I don't think Max can lose unless 145 gets a Khabib level wrestler or Max fights someone as big as he is who hits harder (basically if Poirier could still make 155 or someone like Conor comes along again)

I thought he was unbeatable pre-Poirier at 145 other than maybe a striker like Conor, and I don't think he's unbeatable, I just don't think any of the guys currently at 145 have what it takes to beat him more than a small percentage of the time

Alrighty my MMA people!

Super stoked for this weekend.

1) I love betting womens MMA
2) This card is packed w/ women fighting
3) and the biggest reason.. MIRANDA GRANGER.

Local girl, monster! Finally gets her shot and she's super raw but has a Ortega like BJJ grip. Lanky girl 5-0 kickboxer + undefeated in MMA and only started training after HS.

I don't know much about Goldy.. but she looks tough. The line opened with Miranda at +106 and I jumped lol... it got to +170 but shot back to +140.

Anyone got info on Goldy? This was an all emotions bet for me but fk it

I think volk is a legit threat tbh and I was on max for last fight.

We need a ngannou vs hardy fight

I completely agree. He's durable, in your face, and great stamina. I hope it comes together quick. Zabit is also a good challenger. Different style and one that Max might be able to deal with but worthy of a TS. I have to be honest and mention the punch drunk symptoms that Max is showing. I know he talks a little differently then most... but he mentioned like 5 times that he needs to be medically cleared before thinking about his next opponent. I've never heard a fighter talk about this during a post fight conference when he won cleanly without taking much damage. I think he knows his health is somewhat in jeopardy and I'd hate for him to retire... but if it's even close I hope he walks away.

Hardy needs to gamble and pick out a top 7 fighter (he'll get a willing opponent) and if he wins he would likely be fighting for the number 1 spot next.

Him vs. Overeem makes sense.

Volk def has the best chance; he hits hard and is well rounded.

I realize it's easy for me to say this after the fact, but I thought Koch was the bet of the card going into this fight and had a pretty big bet on him. I also realize there's no way for me to support this claim, but FWIW I'm telling the truth here. When the line opened I legitimately couldn't understand why he was being priced as an underdog, the only thing I could think of is that people just saw Koch's record and didn't really do any further research on it, but I didn't really understand it because he seemed like the much more complete and experienced fighter coming into this fight, and this was also a must win for him to continue having his UFC career. Not sure how much the "must win" angle matters, but it probably doesn't hurt.

I have to confess I didn't really think too much about the size difference but to be honest I don't really see why you expected that to be such a decisive advantage (although obviously this is easy to say in hindsight). Guys move up from lightweight all the time, sure, some guys are probably a little too small (Cowboy and RDA come to mind, although they both beat some tough guys at WW) but other guys like Masvidal do just fine and I think unless you're either fighting a really good wrestler or a really talented guy who knows how to use his frame like Leon Edwards the size difference between lightweight and WW isn't as big as the gap between welterweight and middleweight, for example, even though they're both 15 pound jumps. I mean, yeah, it can make a big difference, but Eric Koch had 1.5 years to pack on lean body mass which is plenty of time for a professional athlete, you really don't need to add that much size if the cut down to 155 is killing you to be good to go at 170, and it's not like he was fighting Usman or Covington here.

I also really don't think Stewart is a UFC caliber fighter, he's got a lot of heart and can punch but I think a lot of these former military guys and vets (who I respect the hell out of, for what it's worth) get shots in the UFC because of their life story and the potential PR bump for the UFC when in reality their skills alone aren't enough to get them there. I also think that being a vet will affect the market, because it will result in more public money coming in on them and the oddsmakers will probably adjust the lines accordingly. Anyways, coming into this fight I thought that at best Stewart was a semi-talented guy who is very tough but also kind of raw from a skill set standpoint and definitely not anything special from an athleticism standpoint.

Contrast that with Koch who is a very experienced UFC fighter, training at a great camp in Team Roofus, and who suffered a tough loss in his last fight 1.5 years ago in which he fought very well against a very underrated and tough guy in Bobby Green, and I really liked the matchup for Koch and was very surprised when he opened as an underdog, I think it's very important to be well rounded in the UFC, one dimensional guys just don't do well unless they're really exceptional at that one thing, and Koch was a much more well rounded fighter than Stewart IMO.

Not trying to rub anything in your face here, just sharing my thinking on this one since I like reading your posts and think you post good stuff, even if I don't always agree with you on everything. Also, Stewart definitely had his chances, the fight was actually a little closer than I thought it was going to be and he clipped Koch very cleanly at the start of the second round and could've gotten a lucky KO, but I think overall the odds were definitely in Koch's favor on this one.

Also, two other random comments before I got to bed:

1.) Agree 100% on Rogan being biased against Cyborg, I think overall he's a great commentator but I couldn't figure out what the f*ck he was watching. I bet on Cyborg and was actually getting nervous listening to him talk until I realized he was just being a dumbass.

2.) Also agree that Volk is going to be a really tough fight for Holloway, I think he might actually be a tougher matchup than Zabit. Zabit's great but I just think Holloway would figure him out after a couple rounds, whereas Volk's feinting and power could give Holloway a lot of problems. That'll be a hell of a fight.

Why do you hate Lentz so much? I've never followed him super closely but he seems fine to me. Agree that Penn has turned into a loser, but in his defense that guy is probably suffering from some massive CTE.

Apparently after round 1 Cyborg was 1.33 due to the commentry narrative.
Which was pretty insane given she won that round easily. Wish there were more cards shown as a decent time for people in the UK. Very rarely get to live bet MMA.

That's going to be a really bad night for Hardy imo.

Agreed think that Volkanovski is perhaps the only legit contender unless Ortega improves. What about Zhabit?

Also, I've caught Rogan do that so many times already, it's not even funny. He sometimes only focuses on 1 fighter and literally disregards everything the other fighter does, then when his fighter finally gets a punch off, you'll hear him say, good right hand, completely disregarding the barrage of punishment that fighter just got!

DWTNCS S03E06 Risk $2,056.00

Aleksa Camur/Fabio Cherant Under 1½ (-155) $155.00 for $100.00
Aleksa Camur/Fabio Cherant won’t go 3 round distance (-530) $159.00 for $30.00

Steven Nguyen vs Aalon Cruz: No Bet

Tracy Cortez (+110) vs Mariya Agapova $200.00 for $220.00
Tracy Cortez (+105) vs Mariya Agapova $200.00 for $210.00
Tracy Cortez wins by 3 round decision (+120) $50.00 for $60.00
Tracy Cortez wins by 3 round decision (+100) $50.00 for $50.00
Mariya Agapova wins by 3 round decision (+255) $50.00 for $127.50
Mariya Agapova wins by 3 round decision (+235) $50.00 for $117.50

Daniel Rodriguez/Rico Farrington Over 1½ (+110) ~$104.50 for ~$114.95
Daniel Rodriguez wins by 3 round decision (+375) $50.00 for $187.50
Daniel Rodriguez wins by 3 round decision (+350) $50.00 for $175.00
Rico Farrington wins by 3 round decision (+375) $50.00 for $187.50
Rico Farrington wins by 3 round decision (+350) $50.00 for $175.00
Daniel Rodriguez/Rico Farrington goes 3 round distance (+155) $50.00 for $77.50

Rodrigo Nascimento (-105) vs Michal Martinek $210.00 for $200.00
Rodrigo Nascimento (-105) vs Michal Martinek $210.00 for $200.00
Rodrigo Nascimento/Michal Martinek won’t go 3 round distance (-535) $267.50 for $50.00

Parlay:
Rodrigo Nascimento (-135) vs Michal Martinek + Daniel Rodriguez (-210) vs Rico Farrington + Tracy Cortez (-105) vs Mariya Agapova + Steven Nguyen (-170) vs Aalon Cruz + Aleksa Camur (-390) vs Fabio Cherant $100.00 for $901.12

He's a full deplorable who brings politics into everything, like to troll in a not at all amusing way more of a 'look at me i'm a budget ben shapiro im smarter than you' way and is a full alt-right scumbag. Likes to give shoutouts to Brett Kavanaugh to 'pwn the libs' in post fight speeches level because that's the type of person he is. Can you imagine a liberal fighter giving shoutouts to Ruth Bader Ginsberg to 'pwn the conservatives' I mean wtf

Thinks he's god's gift to fighting when he's a mid level guy whose career has been full of boring fights

He is generally just a douchebag and not just because I disagree with him politically there are plenty of fighters with right wing views who are fine Lentz is just one of those 'my identity is Donald Trump and pepe the frog' type guys and he acts like he's in the conversation for GOAT in the UFC when he's a journeyman. He's like a 4chan basement dweller whose personality consists of ****posting 'to pwn the libs' with a dash of legit hatred of minorities. Complained about Dagestani muslims being allowed to train at his gym, was pretty racist towards Will Brooks, etc.

I just don't like him at all. I don't like Penn either but it would be amazing if a washed up BJ Penn embarrassed him and even though BJ is super done if there's any UFC level fighter he can beat Lentz is basically a grappler with a slick guillotine and pillow fists, obv I think Lentz wins but if BJ's gonna beat any UFC mid level guy it might be Lentz lol

I had no clue that Lentz was such a man's man. That's pretty kool. We know BJ Penn is a warrior. The machismo and (all natural) testosterone is going to be flowing in that Octagon. Can't wait!

On an unrelated note everyone seems to be going for flying knees after Masvidal's KO of Askren. One that landed in this past week's contender series is the most impressive flying knee that I can ever recall seeing. I don't have that high of hopes for the kid that landed it but if he continues with such an unorthadox approach using kicks then he's going to be a problem.

Anyone got thoughts on the this weekends card?

Only got £100 on Lawler at 3.0, pretty confident thats the value side.
Colby has been out for a while and never faced someone with the one shot power that Lawler has.

Lawler has shown decent ability to defend takedowns off the fence against prime Hendricks and did alright against a near prime Koshcheck.

Quite like A.Shevchenko now that her odds as drifted but she does seem to slow in the 3 round and doesn't seem to pack much power. Could see Pudilova walking through shots and making it a brawl taking the last 2 rounds.

If Lawler wins it should be by KO, Colby brings ridiculous volume and pressure but Lawler is going to melt his face if he connects. Good chance Colby LnPs him but obv if he cant get him down Lawler's going to break his face at some point. I think the Condit war ended both of their primes for Lawler and he's prone to making mistakes but I hope he has what it takes to knock Colby out, obviously Colby poses no threat striking to him

ONE Championship streaming live on youtube at the moment.
Mighty Mouse and Alvarez fighting.

Stuck £50 on Folyang at 3.25 to beat Eddie Alvarez.
Wanted a bit of a sweat on the card and Folayang is a decent striker, plus its in the Phillipines so he will probably get the decision if its close.

i remember what colby did to RDA in terms of crazy pressure, absolute control/ground domination makes me not want to fire robbie.

When Eddie went down I thought that was it. Fairplay to him hanging in there and getting the W


The price on Lawler is really high so I like the value in it but Colby is a beast. I slept on him a bit but that RDA performance was A+

I might play a Lawler r1 TKO prop of some sort if I can get +1000 or whatever which seems to be available if Lawler wins its going to be by knocking Colby the **** out early before he's taken any significant wear and tear. I doubt Colby survives the shots Lawler put on Askren early.

If Colby can survive two rounds I think he wins by decision or sub a ton, but I guess round 5 Lawler is also a beast lol

Got some Granger +114 partially for Knittle's read that she's good if a bit green and partially because she seems to be steaming in and the market likes her

Added A.Shevchenko
£200 at 1.8

Odds moved enough now to the point where I think she is value. I like Pudilova but this is a good style match up for Shev. She should have the better footwork and speed to outpoint Pudilova. Pudilova doesn't really force the grappling and given her size it will probably most be clinch work when Shev excels.

My card so far

Big

Espinosa -112
Granger +114

Medium/small

Granger + Espinosa parlay +286

Lawler wins by r1 TKO +900 (coulda got +1000 if I had the right books but I didn't so whatever I guess)
Lawler wins by TKO +300

Nzechukwu TKO or DEC +130 and straight up +100 mixture

I sort of want the over on Miller/Guida and under on Gall/Touahri but not enough to pull the trigger, sort of want to fade Gall but he looked to have a decent size advantage at weigh in and I like him so prob wont, and

yeah fair enough always good to hear what other people saw. i'm gonna be honest in the second round when he landed that big punch along the fence i thought it was over. koch looked tired, was getting walked down to the fence and then stewart refused to stop grappling. must have missed 5 takedowns and completely used all of his gas. if i known he was going to fight like that i'd never have bet him in a million years.