I do think the lines have gotten a little bit sharper then they were say two years ago. Early lines get hammered pretty quickly too.

Think its more likely your just running bad. Had a decent year overall just the last few events been a bit rough. Every split decision has gone against me but these runs happen.

Cheers mate, hopefully can run a bit better early 2020

i slept through the last 6-7 fights. how did most people score the rakic-volkan fight?

i had three losing months in a row this summer, and they were all close to as big as the single biggest winning month i'd had. i thought i had lost my edge, and i started questioning if i even had one to start. i took 4-5 weeks off from betting, just doubled down on the film and it started going back up again. this is gambling, crazy bad runs can happen.

Korean Zombie went from coaching himself off youtube videos to having the best coach in the game, Eric Albarracin. His wrestling is obviously greatly improved compared to when Aldo took him down 5 times. Albarracin predicted Zombie would finish it within 2 rounds and he did just that.

BTW, apparently Zombie has a double vision issue and is getting eye surgery. 145lb champ Volkanowski has a broken hand and is getting hand surgery.

Charles Jourdain called out Cub Swanson, wishing him a speedy recovery after Swanson tore his ACL, Meniscus grappling Jake Shields at Quintet Ultra. When I watched that match the only thing I could think was Kron Gracie has to feel like the dumbest person on the planet right now after only attempting 2 takedowns in 15 minutes vs Swanson.

Thanks gods of variance.

Badr Hari messes his ankle up and can't continue after dropping Verhoeven with a headkick.

Will take it.

just one input about ufc, maybe its right, maybe it is wrong, but regardless ill say it.

One thing that is coming to my mind is the female energy about ufc in the crowd needs some uplift or allowance, like its wrong to be a women and wanting to express style energy passion, a longing about this sport, visually in my mind what comes up is this ascot racing and ladys get to sport, out do, art about hats i have no idea why this is so strong in my mind.



I dont know if there is any dress sense restrictions in place but remove that and promote freedom of personal attire, you come to a UFC event you better be on on point :-) busting a move is fine.


Sparkle on man,

man, what?

Im saying that women heading to UFC event and not sure how to drop some style or celebration, could integrate hats as a fashion display, its already in place with fighters like Jessica Andrade (native american), Khabib,
Its a sweet extra play that costs little and adds an interesting dynamic,

heading into the 2020's,
nice to think of ways to compete with the swinging 20's

google image keyword: ascot "head dress"

maybe its a bad idea, I can think two good reasons why not, reduction in viability behind seat rows, women getting high strung when property gets damaged.

[some thing for people to gawk laugh admire and talk over leading up to event, give the cameras some thing to pan on, other than line of 6 dudes with beer in hand]

I honestly love your contributions to the thread Balla. They're all over the place but it's always a highlight to read your posts

So sad that Choi's wasting his talent trying to brawl as a technical striker

Looks like the next card is Conor vs Cowboy; i'll be playing Conor by TKO/KO and Conor by TKO/KO in r1/2 if the prices are good, and might play some straight up too if he gets down to less than -200 assuming he looks in decent shape and seems to be taking the camp seriously etc or might look at the Conor by TKO or Dec line for extra value because obviously he's not going to attempt to sub Cerrone if the line is any better than straight up

I happily fade Pettis a lot but he may be undervalued at near +200 against Ferreira who I back a lot, I was expecting to be on Ferreira as a dog here a lot but if Pettis is a big underdog that has to not be too bad even though Ferreira is high up on my list of lower weight class guys who may be roiding and is also probably an underrated fighter in general - until now anyway

It feels like Ferreira is the prospect and Pettis is old, but Pettis is actually two years younger than Ferreira, granted he's probably taken more damage and been in more wars etc

No idea what to make of the rest of the card will have to do a bit more research etc

I'd be surprised if I don't end up on Conor in some capacity though. I feel like if he wasn't taking this return seriously he'd just retire with infinite money - his star power has taken a hit after back to back losses granted one in boxing and he will never, ever get the Khabib rematch he wants if he loses this fight - he might never be the same again if he's too busy committing crimes in Ireland and doing cocaine, but honestly he looked fine against Khabib and I expect him to win easily against Cerrone unless he's a shell of his former self

no chance ferrera loses imo, unless pettis bombs him with a perfect flush body kick. ferrera just walked down mairbek taisumov down for 3 rounds and broke him. his pressure is going to be pettis' kryptonite, and he's a better grappler than pettis. this line should be over -300, and i've already got a big position.

also nasrat haqparast is a class above drew dober, i wouldn't go much higher than this current line, but anything under -300 should be okay.

This is kind of a crazy statistic, but Conor McGregor has been in 25 MMA fights and he has won by KO or TKO in 18 of them. That left hand is a nuclear bomb.

Yeah and thanks man, I appreciate that. The weird thing about betting sports is that when you're running good it feels like the money comes so easy, it's natural to lose a little bit of your work ethic and take your foot off the gas pedal, and then you go on a losing streak and you start questioning if you still have an edge or if you ever even had one in the first place.

I do think that MMA lines are getting sharper. MMA is not a sport that lends itself to statistical analysis as easily as say, baseball (or dare I say even football) does, which means that it's harder for Vegas to handicap and as a consequence results in more opportunity, but I also think that there are a lot of statistics that weren't necessarily available a few years ago and some of these stats really lend themselves to modeling.

That having been said, a market is still a market (be it stocks, UFC, porkbellys, whatever) and it's ultimately still an exercise in mass psychology / bias and there will always be opportunities to profitably trade, I just feel like it's getting tougher. Or maybe I'm just a whiny little b*tch on a losing streak and I need to stop complaining and start watching more tape, lol.

Anyways, happy holidays to everyone in this thread. Hope you all had a great 2019 and hopefully we can all make some good money in 2020.

Donald Cerrone went his first 23 fights without being KO/TKO'ed. In his last 26 fights he has been TKO'ed 6 times in the last 7 years. Not too shabby really. His early TKO losses were from body strikes. I'd need to review his recent fights to see if he's become more chinny, but he's never been KO'ed.

I would think Conor would be a heavy favorite to win if this fight goes to a decision. It seems Cowboy's best chance to win is to knock Conor down and then submit him. All 4 of Conor's losses have come by way of submission. 7 out of 10 of Cowboy's KO/TKOs have come by way of head kick.

Cowboy hasn't had more than 1 takedown attempt in any of his last 5 fights. 0 or 1 takedown attempt is definitely his norm. In a few fights Cowboy has gone takedown crazy but wasn't too successful in those attempts. 1 for 9 vs Leon Edwards (Loss) 1 for 10 vs Robbie Lawler (Loss) 1 for 7 vs Benson Henderson (Win). 4 for 7 vs KJ Noons (Win)

you can literally bet the house on "Cowboy takedown attempts UNDER 1/2" in that fight

they will stand and bang and Cowboy will get merked unless Conor completely fell off the cliff and did hookers and blow for the entirety of his training camp

I tend to think Cowboy will just stand and bang but it really makes no logical sense whatsoever. Conor is one of the greatest standup fighters in MMA history and he poses very little threat on the ground. Cowboy's wrestling isn't that great so he may not have a choice in regards to the fight taking place on the feet but the best formula to beat Conor is pretty clear in a 5 round fight. Use your size to put him against the cage and force him to wrestle early in order to wear him out some so that he is less dangerous on the feet. All of Conor's finishes have come in the first 2 rounds of a fight. Hell, he's only had 3 fights go into the 3rd round. Holloway (Win), Diaz (Win), Nurmagomedov (Loss).

I still don't understand why this fight is taking place at welterweight. Perhaps Conor wanted it at WW because he has been bulking up for a potential Masvidal fight or Diaz 3? If you look at this match singularly it would be a big advantage to Conor to have this at LW instead.

Also, I wonder who the backup for this fight is if Cowboy can't go. I suppose Uncle Dana will be on the phone frantically calling all sorts of people but the most obvious choice is Anthony Pettis (blah) who has a 155lb bout that evening (double blah).

There's no question in mind which Conor will show up to the fight. Yes he'd been out ****ing around and doing stupid **** but it sounds like he is super focused for this training camp doing things the right way again. Love him or hate him, Conor shows up on fight day. I can't recall a time where he didn't. I'm sure some would argue vs Khabib, which I totally disagree with. In the first Nate fight Conor made some tactical mistakes and some execution errors but mostly I think that was a learning opportunity which should serve him well in this fight.

The bigger question to me is which Cowboy shows up. Is it going to be the guy we've seen turtled up on the canvas or the dude that's ready to go through hell and back? Is he just going to stand and bang or is he going to fight more strategically? These are the real questions. Everyone knows which Conor is going to show up.

Seen a recent interview with Dana where he said Conor wanted it at 170lbs as he wants to fight pretty soon again after the cowboy fight, and didnt want to do the weight cut to 155 twice if he could get away with it. Which it seems he has.

So Conor is being a diva.

Everyone is confidence this fight is for Conor to win. My question is.. Why doesn't anyone bet their house on Conor???

Last time I told people to bet the house nobody did so I'm done telling people to risk their house. I guess they use bankroll management and ****. Anyways, I wouldn't bet the house on Conor in this fight. Let's see who Tito fights next before we go betting away our homes.

Why is that? It seems like most fans and their grandmas are expecting conor to win. Are you implying conot might lose or some rigness might go on with the bookmakers??

btw, when you guys bet on fights, how much do you guys put down?? A few hundreds or thousands?

Why do you think this?

I think if Cowboy has an edge its in the grappling seems like it would be smart for him to mix in a few takedowns even if just to give Conor more to think about.

This makes the most sense. Without fear of being taken down, Conor has nothing t worry about. A TD for a few minutes with GnP should cause real concern to Conors team as the gas tank will start draining.

Anyone betting Rizin/Bellator card?

Lots of people betting Rampage, been training with Sam Calvitta probably on all the supplements available and apparently looking good. Seen as how he still has a solid chin and Fedor's chin seems completely gone. I might put some action down to give me some interest on NYE.

Cowboy wants to slug it out in this one. Maybe if he starts losing badly he'll attempt a desperation TD but it would be too late by then.

all of the above is obv imo I have no inside info

Rampage is a terrible matchup at this stage for chinny Fedor if Rampage is in shape. Not sure how 260lb Rampage can be in good shape but they say he is. I'm a bit skeptical but even if he's just in decent shape he should be a big favorite, IMO. Rampage by KO.