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Old 08-09-2019, 12:50 AM   #48976
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Knittle View Post
Continuing to crush womens MMA.

Excited for these next few cards. I've been CRUSHING my local bookie, so I guess I should post some plays here?
Always down to get some good WMMA tips since especially at the lower level I haven't followed WMMA as closely as I should have and I think a lot of people don't follow WMMA as closely as men's MMA so there is def value to be had there

I was on Granger too fwiw because of a combination of your tip + the line movement, cheers

Re: Pettis/Nate it will depend whether Pettis fights with a smart gameplan. You don't brawl with a Diaz, and i'm not sure Pettis has the takedowns to regularly plant Nate on his back without risking giving up his neck or whatever in the process of it so I think the right gameplan and one that will win is to kick from range while leading Nate around the octagon like a matador and refusing to engage his taunting/etc by getting into a punching-based brawl. Nate's going to walk Pettis down and try and get into a pressure/volume war, if he succeeds he'll win, and if it's a technical range based striking battle involving kicks Pettis should be able to outpoint him easily. It just depends who can fight more logically and without emotion I think especially for Pettis, sticking to the game plan for Pettis will determine how the fight goes
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Old 08-09-2019, 12:37 PM   #48977
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Re: Pettis/Nate it will depend whether Pettis fights with a smart gameplan. You don't brawl with a Diaz, and i'm not sure Pettis has the takedowns to regularly plant Nate on his back without risking giving up his neck or whatever in the process of it so I think the right gameplan and one that will win is to kick from range while leading Nate around the octagon like a matador and refusing to engage his taunting/etc by getting into a punching-based brawl. Nate's going to walk Pettis down and try and get into a pressure/volume war, if he succeeds he'll win, and if it's a technical range based striking battle involving kicks Pettis should be able to outpoint him easily. It just depends who can fight more logically and without emotion I think especially for Pettis, sticking to the game plan for Pettis will determine how the fight goes
The Pettis TD game has not been seen often but we do know he has one. We also know that Nate has zero TDD. His only TDD is that foes fear his guard. One of the multiple differences between Nick and Nate.

Pettis has only been sub'd once and that was an injury tap when he twisted his own back. A fair argument can be made that Pettis is a better submission fighter than Nate.

Zero fear of Nate's guard appears (in my view) to cause a chain reaction that renders his offense useless. His pressure game goes away because he'll walk into TDs. He can't call a time out by falling on his butt. He's left sitting on the outside eating leg kicks and/or getting taken down at will (RDA & Bendo). Josh Thompson not afraid anyone's guard either.

Unless Pettis pulls a Cerrone and fights stupid, which is possible, Nate should be the perfect opponent for him. Slower, no big power, no kicking game at all, and most important zero TD game.
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Old 08-10-2019, 06:45 AM   #48978
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Re: MMA Thread

Thinking about betting Oezdemir at -149; yes he has cardio issues at times but its 3 rounds not 5; Latifi is short and Oezdemir has a reach advantage; Oezdemir was beating Smith before the finish and had a close fight with Reyes its not like he's fighting cans and Latifi is getting old, Oezdemir is 6 years younger. I can see him finishing just as often if not more so and

Will think on it a bit more, not much I like tomorrow
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Old 08-10-2019, 11:29 AM   #48979
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Re: MMA Thread

i like rodolfo viera. piechota is no slouch, but he gassed hard against meerschart and i think rodolfo is just on another level on the ground obviously. the super top level bjj guys have looked rly good coming into mma lately and viera is an absolute horse(meat) of an athlete. his competition hasn't been super good yet, but Piechota's ufc wins aren't really anything to brag about, either.
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Old 08-10-2019, 11:34 AM   #48980
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Re: MMA Thread

Did a bit of research got a few lines im watching but will only bet if market starts to steam

So far I have

Oezdemir -149
Garagorri -125

Considering but prob wont fire

Kunchenko (hard to take down and Burns is primarily a sub guy), De Freitas and Macedo (just because of the steam)

I also expect Tecia Torres probably wins by decision but price isn't good enough

@Joe I assume you think he wins by sub if he wins?
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Old 08-10-2019, 12:04 PM   #48981
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Re: MMA Thread

yeah or g'n'p. def sub most likely.
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Old 08-10-2019, 02:39 PM   #48982
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Re: MMA Thread

I can't imagine there has ever been a championship fight where the winner of the previous fight is now a -1000 underdog.

Carmouche has victories over 2 of the 3 women's champions. Might have earned the hat trick had she faced Nunes early in her career.
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Old 08-10-2019, 03:57 PM   #48983
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Re: MMA Thread

Rapheal Nunes, small sweat +900 1st round ko (heavyweights man)

Kunchenko, +175 Judges

Tecia, -120 Judges

Bontorin -110

Alex Da silva +140 tko/ko/sub

Garagorri -125

Bobby Moffett +110 also decent bet +275 judges

Rodolfo Vieira -225

Luque -225 also prop +125 tko/ko/sub

Oezdemir +325 judges

one timmeee
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Old 08-10-2019, 04:41 PM   #48984
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Re: MMA Thread

UFC on ESPN+ 14 Risk $5,334.00

Valentina Shevchenko -5 points (-610) vs Liz Carmouche $610.00 for $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 2 (-425) $425.00 for $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche starts round 3 (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Liz Carmouche Over 3 (+102) $100.00 for $102.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+650) $30.00 for $195.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+1100) $25.00 for $275.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1800) $25.00 for $450.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+235) $100.00 for $235.00

Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1 (-172) $172.00 for $100.00
Vicente Luque/Mike Perry Over 1 (-175) $175.00 for $100.00

Luiz Garagorri vs Humberto Bandenay: No Bet

Volkan Oezdemir (-155) vs Ilir Latifi $310.00 for $200.00
Volkan Oezdemir wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+162) $75.00 for $121.50

Rodolfo Vieira wins by submission (-130) $130.00 for $100.00
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 1 (+175) $75.00 for $131.25
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 2 (+425) $40.00 for $170.00
Rodolfo Vieira wins in round 3 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 2 (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 3 (+1800) $50.00 for $900.00
Rodolfo Vieira/Oskar Piechota won't go 3 round distance (-400) $400.00 for $100.00

Enrique Barzola (-130) vs Bobby Moffet $260.00 for $200.00

Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00
Alexey Kunchenko (-130) vs Gilbert Burns $325.00 for $250.00
Alexey Kunchenko wins by TKO/KO (+355) $50.00 for $177.50
Alexey Kunchenko wins in round 3 (+1600) $15.00 for $240.00

Ciryl Gane/Raphael Pessoa Under 1 (-180) $180.00 for $100.00

Tecia Torres (-145) vs Marina Rodriguez $362.50 for $250.00
Tecia Torres wins by submission (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00
Tecia Torres wins by 3 round decision (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Raulian Paiva (+101) vs Rogerio Bontorin $100.00 for $101.00

Geraldo de Freitas vs Chris Gutierrez: No Bet

Rodrigo Vargas vs Alex Da Silva: No Bet

Polyana Viana (+123) vs Veronica Macedo $100.00 for $123.00
Polyana Viana wins inside distance (+235) $40.00 for $94.00

Fights to go distance over 4 (-513) $256.50 for $50.00
Fights to go distance over 5 (-245) $98.00 for $40.00
Fights to go distance over 6 (+147) $30.00 for $44.10
Fights to go distance over 7 (+380) $25.00 for $95.00
Fights to go distance over 8 (+1069) $15.00 for $160.35
Fights to go distance over 9 (+3325) $7.00 for $232.75
Fights to go distance over 10 (+16600) $3.00 for $498.00
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Old 08-10-2019, 05:12 PM   #48985
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Re: MMA Thread

well macedo immediately gets taken down so my prediction wasn't totally accurate but i'll take the win to start the card.

macedo, gutierrez, paiva, barzola, viera
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:02 PM   #48986
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Re: MMA Thread

Added Barzola -147 just due to the insane steam and good price vs market
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:24 PM   #48987
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Re: MMA Thread

So um I thought Barzola lost the first round but he was 1.36 on b365 inbetween rounds - close round though hope the TD stole it on bad judging cards

He looks good early in the second though
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:29 PM   #48988
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Re: MMA Thread

lol he just went from 1.22 to 1.50 live due to the flurry from Moffett late

I hope it's 19-19 Barzola won 4 minutes of the round and did get the takedown right at the end

I'm worried my guy could be down two rounds although for all I know he could be up two it's a hard one to score

Back at 1.36 after two rounds live i'd be all over Moffett at 3.xx if I was able to live bet but I think Barzola a small fav still no way he's 1.36 tho

I think I have it 19-19 after two but close rounds
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:31 PM   #48989
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Re: MMA Thread

I don't get refereeing sometimes he yells don't hold the fence and grabs his hand, Moffett continues to hold the fence and uses it to stuff a takedown, no penalty
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:34 PM   #48990
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Re: MMA Thread

Well I hope the judges like that Barzola took him down at the end of each round

No idea who won that I think it's way closer than the live odds I think Barzola edged it 29-28 but all 3 rounds close
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:37 PM   #48991
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Re: MMA Thread

Whew got the split that had split decision written all over it

Nice start to the card for me

That was the rare fight where I can't fault any of the 30-27 29-28 28-29 cards and pretty much any combination of rounds could go to either guy

Was pretty nervous since they read a Moffett scorecard first and the guy whose name gets read first in the split wins more often
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:44 PM   #48992
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Re: MMA Thread

lol Bisping calls DC/Stipe 2 the 'most anticipated HW title fight ever'. I'm gonna sell on that
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:46 PM   #48993
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Re: MMA Thread

ok c'mon rodolfo lets make this look easy!
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Old 08-10-2019, 09:05 PM   #48994
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Re: MMA Thread

Nice work Vieira pickers, I didn't have a bet on that one but nearly considered it

He didn't make it look super easy but obv he crushes any non elite grappler he gets on top of

Looking forward to Oezdemir/Latifi more than any other fight on the card let's go Volkan!
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Old 08-10-2019, 09:11 PM   #48995
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Re: MMA Thread

added half unit on latifi

i wasn't sure about veira's cardio, he's obv a big juicy boy. but piechota has confirmed awful cardio so i figured the guy trying to get on top has a better edge in that battle. veira's cardio looked fine tbh, bisping talking it up a little too much about how gassed he was.
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Old 08-10-2019, 09:24 PM   #48996
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Re: MMA Thread

So far so good on Oezdemir easily winning the standup clear 10-9 round. If his cardio and TDD hold up he wins. Hope they do.
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Old 08-10-2019, 09:29 PM   #48997
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Re: MMA Thread

Boom, 2/2 for the card, impressive by Volkan. He was def slowing down but paced himself well after rocking Latifi
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Old 08-10-2019, 09:32 PM   #48998
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Re: MMA Thread

okay he couldn't get easy takedowns. noted.
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Old 08-10-2019, 09:40 PM   #48999
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Re: MMA Thread

He sort of got one briefly but I thought Oezdemir's size and reach advantage would help and it did, plus being 6 years younger can't hurt, 30 is mid prime vs 36 is late prime to end of prime at LHW. Latifi's still gonna beat anyone who isn't top 10 but I think Volkan is still a clear top 10 guy

Let's go Garagorri make it a 3/3 card
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Old 08-10-2019, 09:50 PM   #49000
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Re: MMA Thread

Garagorri uses Derrick Lewis's patented move when mounted 'just stand up'

edit: lol he did it again just stand up is the new official counter to being mounted

and now Bandenay uses CM Punk's patented 'that is not a move' jumping hug

This is some entertaining super low level MMA

10-9 Garagorri
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