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Old 05-12-2020, 04:51 AM   #50901
Malachii
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Re: MMA Thread

If Ngannou was an underdog to Stipe I would sell my first born into slavery on the theory I could buy him back after I doubled my money. Which might explain why I don’t have kids, but the point is still valid
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Old 05-12-2020, 05:24 AM   #50902
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Re: MMA Thread

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I've come to the conclusion that a Gaethje vs Khabib match can not be properly handicapped. How can it be? Gaethje's last 4 opponents haven't even attempted a takedown against him. I guess we can go way back to when Gaethje stuffed 5 of Poirier's takedowns. The problem with that is Gaethje is a much improved fighter since then. Perhaps his wrestling is similar, but his striking game is much improved (and in MMA it's all interrelated).

If I had to guess I suppose I'd favor Khabib but not by more than -200. I saw that Khabib opened as a -350 favorite.

I'm also not sure how a Conor vs Gaethje matchup would go. It's remarkable how far Gaethje's striking has come in the last 2 years. In his first 3 fights he was Homer Simpson just plodding forward and taking punishment to give punishment. He was hitting his opponents an astronomically high 8+ times per minute but he was getting hit over 10 times per minute (wtf?!).

Tony Ferguson hit him 136 times in nearly 5 full rounds. By contrast, Poirier hit him 174 times in just over 3 rounds. Alvarez hit him 155 times in just under 3 rounds. Michael Johnson hit him 91 times in 2 rounds.
I think Gaethje is gonna murder him. Everything about him is perfect for a fight against Khabib from his build to his power to his kicks to his wrestling background to his aggressive mindset. I’m personally gonna bet him big.

Last edited by Malachii; 05-12-2020 at 05:41 AM.
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Old 05-12-2020, 05:59 AM   #50903
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Re: MMA Thread

Oh I don't think Cruz was gonna win the fight but he was literally standing up when the ref stopped it

I do agree an EARLIER stoppage would have been fine when Cruz's head was on the mat, that would have been a fine stoppage but after the ref let it go on, Cruz was clearly trying to stand up and not out of it - initially he was out of it but obv his head had cleared

That said he was clearly on his way to a clear but competitive loss so w/e I still think he beats most of the guys in the division but obv his prime is behind him and Cejudo is a beast etc

Got a few leans for this next card but need to watch some tape first tomorrow + want to see weigh ins for a few fights first

Re Gaethje/Khabib; I think Khabib mauls anyone, but if Gaethje wins it probably won't be close, if Khabib can't get him down at will obv he gets knocked out but i'd back Khabib to take down anyone who is a contender at LW at will - no idea what i'll bet for that one will depend on the price. I'd expect Khabib opens -2xx but who knows. Obv sad I never had a chance to go all in on Khabib against Tony; granted it's a totally different style to what Gaethje did but I was very confident Khabib wins that fight a huge majority of the time

I thought Conor was the toughest MU for Khabib as the best striker in the division but if Gaethje's TDD is signifnicantly better than Conor's he could be the toughest matchup (despite me still thinking Conor is a small fav over Gaethje) - you only need to be a better striker than Khabib and be able to stuff him to win, the latter part only Tibau has done (granted Khabib was a better striker than Tibau plus Khabib is way better now and Tibau was on roids)
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Old 05-12-2020, 12:11 PM   #50904
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
I think Gaethje is gonna murder him. Everything about him is perfect for a fight against Khabib from his build to his power to his kicks to his wrestling background to his aggressive mindset. Iím personally gonna bet him big.
Gaethje has great skill and that is beneficial to him. However, I don't see him as tailor made to beat Khabib. For instance, having power is great but Khabib rarely gets hit clean. Having leg kicks is nice, but much of Khabib's fights are fought in the clinch and on the ground. Having a wrestling background is nice but that doesn't mean his wrestling is anywhere close to Khabib's level or that he will be able to prevent the takedowns.

I've shifted and think the line should be between -200 and -250 Khabib (again just a wild guess). Odds makers have sit around -320 but I did see -240 yesterday.

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Oh I don't think Cruz was gonna win the fight but he was literally standing up when the ref stopped it

I do agree an EARLIER stoppage would have been fine when Cruz's head was on the mat, that would have been a fine stoppage but after the ref let it go on, Cruz was clearly trying to stand up and not out of it - initially he was out of it but obv his head had cleared
I hate to beat a dead horse but if you look at the replay closely you will see that Cruz's head is lying on the mat right before the ref steps in. While I don't think Dominick Cruz was intelligently defending himself before that, his head was not actually laying on the mat until right before the ref stepped in.

Earlier Cruz's head bounced up and down off the canvas multiple times which is proof that he did not have his wits about him and was not intelligently defending himself. However, there is no evidence he was completely out at that point. It wasn't until the 3rd to last shot that Cejudo threw that Cruz appeared to go unconscious with his head laying on the floor. A third of a second later Cejudo struck him with another punch that appeared to wake Cruz up. Upon waking up, Cruz immediately started going to his feet and the ref stepped in just two thirds of a second after it appeared that Cruz was unconscious (a second after Cejudo landed the shot that put Cruz out).
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Old 05-12-2020, 01:39 PM   #50905
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Re: MMA Thread

Lets lose this money guys

Moises -110
Arlovski/Lins u2.5 -115
Ricky simon -160
Rothwell/Saint Preux o2.5 +100
Smith/Teixeira o2.5 +115

Props:
Smith wins in R4 +1400
Rothwell wins by decision +400
Dober wins by decision +250
Vettori wins by decision +130
Eubanks wins by decision -120
Lins wins in R1 +300
Lins wins by KO/TKO +150
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Old 05-12-2020, 09:03 PM   #50906
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Re: MMA Thread

Just a random question. Is Betstars open to Canadian players? If so how can I attach it to my Pstars poker account?
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Old 05-13-2020, 12:24 AM   #50907
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Lets lose this money guys

Moises -110
Arlovski/Lins u2.5 -115
Ricky simon -160
Rothwell/Saint Preux o2.5 +100
Smith/Teixeira o2.5 +115

Props:
Smith wins in R4 +1400
Rothwell wins by decision +400
Dober wins by decision +250
Vettori wins by decision +130
Eubanks wins by decision -120
Lins wins in R1 +300
Lins wins by KO/TKO +150
Just out of curiosity, how did you arrive at Ricky Simon -160? Don't necessarily disagree with the pick but was this based on watching tape or some type of model? The reason why I ask is I actually have a moderately predictive MMA model that I hired someone to program that likes Ray Borg (the model doesn't beat the lines in isolation but is useful for finding interesting candidates for bets.)
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Old 05-13-2020, 12:37 AM   #50908
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Gaethje has great skill and that is beneficial to him. However, I don't see him as tailor made to beat Khabib. For instance, having power is great but Khabib rarely gets hit clean. Having leg kicks is nice, but much of Khabib's fights are fought in the clinch and on the ground. Having a wrestling background is nice but that doesn't mean his wrestling is anywhere close to Khabib's level or that he will be able to prevent the takedowns.

I've shifted and think the line should be between -200 and -250 Khabib (again just a wild guess). Odds makers have sit around -320 but I did see -240 yesterday.



I hate to beat a dead horse but if you look at the replay closely you will see that Cruz's head is lying on the mat right before the ref steps in. While I don't think Dominick Cruz was intelligently defending himself before that, his head was not actually laying on the mat until right before the ref stepped in.

Earlier Cruz's head bounced up and down off the canvas multiple times which is proof that he did not have his wits about him and was not intelligently defending himself. However, there is no evidence he was completely out at that point. It wasn't until the 3rd to last shot that Cejudo threw that Cruz appeared to go unconscious with his head laying on the floor. A third of a second later Cejudo struck him with another punch that appeared to wake Cruz up. Upon waking up, Cruz immediately started going to his feet and the ref stepped in just two thirds of a second after it appeared that Cruz was unconscious (a second after Cejudo landed the shot that put Cruz out).
When was the last time Gaethje was taken down and controlled in a fight? And how does Khabib get him down without exposing himself to Gaethje's power? And while it's true he doesn't take much punishment that is predicated on his ability to take guys down and control them, both Poirier and Michael Johnson rocked him, and Gaethje hits way harder (and is much more difficult to take down) than both of those guys.

If Khabib can consistently take Gaethje down and control him while simultaneously avoiding his power then I agree he wins. But I personally wouldn't lay -235 on his ability to do that to Gaethje. Even if you win, that can't possibly be a +EV bet.
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Old 05-13-2020, 12:51 AM   #50909
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Re: MMA Thread

I think I've mentioned this before but Khabib is also the most dominant fighter in the clinch. He doesn't have to take someone down in order to control them.

Furthermore, Justin Gaethje himself stated that he gets very tired wrestling. He said virtually every time he had a 7 minute wrestling match he was almost unable to walk afterwords. His success in wrestling came from being the aggressor and going all out.

Also, let's keep in mind that in his last 4 fights his opponents have combined for a total of 0 takedown attempts. The last 2 times his opponents tried to wrestle with him, Gaethje lost. Of course, he's a different fighter today but none of these things are pluses for him in a match vs the most dominant wrestler in UFC history.
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Old 05-13-2020, 12:57 AM   #50910
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Re: MMA Thread

Khabib is going to expose himself to Gaethje's power. There is no denying that. Still, it's unlikely that he gets punched anywhere close to as many times as Ferguson or Gaethje were punched in their fight. Gaethje was throwing bombs vs Ferguson early and didn't knock him out. Ferguson threw a massive uppercut that floored Gaethje but still didn't knock him out. It's not so easy to knockout the top LWs, I don't think.
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Old 05-13-2020, 01:19 AM   #50911
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Re: MMA Thread

Gaethje knocked out James Vick, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone in the first round. He can knockout anybody if he hits them right. I think this is a bad matchup for Khabib. But we'll see what happens.
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Old 05-13-2020, 02:38 AM   #50912
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Re: MMA Thread

Absolutely Gaethje can knock him out. The question is how likely is it that he does. I'm actually quite interested to see the gameplan Trevor Wittman devises. Ideally, Gaethje will want to maintain distance while keeping his back away from the cage (I suppose this is what everyone wants to do when they face Khabib). If Khabib is able to implement his gameplan of consistently putting Gaethje against the cage then Gaethje's chances of winning the fight should prove to be quite limited, regardless of how well his takedown defense proves to be.

Side note: Gaethje has power and precision to knock out anyone. However, Vick and Cowboy have gawd awful striking defense so lets not mention their names. Last summer I said Vick should retire so then he went on to get knocked out by an upkick in his next fight.
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Old 05-13-2020, 06:59 AM   #50913
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Re: MMA Thread

So far i'm on both Smith -178 and Azure at -178 and Dober at -116

I want to back Michael Johnson at about evens so badly but his ability to lose fights he's dominating always worries me

Was semi interested in Lins but seems the price is gone and I generally rate Arlovski more than most which has cost me in the past

Don't think i'll be going as hard on this card only got about 2u in play all up across 3 fights so far
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:02 AM   #50914
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Re: MMA Thread

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Just a random question. Is Betstars open to Canadian players? If so how can I attach it to my Pstars poker account?
AFAIK yes it is and it can be accessed via the stars client.
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Old 05-13-2020, 10:57 AM   #50915
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Re: MMA Thread

im on moises. i rly like MJ as a kickboxer but it's just almost inevitable that moises is going to get him down at some point and then it's just massive self destruction time. MJ did look awesome physically at the weigh-ins though.

think i'm on hernandez too. i just wish we could know what version we're getting. the OAM version would dog out dober fairly comfortably. guess i have to end up on smith too, but i've loved riding this glover resurgence lately. been so fun to almost lose in the first round to rebound. just don't think anthony will self destruct like glover's last opponents and it's probably going to be too dangerous on the feet for glover. don't think he'll deal with the length of smith too well.

Last edited by Joe Pulaski; 05-13-2020 at 11:07 AM.
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Old 05-13-2020, 11:39 AM   #50916
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Re: MMA Thread

Lets also get some of that Drew Dober -123

Simon who knows, obviously bad pick since now the market is moving against us. Usually I just google photos of the fighters and see which one looks scarier. That mullet intimidated me.
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Old 05-13-2020, 11:59 AM   #50917
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm on Ricky Simon at 1.68
Benitez at 2.8
Arlovski at 2.5
Biggest bet is on Smith at 1.62

Tried to get money on Sherman at 1.77 but no takers so unless that price drifts it will be a no bet.

Going to stay up and bet this live. The last card there was a lot more liquidity on the exchange and some really good prices between rounds.
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Old 05-13-2020, 01:10 PM   #50918
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Re: MMA Thread

Roberson/Vettori cancelled, not COVID related! More time for ESPN to show us dramatic Corona footage

What do you gym rats think about Kelleher +180? Aggressive and defends takedowns well. His issue is he always seems to get caught unaware and gets knocked out. Azura wrestles but defensively. I could see this being all stand up and Kelleher just winning by decision due to landing more strikes and being more aggressive.

Lets do it, Kelleher +180.

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Old 05-13-2020, 02:13 PM   #50919
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Re: MMA Thread

Without giving it too much thought I like:

Anthony Smith
Over on Rothwell/OSP
Drew Dober
Ray Borg
Alovski

Hernandez has beaten the last 2 guys that beat Dober so MMA Math says Hernandez should win but Dober seems to be coming into his own and I can't get that Hernandez/Cowboy fight out of my mind.
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Old 05-13-2020, 03:42 PM   #50920
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Re: MMA Thread

Actually, I might have recency bias vs Hernandez. Rather than betting Dober straight up, betting Dober R1 probably makes more sense.
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Old 05-13-2020, 03:51 PM   #50921
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Lets also get some of that Drew Dober -123

Simon who knows, obviously bad pick since now the market is moving against us. Usually I just google photos of the fighters and see which one looks scarier. That mullet intimidated me.
Word. I usually fade Doo Hoo Choi for that very reason. Cannot in good conscience wager my hard earned shekels on a guy who looks like he should playing professional Starcraft.
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:02 PM   #50922
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Re: MMA Thread

If I could be serious, the reason I went Simon is because of Borg going up to Bantam and Simon fights similar to him. I think Simon is better at take downs and wrestling but he can actually defend take downs and that's going to be a huge advantage.

Also I know nothing about MMA
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:15 PM   #50923
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Re: MMA Thread

That's good because Simon dropped the mullet.
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:29 PM   #50924
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Re: MMA Thread

glover juicy af,
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:43 PM   #50925
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Re: MMA Thread

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What do you gym rats think about Kelleher +180? Aggressive and defends takedowns well. His issue is he always seems to get caught unaware and gets knocked out. Azura wrestles but defensively. I could see this being all stand up and Kelleher just winning by decision due to landing more strikes and being more aggressive.

Lets do it, Kelleher +180.
We did it bitches. Forced Azura to be aggressive and then random'd him out. Now to lose the rest of them
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