Whew, Mizuki wins a split. She deserved that win i've become a fan and I hope she gets some favorable matchups against girls her own size, she's definitely an asset and hope she gets on the Japan cards and has a good career in the UFC. I'm not sure i'd seen her fight before live despite being aware of her for a long time since I haven't watched many Invicta events.

I have Elizeu and Andrade closing two diff parlays from here, ended up biggest on Mizuki of any fighter so far on the card so it's going well so far

I might hedge some with Weili dec for the main, undecided but on Andrade for now

Added more Andrade at -170 since big steam and was leaning that way slightly. Weili could decision her but sure as hell wont finish. I think at some point Andrade will hulk smash her although Weili is good

Song wins a closeish decision in China; I feel very lucky they didn't rob Mizuki earlier now

No bet on the next one as markets leaning De La Rosa as a dog but I want Kara-France to win since i'm Australian so just gonna cheer for him, then hopefully get Elizeu and Andrade to finish off a very strong card

Going to tune in for the Andrade fight, from reading on Sherdog seems like a lot of home bias is going on. I think Andrade should finish Zhang but slightly worrying.

They did give the Mizuki fight to her and while most people had Krantz winning the first two the fight was compeittive

That said Mizuki in no way should lose a split; 1 and 3 were close but I had her edging all 3 rounds and she very clearly won the 2nd.

Let's go Zaleski, hope he finishes this eye gouging scumbag Li. I was very impressed with his last performance, he's been underappreciated in the UFC so far including by me until recently

And yeah re the main event if it's close good chance they give it to Weili; the UFC wants her to win and the crowd does too, but I think either Weili wins a lopsided decision or Andrade hulk smashes her I don't see that many scenarios where the 'correct' decision would be a 48-47 Andrade or anything. Leaning towards Andrade via raw strength and power, it shouldn't be a close decison but who knows

I'd be shocked if Zaleski can't handle Li, he should be better everywhere except maybe raw strength

10-9 Li due to the knockdown, hopefully Zaleski can recover. Fight was closer than I expected even before that

r2 close but gotta assume hes down two in China a lot. If it doesn't look like he has a shot at a finish I may sell my parlay bet live for a small loss if it looks like no way he wins. Sort of want to see how the Sherdog judges scored r2 first

edit: all 3 judges scored r2 for dos santos i'm not insane; I thought r2 was close, the commentary made it sound like Li was dominating. Still think Li will get it a lot in China even if Santos wins r3 but well see

wow im surprised though li won 2 fairly easily. ez ds landed some flush shots but they didn't bother li at all.

Wow, Li actually fought really well. Just shows how much wasted potential Jake Matthews has given how well he handled Li.

Fortunately was only a small 2-leg parlay that bricks on Zaleski, gonna roughly break even for the card if Andrade loses or win quite a lot for the card if she wins as I have her both straight and closing a 2 leg parlay

I had r2 close and 3 was close too prior to Li landing hard on Zaleski, but Li had won the fight as a whole anyway due to a dominant r1, whereas 2 was a flip round and 3 was too until the big shots that led to the finish

I hope Andrade wins. I know it's the Chinese government not the athletes that are being evil in Hong Kong and in general but I want Andrade to send the crowd home sad.

I hope they feed Li to an elite striker with TDD next. Ever since the blatant cheating vs Matthews I can't stand him and the UFC has an excuse to give him a top 15 guy who will beat the crap out of him next.

Wow really impressive from Li, lets go Andrade!

i have a sneaking suspicion that this is going to be a very close main event. i've been way off though so andrade prob knocks her out in under a minute.

Interestingly I don't think it's close at all; I think either Weili wins a 50-45 via technical superior standup or gets absolutely ruined via Andrade hulk smashing her (whether thats a finish via tko or ragdoll into sub or a dominant decision where Weili can't handle the power), I struggle to see how this ends up a close decision

We'll see soon I guess

Wishful thinking but imagine if she went full 'local' heel trolling the Chinese Communist Party in the post fight interview. Too much risk of death and Dana would have given all the fighter strict instructions since the UFC wants to be in China but imagine a post fight interview if Andrade wins by KO 'I crushed Weili like the CCP crushed protestors with tanks at Tianaman Square, stay the **** out of Hong Kong you commie scum, stop your genocide against the Uighur, Taiwan is the only real china, Free Tibet!' then walk out/try not to die

wtf i swear to god i almost typed zhang in under a minute to show how off i am but then im like nah thats too ridiculous.

Well that sucks. Impressive KO. Dumb to break even for the card after crushing early. Ah well onto the next

For f*** sake

in my mind i know everyone can be knocked out but, goddamn, i almost thought andrade was indestructible at women's 115

that was a pretty sick blitz/flurry attack by Weili. those ****ing knees in the clinch were nuts.

she has sick accuracy and some pretty impressive power to get the TKO like that against a champion that has been so dominant at 115. i mean andrade only just won the belt but shes been a killer at strawweight.

weili 20 fight win streak too lol teh fuh

I was too lazy to go back and watch old Zhang fights so I didn't have an opinion on this fight. I felt Andrade was the weakest champion in the UFC, but that doesn't mean much without knowing how good Zhang is.

I'm tempted to jump on the Zhang bandwagon from the Tatiana Suarez bandwagon. I do still think Suarez will be a problem for anyone in the division though. The biggest caveat being whether she has the cardio to go 5 rounds given she had her thyroid removed. Suarez didn't look too good vs Ansaroft. She gassed and she's still quite green in the non-wrestling aspects of MMA even though she's been in this game nearly as long as Zhang. Zhang beat up Andrade's body nicely in the clinch. That would be key against Suarez.

Vasiliy Lomachenko v Luke Campbell

in play £100 fight goes the distance heading into the 10th for £190 return

Someone really wnats big money on Khabib there was 30k stuck at 1.32 on an exchange a few days ago. 30k at 1.29 now as the price comes in, probably going to stick £50 on Dustin if this keeps coming in.

Dustin at this point is an assassin

Nothing Khabib can do will help his cardio in the late 3rd, 4th.

This is about playing chess with the worlds best chess player over 4 moves, vs the player that plays the best over 7,8 moves.

If your a super black hole that's great but what if your playing against another guy that is a black hole just as good but he is really special with his hands, iq, progression, cardio, and legitimately has put in his skin and bones into the game but added more than the sum of the parts.

Quality gets made, it does not just appear.


I don't know if Dustin Poirier has a really great home life? work life balance? taken up some external pursuit to mma or other but he is the man, not Khabib

He decides what happens in this fight, he is a man in control of his own destiny as short as that maybe.

Dustin Poirier many years ago was no body, muscles disconnected, core less, timing, eye


This guy today is a full bore MMA fighter that should not be scared of any human that ever lived let alone a limited one trick pony that some how is able to throw out a nice hand some how.


I have this Dustin inside the distance.

This fight was won and lost a long time ago, he committed to it and did it for a good reason,

Let the fight flow naturally, let the opponents weakness show and protrude as much as strengths do to begin.
This is going to be a good fight.


Team effort ftw....

Urijah Faber says Poirier has broken in fights before and the thing that sets Khabib apart from other fighters is his mentality. We just watched a textbook mental breakdown with Mitrione a couple weeks ago. I don't believe Poirier's mental game is as weak as Mitrione's but there's no way it's as strong as Khabib's either.

Poirier could catch Khabib and knock him out of course but it's not reasonable to expect that he will win a dog fight vs an undefeated fighter that has no quit and has controlled the clinch 87% of the time and controlled the ground 96% of the time in his UFC fights.

All comes down to if Poirer can stop the takedowns. From my memory, he has decent TDD so it won't be that easy (around the same 70 % of defended takedowns as al iaquinta, in that fight I think Khabib took him down r1/2 but then couldnt take him down in the later rounds).

Poirers standup is better than Al's I'd say, he's more powerful, has higher output and more variety, and if he's able to to keep it standing in the later rounds, I think he has a shot. Khabibs standup is also quite rudimentary.

Can't really compare Poirers mental game with Mitriones, Poirer has come back several times and has been in dog fights (Alvarez, Gaethje, Korean Zombie, Akira, .etc).

Khabib takes the 3rd round of and does not get take downs, because he's jsut too tired. He took the 3rd of vs Conor and Al, I suspect he does vs Poirier as well. The problem is that his opponents are equally or more tired but the key to victory might be in the 3rd round.

If you fight his pace in the fight and particularly the 3rd, you give him enough of a breather to wrestle **** you in the 4th.

I think Khabib gets it done, why doubt him but I'd rather bet Dustin at those odds. His wrestling is better than the last few guys Khabib has faced, so naturally Khabib might have do more word than usual, thus giving Dustin an edge his other oppenents didn't have, a fatiqued Khabib in later rounds, is a vulnerable 1, his striking is bad and his defence is terrible.

If they plan correctly and pressure at the right time, if they can mix it up and try to get Khabib to fight a different pace, Dustin could get it done. It's a plan that needs to be executed perfectly and Dustin needs some luck, he needs things to go his way, otherwise it will prob end up as they all do, ragdolled for 3+ rounds.

But I can see Dustin's wrestling making Khabib's life a little tougher, whether it'll be enough for him to get the advantage in the fight is to be seen, but Dustin is far the favorite in the boxing departement.

I like Felder as an underdog, think he's big value, though often when a fighter as lost a few fights, like Barboza has, they often get the win. Still think Felder's value though, he also is motivated to revenge his loss!