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Originally Posted by ChrisV
Some more early lines up. Only +290 for Prado so far but I will wait and hopefully get him at over +300 when Pinny lines etc come up. -325 for Glover, meh. Big Nog -260 tho.
Looking like nothing much on the card I like. I will be betting Silva (Edit: Erick, that is) and Prado, and maybe Tibau depending on odds, but Swoop's writeup has me worried as Trinaldo may be underrated if he was fighting at the wrong weight class during TUF. Won't have any other bets. I might end up betting some stuff where I have small leans the same way people here favour (Madadi for e.g.). Have to see who Gonzaga is fighting as well I guess.
Trinaldo is a LW who was fighting at MW on the show. He got eliminated by Thiago Bodao who is pretty good, who in turn got eliminated by the guy that won the show. He then dispatched a much bigger (but admittedly mid level at best) Delson Heleno pretty easily fighting at MW on the finale. His only loss is to Yuri Alcantara and he won and never lost the Jungle Fight LW title.
Basically, he didn't look amazing on the show because he was undersized, but he came out with a point to prove and if he shows up the way he did against Heleno and Tibau shows up the way he did against Nurmagomedov and Dos Anjos, Tibau is going to be in for a beating.
Tibau has more experience and good takedown defense, but Trinaldo's striking is excellent at LW and he won't be at a size disadvantage for the first time in a while. Remember, he was fighting TWO weight classes above his natural weight class.
Wait and see where the odds are, but if Tibau is a favourite like I think he may be due to Trinaldo being relatively unknown, i'll definitely get on Trinaldo.