i think dariush has gotten kind of underrated tbh. he's still a really ****ing good grappler, though it is worrying how hurt he gets in every striking exchange. even though frank looked amazing last fight, i don't really rate nick hein and i think frank will be sloppy enough on the feet to get taken down. thiago moises is a pretty big puncher and wild brawler, and dariush dominated that one (though he did get hurt).

So far I like a few dogs, I am probably an outlier as most are favoring the other side but that's ok.

Bets I like so far:

Camacho at 2.4
This is a pretty good price imo, he throws more volume, can outwork the grappler and can finish Dariush, can Dariush sub Camacho, sure he can but Frank got decent wrestling and bjj, I like my chances. Dariush has declined and his chin isn't what it once was.

Alex White at 2.75
Feel like Fiziez is unknown and unproved tbh, he looked pretty hesitant in his last fight and got finished by a spinning kick, not exactly the high level kick boxer people think he is, I mean had been ko'd by some fluke shot, sure, or grinded a dec because his opponent wrestled him but it was a spinning kick to the head, a kick that the guy tried a minute before the 2nd one ko'd him. Some teachers are really good at teaching and suck at the discipline itself, lets see if this is the case with Fiziez, I'm not sold tbh.

White does have wrestling and is a decent boxer himself, and if he decides to wrestle the guy, he will likely win the fight imo. Great odds at 2.75, if you ask me.

Laureano Staropoli at 2.5. I like this guy, I think if it goes to a dec, he wins it a ton, he throws a lot of volume and doesn't mind taking a punch to land his own. Now that said will he be able to take a shot from Salikhov? I think he will and I think he will outwork him for dec win. Salikhov is a sniper and counters a lot, so he can put Staropoli's lights out but willing to chance on the dog odds! Might take a hedge with a R1 finish for Salikhov.

Will bet Loma at 1.8 but small bet, I think she has the better skill set for sure, but she's smaller, lighter and I'm not sure how she will handle that, will she get man handled and grinded down, taken down a lot and can't get up, I'm not sure, her clinch game should be pretty strong though, think it's a bet nonetheless, her opponent is terrible.

Evloev 1.53, was going back and forth and you can make an argument to take Barzola at 2.6 but I feel Evloev is prob better in all departments, and is a relentless wrestler aka Khabib, he's got the samba background and loves to grind his opponents out.

I'm on Askren here at 1.57, not the best odds, and again can make an argument for a Maja win, even by decision. He doesn't have to worry about being ko'd, so no stamina lost from being hit in the face, he might have more gas left as a result. Could see him winning rounds, by punches and failed sub attempts, he could sub Ben, I guess.

Though I think ultimately, Ben gets it done in Singapore, his 2nd home. Just don't see Maja subbing a top wrestler like Ben, sure Ben has started off shaky in the UFC but he has had notable wins prior to the UFC, I feel like this is his fight to get back in the game, it's his kind of fight. I'm pretty confident he will win this. Anybody think he can sub Maja? I'm betting a late sub as well, perhaps in the 4th?

I'm betting both HW dogs as well, low level HW's, anything can happen logic, might as well bet the 3.0 dogs.

Parlay MJ and Gane, Evloev, Askren. Will parlay a combo of 2 and 3 and also play all 4.

Everybody overlooking White, I think this will be the surprise fight!

Interesting that Jimmy Smith thinks MJ vs Stevie Ray is almost a coinflip not sure myself.

Never been that impressed with Stevie Ray but he is game, could MJ be a little gunshy after getting KO by Emmet?

Ray should be 0-4 in his last 4 fights given the Ayari decision.

Anyone else think this is a close fight?

If Stevie can wrestle and hold MJ down, then sure, perhaps it's a lot closer, but I don't think he can tbh. Not sure what he sees, as MJ will be better everywhere. He will be a lot lot faster as well.

If there was ever to be a massive main event that would fall apart in the final days I'd sure as hell much rather it be this main event than a main event of real consequences.

Frankly, I'm more excited by some other fights on the card like:
Gastelum vs Till
Kevin Lee vs Gregor Gillespie
Corey Anderson vs Johnny Walker
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brad Tavares (albeit mostly as a showcase fight for Edmen, IMO)
Plus I'd like to see how Vincente Luque does with another step up in competition.

Why did Till accept that fight against Gastelum? His chin is starting to look weak, Gastelum might make it a glass chin...Think he touches him and Till will be in trouble.

I'm assuming they made that matchup because Gastelum is a small MW. Still, it makes no sense to me. Till is ranked #9 at WW so now he moves up to MW to fight the #4 contender?! Weird.

Personally, I think Till has been brought along way too fast. Woodley exposed him in a big way. He really had no business even being in the octagon with Woodley. Till is still just 26 years old. I'd rather he fight unranked guys as he adjusts to the new weight class and continues to improve as a mixed-martial artist.

Unless the Adesanya war has depleted Gastelum badly I think he should handle Till fairly easily

Pretty lol that Nate fails a test and they wanted to wait til after the fight to deal with it, will be interesting to see how it plays out - Conor is the obvious guy to step in but it's probably too short notice for him and he's probably gonna fight Cerrone or someone in Jan

Askren might want the fight if he takes no damage against Maia and dominates but I really doubt they'll make that and have him fight twice in two weeks

They could try and move up a title fight from the next card but it would badly disrupt everyones preparation

If Conor can't fight Masvidal (i'd be down for that for sure assuming Conor's in shape) you have to put Leon Edwards if he wants it right? (I just googled and read that this is the plan if Nate can't fight, which makes sense)

Leon Edwards is supposedly the front runner to replace Nate if he doesn't fight which is tbh infinitely more interesting to me than Diaz/Masvidal. I grew up pretty close to Leon and would love to see him fight for the title and there'd be no way to deny him if he beat Masvidal and vice versa for Masvidal.

If Nate does fight, does anyone see any realistic path to victory for him? I think Masvidal is definitely better on the feet and has strong enough TDD to stop any takedown attempts by Nate who isn't the most prolific of takedown artists. Am I naive to think that when they're fighting for the BMF title he's less likely than normal to shoot for a takedown and this is very likely to be fought predominantly on the feet? Masvidal available at 1.64 seems too good to miss but very interested in everyone else's thoughts.

He accepted because if he wins he's maybe at most 2 wins away from a TS. And really that's what everyone under 30 should be striving for. Does it have risk... most definitely and he probably will get ko'd. But this is the fight business and this matchup should be a dream opportunity for him as he has everything to win and a loss will put him where he truly belongs... fighting guys in the top 15.

Managed to get 6.5 on Maia winning via submission which is pretty sick.

Like a few dogs on the Bellator card Isiah Chapman at 8.0 looks way too big.
Also don't mind Lencioni at 3.9, Van Roosmalen is a devasting striker but we have seen it time and time again this doesn't always transition to MMA.

van roosmalen missed weight by ten pounds though.

i just got ed ruth tonight assuming the line doesn't move too much from current. i'm gonna watch some karl albrekston fights too. might be interested in putting some down if he's a good grappler.

I also thought if the winner of this fight is impressive they could get that fight. It's a ridiculous proposition though and I think the only way it could have possibly played out like that is if Nate pulled out the day of the Askren/Maia fight.

Me as well. To casuals, not so much.

Everyone under 30 should be striving to get KO'ed? You're right, this is the fight business. A business where athletes have proven they can be successful later in life than in other sports. That is, if they don't go through too many wars and still have their chin intact. I can't even grasp why you would want a young fighter to risk the longevity of his career when he does not even possess the skills to be in his prime yet.

Nate won't be shooting for td's, he never does. Fight will most likely be contested standing. I think it's a lot closer and actually pick Nate to win, I'm a very small minority who thinks Nate will win that fight.

My reasoning is that I don't think Masvidal will ko Nate and as the fight progresses into the later rounds I think Nate can take the fight away, most likely with a dec win. He should be throwing more volume especially in the late rounds.

Yup agree with Crusher here, while it should be the goal, it comes with too many consequences right now for Till. Getting Ko'd fight after fight can't be good for his future, this is exactly how guys end up with a glass chin.

He's much better off fighting some bums and guys that don't have that power, give himself a few years to recover properly. Gain some confidence, win a few fights, build it up, go on a few fight win streak, he can easily fight for the title before he's 30!

At first glance I'd of agreed with Sect as indeed nothing to lose and everything to gain but like Crusher points out, these kind of fights can change the course of 1's career. It's not exactly the smartest way to go about things.

Bellator 231 Risk $1,432.14

Roy Nelson (-175) vs Frank Mir $350.00 for $200.00
Roy Nelson (-179) vs Frank Mir $357.14 for $200.00
Roy Nelson (-180) vs Frank Mir $360.00 for $200.00

Phil Davis/Karl Albrektsson Over 2½ (-230) $115.00 for $50.00
Phil Davis/Karl Albrektsson goes 3 round distance (-185) $92.50 for $50.00

Ed Ruth/Jason Jackson Over 2½ (-115) $57.50 for $50.00

Ilara Joanne (+211) vs Bec Rawlings $100.00 for $211.00

what do you like about joanne? her record is really unimpressive (though obv so is rawlings')

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU4qOFTk3rc

this fight rules btw, jab knockdown into rnc 18 seconds into the fight. also, i know it was her first fight, but getting knocked out by notoriously pillow handed viviane perreira isn't a good look.

No bets for me so far. There are a few nice prices vs market out there on my locals but gonna take a look later on I think

I've gone back and forth on a few of the fights might bet a few later might not

Thompson price seems ridiculous vs Luque, yes Luque is good but it's a HUGE step up so Thompson's just going to win every round against him unless his chin is absolutely and completely shot (which is possible and he is getting old so might fall off a cliff soon but it's probably more likely Pettis just caught with with the perfect counter)

Might see if there are any options to hedge with Luque by KO and get on WB there

wowowoowow ed why didn't you grind him the whole time. what a steal. ruth's a dog though, i gotta give him credit.

UFC on ESPN+ 20 Risk $2,834.29

Ben Askren (-160) vs Demian Maia $160.00 for $100.00
Ben Askren (-170) vs Demian Maia $0.00 for $100.00 (free play)
Ben Askren -5½ points (+160) $125.00 for $200.00

Michael Johnson (-245) vs Stevie Ray $490.00 for $200.00
Michael Johnson (-255) vs Stevie Ray $510.00 for $200.00
Michael Johnson wins inside distance (+190) $75.00 for $142.50

Frank Camacho (+150) vs Beneil Dariush $100.00 for $150.00

Ciryl Gane/Don'Tale Mayes Over 1½ (+137) $75.00 for $102.75

Muslim Salikhov/Laureano Staropoli Over 1½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
Muslim Salikhov/Laureano Staropoli Over 1½ (-179) $178.57 for $100.00

Randa Markos (-110) vs Ashley Yoder $220.00 for $200.00

Rafael Fiziev vs Alex White: No Bet

Movsar Evloev wins by 3 round decision (-115) vs Enrique Barzola $57.50 for $50.00

Maurice Greene (+215) vs Sergey Pavlovich $100.00 for $215.00
Maurice Greene wins by submission (****5) $25.00 for $228.75

Loma Lookboonmee (-130) vs Aleksandra Albu $130.00 for $100.00
Loma Lookboonmee (-130) vs Aleksandra Albu $0.00 for $100.00 (free play)
Loma Lookboonmee (-131) vs Aleksandra Albu $131.00 for $100.00
Loma Lookboonmee wins by TKO/KO (+630) $25.00 for $157.50
Loma Lookboonmee wins by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Loma Lookboonmee wins in round 3 (+2200) $10.00 for $220.00

Jeff Hughes (-222) vs Raphael Pessoa $222.22 for $100.00

It's not like this is the first time Nate has faced a better striker than him. Conor is a way better striker than Nate and Nate beat him. Pettis is a better striker than Nate and Nate completely dominated that fight. Nate only took Pettis down one time and yet he vastly outstruck Pettis in every round. In round 3 Nate outstruck Pettis 78 to 23.

Nate beat Pettis with a lot of clinch work. However, he claims that wasn't even his game plan. How exactly he'll approach this fight I can't say but we can expect him to put a lot of pressure potentially with a combination of high volume punching and clinch work. He'll want to turn it into a dogfight with the hope that Masvidal will wear down and his superior cardio will prevail late in the fight.

That's the Kimbo Slice backyard street fighting mentality that I'd expect from Masvidal, not from Nate. Nate's mentality is more that anything goes (within the contexts of the rules). That's the way he's always fought and his fans love it. Certainly his fans don't expect him to stand back and be a punching bag for Jorge Masvidal.

That being said, Nate has not had more than 1 takedown in a fight in over a decade so I wouldn't expect many takedowns from Nate.

Took Dariush -161, market's been leaning that way + I really think he's a way way way better fighter than Camacho his chin just sucks. Basically, if Camacho doesn't knock him out quickly I think Dariush outclasses him and -161 is enough for me (edit: did the conversion wrong got -161 not -163)

Took a tiny Greene sweat at +205 but just sweat size. Only decent size bet is Dariush so far

edit: got a little Evloev dec -117 and small on Staropoli +145 just for a sweat too

Dariush makes or breaks my card. I keep changing my mind on Maia vs Askren, Maia has the better standup probably? and obv better sub game but Askren has top position any time he wants it. Tough one to call.

Live price +300 too high on b365 on Barzola even tho Evloev narrowly ahead in r3 at halfway pt since its prob 1-1

I'm hoping Evloev can hold on for the decision for me its a close fight

No idea how to score that but i'd much rather be on Barzola at 4 bucks than Evloev dec at -117 - granted -117 is probably about a fair price for the decision here as r2/3 both competitive but r1 clear Evloev

I had r2 leaning Barzola and r3 a total flip ironically Evloev got more sig strikes r2 and Barzola in r3 so who knows

Hmm ok evidently the market had it right I think but curious whether he won r2 or r3 on all 3 judges cards or if it was a mixture of the 29-28s etc

When I heard 30-27 knew I was good but the 29-28 could have gone either way. Evloev narrowly won the fight as a whole so fair outcome but still a sweat