No surprise that Hernandez got the hometown decision. In that regard I suppose Brazil got a little of its own medicine. The decision annoyed me too, and it appeared that even Hernandez thought he lost.

Hernandez looks super gun shy after the Cowboy fight. Cowboy beat the tar out of him and now Hernandez has morphed into a karate point fighter. He landed half as many strikes in this 3 round fight as he did in the Cowboy fight in which he was finished in round 2.

I think it's more that Trinaldo was a tough matchup for him stylistically, he's a short squat guy with good strength and power and good BJJ, which negates a lot of what Hernandez wants to do with his wrestling. I agree he looked a bit gun shy but I personally am not going to read too much into that going forward.

That's the worst RDA I've seen in years since he went on his huge run at 155.

He has to face reality that he can't hang with the bigger guys at 170. I know he says cutting weight to 155 is a big problem... but outside of a 165 belt he has no choice. I'm a huge fan of his but enough is enough.

At 155 he can hang with anyone outside Fergusson... and Khahib... in a 3 rd fight. I think Khahibs one knock against him is I think he's the type that will fade if pushed hard in the early rounds. Outside of that RDA on paper is a great match up vs. anyone.

His sole loses at 170 have come to huge wrestlers...and Leon isn't even a notable wrestler but he's big. It's time for him to quit as he has no chance at winning the belt at 170 as he'd have to beat 2 of the guys he's lost to back to back.

He'll never win a title at 170, agree with you there, but he's still a damn good fighter with a family to feed and it's not like he's losing by vicious KO's, no reason for him to hang it up IMO. There's lots of fighters who will never be champions who still have really good careers in the UFC and make good $. That having been said, RDA is definitely a little small for the division, would love to see a 165 pound division have the welterweight limit moved up to 175, but I don't think that's gonna happen anytime soon.

RDA can't hang with the best WW fighters but I hope he continues fighting.

I actually have 3 guys I'd like to see retire from that card. Oleinik because 71 fights is enough fights especially in the HW division.

James Vick because he has a terrible chin and some of the worst striking defense ever. Fighting just doesn't seem to be for him. Every time he gets hit he stiffens up like a board and leaves himself wide open for a 2nd and 3rd shot. The shot that knocked him out was on the button but wasn't that powerful but it was just a matter of time before he got knocked out regardless.

The 3rd guy I'd like to see retire is Ben Rothwell. A few years ago I really thought he would make a run to challenge for a title. I'm not sure if he's just been vacationing for the last 3 years but he's looked terrible in both of his fights back. He's 37 years old with 48 fights and with as slow as he moves it's probably best he's not allowed to be a human punching bag for these heavy hitters in the HW division.

I don't think any of the three of them need to retire so much as they need to matched up with appropriate level opponents - Oleinik is still an insane grappler but can't beat guys who are young/powerful/strong/athletic with TDD

Vick is huge for his weight division and can do everything decently he's just chinny - he'll lose to top 15 guys but still beat most other guys in the UFC

Rothwell looked pretty bad in there vs Arlovski, but Arlovski has some okay speed for his size and has always had good hands. I mean, do you really think Ben Rothwell doesn't beat low level HWs though if he wants to keep fighting? Just time to stop matching him up with top 15 guys unless he can win a few in a row. People have been saying Arlovski should retire for ages too but he still loves it obviously and he's faced legit guys the whole way, he'd be absolutely ruining low level HWs still if he was fighting cans. I mean, his worst loss is Tybura UFC record wise, and Tybura is 4-4 in the UFC

Rothwell's worst loss is what, Arlovski himself or Ivanov? And he won the Ivanov fight on almost every media card and I scored that fight for Rothwell too. Yeah, he's never gonna beat a top 5 HW, but he's certainly still mid level at least.

'is never going to be the champ' doesn't always mean 'needs to retire' imo

Guys like Chuck Liddell 'need to retire' when they get knocked out cold every fight worse than the previous one. BJ Penn needs to retire unless he's going to fight non-UFC level guys on the regional circuit. Guys who are still mid level by UFC standards who aren't going to be elite anymore are fine to keep fighting at their .50 record against mid level guys as long as they're not getting finished in dangerous fashion over and over. Vick's only been finished twice in his three losses, all three against high-ish skill level guys. Put him in there with Thibaul Gouti or someone and you'll quickly see he still belongs in the UFC.

RDA will be fine he's only lost to elite guys he just isn't going to be the champ again and thats okay, he's still a solid top 10ish test for most fighters and RDA vs whoever is a perfectly fine main card fight he's just not necessarily a headliner anymore after this most recent loss. I mean, he did beat Kevin Lee 1 fight ago and Robbie Lawler a few fights before that it's not like he's a can, he's just not a future champ and has to settle into the gatekeeper role now. Cerrone's been a gatekeeper to the elite for years and has had a great career being top 10 but failing against potential champs the whole way while beating everyone else for the most part

0-1 card for me with the Hardy fade failing yet again. Please give him a big, technical striker next.

I know Francis Ngannou is fighting for the title next probably against he DC/Stipe winner but my god would I love to see him call out Greg Hardy and send him to the shadow realm. Idk who Hardy gets next but his loss is coming soon and it's going to be spectacular.

Francis Ngannou vs Greg Hardy would probably look like Francis Ngannou vs Derrick Lewis...BORING. However, if Francis Ngannou actually engaged him then he's one of the few top guys that Greg Hardy would have a good shot of beating this early in his career.

Completely disagree about James Vick. I'm not sure why you want to wait until he's in a life altering Chuck Liddell state before putting him out to pasture. When he gets punched in the head he tenses up into this weird mannequin-like state where he is standing straight up with his chin out ready to absorb multiple punches before making his next move (reminiscent of James Thompson). It's not a good look for a guy with a weak chin. I don't believe there is a known cure for that sort of awkwardness in the ring. Anytime you can predict a guy who hasn't taken a lot of damage in a fight is about to get knocked out there is a major problem.

If you match James Vick up against someone like Thibaul Gouti I believe what you'll see is that there is a high probability that Vick will get KTFO by a guy that is 1-5 in the UFC that doesn't even belong in the UFC. You're keep looking into the past with these guys and I'm looking into the future. Vick has a lot of skills but there is no real future for him in the UFC.

Rothwell could continue to beat low level guys for sure but is it really worth the damage he'll take and do we as fans even want to see it? I'm also wondering if his heart is really in it. If Oleneik wants to continue to fight at his advanced age he should go fight cans in Russia that he can submit easily. Even so, why wait until it's too late? Dude has a bazillion fights. Hang it up with some dignity.

BTW, I didn't even mention Vick fighting in the wrong weight division and who knows what kind of toll that is having on his body. James Vick has to be the heavy favorites for UFC fighter most likely to suffer a Corey Hill type broken leg in the Octagon (RIP Corey).

I bet on Vick but he doesn't doesn't seem to have learnt that you can't back up with your straight up.

Don't think he should retire but has been exposed against top level competition.

This next card doesn't look great for betting.

I have seen Edgar to win by decision at 9.0 which I am probably going to take. Don't see Edgar stopping Holloway but if he can implement some sort of grappling game he could snatch a decision.

Quite a lot of names I don't remember seeing fight so will try and watch some tape and find some value.

Was impressed with Viviane Araujo she has that Nunes like explosion which is super rare in female fighters but at 1.4 seems like the odds makers are not sleeping on her.
Davis is tough and decent on the ground, if she weathers the first round then she could tire Araujo.

Big fan of Geoff Neal but at 1.31 against a puncher like Price don't see much if any value.

Normally like to bet on underdogs but on this card I don't see many dogs that offer value.

Agree Vick should move up in weight. Also, this might sound weird talking about a professional cage fighter, but I don't know how mentally tough he is (relative to the guys he's competing against, at least, not comparing him to the general population.) Obviously stepping in the Octagon takes incredible balls, but I remember thinking when he fought Paul Felder that Paul Felder was an animal and just seemed to be fighting with a ferocity and an intensity that Vick just didn't seem to be capable of matching, and he always looks like he has poor / unconfident body language. He just doesn't seem like a guy who has the mindset of a winner. Obviously that's an anecdotal observation, but you do hear fighters talk all the time about how certain guys are monsters in the gym but just can't put it together on fight day, maybe Vick is one of those guys.

lol Jon Jones again what a clown. It's just going to keep happening

We could start a pool - next Jon Jones drug test failure

Pot
Cocaine
non-pulsing Turinabol since apparently pulsing levels are legal for him forever
Super Overeem Horse meat

Next Jon Jones arrest

Hit and run
DUI
Assault
Domestic violence
Drug possession
Other?

I think Jon Jones is a terrible human being but if you can't slap vagina at a strip club why even go?

DWTNCS S03E05 Risk $1,983.08

Jordan Williams/Ramazan Kuramagomedov Over 1½ (-167) $98.08 for $58.73
Jordan Williams/Ramazan Kuramagomedov Over 1½ (-180) $90.00 for $50.00

Sean Woodson vs Terrance McKinney: No Bet

Christian Lohsen vs JJ Okanovich: No Bet

Jamahal Hill (-225) vs Alexander Poppeck $562.50 for $250.00
Jamahal Hill (-250) vs Alexander Poppeck $500.00 for $200.00
Jamahal Hill/Alexander Poppeck Over 1½ (-140) $70.00 for $50.00

Kamuela Kirk (-265) vs Billy Quarantillo $662.50 for $250.00

I made a snap today whilst listening to a self improvement course by mr here I am in my garage with my lambo, tai lopez, it was one of the early ones, maybe even lesson one of 67 steps.

In it he details how Arnold Schwarzenegger said he very quickly learnt that the key to life is that most every thing can be broken down into reps and sets, that constant practise over and over and over again gives you a stable structure system to work with.

If you watch Vick, indeed he looks absolutely uncomfortable, absolutely unsure, space distance control? FLOW, he has no flow, no expectation of what to do next in a pattern or any nice pattern of movement, even if the movement is in his fav, he is fighting himself, he is "thinking", sets and reps mean you dont think, you do instantly.


It is a dam sight easier to say about what you could or should be doing from the outside of the cage looking in but definitely looking in at Vick he is not as comfortable in the cage as other fighters, rapid panic type movements.

When is the last time you saw him leading a fighter onto some thing?

He has a type of body that if he had a strong fight IQ and could use it to gain real leverage in explosive well timed blows he would be great to watch.

He needs to gain a flow, he needs to gain confidence in his craft, he needs a huge amount of time learning about his body, if you could count the quality of body control of mcgregor vs vick... there would be no comparison, maybe doing calisthenics, really achor back into core work, let it rip with actual enjoyment of pure martial arts,have fun with it first, develop tremendous kicks, use of distance, ship out to thai land and smash thai kick boxing, get really tough son of a b, for realz.


His timing is off and he is responsive vs being the dominate fighter, sure a guy lifts his chin up he will smack it but UFC fighters are going to be all kinds of sneaky about what they are doing.

Also i guess as the fight goes on he can be timed, predicted, easier to hit once the other guy sees him for a while?

To even get in the cage of UFC you must be doing a lot right, more than you can even imagine but to get deep in there needs special,

Its like he doesnt know what he is seeing in there, lack of sparing?, doesn't know what is going to happen next,

Fighters can change, they can develop and become levels above their previous.

(Edit: have to image UFC really like that when fighter unlock a part of themselves and progress, gain a much better performance of MMA, its liked alot).

Added:

Jordan Williams/Ramazan Kuramagomedov Over 1½ (-170) $85.00 for $50.00
Jordan Williams/Ramazan Kuramagomedov Over 1½ (-170) $85.00 for $50.00

Yeah it's tough to say. At a minimum I would say he needs to seriously examine if he wants to still be a fighter, and if he does then he should move up in weight, because what he's doing now clearly isn't working.

But from a practical standpoint (this is a betting thread, after all) it would take either really good odds or a very favorable matchup stylistically for me to bet on Vick going forward.

They're targetting Askren vs Maia apparently should be great fun since we have one of the best offensive wrestlers in MMA vs the best BJJ/submission grappler in MMA

Also will be interesting to see if they make Usman vs Masvidal or Covington, and if it's the latter whether Masvidal takes the Edwards grudge match or not

Right here is the problem. Edwards picked a fight with RDA backstage a few months back for the purpose of setting up a matchup with the easiest top 5 WW that he could find. while he was ranked #9. Now he's calling out Masvidal because he knows he needs 1 more top 5 win to get a Title Shot. The guy is looking for arguments with guys he matches up well with. Smart move for him... but I'm not a fan of the tactic.

It's a ***** move by Edwards but it was great entertainment when Masvidal served him up with a 3 piece and a soda.

Really though, Edwards was deserving of a top 5 guy long ago. Dude has now won 8 fights in a row and against a lot of tough guys. There have been a lot of title challengers with less impressive runs. Leon Edwards was ranked #12 before fighting RDA. He's now ranked #4. I'm in agreement with Leon that he was ranked far too low before.

On paper you would think Maia would be a bad matchup for Askren simply because Askren will probably try to fight Maia on the ground, where nobody wants to fight Maia. That's assuming Maia has better striking (I think that's a safe assumption without analyzing it).

It would seem the Covington, Woodley and Usman fights would be irrelevant to how Askren can beat Maia since there were no takedowns in those fights...unless Askren were to try grinding him against the fence.

Maia has not been taken down at all in his last 8 fights. He has not been taken down more than once in his last 17 fights. However, 7+ years ago Weidman took him down 4 times and Mark Munoz took him down 3 times, both for unanimous decision victories. Perhaps those fights hold the key to what Askren needs to do to win. Also, I'd be curious to look back at Shields vs Maia. Shields only had 1 takedown in that fight but he's not exactly known as a very good striker and was able to earn a split decision win over Maia.

The reason Maia vs Askren is a good fight is because Askren should be able to take down Maia, and Maia as the best bottom game/sweeps in the division - Maia probably has a striking edge so Askren has to take him down, Maia is unlikely to stop the takedown, but has a very legit chance to sub him from bottom/find his way to top position or Askren's back in a scramble and find a sub. It's a fight I legitimately have no idea how to pick, other than Maia probably isn't winning a decision unless it turns into a sloppy kickboxing match which isn't super likely as Askren can probably take Maia down if he's losing the standup which is also likely

And yeah, Edwards is trying to leapfrog the rankings by picking an 'easier' matchup from a higher ranked contender, but if Masvidal isn't fighting for the title it makes sense because Masvidal will become a bigger draw if he wins, think about it, nobody was ever talking about Masvidal prior to the Till win and Edwards backstage scrap followed by the Askren KO and now he's one of the most talked about fighters. If he can't beat Leon Edwards he's not going to win the title anyway and he'd have probably had to face him in his first title defense anyway but obv he should take the title shot if it's his, but if not Edwards is the fight to make.

it's a weird spot cause none of the top 3 guys are fighting

imo Masvidal doesn't deserve a title shot yet and I don't think a win over Edwards brings him any closer, seems like an unnecessary risk

To be perfectly honest Edwards is far more deserving of a title shot than Masvidal. I'm not really sure how Masvidal got in the position he is in to fight such highly ranked guys. I suppose it's because he beat Cerrone (something Leon Edwards also did). Currently Masvidal is on a 2 fight win streak, with upset wins over Till and Askren. Prior to that he lost 2 in a row, and prior to that he had 3 wins in a row against Ceronne, Ellenberger (who has lost 9 of his last 11), and Pearson (who has lost 6 of his last 7).

BTW, I think the case could be made that Edwards is even more deserving than Covington.

I assume it's because Askren and Till are considered bigger wins than RDA and Nelson which is probably the two highest ranked wins Edwards has on his streak (they both have Cerrone so that cancels out)

RDA is the #5 ranked WW. Till is the #6 ranked WW. Askren is the #10 ranked WW (pretty fortunate to have even 1 UFC win). Masvidal lost to #7 and #12.

I think a lot of it's just luck of when they beat guys (or lost to them) (ie where guys are ranked at that moment). Edwards hasn't faced many ranked guys but he's had tough opponents in each of his last 7 fights and he's won them all.

I feel like Frankie Edgar is a sneaky dangerous matchup for Max Holloway. Obviously he's 37 years old and Holloway has outstanding take down defense, but Edgar's a super dangerous wrestler and if he can consistently take him down then he has a clear path to victory. I don't necessarily think he's gonna win but I'm not sure he should be a +300 dog either.

Very excited to watch this upcoming card, lots of good fights.