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Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Nice write up Gatsby
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Originally Posted by RB87
Added
£200 on Blagoy Ivanov at 1.86 and £100 on Corey Anderson.
Gatsby pretty much coveered both fights. Lewis is on the slide and if he can't find the KO he will be in trouble. Ivanov is as durable as they come and took a 5 round beating off JDS. Confident he can wear down Lewis for a late finish or decision.
I love Johnny Walker but feel like he is running hot and has that Houston Alexander aura at the moment. If you watch his fights where he doesn't find the finish early, his overall game is pretty incomplete and has some big holes on the ground.
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Originally Posted by Sect7G
+1.
Gatsby picked 4 of my bets for me. Thx alot
Thx guys, took me a few days to do some research and I actually really enjoyed the process. I usually don't do this much research, but this is about to change. I want to take this much more serious and see if I can make anything out of this. Sports betting is tough but it can be done and I feel MMA is probably the best sport to achieve success, I know some of you do pretty good betting mma.
Sect7G, which 4 fights do you agree with and which don't you, always willing to hear a counter argument to my logic.
I had Blagoy over Lewis but at weigh ins, I'm hearing how Lewis is looking great and had surgery, less back problems, new nutritionist and is training more. This is not great news tbh, not sure how to interpret this, perhaps a no bet. The surgery is neutral and could still actually be a problem, as it takes time to heal, back problems take a long time too.
Which brings me to the Walker shoulder injury, I feel like this might be an issue as well or him, shoulder injuries usually need more time to heal, perhaps it wasn't a massive injury, idk, Luke Thomas was going on about his own injuries and that it took a few years to fully recover.
Any of you guys think like this? An issue I have with a guy like Corey though, and this is just from observation, you have guys that are just not that guy, you know what I mean, take football for example take Christian Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney. While Rooney is a good striker he isn't on Ronaldo's level, not even close imo. Rooney's a work horse and can score goals, but he will also shoot the ball 50 yards into the stadium, miss, even choke shots, sure he's solid and everything but he can't be trusted to come through for you in those times he needs to. He just doesn't have the skill, he doesn't have that special thing that only a few athletes have.
If you put 2 fighters up against each other, sometimes you just know, that 1 fighter is just not that fighter, they just can't get it done vs the other. It's hard to describe and I don't even know if it's a thing, it might just be me looking for **** that's not there.
I'm taking skill set into account, there fight IQ, there willingness to win, their toughness, how they are as a person, how talented. I do think there are advantages to be had when looking at more than just skill set vs skill set? I am trying to come up with an overall picture, take several attributes, skill, fight iq etc and weigh them up vs the other fighter to find an edge.
Training camp, do they fight with a game plan or not. Some fighters could be winning more fights had they just fought according to a specific game plan, many simply don't, this has to be taken into account.
Question, do you agree with me and we should be looking to more than just skill set and if so which other things do you take into account.
I am feeling more and more like this with fighters, you just can't trust them enough to bet them comfortably. Take the Michael Johnson fight, and indeed a few other of his fights. He is talented and a great fighter but he has ways to lose fights, such as the Emmet fight for example, clearly winning and just needs to chill the fook out and ride the clock, but what does this guy do, he finds a way to lose with 1 minute left, or his last fight, he just chokes or ****s up or what ever, again in the last minute.
I am still learning and with experience I hope I will be able to suss this, I feel it might be an overlooked issue. I still catch myself not taking bad fight iq into account, and afterwards I'm like see, I told you, but get suckered into thinking that everybody else must be right or else MJ wouldn't be +300 vs Stevie Ray.
Corey was doing good vs OSP, I think he was taking over, winning the fight and OSP was gassing and he manages to **** it up. So while I think Walker is a hype job and is overall game sucks, he obv has that KO power and is very confident. I am leaning away from my Corey bet, will bet him but small, because I just know he aint that guy, it's close though, as I do think he beats everybody else in the division with the exception of Reyes and Jones. Can Anderson prove me wrong, I don't think so, he just doesn't have it, it's not something you can acquire over time, you are born with it imo. He can improve but in my opinion he needs a mental coach and he needs to change his mentality. He still won't be that guy with the "it" factor but he can improve to the point that he will be able to at least beat Jones at least 1 out of 10 times. He is also not killer enough, which I also think might be an attribute worth looking into.
Walker does have that it factor, which is why this bet concerns me. He does have the ability to beat both Jones and Reyes, but prob more a punchers chance but I give him a much better chance than a guy like Corey. Walker has that talent (KO), Walker is that guy right now, I just do't know how much it is because of the hype behind him.
Last edited by White_Gatsby; 11-01-2019 at 08:19 PM.