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Old 10-05-2012, 10:06 PM   #5051
ChrisV
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Re: MMA Thread

Official Result: Thiago Santos wins by Disqualification (Flagrant Groin Strike) at 4:51 of Round 1

4/4 for Bellator then.
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Old 10-05-2012, 10:15 PM   #5052
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Re: MMA Thread

Nice, I didn't bet that one tho.

Struve vs BF would be pretty funny, just bet under there.
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Old 10-05-2012, 10:20 PM   #5053
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
To date: 18-7, +4.896u (54 units bet), 9.07% ROI.

Best Bets: 4-1
3-star plays: 3-1
2-star plays: 7-3
1-star plays: 8-6

2-star plays

Ellenberger v Hieron 3u @ 1.29 W
Santos v Prindle 2u @ 1.163 W
Volkov v Rogers 2u @ 2.19 (BEST BET) W
Hale v Wessel 3u @ 1.35 W
Quieroz v Holata 2u @ 2.475 W

1-star plays

Johnson v Castillo 2u @ 1.65 (would be a 2-star play but the line has shortened so much) W
Browne v Silva 1u @ 1.48 L
Volkmann v Roller 1u @ 1.57 W
Harris v Uyenoyama 1u @ 3.35 L
Best bets: 5-1
3-star plays: 3-1
2-star plays: 12-3
1-star plays: 10-8
Overall: 30-13

This card: +7.446u
To date: +12.342u from 71u bet, 17.4% ROI

Only fights I saw were Browne and Ellenberger, but pretty happy with the bets in general from what I've read. Johnson and Browne a bit iffy maybe. 4-0 in Bellator was nice, Quieroz got tagged but survived well and rallied to armbar his opponent, and all my other guys obliterated their opponents. Bloody Elbow scored the Volkov fight 10-9 10-8 10-8, although the official judges were all 30-27.
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Old 10-05-2012, 10:22 PM   #5054
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Re: MMA Thread

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White said on Twitter that Stephens is fighting, just a couple minutes ago.
Dana lies.
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Old 10-05-2012, 10:32 PM   #5055
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Re: MMA Thread

Proud of my picks today.
(W)10 units on Antonio Silva = +19 units
(W)1.5 units on micael Johnson =+1
(W) 2 units on Mike pierce = +1.25
(L) 1 unit on Bart Palaszewski =-1
(W) 8 units on Jake Ellenberger = +2.5
(W) 1 unit on Marcus L. = +.5
(W) 2 units on John Dodson = +1
(L) Parlay on Jake E., Dodson, neer, michael johnson, and mike pierce. =-.75
And got my money back from the Jeremy Stephens fight because he couldn't get out of the pen. haha.

All in all it was a +23.5 unit day.
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Old 10-05-2012, 11:38 PM   #5056
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Re: MMA Thread

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Haha, what a sweat for those who bet pierce + johnson.
That was me. Went from cursing both guys out to standing up screaming YES, YES, YES!!!

Love betting MMA.
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Old 10-06-2012, 12:53 PM   #5057
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Re: MMA Thread

lol insane that the bellator guys fight twice and both end in groin strike ridiculousness

so... UFC 153

Light Heavyweight Anderson Silva vs Stephan Bonnar
Heavyweight Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Dave Herman
Light Heavyweight Glover Teixeira vs Fabio Maldonado
Welterweight Jon Fitch vs Erick Silva
Light Heavyweight Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado
Welterweight Demian Maia vs Rick Story
Preliminary Card (FX)
Featherweight Rony Mariano Bezerra vs Sam Sicilia
Heavyweight Gabriel Gonzaga vs TBA
Lightweight Gleison Tibau vs Francisco Trinaldo
Featherweight Diego Brandao vs Joey Gambino
Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Welterweight Sergio Moraes vs Renee Forte
Middleweight Luiz Cané vs Chris Camozzi
Lightweight Cristiano Marcello vs Reza Madadi
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Old 10-06-2012, 01:13 PM   #5058
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Re: MMA Thread

Light Heavyweight Anderson Silva vs Stephan Bonnar

We all know the story here. The greatest mixed martial artist of all time against the upper-mid level LHW who always comes to fight but has never been a real contender.

Bonnar will come to fight, but will get outclassed and will lose barring MMA randomness. That said, Bonnar is big, has good BJJ and a chin, so there's no value given Silva is -1200ish. No real value on Bonnar either at +800ish, the true line is probably something like -900.

My pick: stay away, although I may take the over 1.5 rounds as I feel Anderson may start slow and feel him out and then Bonnar's chin can hold up a while if the over is at evens or better. Will bet Silva at -600 or Bonnar at +1200

Heavyweight Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Dave Herman

Big Nog is back and has an opponent tailor made for him to beat. As long as his arm has recovered fully, this will be a one sided beat down as Nog has a better chin, better BJJ, Herman isn't an amazing wrestler and Nog probably has better striking too.

My pick: Big Nog, bet at -350 or better, Herman if he's better than +550 due to HW randomness. I also like Big Nog inside distance if the prop has a decent price on it (say -150 or better)

Light Heavyweight Glover Teixeira vs Fabio Maldonado

One guy got beat up by Kyle Kingsbury, the other guy beat down Kyle Kingsbury and was allegedly ducked by a host of top 15 LHWs.

My pick: Glover by TKO

Will bet Glover to -350, or Maldonado at +700

Welterweight Jon Fitch vs Erick Silva

Wrestler vs dynamic striker. Hopefully Fitch is going to sleep. Could go either way and the odds say as much. Staying away from this one, but hoping Silva wins.

Light Heavyweight Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado

If the odds are the same as last time I like Prado at +400ish, he was looking good out there until he got poked in the eye and Davis is one dimensional.

My pick: Prado at better than +300, otherwise probably stay away

Welterweight Demian Maia vs Rick Story

Maia is tailor made to beat story, a good but not great wrestler with good but not great striking. Nothing Maia hasn't faced before. If he loses it'll be a close decision the way he lost to Munoz, but Story is way smaller than Munoz and Maia has sweeps, subs, and striking that is roughly on par with story. If Story is on top on the ground its a flip, if Maia is it's a lock, and on the feet it's a flip. Remember, he clinched with Kim and got his back BEFORE the injury and Kim is a similar fighter to story only slightly better.

My Pick: I bet 5u on Maia at -125, and like him to -150 or so. He's -135 at the moment.

Preliminary Card (FX)
Featherweight Rony Mariano Bezerra vs Sam Sicilia

Sicilia has no technique compared to Rony and Jason will pick him apart enroute to a late TKO or 30-27.

My pick: Bet Rony Jason to -300.

Heavyweight Gabriel Gonzaga vs TBA

Depends who it is. Gonzaga should beat Mitrione narrowly if that's the fight. I'd love to see them throw Pat Barry in there. Obviously no analysis until we know his opponent.

Lightweight Gleison Tibau vs Francisco Trinaldo

Massaranduba Trinaldo was an undersized MW on TUF Brazil and looked very skilled but out of his league there. At his natural weight class, he's a monster. Tibau is good, but passive. Massaranduba should beat him. Tibau does have more experience though. I think Trinaldo will be a small dog, when he should be a small fav. Bet Trinaldo to -140 or so or Tibau at +200 or better.

Featherweight Diego Brandao vs Joey Gambino

Brandao will blitz him in the first round, or have enough cardio to win the first two this time. Brandao to -230 or so, only because of his questionable cardio.

Preliminary Card (Facebook)

Welterweight Sergio Moraes vs Renee Forte

Moraes looked slighty better on TUF. Lean Moraes but if Forte is +200 or better i'd go him. Moraes to -150 or so.
Middleweight Luiz Cané vs Chris Camozzi

Cane has fallen a lot but he's still better than Camozzi. Cane to -220 or so
Lightweight Cristiano Marcello vs Reza Madadi

Neither guy is good but Madadi is slightly better. Madadi to -150, if he keeps it standing Marcello's standup is pretty bad.
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Old 10-06-2012, 01:16 PM   #5059
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Re: MMA Thread

Also, Rich at -278 is very very tempting but i'm going to wait and hope for the Macau money to come in on Le as the local favourite. I'll end up with 10 units on Rich though most likely regardless.
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Old 10-06-2012, 06:03 PM   #5060
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Re: MMA Thread

Pretty much agree with everything.
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Old 10-06-2012, 06:34 PM   #5061
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Re: MMA Thread

On another note, I can't wait to see who Thaigo Bodao faces next.

Plus, they need to make Cezar Mutante vs Daniel Sarafian asap, since Sarafian got injured and that was supposed to be the final of TUF Brazil. The TUF Brazil guys are awesome.

One or the other on the Australia card please since it's the next card i'll get to go to live?
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Old 10-06-2012, 07:30 PM   #5062
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Re: MMA Thread

Some more early lines up. Only +290 for Prado so far but I will wait and hopefully get him at over +300 when Pinny lines etc come up. -325 for Glover, meh. Big Nog -260 tho.

Looking like nothing much on the card I like. I will be betting Silva (Edit: Erick, that is) and Prado, and maybe Tibau depending on odds, but Swoop's writeup has me worried as Trinaldo may be underrated if he was fighting at the wrong weight class during TUF. Won't have any other bets. I might end up betting some stuff where I have small leans the same way people here favour (Madadi for e.g.). Have to see who Gonzaga is fighting as well I guess.
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Old 10-06-2012, 08:09 PM   #5063
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Re: MMA Thread

If anyone feels like betting on Invicta 3, which is happening right now, I like Julia Budd @ 1.3 and Jessica Penne @ 1.24. Have no idea if they're +EV really and am fading some pretty serious juice but I'm going to bet them anyway because I'm a degen.

Database likes them (from what little data could be dredged up) but I also like both these bets on handicapping grounds. Julia Budd has only lost to good fighters you've heard of - Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes - and has beaten decent opposition such as De Randamie. Her opponent has spent her career fighting fighters you've never heard of at events you've never heard of. 1.3 seems generous.

Likewise while Jessica Penne doesn't look to be any kind of world beater, her opponent has spent her whole career fighting in no-name promotions in Japan. This is going to be the same as Hiroko Yamanaka who repeatedly beat up random chicks in these "Jewels" promotions, then came to Strikeforce and fought de Randamie and looked utterly hopeless.

Bah, just seen that in the time I took to write this up theyve shortened to 1.28 and 1.21. I'm hopping on board anyway.
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Old 10-06-2012, 08:10 PM   #5064
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Re: MMA Thread

I think I'm going to parlay them together actually, that seems like the degen way to play this.
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Old 10-06-2012, 09:01 PM   #5065
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Re: MMA Thread

Budd won, her opponent was seriously like 5% to win if that. She didn't want to get into a striking war because she couldn't win at it, so she bullrushed her. Budd just pinned her against the cage, got double underhooks, wrestled a bit til she was worn out, takedown, full mount, pound face until referee intervenes. Honestly hard to see how the other girl wins when she doesn't even have a puncher's chance and looked to have 0% chance of winning a grappling war as well.
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Old 10-06-2012, 09:04 PM   #5066
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Re: MMA Thread

Any books have the Dave Bautista fight tonight? I'm looking to fade him, his opponent is fat and old, but has fought professionally 44 times.
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Old 10-06-2012, 09:11 PM   #5067
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Re: MMA Thread

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Any books have the Dave Bautista fight tonight? I'm looking to fade him, his opponent is fat and old, but has fought professionally 44 times.
Not that I can find or I'd probably join you.
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Old 10-06-2012, 09:15 PM   #5068
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Re: MMA Thread

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Looking like nothing much on the card I like. I will be betting Silva (Edit: Erick, that is)
Got our money down on Erick. Got some at 1.91 like a week ago and the rest at 1.87. He'll be a 2-star play for 2u. I feel like he's going to shorten further but it's just a hunch.
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Old 10-06-2012, 11:01 PM   #5069
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Re: MMA Thread

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Some more early lines up. Only +290 for Prado so far but I will wait and hopefully get him at over +300 when Pinny lines etc come up. -325 for Glover, meh. Big Nog -260 tho.

Looking like nothing much on the card I like. I will be betting Silva (Edit: Erick, that is) and Prado, and maybe Tibau depending on odds, but Swoop's writeup has me worried as Trinaldo may be underrated if he was fighting at the wrong weight class during TUF. Won't have any other bets. I might end up betting some stuff where I have small leans the same way people here favour (Madadi for e.g.). Have to see who Gonzaga is fighting as well I guess.
Trinaldo is a LW who was fighting at MW on the show. He got eliminated by Thiago Bodao who is pretty good, who in turn got eliminated by the guy that won the show. He then dispatched a much bigger (but admittedly mid level at best) Delson Heleno pretty easily fighting at MW on the finale. His only loss is to Yuri Alcantara and he won and never lost the Jungle Fight LW title.

Basically, he didn't look amazing on the show because he was undersized, but he came out with a point to prove and if he shows up the way he did against Heleno and Tibau shows up the way he did against Nurmagomedov and Dos Anjos, Tibau is going to be in for a beating.

Tibau has more experience and good takedown defense, but Trinaldo's striking is excellent at LW and he won't be at a size disadvantage for the first time in a while. Remember, he was fighting TWO weight classes above his natural weight class.

Wait and see where the odds are, but if Tibau is a favourite like I think he may be due to Trinaldo being relatively unknown, i'll definitely get on Trinaldo.
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Old 10-06-2012, 11:03 PM   #5070
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Re: MMA Thread

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Got our money down on Erick. Got some at 1.91 like a week ago and the rest at 1.87. He'll be a 2-star play for 2u. I feel like he's going to shorten further but it's just a hunch.
How do you see the fight going? Blitzes Fitch and KO's him fast like Hendricks did, or does some damage, gets taken down, but eventually hurts Fitch standing like he did to Brenneman and gets a finish?

I hope he can get it done, but Brenneman did take him down, and i'm a little bit scared he's going to get LnP'd for at least 2 of the 3 rounds. If Fitch can't take him down within a minute though, Silva will win.
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Old 10-06-2012, 11:04 PM   #5071
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Re: MMA Thread

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Not that I can find or I'd probably join you.
Which promotion? I'd be worried about a fix to be honest if it's a shady one (eg. Batista's opponent being told to either stand or take the fight to the ground for bonus money, whichever Batista is better at)

I'm in to fade Batista too if he's a decent fav, his MMA career will be even worse than Bobby Lashleys.

It does make me with Kurt Angle was still in his physical prime and without a messed up neck though. Angle could have been a beast in the LHW or HW division in his prime.
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Old 10-06-2012, 11:14 PM   #5072
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Re: MMA Thread

also worth noting without the ****** juice of the early books, Prado will be better than +300 on Pinn and 5d if prices don't move and Glover will be -300ish

Big Nog at -240ish should be value too, he won't lose in Brazil to Dave Herman unless his arm isn't healed or some sort of random freak injury like Bigfoot/Browne or Maia/Kim

Glad I got in early on Maia, the odds are consistently getting worse

GSP is probably a steal at -350 too right? I mean, Condit is one of my fav WWs and a fav over pretty much every other WW, but Jake Shields beat him and if GSP uses a smart game plan (jab, spam takedowns and 'safety first gnp' if not winning the standup) then Condit's basically down to a puncher's chance. I suppose there's the layoff, but GSP is a professional, trains hard and should be ready.

Kampmann's been lucky twice recently but he has a lot of heart and Hendricks is getting seriously overrated. I'd take GSP at -700 vs Hendricks fwiw, I don't see him being better than GSP at anything at all. Logically I should pick Hendricks but I can't shake a gut feeling that Kampmann's going to find a way to win (probably after taking a beating in the first round like usual)

Also, if Bendo fights smart he will crush Nate Diaz. Diaz only beat Cerrone because Cerrone forgot he is allowed to kick and attempt takedowns. Bendo's striking is good enough he won't get totally outclassed standing and if he ignores the taunting and takes Diaz down, his submission D is good enough to win via ground and pound or win all of the rounds enroute to an easy decision. I don't know which of them I dislike more, Bendo, Diaz and Maynard are my three least favourite LWs because **** bendo for 'beating' edgar via losing 4 rounds and his holier than thou BS, Nate Diaz is a punk and Maynard is a whiny *****. I can't wait for any of the LWs I like to get a title shot against one of those three. It would be nice if Frankie Edgar, multiple division champ when he gets Aldo's belt would return to defend his LW title against Bendo one more time, but I doubt it so... Pettis to KTFO Bendo by showtime kick please?
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Old 10-06-2012, 11:32 PM   #5073
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Re: MMA Thread

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Which promotion? I'd be worried about a fix to be honest if it's a shady one (eg. Batista's opponent being told to either stand or take the fight to the ground for bonus money, whichever Batista is better at)

I'm in to fade Batista too if he's a decent fav, his MMA career will be even worse than Bobby Lashleys.
"CES MMA", with CES standing for Classic Entertainment and Sports, whoever they are. Bautista won anyway apparently, TKO in the first round.

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How do you see the fight going? Blitzes Fitch and KO's him fast like Hendricks did, or does some damage, gets taken down, but eventually hurts Fitch standing like he did to Brenneman and gets a finish?
No idea. Never seen them fight. Essentially I'm betting that Fitch is significantly worse now than he was last time he fought nearly a year ago. I'm not convinced that in a fight like this you can predict how it will go. Before Struve v Miocic everyone was acting like the only question was whether Struve could get Miocic on the mat or whether Miocic would KO him first. Instead it turned out Struve had matured as a fighter and was able to simply find his range and outfight Miocic standing. Silva is a guy with a bunch of career submission wins so he may be able to hold his own on the ground, so this hopefully won't be like Shields vs some chud with no TDD or something where the fight is completely predictable. Whether Silva comes out swinging and KOs him in 30 seconds or whether he damages him gradually and gets a late TKO or a decision win or something I have no idea.
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Old 10-07-2012, 01:21 AM   #5074
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Re: MMA Thread

I see people everywhere saying there's good value on Silva at these odds, and I think its the opposite.

A 12 second KO loss is at worst a display of a couple seconds of poor striking defense, and at best a fluke, so I don't think you can read much into the Hendricks fight. Before that he had a very close fight with BJ Penn which I thought he won, and defeated Thiago Alvez, a dangerous striker, for the second time.

Besides the Hendricks few seconds, his only loss since 2002 is GSP. I think that Silva being an exciting up and coming prospect, and Fitch being a generally disliked fighter is skewing a lot of people's views on this fight.

There are not a lot of welterweights in the world that I wouldnt take Fitch against at evens..
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Old 10-07-2012, 02:16 AM   #5075
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Re: MMA Thread

i feel like silva will own him. he is a freak of nature. i also feel like lastnight was a giant suckout and i win there 8/10 timez
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