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Old 01-12-2012, 07:40 PM   #26
Swiiftx
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
-104 now, and I thought he was value at -140. At -104 the value is insane, hence 7 of the 8 units I have on this card are on Vitor. Either going to make a bunch or lose a bunch, we'll find out soon enough I guess. Vitor/Rumble is the true main event here for me since i'm not an Aldo fan. it always surprises me that Aldo has more fans than Cruz and Edgar when every Cruz and Edgar fight is amazing at the lighter weight classes, people don't like fighters who win exciting decisions I guess? To be fair I haven't seen some of Aldo's WEC fights though.

I think Etim wins about 1 in 3 times or so, very slight value at +235. Barboza should be favourite, but not by quite that much. Remember, he had a close fight with Njokuani who it turns out isn't as good as we thought and he arguably lost the Pearson fight.

I feel like the most likely outcome is a close 29-28 UD or SD and while that favours Barboza since he has the home crowd, I have to go for the underdog if I think it's going to be a close decision most of the time.

Over/under on percent of the time that Palhares does something immensely stupid mid-fight? He's at 3 from 8 so far in his UFC career...
I've changed my mind about palhares mike, rumours going around mike has a problem with his knee and we all know what that means(palhares specialty, sub by knees,anklelocks etc)... Beside, Palhares is a huge ***** dude for his weight class and he's already fought mike type of fighter, the mid wrestling dudes and so far dealt with them good.

Njon has very good standup and that's what you should draw from his bout with Barboza when Barboza defeated him, that barboza has top notch striking since it was a striking match. Njon match against Castillo you can really only comment on his grappling/being pressured against the wall game.
Also if you gona comment on Barboza's performances, take a look at Terry Etim's, he hasn't exactly faced anyone decent(all of his wins are against ppl who are no longer in ufc), with the only exception being Sam Stout pretty much. Whilst Barboza has faced 2 very good fighters.

Also people like Aldo bc he's an existing fighter as well + he finishes fights in spectaculiar fashion. I'm not taking anything away from Edgar or Cruz though, just saying, especially Cruz, I think he has a really cool style even if he rarely finishes fights. There's a free fight on ufc, Aldo vs Jonathan Brockins, who won the TUF recently and he got absolutely destroyed by Aldo.

Last edited by Swiiftx; 01-12-2012 at 07:46 PM.
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Old 01-13-2012, 03:11 AM   #27
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Re: MMA Thread

anyone know why vitor was the favourite and now rumble is the favoruite? do people know something about vitor that we dont? i bet pretty big on vitor at -135 and -115, now its -105 vitor, -125 rumble
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Old 01-13-2012, 04:35 AM   #28
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Re: MMA Thread

What props you guys liking for UFC 142?
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Old 01-13-2012, 07:08 AM   #29
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Re: MMA Thread

Dude who knows a ****load about MMA and actually sells his picks for a major site said on Twitter he favors Johnson over Vitor...always worries me when people this knowledgeable see it diff from me. But I'm just not seeing why Belfort shouldn't be favored here.
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Old 01-13-2012, 07:46 AM   #30
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Re: MMA Thread

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Dude who knows a ****load about MMA and actually sells his picks for a major site said on Twitter he favors Johnson over Vitor...always worries me when people this knowledgeable see it diff from me. But I'm just not seeing why Belfort shouldn't be favored here.
Meh, I got 2 predictors I watch on youtube both favor Vitor. Pretty much their thoughtprocess is Vitor is too fast for Johnson and is going to KO/TKO him in first, even though they see there's possibility of Johnson outworking Vitor.

I think this fight is a dnb atm and I'm not surprised the lines shifted towards 2:2.
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Old 01-13-2012, 07:46 AM   #31
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Re: MMA Thread

lol touting mma picks?

let me guess luca fury?

Touting is just proof he doesn't make money betting mma.
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Old 01-13-2012, 04:29 PM   #32
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Re: MMA Thread

honestly vitor is gonna ko him. his speed is the key in this fight. sure johnson has power but vitor has better boxing and straighter punchs. vitor ko round 1!
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Old 01-13-2012, 05:31 PM   #33
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Re: MMA Thread

johnson 197
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Old 01-13-2012, 05:45 PM   #34
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Re: MMA Thread

2u on Johnson +102.5
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Old 01-13-2012, 05:57 PM   #35
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Re: MMA Thread

is Johnson being so huge good or bad, from what i notice anyone who misses weight drastically, ends up gettin owned.
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Old 01-13-2012, 05:59 PM   #36
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Re: MMA Thread

Usually people really dehydrate themselves when strugglign with weight. AJ obv knew he wasnt hitting and said fk it and didnt bother. He wont be able to carb up tonight but if the weigh in tomorrow is early enough then it's a big benefit for him imo. If the weigh in is late then it'll help vitor more.
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Old 01-13-2012, 06:01 PM   #37
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Re: MMA Thread

crazy how homeboy made weight at 170 i heard he walks around at 220-230
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Old 01-13-2012, 06:02 PM   #38
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Re: MMA Thread

rumble can only weigh up to 205 tmr. the weigh in just happened vitor has a days rests to eat and get hydrated. the line was in favor of rumble now it changed back to vitor -135 rumble +105. interesting..
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Old 01-13-2012, 06:07 PM   #39
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Re: MMA Thread

??? I'm still getting Vitor at +105 which seems crazy since basically AJ can't rehydrate before the fight tomorrow
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Old 01-13-2012, 06:13 PM   #40
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Re: MMA Thread

He isnt going to have to weigh 205 at ringside they will set a weigh in time that he has to make 205 for earlier in the afternoon.

The earlier this is the better for AJ obviously. The fact he cant bulk tonight is bad but he wouldnt have dehydrated too much today obviously being 197
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Old 01-13-2012, 06:23 PM   #41
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Re: MMA Thread

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He isnt going to have to weigh 205 at ringside they will set a weigh in time that he has to make 205 for earlier in the afternoon.

The earlier this is the better for AJ obviously. The fact he cant bulk tonight is bad but he wouldnt have dehydrated too much today obviously being 197
he's probably walking around at 215ish though, I see this as a huge disadvantage for him, having to hydrate that much the day of is going to be rough. He's missed by 7.5 lbs before and lost to Rich Clementi, but beat Yoshida when he was 6lbs over. 11 lbs is crazy, I don't know what t make of it.
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Old 01-13-2012, 06:39 PM   #42
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Re: MMA Thread

I've arbed out, no news about weigh in time and prices moving against me most places.

Might move in again either way depending on news.
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Old 01-13-2012, 07:20 PM   #43
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Re: MMA Thread

supposedly he needs to be less than 205 at or around 2pm local time.
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Old 01-13-2012, 07:28 PM   #44
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Re: MMA Thread

Yeah this is horrible for Johnson since he now has to do 2 cuts. Dude will be zapped tomorrow.
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Old 01-13-2012, 09:41 PM   #45
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Re: MMA Thread

Wow what is the deal with anthony johnson missing weight in this spot?? I guess maybe he timed it wrong when traveling to brazil who knows but that is just insane to miss at 185.
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Old 01-14-2012, 09:11 AM   #46
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Re: MMA Thread

He's done it two other times, so idk, maybe he's just lazy, all im wondering though if this is good or bad news for him when he fights.
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Old 01-14-2012, 09:47 AM   #47
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Re: MMA Thread

King Mo said in an interview if it goes more than 1 round then Johnson is ****ed cardio wise after having to go through emergency rehydration then stay dehydrated tonight

I'm absolutely loving my 7 units on Vitor at -110ish average now I feel like Belfort has gone from being a 60% fav to a 70% fav at least.

Got half a unit on Etim, a quarter on Stout, a tenth on Olivera, Silva and Massenzio

Thinking i'm going to do a units worth parlays including Etim Silva Aldo Belfort and Stout probably as well not sure on which combos yet i'll decide once the lines are out I guess.
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Old 01-14-2012, 09:51 AM   #48
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Re: MMA Thread

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He's done it two other times, so idk, maybe he's just lazy, all im wondering though if this is good or bad news for him when he fights.
At best it is neutral. I don't think anyone would deliberately force themselves to flucuate their weight this much before any competition, except bobybuilders. It is not optimal metabolically to do so. No trainer would encourage their fighter or boxer to put themselves in this position the day before a competition. More reason to bet on Belfort, I hope!
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Old 01-14-2012, 09:59 AM   #49
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Re: MMA Thread

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King Mo said in an interview if it goes more than 1 round then Johnson is ****ed cardio wise after having to go through emergency rehydration then stay dehydrated tonight

I'm absolutely loving my 7 units on Vitor at -110ish average now I feel like Belfort has gone from being a 60% fav to a 70% fav at least.

Got half a unit on Etim, a quarter on Stout, a tenth on Olivera, Silva and Massenzio

Thinking i'm going to do a units worth parlays including Etim Silva Aldo Belfort and Stout probably as well not sure on which combos yet i'll decide once the lines are out I guess.
Etim is going to lose, most likely by unan dec. The only way I see Etim winning is by some miracilious sub which happens like a max of 20% of the time.

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Old 01-14-2012, 02:29 PM   #50
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Re: MMA Thread

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King Mo said in an interview if it goes more than 1 round then Johnson is ****ed cardio wise after having to go through emergency rehydration then stay dehydrated tonight
Yea this is very possible.

One of my thoughts before this fatboy **** though was Belforts cardio.
He hasn't been out of round 1 in 3.5 years, and from what i've seen AJ can take a punch.
Also he hasn't fought a wrestler (that didn't get KO'd in 1 second) since when?

I'm still not sure what to make of this fight. Maybe i'll just go down with the ship and load some more money on AJ if the line keeps moving.
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