, when to throw when not to throw and where you are, Harris is really good and deserves the fav 4/6, Harris manages the see saw of a fight very well, the mass, the energy, he has a flow in there getting his over the top.

Reem will win if Harris makes a mistake, ie closing in too much and not landing those lovely long shots, getting pulled into a limb battle on the ground and getting arm barred.

Harris moves well, has huge power and is full of ideas, I would go light on reem sprinkle of by sub?

Added Gadelha to win by submission at 6.5 and Barboza wins inside the distance at 3.75.

Think that will be it for me not going to stay up for this one.

GL to those betting it live

Good luck everyone!

Got:

Gadelha (-185) 1.85u to win 1u
Barboza (-150) 2.6u to win 1.7u

What are the best books to bet in between rounds?

I need to jump off ships like the Smith fight last event lol. I noticed his nose was broken in the third and had plenty of time to save money.

I`m in Canada FYI.

Pretty sure Angela Hill will crush Gadhaela!

Fading both Elkins and Holland. Think Brown loses this 1 as well!

Going to fade Barboza as well, he's moving down to 145!

I wanted to say bet Walt Harris as an underdog because I do think athletes that go through tragedy often out-perform but somehow he is the favorite which makes no sense to me. People must either think Overeem has fallen off (didn't look like it last fight, although maybe the KO affected him) or people think Walt Harris is really for real (yet to show that yet).

Looking through Overeem's losses it's a who's who of MMA badasses and hall of famers both at HW and LHW. Sure, he lost to Rozenstruik's hail mary and he lost to some dude I never heard of back in 1999/2000 but in general you gotta be really really good to beat this dude.

I don't think we've seen anything from Angela Hill to indicate she'll beat Claudia.

I don't recognize some of the names on this card at first glance but think the reason the bigger names are generally able to stay in the UFC as long as they do is because they tend to do very well vs up and comers who have yet to prove themselves (think about the times fighters like Diego Sanchez have proved the sports bettors wrong).

My picks:

Overeem
Gadelha
Barboza
Brown
Elkins

Lets fade this Elkins steam with

Landwehr +110

I've seen enough to fade Gadeahla, Hill will put a very fast pace on her and break her imo.

My picks

Hill
Hernandez
Baeza
Landwehr
Ige
Vera

Quite a few parlays as well...

Good luck us!

Was going to take Elkins and reem but talked myself out of both. Might still talk myself back into them idk or at least reem Dec idk

Took a little Barboza tko or Dec and gadelha sub or Dec at nice prices much better than their mls when both are unlikely to finish by the method not covered. Might get some gadelha sub too idk I can see her rncing hill a lot

Added a small nascimento sweat for the first one

nice 2-0 start. love starting hot and then losing everything

great shout on Nascimento! Thanks for sharing the picks.

Don'Tale Mayes is evidence of how thin the HW division is. I wouldn't mind seeing him fight Greg Hardy though.

Yes nice start to the event, Casey underated ground game she subbed Markos as well.

We crushed that Casey line too. Have her 100% in DFS and she's pretty low owned. Lets go

Was so close to backing Casey and Unders but passed then woulda scooped. Still 1-0 start for me up half a unit so can't complain

Wanted Elkins badly here but too.many sharps I know on the other side so left it. Nearly took Elkins Dec too but talked myself out of it

Darren Elkins tattoo makes me wonder how he has such a good fight iq every time

I feel bad backing Landwehr now after he's punching himself in the face and taunting him 2 feet away. I did not factor in he's crazy

100% landwehr tests positive for cocaine after this

hope he took a big enough bump to get through round 3