It definitely showed in his face from the front. Not sure what we can glean from that. I expect him to be 100%.

Werdum looked old and out of shape, but I don't think that's that unusual for him. Oleinik looks in prime condition. Then during the faceoff Werdum looked gigantic compared to Oleinik but I think that was more just the way they were standing.

Pettis and Cerrone are friends now. I wonder how that might enter into the equation.

Remember leading up to UFC 246, Conor showered Cowboy with kindness. Some said it was just to clean up his own image but I think a lot of it was psychological warfare. Normally Conor gets in his opponents head by attacking them with words. This is a definite tactic he uses but for some reason he decided to take the opposite approach with Cowboy and since then we've heard Cowboy claim that leading up to the fight he wasn't fired up and wasn't really feeling the fight whatsoever.

Souza is out with the coronovirus, what a mess

I don't think that is a mess at all. I was actually surprised nobody had tested positive yet. It would be a mess if Tony or Justin was out. Still wouldn't have surprised me. Saw Justin holding rails at the airport with no glove. Saw him without a mask at times. People are definitely not taking this virus as seriously as they should.

Sounds like maybe Jacare got it from a family member.

This explains the masks, gloves, and distance here because they knew it was a possibility:

This happened




and after this ...



and after this



I hope everyone 's gona be allright

-jpp

Pretty excited for this card

My card so far (got a couple nice uncapped boosted lines which is nice)

Ngannou TKO +120
Ngannou/Rozenstruik fastest finish of the night +600
Ngannou fastest finish of the night +650 (obv not quite as good but lowish limits so wanted more)

Werdum ITD -123

Ferguson ITD -105
Ferguson TKO +360
I may add some Gaethje r1 prop or some Ferguson sub if I can get on at a decent line - I think Ferg wins but if Gaethje wins it'll be a quick KO.

Pettis TKO +260

Hardy TKO +180

Also either going to add Cruz dec +300 or Cruz +190ish or whatever the best line on each is but haven't decided which way i'm going yet

Hope the card goes on as planned and no one else has/gets Coronavirus

Weigh in thoughts - Cruz's size advantage about what I thought it would be; all of Werdum, Ngannou and Hardy are bigger than I thought relative to their opponents and was leaning all three to finish as it stood anyway beforehand and think Cerrone looks like he had a rough weight cut

Mildly sad i'm backing Hardy for the first time since he's a scumbag but hopefully he gets a nice KO so he can get fed to a top 10 opponent again.

Ngannou TKO is my biggest bet of the card at the moment. I may take a small hedge on Ngannou sub but probably not, I think he just connects and puts him out in the first round a ton, am actually considering some Ngannou wins in r1 too @ +187ish

Nice odds on Ngannou by KO I would have hammered that. Best I have seen is even money on Betfair.

Added a small hedge for my Ferguson TKO bet; got Ferguson wins by Darce Choke @ +900

Still prefer the TKO as I win tons there but I profit if he wins by D'arce now and small loss if he wins by other sub or dec/other

If he gets the sub I expect it to usually be a D'arce choke since it's likely to be after rocking Gaethje less likely to get his back or whatever imo

One of my soft locals has a few uncapped promo lines where I was able to get tons on - unfortunately for Cruz Cejudo their 'boost' is Cejudo dec which I don't like since I think Cruz will win by dec or Cejudo by TKO

I did get 4 slightly off market spots from their boosts though on spots I like which is nice

Saw Werdum had contact with Jacare although I assume he doesn't have corona etc since UFC would be super strict testing everyone after the Jacare test - apparently 2 of his cornermen had corona too

One sharp I know thinks Waterson is a flip with Esparza but I really don't have any useful analysis for that fight I have no idea how it'll play out. Could see Esparza winning via wrestling or Waterson via better more well rounded and having better kicks or anything else. I know some people like Esparza too

I'll prob make a few 0.1 unit sweat bets on the fights I don't whack tomorrow but pretty happy with the spots i'm on for a decent amount so far

Hope no more drama and this card goes off with no further issues so we can have UFC back permanently now

he's got gloves and an n95 mask on, it's not a high risk situation at all imo, and i'm not someone who's downplaying the rona. remember the r only got as high as 3 (probably higher due to higher presence of asymptomatic cases) and that was with no social distancing, packed spaces, no masks. it isn't like you're radioactive and everyone you come into contact with gets it. if everyone was wearing gloves and n95s we'd be basically rid of corona within the month or so

i thought this price was gonna end up way closer than it is. i'm looking to get esparza at under 125. i do think she wins, but not loving current price.

Got a little Spann ITD -138 and Cruz mix of Dec +300 and Cruz +187

Biggest bet of the card is Ngannou by TKO

GL all will be around tomorrow to sweat obv

Took a little Hardy TKO or DEC -178 to go with my Hardy TKO prop

I mean, I can't imagine him attempting a sub but you never know

I don't rate Hardy as a fighter but he's just so much bigger and more athletic than De Castro, should smash him. De Castro hasn't been finished as a pro but he did get TKO'd by a nobody as an amateur etc and Tafa is not exactly a world beater and is his biggest win i'm banking on Hardy's athleticism to carry the day

Bit of Cruz steam over the last hour is encouraging - I ended up going mostly Cruz straight up, would be too annoyed if Cruz finishes him and I don't win for the fight and I could see him landing a knee if Cejudo shoots or something although a decision is obv way more likely

Overall pretty excited w my spots for the card but it'll be a high variance one as I have a lot of props/dogs for decent amounts, hopefully the 3 HW favs just smash their opponents as I expect them to quickly and if so i'll be in for a nice night - I do think I should have hedged with Gaethje r1 KO idk, I guess I can always do it last minute if the line's still there and I do think Ferguson survives and if he gets out of the first he's going to grind Gaethje down and wreck him, I make a small loss if it's any sub other than a darce, a decent profit if it is a darce and a ton if it's by TKO, hoping Gaethje will walk right into a counter or doctor's stoppage as he gets battered late and if Ferguson does win by sub I do expect it to be by darce at least half the time since that's more likely off the back of Ferguson rocking him, I can't see a large portion of this fight being spent grappling

I have these picks that usually aren't aligned with anyone here and we manage to break even. Any thoughts????

Esparaza -135
De Castro +190
Rozenstruik +240
Cruz +190
Rosa +150

Gaethje/Ferguson o2.5 +145
Alvey/Spann o1.5 -125

Props:
Esparaza wins by 3 round decision -110
Ferguson wins in Round 4 +850
Spann wins by decision +275
Luque wins by TKO/KO +150
Luque wins in R2 +400
Werdum wins by TKO/KO +160
Werdum wins in R2 +450

I'll give it a crack

Esparaza -135 <-- no real thoughts on this one
De Castro +190 <--- I mean, Hardy sucks, but he's so much bigger and more athletic. I've faded Hardy a lot so far but on the other side here granted I got an uncapped promo boosted Hardy KO prop for most of it and effectively have some -178 on the other side since Hardy's not going to be attempting any subs 99% of the time
Rozenstruik +240 <--- Great price vs market, and a sharp I know likes it - but Ngannou is 7/7 in the UFC when his opponent closes shorter and only 3/4 when he does so real world results haven't really correlated in his case - I think his athelticism and power makes the diff and he wins by KO quickly, but if it goes past the midway point of r2 you're very live. I think Ngannou kills him in r1 though usually. He was just too hittable against Reem and he's been KO'd twice in kickboxing and was way too hittable against Reem and all of his other fights were either against cans or he won quickly against guys like Arlovski whose best days are behind him. Ngannou does have a chin too. I think Ngannou hits him and he goes down in the first or second exchange but hey it's HW and +240 for a guy who is decent
Cruz +190 - On the same side of this one, I think Cruz usually wins when it goes the distance, which it's a favourite to - when it doesn't Cejudo can KO him a bunch, but I like Cruz at this price. A smart elusive fighter with a 5 inch reach advantage and 4 inch height advantage and probably an extra 5-10lbs of weight as well despite Cejudo being jacked. Not sure Cejudo has the hand speed to do what Cody did or even find the success TJ did with his size disadvantage. Cejudo has to KO or LNP him to win imo (or if Cruz's body is shot but I doubt he'd have come back if that was the case, he's 2/2 for good performances off long layoffs vs TJ and Mizugaki)
Rosa +150 <--- No opinion haven't seen enough tape on him. I watched Bryce's TUF season and wasn't mega impressed tho so cant be too bad.

Gaethje/Ferguson o2.5 +145 <--- seems about right I don't hate it despite being on various Ferguson ITD props I think he usually finishes in r2-3-4. When Ferg wins I think it'll be after 2.5 rounds slightly over half the time but still usually ITD, but when Gaethje wins it'll be a R1 KO. I think Ferg's gonna win at around that 12.5 minute mark a ton. Don't really love or hate it.
Alvey/Spann o1.5 -125 <--- I mean Alvey ****ing sucks and is fighting up a weight class and is coming off 3 losses vs a legit LHW prospect so he's gonna get rekt it's just a matter of when. My Spann ITD bet is by far my smallest of the card mostly for the action, no real opinion.

Props:
Esparaza wins by 3 round decision -110 <--- Seems fine if you like that side when she wins it'll be by decision. Two of my sharp friends are on Waterson and think the fight is a flip, one of the guys from the thread here loves Esparza and thinks she's a much bigger fav, I'm very familiar with both fighters but don't really have an opinion on the fight as i'm not sure how it plays out
Ferguson wins in Round 4 +850 <--- I like it in principle but not sure about the price, I do think he wins in r2-4 a ton though.
Spann wins by decision +275 <-- if you think he'll cruise to a decision rather than blast Alvey sure. Obv he's gonna win barring puncher's chance it's a matter of how. I don't think we see Alvey's hand raised in the octagon ever again tbh.
Luque wins by TKO/KO +150 <--- sure, Price is kill or be killed, i'm lower on Luque than most but ironically I actually rate him higher after the Wonderboy fight than before it despite him losing, showed a lot of heart etc
Luque wins in R2 +400 <--- no real opinion. One of them is prob going down and r2 is very possible.
Werdum wins by TKO/KO +160 <-- I nearly fired this myself at the exact same price; ended up taking Werdum ITD -123 instead because he could very easily wind up on top somehow and just tap Oleinik even though both are sub guys Werdum is bigger and better everywhere unless coming off steroids has ruined him he should win easily and it's the most likely outcome.
Werdum wins in R2 +450 <--- seems fine. I'm pretty happy with just Werdum ITD tbh and if Oleinik had been in worse shape i'd have paid the vig to take Werdum's ML too but I guess there's a slim chance Oleinik starches him in r1. I fully expect Werdum to dominate until he finishes or the fight is over and quite like this, Werdum R2 tko seems pretty likely (second only to a r1 tko) and a sub is more likely in the second than first.

If Greg Hardy can't beat Yorgan De Castro then the Greg Hardy experiment is pretty much over. Sure, he'd get some more fights but this is about as easy as it will get for him facing a smaller one dimensional fighter with limited experience. Greg Hardy fights out of one of the top fight camps in the world. Really would be inexcusable to lose this one.

High likelihood this fight ends on the feet but if there was a fight that Hardy would go for a submission, it would be this one.

Lock of the century based on my intimate knowledge of MMA

Sam Alvey +375

and prop

Alvey wins by TKO/KO +560

Look at all that Alvey steam. Down to +285. We did it guys.

Tons of over steam too! -150!

My body ...

Is Ready

Alvey vs. McGregor UFC 252 on Fight Island. Book it

Fun fight glad it was my smallest bet of the day by far

Could be anything from 29 28 spann to 28 28 draw

Surprised spanns defense as bad as it was it's inexcusable he almost lost to Alvey lol

Split decision a bit wtf like U can give Alvey a 10 8 for a draw maybe in r3 but he didn't win R1 or 2 in any universe

Lot of Mitchell steam but no bet for me missed the blind steam chasing etc

Might fade spann vs a top guy who is a good counter puncher with power in the future he needs to work on his defense

How has Bryce Mitchell not tapped him yet he's finished like 6 subs and counting or something so far

Looks like the steam got this one right Rosa has nothing for Mitchell's grappling so far

It looks like Mitchell really wants a twister for a performance bonus

Either Rosa is worse than I thought he might be or Mitchell's showed some real improvement

Probably the most tilting u2.5 miss in years

Talking trash from the bottom for 14 minutes while getting clear 30-24’d wow

Imagine the tilt of anyone who bet mitchell by sub I can't even imagine lol I don't think I've ever seen a fight with that many effectively completed submissions going the distance