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Old 01-11-2020, 01:25 PM   #50226
RB87
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Re: MMA Thread

Yeah I think Lewis smashes Latifi.

You can tell by his build that he isn't a natural heavyweight, going to have to put on a lot of muscle to deal with the bigger guys in the division.

Really bad match up for his first fight at a higher weight class.
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Old 01-11-2020, 07:50 PM   #50227
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Re: MMA Thread

I like McGregor at +850 to win by decision
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Old 01-13-2020, 07:21 PM   #50228
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Re: MMA Thread

Anthony Pettis is suing USADA because he gashed his hand taking a piss test 2 hours before his fight against Nate Diaz. Apparently Duke Roufus begged him to pull out of the fight. WTF is USADA doing piss testing fighters right before the fight anyways? Why not piss test them the day before or possibly after the fight. Fighters shouldn't have to worry about taking a piss test in the hours leading up to their fight.
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Old 01-14-2020, 04:14 AM   #50229
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Re: MMA Thread

I had the interview on in the background so I might have this wrong, but I think he said it was his second test on fight day also, insane.
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Old 01-15-2020, 10:55 PM   #50230
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Re: MMA Thread

Conor sounded like he was gassed at press conference lol. He better hit Cowboy with lucky shot or he's gonna be tired.
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Old 01-17-2020, 06:31 AM   #50231
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Re: MMA Thread

Quiet on here given that its a big card this weekend.

Don't have much betting wise.

Got 30 on Pettis KO at 8.5
100 on Brian Kelleher at 2.2

Thats it so far don't really see that much that sticks out as decent value.
I do feel like this Cerrone price is starting to get to a point where I can't ignore it despite this being a bad match up for him.

Interested to here anyone elses views on decent value spots this card.
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Old 01-17-2020, 11:31 AM   #50232
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Re: MMA Thread

Did a bit more research today, ended up taking Gaedlha at 1.91 and also to win iniside the distance at 7.0.

Did not realise she was training under Mark Henry and Ricardo Almeida which gives me a bit more confidence. Obviously she has the big advantage in grappling and her striking looks competant enough that I don't think she is a at a huge disadvantage there.

Also seems like the drift is turning so its pretty happy to take her odds now.
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Old 01-17-2020, 02:36 PM   #50233
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Re: MMA Thread

careful betting ME because it can end with in 60 seconds.

Lewis had a nice few pokes to his stomach previous fight and did not show any problem in his gut, so any supposed inside path about touching him up (toe pokes) around the guts to get him reeling is questionable.

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Old 01-18-2020, 07:13 PM   #50234
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Re: MMA Thread

Tanking Conor -277 and Conor wins in first 2 rounds +127 today

Gl all
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Old 01-18-2020, 07:35 PM   #50235
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Re: MMA Thread

Holm is the biggest value bet of the card at 1.72 straight up!

Compare that to Suduk vs Fili, and imo while odds are exactly the same, I think Fili has much more of a chance to win. Holm should be 1.3 or so, huge value, just can't see her losing ever to Pennington.

Conor should win, he didn't piss Cowboy off like Hernandez did, so I think we see our usual timid cowboy, who will end up in the fetal position after a few body shots.

Coboy making up all kind of excuses in the presser, talking about how he can't just shoot on Conor to wrestle **** him. Starting to feel like he going to be taking a dive. He also said he will give the fans what they want and stand with Conor, which is obviously the worst possible game plan to fight Conor, even if you yourself are primarily a striker, you still just need to grind him on the ground.

So either Cowboy takes a dive or he is a massive moron and decides to stand with Conor, either way I don't like betting Cowboy with this in mind.

Otherwise, you can make a good argument to bet Cowboy, very good odds, he's a natural WW, he's bigger and prob stronger, he's got great subs, he's more well rounded and he's been very active.

In fact you can make a great case to bet Cowboy but because of the uncertainty, not willing to bet him.

Last edited by White_Gatsby; 01-18-2020 at 07:49 PM.
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Old 01-18-2020, 07:53 PM   #50236
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Re: MMA Thread

I really like what Conor is doing in regards to fighting at 170. You can see he is preparing for the Khabib 155 fight. He is purposely added muscle, strength, weight. If he stays at 170 for a few fights, fights bigger, stronger guys, he can eventually cut back to 155 and be much stronger imo.
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Old 01-18-2020, 07:56 PM   #50237
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Re: MMA Thread

UFC 246 Risk $4,121.46

Conor McGregor/Donald Cerrone Over 1 (-145) $145.00 for $100.00
Conor McGregor/Donald Cerrone Over 1 (-150) $150.00 for $100.00

Raquel Pennington wins by decision (+165) vs Holly Holm $200.00 for $330.00

Maurice Greene (-115) vs Aleksei Oleinik $230.00 for $200.00
Maurice Greene (-120) vs Aleksei Oleinik $600.00 for $500.00
Maurice Greene (-125) vs Aleksei Oleinik $125.00 for $100.00
Maurice Greene (-125) vs Aleksei Oleinik $250.00 for $200.00
Maurice Greene/Aleksei Oleinik Under 1 (-159) $317.46 for $200.00
Maurice Greene/Aleksei Oleinik Under 1 (-150) $320.00 for $200.00

Brian Kelleher vs Ode Osbourne: No Bet

Diego Ferreira (-225) vs Anthony Pettis $450.00 for $200.00

Roxanne Modafferi (+600) vs Macey Barber $200.00 for $1,200.00
Roxanne Modafferi/Maycee Barber Over 1 (-120) $240.00 for $200.00
Roxanne Modafferi/Maycee Barber Over 1 (-125) $250.00 for $200.00
Roxane Modafferi wins in round 2 (+3150) $30.00 for $945.00
Roxane Modafferi wins in round 3 (+4000) $30.00 for $1,200.00

Andre Fili/Sodiq Yusuff Fight Does Not Go Distance (-140) $140.00 for $100.00

Tim Elliott vs Askar Askarov: No Bet

Nasrat Haqparast vs Drew Dober: No Bet

Justin Ledet vs Aleksa Camur: No Bet

Sabina Mazo (-110) vs J.J. Aldrich $220.00 for $200.00
Sabina Mazo (-112) vs J.J. Aldrich $224.00 for $200.00
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Old 01-18-2020, 08:04 PM   #50238
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Re: MMA Thread

Cowboy in there earning a nice pay check is a huge win for UFC and its story imo, fight tastes like double chocolate ice cream with strawberry on top.

What ever happens later tonight, Cowboy is the winner along with all MMA fans that love UFC.
Great event, great fight. Cowboy is going to be one of the best fighters Conor has fought regardless,

Conor should fight with zero expectations of blowing through Cowboy or having any big advantage, give the fighter max respect and get a feel for what is going on with the different weight, timing, power, warm into it and don't force it, cowboy is going to watching 0-o he burns out and cowboy warms up... going to get real interesting real fast.
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Old 01-18-2020, 08:23 PM   #50239
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Re: MMA Thread

Mazo is Cowboy and Aldrich is Conor. Whoever wins this fight put the house on them in the main!
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Old 01-18-2020, 08:25 PM   #50240
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Re: MMA Thread

Beautiful knees by Cowboy. Conor is bloodied and battered. Conor may be gassing a bit.
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Old 01-18-2020, 08:37 PM   #50241
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Re: MMA Thread

Both these dudes think they are gonna do big things in the UFC. One of them probably won't be in the UFC much longer.
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Old 01-18-2020, 08:46 PM   #50242
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm super confident that Conor is going to embarrass cowboy on the feet in the main, hope he finds the quick finish for me I'll make a small loss if he wins but doesn't win inside the 2 rounds or a nice scoop if he does

Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if Conor wins in 39 seconds or something and puts him out cold

If I was going to hedge I'd say cowboys only chance is a middle rounds sub but pretty happy to just take the Conor side

Khabib is a uniquely horrible matchup for him if he's taking this fight seriously cowboy is the easiest matchup in the top 5 for him
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Old 01-18-2020, 08:59 PM   #50243
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
I'm super confident that Conor is going to embarrass cowboy on the feet in the main, hope he finds the quick finish for me I'll make a small loss if he wins but doesn't win inside the 2 rounds or a nice scoop if he does

Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if Conor wins in 39 seconds or something and puts him out cold
I wouldn't be shocked but it seems unlikely. I expect Conor to pace himself in this fight to conserve energy. Cowboy needs to use his kicks. If it turns into a boxing match then obviously he'll get lit up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Khabib is a uniquely horrible matchup for him if he's taking this fight seriously cowboy is the easiest matchup in the top 5 for him
Yes, this is obviously the most favorable matchup for Conor. However, I've heard a lot of people including media act like Cowboy is an easy fight. That is absolutely not the case. Conor may make it look easy but Cowboy is a super legit dude. If you look at his last 8 losses all those guys would be favored or essentially flips vs Conor right now and over the time period he lost those fights Cowboy defeated 16 guys including the likes of Dunham, Barboza, Jim Miller, Eddie Alvarez, Jury, Alex Oliveira, Cote, Matt Brown, Yancy Medeiros, Mike Perry Al Iaquinta...those dudes have a whole lot of UFC wins themselves.
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Old 01-18-2020, 09:17 PM   #50244
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
I'm super confident that Conor is going to embarrass cowboy on the feet in the main, hope he finds the quick finish for me I'll make a small loss if he wins but doesn't win inside the 2 rounds or a nice scoop if he does

Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if Conor wins in 39 seconds or something and puts him out cold

If I was going to hedge I'd say cowboys only chance is a middle rounds sub but pretty happy to just take the Conor side

Khabib is a uniquely horrible matchup for him if he's taking this fight seriously cowboy is the easiest matchup in the top 5 for him
I'm really curious to see if his ko power translates to 155 and beyond. Personally I'm not really seeing it, I think he will struggle to put guys away at those weight classes.
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Old 01-18-2020, 09:21 PM   #50245
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Re: MMA Thread

That isn't remotely true re Conor being a dog to all of cerrones losses a couple of them tops and he's def a fav vs several of them including the bmf himself masvidal
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Old 01-18-2020, 09:24 PM   #50246
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Re: MMA Thread

I'd have Conor as an underdog vs:
Gaethje
Ferguson
Edwards
Till
Masvidal

Flip to slight favorite vs:
Lawler
RDAx2

Conor still has a lot of question marks having not been that active, having added a lot of muscle weight, having not fought much at this weight, and not having a huge deal of success at these higher weight classes yet (2-2 in the UFC).
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Old 01-18-2020, 09:32 PM   #50247
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Re: MMA Thread

I got Cerrone winning r3/4 although more likely in 3 via a clinch type shot that hurts Conor and then the sub on the ground. RNC.

But much more likely Conor KO's him in Rd1... I think a left body kick starts the finish. Conor's power drops as he fights taller guys as does everyone and therefore he has no future in the division against the elite.
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Old 01-18-2020, 09:38 PM   #50248
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Re: MMA Thread

I will say I think Masvidal may be the most overrated fighter in the UFC right now. I heard a radio show (might have been Brett Okamoto) say that Conor was going to destroy Cowboy but then say Conor has absolutely no chance vs Masvidal. That makes no sense to me whatsoever. Masvidal has got some of that Sokoudjou hype right now (someone ITT used that term to describe Johnnie Walker). Masvidal loses a lot of fights. Suddenly he has 2 quick knockouts and a dominant performance vs Nate (who potentially couldn't train cardio) and now everyone thinks Masvidal is a world beater.
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Old 01-18-2020, 09:44 PM   #50249
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Re: MMA Thread

People have short memories and forget Wonderboy made masvidal look bad

I think Conor is a small fav vs gaethje and a flip vs Ferguson

Clear fav vs masvidal

small dog to till due to the sheer size difference

Edwarss it's super hard to say
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Old 01-18-2020, 09:48 PM   #50250
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Re: MMA Thread

My point remains though. The only dudes Cowboy loses to are super legit. Sometimes he loses in dominant fashion but it's still quite impressive to win all the fights he has. The last 3 fights he won he was a dog.
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