this

so disrespectful, intentional absolutely,.

Almost all sites are money back in the event of a no contest with bets voided - the book I bet on did that anyway and pretty sure all books void in cases of a NC

Apparently being a quarter Mexican and showing huge warrior spirit didn't help Carla Esparza get any love from the fans. After seeing how disrespectful the fans were towards her and throughout the night I was really happy they didn't get to see a main event tonight.

I think Esparza lost the fight on the whole and by round won 1 cleanly lost 1 cleanly and the other rd was very close and in Mexico I can't believe she got the nod.

The fans were loud which is good... but total trash at the end. There is 0% chance Stephens was faking it and the foul was like a cat paw... hard to look accidental when slashing like that... but it is what it is.

It's a little crazy to me that so many people are going after Jeremy Stephens (especially people like Paulo Costa, who should know better.) Jeremy Stephens is one of the true OG gangsters, if he says he couldn't go then that should be beyond reproach. What's he supposed to do, risk losing an eye?

Hope he comes back and beats the sh*t out of Yair Rodriguez, I really don't like him talking **** like that after he was the one who broke the rules, not Stephens.

Yeah the whole debacle really reflected poorly on the Mexican fans in general we get it you're pissed demand a refund from the UFC or something don't throw garbage into the octagon

It was def surprising the two very close decisions went against the home town fighter; the Esparza fight was close under 10 point but she lost the fight as a whole, and the Moreno fight I thought he pretty clearly won if you're correctly scoring effective striking and grappling over octagon control, obviously his opponent had more control but Moreno was the only one who did real damage in the fight and for him to get a split he has to lose a round where yes he lost 4 minutes of the round without taking much damage but he dropped his opponent near the end of the round so it's harsh not to give it to him

Dalby might be worth a look as a dog he had a big slump but did beat EZDS and then go to a draw with Till in a fight he survived until Till gassed then took over granted that was a while ago

Granted he lost to some worse fighters after that and he's getting old so idk maybe not I haven't seen his recent fights outside the UFC

According to wiki his last fight ended via NC (surface deemed unsafe) in round 3 that has to be... an unusual finish lol

Idk there are a lot of guys whose recent fights i've missed on this next card so probably won't be super active for it will take a look later in the week

just as a fan of mma in general, you have to go watch his most recent fight. it's ridiculous.

https://www.ufc.tv/video/nicolas-dal...e-warriors-106

definitely do not show it to someone as an introduction to mma though, you'd lose them forever.

I need a new bookie. 5Dimes is still okay for football but on the UFC they're literally limiting me to $100 bets on fighters and $20 bets on props (lol).

Since I can't bet them anyways, I'll just give this one away: It's worth taking a look at the decision and go the distance props, if you know how to do the math to work out the implied probability of the events occurring then you can sometimes find some insanely good deals if you get creative. I think on Jon Jones I was able to work it out so that Jon Jones had to win by KO or submission against Thiago Santos 70% of the time in order for me to lose money, otherwise I would make $ (meaning if either Thiago Santos won or Jon Jones won by decision at least 30% of the time, I would be profitable).

If anyone has any recommendations on US friendly bookies, I'm all ears.

For the upcoming UFC fight I haven't done a ton of homework but I think the best bet is Diakkese against Lando Vannata because Lando Vannata sucks and is one of the more overrated fighters in the UFC, he fought the fight of his life against Tony Ferguson but otherwise has never impressed me and is one of those guys who has a real low ceiling in terms of talent and athleticism. I loaded up on Diakkese at -130 in Vegas this last weekend, unfortunately I'm apparently not the only one with a low opinion of Vannata because the line seems to have moved. Still think there's some value at current prices though.

Otherwise I kind of like Cannonier at +200 but Hermanson is the real deal, so IDK how profitable this one is.

Hoping that OSP still has some lead left in his pencil, got him at +180 and added a little more at +200.

That's it for me on this upcoming card. To be honest I've kind of lost a lot of my enthusiasm for UFC betting since 5Dimes restricted my account, I've made some really good $ doing it but there are so many fights these days and it's hard to keep up with all the fighters, it gets a little overwhelming, and if I can't bet large sums of money without flying out to Vegas then what's the point. Football is more fun anyways.

Agree with you on both Diakkese and Cannonier like both of those at current odds.

Need to research more but Di Chirico being a dog to UFC newcomer Muradov is interesting. Muradov hasn't being fighting UFC caliber opposition and also been outside USADA testing. I tend to think fighters with impressive ecords at regional level tend to get over estimated.

Di Chirico is a solid UFC level fighter should being coming off a win against Kevin Holland.

Di Chirico opened as a 1.5 favourite though so seems like someone is favouring Moradov big time or the odds are being manipulated.

i think that cannonier/hermansson line is pretty decent. cannoniers tdd has looked better lately (identifying whether thats a function of improved technique, opposition, or moving down in weight class is the key to handicapping this fight) but it's not ironclad and hermansson is a beast on top. the one thing that cannonier has going for him is that glover took him down repeatedly, but surviving three rounds with glover on top at least shows he's not going to necessarily be wiped out should he find himself under hermansson for a long stretch.

How is short notice lightweight Gilbert Burns a favorite vs Gunnar Nelson???

Looks like a bad matchup for Gunnar. 11 of Gunnar's last 12 wins came by way of submission. I don't know how good Gilbert's BJJ is but he's a multiple time BJJ world champ so it seems like a hard fight for Gunnar to win. Not saying Burns is Demian Maia good, but Maia made Nelson look like a white belt in that fight. Also, Burns is coming off a welterweight win over an undefeated Russian who was favored.

i'm not touching that one with a ten foot pole. don't have a good read on it at all.

Yeah agree with you both. Gilbert is an excellent grappler, he owned the Canadian Gangster who is a very good grappler in his own right. Gilbert is also a better athlete and is rapidly improving as a striker.

Gunnar is of course also a great grappler, not as good of an athlete, and probably more technical as a striker. Gunnar is very smart too. Overall, tough fight to get a read on.

100% agreed. I can't believe that Alexa just let Carla slide after rocking her so. You would've thought that she would have gone in for the finish. It's not as if Alexa appeared to be gassed.

ya i saw it when it happened and was like "wtf ive never seen it stopped from this..."

the mat was just so bloody and gross. both had terrible bleeding wounds and prolly would have just been called in the ufc

I took a few early spots closing parlays with some other stuff, will obv rebet if they're not live on fight day

Nelson +117
Dalby +125
Hermansson -222

Will do some more research tomorrow if I can but those are my early leans, pity I didn't grab Dalby when he was +145 or whatever it was early when I mentioned it but all good

So far got.

£100 on Cannonier 3.14
£100 on Rountree at 1.9
£150 on Diakiese at 1.73

I like Cannonier the most out of all my bets don't think he should be above 2.5 IMO.

Might back De Chirico if I can get 2.5. Watched a lot of video on Muradov, he looks like a really good athlete and has been steamrolling regional competition. But he throws single shots, not much volume and not fought the best competition.

A few people I know that do well betting MMA are on Jury against Benson so probably going to see if I can get 3.0 or above on that.

Bellator 227 Dublin Risk $100.00

Myles Jury (+240) vs Benson Henderson $100.00 for $240.00

i think Cannonier is underpriced, hes looked so good at MW. remember he used to fight at heavyweight then LWH....

an early finish is possible, if it goes later rounds probably favours jack H.

Rountree is another solid pick imo

Naurdiev is a 23 yo fighting a 35 yr old guy should get a win here and is decent fav.

Macy C. is a girl im confidant in saying she will get a finish, lansburg is tough and ill def add a judges but i think shes gunna smoke her and badly.

Gunnar vs burns is weird, burns could just control him but hes going to be outsized i think coming up to 170. can gunnar keep it standing and probably win? if not i think burns controls him on the ground. the odds reflect my thoughts, no one else knows who tf will win this 1. i cant remember how good gunnars TDD is... . maia ****ed him up right? i guess ill pick burns.

what about this random prelim. Alen Amedovski 8-1 ALL finishes one loss by judges to Jotko. -120.VS john phillips "the welsh wrecking machine" guy is 21-9 and coming off 3 losses in a row. 0-3 in the UFC with 2 losses to sub. alen never subs and John has basically never been finished from strikes. this is my soulread, Alen A by judges +300 but ill pick him straight up too.

anyone watch cage warriors that big UK promo? How good is Jack Shore? his record is ****ing stellar and appears to be a literal murder machine 11-0 with 10 finishes. -165 against a guy who is 0-1 in the ufc 9-3 overall

Diakiese seems like the pick against lando but hes lost 3 of his last 4. not like lando is better record lately....i dunno if ill touch this one.

even though rountree looked great last time i still don't trust either him or cutelaba. rountree has looked rly susceptible to grapplers and although his cardio looked better against anders, anders fights at an unusually slow pace. if rountree has to grapple early, how will he look later in the fight? that being said, cutelaba totally feel apart and basically quit vs. glover in his last fight.

Added £200 on Jack Shore at 1.57

Purely based on his Pinnacle price coming in to 1.44 and hearing good things about him from his time in Cage Warriors.

I wound up with

Dalby +125 closing a parlay along with Hermansson -222 (other legs done)

Dalby i'm not sure sure on but he is fighting at home and I do make it a close fight. Hermansson has convinced me he's legit too and it was a good price vs market

Nelson closing a parlay at +117 with the other legs done

Short notice fight and he's the bigger guy; might be able to win a stand up battle or has a size advantage if it becomes a battle to claim top position in a BJJ war. Yes, Burns may be more seasoned in some ways but size does matter and also it's late notice for Burns

Diakese -150

Partially for the reasons already described in thread; he looked good at weigh ins; I got a great price vs market and partially because I realised I too have been guilty of overrating Vannata based on him rocking Tony Ferguson.

Diakese/Naurdiev parlay +130

Good price on both vs market decided to combine them. Not super familiar with Naurdiev but decided to go with it

Diakese/Oleksiezcuk parlay +133

Good price on both, OSP basically has a minute or two to take this to the mat and keep it there or grab a submission because he's ridiculously hittable and facing a guy with a ton of ko power who's on the rise. He's 24 and improving; OSP is 36 and not getting any better at this point. Also OSP won't win a decision standing he basically has to get dominant positions on the ground to do that. I really don't see OSP winning via anything except a quick sub or punchers chance but punchers chance is slim against a better striker.

Chiasson ITD +100

Good price vs market but also she looks ****ing massive at weigh ins, she's a beast and will almost certainly hulk smash Lansberg who looks ready to be ragdolled. Sure she might win a dominant 30-26 or something but I think she'll finish more often than not

Chiasson should be in atop contender type fight after this she's legit (I watched some of her UFC season) her wins aren't over the best comp but it's a super shallow division and she'll be ranked 6-8 with a win here (id jump her all the way up to 6)

and I have a tiny parlay of all of my picks for the card as well

Sort of wanted some Khalil too but overall money's been against him so decided to pass. I lean that way but not enough to fire it, same with the under on that fight

edit: Just saw I can get Shore -181 so adding some of that too; never seen him fight but ridic price vs market so why not and took a tiny 0.1u type bet on Khalil at -111 as well; would have gone normal size but overall steams been against him so just going tiny; Cutelaba has to finish him fast because he has no cardio if it goes past mid r2 Khalil will smoke him and in r1 both guys can finish too

UFN 160 on ESPN+ 18 Risk $3,771.00

Jack Hermansson/Jared Cannonier Over 1½ (-152) $152.00 for $100.00

Mark Madsen wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+2500 $40.00 for $100.00
Mark Madsen/Danilo Belluardo Under 2½ (+115) $100.00 for $115.00

Gunnar Nelson (+105) vs Gilbert Burns $100.00 for $105.00

Khalil Rountree (-110) vs Ion Cutelaba $220.00 for $200.00
Khalil Rountree/Ion Cutelaba Over 1½ (-112) $112.00 for $100.00

Michal Oleksiejczuk/Ovince St. Preux Under 1½ (-103) $103.00 for $100.00

Alex Oliveira (-140) vs Nicolas Dalby $280.00 for $200.00

John Phillips (+115) vs Alen Amedovski $100.00 for $115.00

Makhmud Muradov (-150) vs Alessio Di Chirico $300.00 for $200.00

Siyar Bahadurzada (+190) vs Ismail Naurdiev $100.00 for $190.00
Siyar Bahadurzada/Ismail Naurdiev Over 2½ (-157) $157.00 for $100.00

Brandon Davis (-145) vs Giga Chikadze $580.00 for $400.00
Brandon Davis (-145) vs Giga Chikadze $217.00 for $150.00
Brandon Davis (-145) vs Giga Chkadze $290.00 for $200.00
Brandon Davis (-155) vs Giga Chikadze $310.00 for $200.00

Lina Lansberg (+365) vs Macy Chiasson $100.00 for $365.00

Lando Vannata (+155) vs Marc Diakiese $200.00 for $310.00

Jack Shore (-155) vs Nohelin Hernandez $310.00 for $200.00

i didn't do any work this week. i just have brandon davis and gegard this week. giga chikadze has the biggest joke of a record i've ever seen. made money betting against him in the contender series, should do it again today. absolutely not a complete fighter. brandon davis obv isnt a world beater so its not a lock, but i like it at current price.