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Old 07-25-2019, 04:21 PM   #48876
Malachii
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Re: MMA Thread

And Maia vs Askren is an interesting matchup. The UFC isn't doing Askren any favors with the matchups they're giving him, that's for sure. I haven't seen tape of any of Askren's striking but I would assume it's not very good.
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Old 07-25-2019, 05:45 PM   #48877
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Re: MMA Thread

Askren's takedown style is so sloppy. He'll do whatever it takes to get it to the ground. Against high caliber UFC guys that can mean night night (was nearly KO'ed in both of his UFC fights). He needs to tighten that up and be more conservative with his takedowns because Maia is way too dangerous to just leave himself exposed like that.
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Old 07-25-2019, 06:10 PM   #48878
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Re: MMA Thread

PFL 5 Risk $2,475.00

Chris Wade (+210) vs Akhmed Aliev $200.00 for $420.00
Chris Wade (+207) vs Akhmed Aliev $100.00 for $207.00
Chris Wade (+202) vs Akhmed Aliev $100.00 for $202.00

Alex Gilpin (-165) vs Freddie Assuncao $330.00 for $200.00

Steven Siler (+190) vs Jeremy Kennedy $100.00 for $190.00

Natan Schulte (-365) vs Jesse Ronson $365.00 for $100.00

Andre Harrison (+100) vs Movlid Khaybulaev $200.00 for $200.00
Andre Harrison (-120) vs Movlid Khaybulaev $240.00 for $200.00

Peter Petties (+160) vs Alexandre Almeida $100.00 for $160.00

Loik Radzhabov (-145) vs Ylies Dijiroun $290.00 for $200.00

Parlay:
Natan Schulte (-375) vs Jesse Ronson + Rashid Magomedov (-650) vs Nate Andrews $450.00 for $207.69
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Old 07-27-2019, 07:56 AM   #48879
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Re: MMA Thread

Really hard to like anything next card. I think Max wins but the value might be on Frankie around the 4 mark even at 37 years old.

Tough one as Edgar used to be my fav fighter but Max is one of my favourites too and I can't stand Ali Abdelaziz so not sure I can cheer for Frankie any more

I want Tsaryukan but not super keen to fade a ton of steam on OAM but I feel the matchup might favour Tsaryukan unless OAM can outstrike him because i'm not sure OAM can outgrapple him and thats where he excels, Tsaryukan held his own with Islam Makhachev grappling and surely he's a fav over OAM so mma math etc

Seungwoo Choi came in from a dog to evens is anyone familiar with him? Haven't seen any tape on him at all

No bets for me yet but will probably fire some tomorrow
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Old 07-27-2019, 12:34 PM   #48880
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Re: MMA Thread

I really look forward to Askren vs. Maia. All the top guys have beat Maia by keeping the distance, no TD's either way and point fight... boring boring and Maia despite trying couldn't take them down or jump guard. With Askren it's a different style where both guys should want it on the ground. Askren likely on top to start but a sweep/scramble could put Maia on top... This matchup lets both fighters fight to their strengths which is something almost none of Maia's opponents are willing to let happen. Great matchup.

Masvidal deserves the TS more then Leon... because you should get somewhere in this business based on in ring performance (and not talk or cherry picking opponents) and his past 2 KO's are more deserving then all of Edwards wins... even if Edwards is a bigger threat to the champ.
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Old 07-27-2019, 12:40 PM   #48881
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Re: MMA Thread

MAX via TKO is the play for sure tonight. I'd give it a 50/50 on whether it's in the ring or on the stool. In between rounds 2 to 3 or 3 to 4 I expect Frankie's eyes to be swollen so bad/cut and the doctors stop the fight.

Frankie has to get to the inside... and to be honest he doesn't have it in him anymore. Look at his last fight with Aldo. A 25 minute snoozefest. Frankie knew what he had to do... which is get on the inside as it was his only chance to win but was content with keeping the distance and taking less damage and losing a UD.

Max is even better then Aldo at the distance game and better accuracy to boot. I like Frankie and respect him as a long serving professional but this isn't going to be his last hurrah. I imagine he will retire post fight.
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Old 07-27-2019, 01:52 PM   #48882
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Re: MMA Thread

he was working rly hard to get inside but aldo kept pivoting off and hitting him with a counter. i favor max to win but i don't think it's rly the same type of matchup, seeing as aldo is one of the hardest guys ever to takedown in mma. will bet max ~-300, not touching it here though
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Old 07-27-2019, 01:56 PM   #48883
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post

Seungwoo Choi came in from a dog to evens is anyone familiar with him? Haven't seen any tape on him at all
he's ****ing huge. pretty tough to get a read on his skills though coming from korea and in his first ufc fight he just got ragdolled by a super legit russian prospect. also tough to get a read on tucker since he hasn't fought in forever after that brutal beating rick glenn put on him. gun to my head i'd bet the korean guy based on size and reach and how bad tucker's last fight was coupled with his inactivity. on the other hand, i wouldn't be too surprised if tucker just danced around on the outside and potshotted him to a decision win. i will say tucker kind of struggles when his opponents just commits to walking him down and that's pretty much all koreans know how to do.
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Old 07-27-2019, 02:21 PM   #48884
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Re: MMA Thread

Ended up with

£100 on Koch at 2.1
£50 on Edgar by decison at 7.5
£50 on Choi at 2.0
£200 on Jotko at 1.61
£300 on Cyborg at 1.22

After watching quite a lot of tape I forgot how good and well rounded Jotko is. Really impressed me in his last fight and I think he is just a much higher level fighter then Barriault. He could get caught but I think he is sub 1.5 here.

Other big bet is Cyborg. Watched quite a lot of Spencer and she seems like a decent athlete. She is scrappy but I don't think she has much for Cyborg, her striking is really wild but not very effective. Her grappling is decent but I think she exposed Megan Anderson's weakness rather then being an elite level grappler herself.

If you watch her in Invicta she was outgrappled by regional level fighters for long periods of her fights. I think Cyborg is way too much at this stage of her career. If this was pre Nunes fight Cyborg is 1.10 and I think that would about right.

Could her chin be effected by the Nunes fight?
Probably but I don't see Spencer having the power to really hurt Cyborg.

Don't like betting these low odds in MMA but I think this is actually a decent spot value wise.
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Old 07-27-2019, 02:39 PM   #48885
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Re: MMA Thread

why do you like koch? i'm waffling on betting stewart. koch is going to be undersized, never the most durable guy. stewarts glaring weakness is his grappling but koch is a decent grappler but not overpowering and he'll be really undersized. there's a chance he moves up and does laps around the bigger welterweight like in the warlley alves/james krause fight but koch seems to struggle when people just come after him and stewart isn't a bad scrapper if he can keep it standing. goes from fighting the biggest welterweight on the roster to possibly fighting the smallest welterweight on the roster. should do a lot to fix his grapplng issues.
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Old 07-27-2019, 06:42 PM   #48886
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Re: MMA Thread

.5 unit stewart
1 unit frota
.3 unit figureido
1 unit tsaryuan
1 unit cyborg


thats my card, gl

will bet araujo if she gets to -150.
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Old 07-27-2019, 07:25 PM   #48887
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Re: MMA Thread

UFC 240 Risk $7,144.88

Frankie Edgar +5½ points (+145) $100.00 for $145.00
Not Max Holloway inside distance (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Frankie Edgar/Max Holloway Over 3½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00
Frankie Edgar/Max Holloway Over 3½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Frankie Edgar/Max Holloway fight goes distance (+150) $100.00 for $150.00
Max Holloway wins by decision or technical decision (+260) $100.00 for $260.00
Frankie Edgar/Max Holloway Draw (+8000) $25.00 for $2,000.00

Chris Cyborg (-528) vs Felicia Spencer $1,056.00 for $200.00
Chris Cyborg -3½ points (-400) vs Felicia Spencer $400.00 for $100.00
Chris Cyborg wins inside distance ( -210) $420.00 for $200.00
Chris Cyborg wins inside distance (-260) $260.00 for $100.00
Chris Cyborg/Felicia Spencer Under 1½ (-180) $360.00 $200.00
Chris Cyborg/Felicia Spencer Under 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00
Chris Cyborg/Felicia Spencer Under 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00

Geoff Neal/Niko Price Under 1½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Arman Tsarukyan: No Bet

Krzysztof Jotko (-160) vs Marc-Andre Barriault $320.00 for $200.00
Krzysztof Jotko (-165) vs Marc-Andre Barriault $330.00 for $200.00
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+393) $85.00 for $334.05
Marc-Andre Barriault wins in round 2 (+1100) $10.00 for $110.00
Marc-Andre Barriault wins in round 2 (+1000) $10.00 for $200.00
Marc-Andre Barriault wins in round 3 (+2000) $20.00 for $400.00
Krzysztof Jotko wins by decision (+150) $100.00 for $150.00

Alexis Davis (-170) vs Viviane Araujo $100.00 for $170.00
Alexis Davis (-175) vs Viviane Araujo $100.00 for $175.00
Alexis Davis +3½ points (-130) $130.00 for $100.00
Alexis Davis wins in round 3 (+2500) $10.00 for $250.00

Hakeem Dawodu (-357) vs Yoshinori Horie $357.14 for $100.00
Hakeem Dawodu wins in round 2 (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Hakeem Dawodu wins in round 3 (+1100) $20.00 for $220.00
Hakeem Dawodu/Yoshinori Horie Under 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Yoshinori Horie wins by TKO/KO (+598) $50.00 for $299.00
Yoshinori Horie wins in round 1 (+1000) $15.00 for $150.00
Hakeem Dawodu/Yoshinori Horie completes one full round (-230) $230.00 for $100.00

Seung Woo Choi (-125) vs Gavin Tucker $125.00 for $100.00
Seung Woo Choi (-115) vs Gavin Tucker $115.00 for $100.00
Seung Woo Choi wins by TKO/KO (+280) $75.00 for $210.00

Alexandre Pantoja (-120) vs Deivison Figueiredo $230.00 for $200.00
Alexandre Pantoja/Deiveson Figueiredo Over 2½ (-200) $400.00 for $200.00

Gillian Robertson (-130) vs Sarah Frota $259.74 for $200.00

Kyle Stewart (-115) vs Erik Koch $230.00 for $200.00
Kyle Stewart wins in round 3 (+1600) $10.00 for $160.00
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Old 07-27-2019, 07:26 PM   #48888
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Re: MMA Thread

man stewart has no reason to lose this fight. single digit iq. worst grappler of all time refuses to stop grappling. 2nd round was hilariously bad from him.
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Old 07-27-2019, 10:21 PM   #48889
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Re: MMA Thread

can someone pls pm me a stream^
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Old 07-27-2019, 10:53 PM   #48890
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Re: MMA Thread

Max Holloway looks off upon arrival at UFC 240
https://www.bjpenn.com/mma-news/ufc/...al-at-ufc-240/
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Old 07-27-2019, 11:05 PM   #48891
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Re: MMA Thread

PM'd

I wanted Tsaryukan but didnt end up firing it due to the all the OAM money coming in etc was worried he might not be fully healthy etc

No bets for me but watching the card to enjoy it as a fan
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Old 07-27-2019, 11:11 PM   #48892
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Re: MMA Thread

Looks like I should have got on Tsaryukan but I guess he did get badly rocked in the second should win a 29-28 here

Max doesn't look injured to me just might have had a rough cut. Hope hes ok.
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Old 07-27-2019, 11:22 PM   #48893
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Re: MMA Thread

added araujo .5 bet at -170ish

added 1 unit max
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Old 07-27-2019, 11:42 PM   #48894
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Re: MMA Thread

this steam on cyborg is terrifying,
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Old 07-28-2019, 12:12 AM   #48895
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Re: MMA Thread

wow someone just dusted off a few 100k on spencer. scared me half to death. my average price was -530

one of the worst calls of all time from joe tbh. that fight wasnt remotely close.
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Old 07-28-2019, 01:25 AM   #48896
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Re: MMA Thread

Seeing the fight I fully get the Spencer steam; Cyborg just isn't as good without the steroids and her cardio will always be an issue and she's hittable against women close to her own size

She did win convincingly but she looked very vulnerable and i'd probably take Spencer at +400 or whatever if they fought again

Hopefully we get Holloway/Volkanovski and Whittaker/Adesanya and everyone makes it to the fight healthy for the Australia card they'll sell out Marvel Stadium with 60k fans (it's a ridiculously awesome venue and even has a roof in event of weather so can host fights)

Max looked like his usual self, just Edgar can hang with his pace and won't break. Edgar still has it too and will beat non top 5 guys and is competitive against everyone else in the division Max is just too good

It's crazy they put the UFC card in Aus on the same day as the NRL Grand Final (probably the 2nd biggest sporting event in Australia after the AFL grand final crowd wise and theres a huge overlap between NRL and UFC fans) but I guess it's in a different city and it's in the evening so people can watch both; just people can't attend both live very easily given they'd need to immediately get on a flight after the UFC card

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_243

Will be interesting to see how they fill out the card, the prelims are set with all of the Aussie prospects I assume they'll find a fight for a few other guys like Jake Matthews; Jim Crute has a fight booked already and I know Hooker is angling to fight Iaquinta on the card

I suppose if they add one more main card worthy fight plus the FW title it'll sell out the stadium; Whittaker vs Adesanya, Holloway vs Volkanovski, Hooker vs Iaquinta or similar level guy and I guess two more if they want it to be a big card it seems like all of the other announced fights are for the prelims currently according to the espn article I read. They should probably find a way to get some big name but not quite in the title picture guys on the card like Overeem, Shogun etc. if they want it to be a huge card internationally and not just in Australia.
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Old 07-28-2019, 08:49 AM   #48897
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Re: MMA Thread

Decent night for me overall.

I didn't think Cyborg looked vunerable, Rogans bias might have swayed you.
Spencer never got close to a takedown, she ate shots well and landed a few elbows.
Cyborg though never looked in danger of losing that fight to me.

Frankie fought a decent fight, thought he might have more success with his grappling but fair play to Max he looked great.
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Old 07-28-2019, 09:49 AM   #48898
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Re: MMA Thread

I think if she didn’t have all that blood nobody would have thought it’s close. There’s almost no real way spencer could have won that fight and cyborgs cardio held up better than Spencer’s imo.

Like, spencer was never rly going to have any equity to win rounds with how bad she was getting out volumed, só then we have to think cyborg is going to get finished by her?
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Old 07-28-2019, 11:51 AM   #48899
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Re: MMA Thread

I watched it without commentary but was multitasking betting on Aussie sport at the same time so I was probably swayed by the blood a bit - I didn't think Spencer won any rounds but I did see her land some nice shots.

Penn vs Lentz announced for some reason, I hate both fighters so much - i've always thought Penn was arrogant and lazy and overrated and that was before he also had domestic abuse charges and is trying to fight bouncers at strip clubs - on the other hand we have Lentz who is just such a detestable douchebag that I have to cheer for Penn anyway even though he has no chance and is also unlikeable

It's absurd that BJ Penn is still getting UFC fights at this point but I guess until he's getting knocked out cold in fights it's fine and it's not like Lentz has power
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Old 07-28-2019, 02:28 PM   #48900
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Re: MMA Thread

Frankie did much better then I expected and had some nice combos while faking the TD. His calf kick was there all night and he should have used it much more in the early rounds.

Max looked a little off tbh and I actually think he can lose at 145 now.
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