Van Buren cashes.
She looks like a different level athlete to a lot of female fighters.
Think she's one to watch for the future hopefully we keep getting decent odds.

Good call on that one, nice bet. I got insanely lucky on Karl Roberson, I thought he lost but the judges saw it the other way. I was definitely on the wrong side of that one though, that was not a -220 performance.

Well, that was the easiest money I've ever made. Stoppage was probably early but I'll take it. GDR is legit!

I'm not sure how anyone gives that fight to Roberson.

I didn't like Herb's stoppage at all. He should have stepped in before de Randamie threw the punch because pretty girls shouldn't get punched in the face like that.

Simon stoppage was too early , imo he was likely to recover and recover quick ! unlike ladd , she was about to take a massive 10-seconds beatdown sitting on her butt

Congrats, cashed that one as well.
Decent event overall surprised Faber got it done, Cejudo will f*** him up pretty easily if they decide for some reason to make that fight.

Ended up sleeping in and skipping this card, wasn't much I was interested in either betting wise or as a fan. Will catch the finishes later I guess, any must watch fights in full? Interesting that Faber won quickly as a dog being old and in a lower weight class. I wonder if GDR is next in line to lose to Nunes now?

Elkins v Hall was fun.
Hard not to give GDR the title shot. As for Aspen, I wonder if she will move up to 145 as the weight cut to 135 is horrendous.

I don't either to be honest, but I've gotten screwed over enough times on bad decisions that I guess the MMA gods owed me one ;-).

Moving forward I have mixed feelings on Roberson, on the one hand he showed a lot of heart in getting out of some bad positions on the ground and his BJJ game is clearly improving, but on the other hand the dude was so f*cking dumb to get himself in those positions in the first place. Obviously it's easy for an arm chair quarterback like me to criticize a dude who's actually in there fighting in a professional cage fight, but he was smoking him in Round 2 and then for some reason initiated a clinch after he already had him stunned and then got taken down nearly got submitted, then did the same thing in Rd3. The whole thing was just a mind blowing display of poor fight IQ.

He took like 6 shots without seemingly intelligently defending himself. Looked like a good stoppage to me.

You missed some great fights, especially the Faber fight. The electricity in my living room during that fight was amazing!

Yeah, Roberson doesn't have much upside and his decision making is terrible. The Brazilian kid has a lot of potential.

During the Ferreira fight I kept thinking this guy must have a fake black belt. I know he has a couple nice finishes but dude didn't look like a black belt in that fight much less a 3rd degree black belt. Then I realized he trained with/under Vitor Belfort, a guy whose black belt regularly disappeared in fights. Gotta give Ferreira some credit though. Dude has a hell of a chin. He should have been knocked out like 10 times in that fight.

Marvin Vettori looked damn good training under Rafael Cordeiro. He called out Paulo Costa after the fight so his confidence is sky high.

DWTNCS S03E04 Risk $1,675.52

Antonio Arroyo (-101) vs Stephen Regman $202.02 for $200.00
Antonio Arroyo (-103) vs Stephen Regman $206.00 for $200.00
Antonio Arroyo wins inside distance (+175) $50.00 for $87.50

Ode Osbourne (+170) vs Armando Villarreal $200.00 for $340.00
Armando Villarreal wins by 3 round decision (+205) $50.00 for $102.50

Don'tale Mayes (-160) vs Ricardo Prasel $160.00 for $100.00
Don'tale Mayes (-160) vs Ricardo Prasel $160.00 for $100.00
Don'tale Mayes (-170) vs Ricardo Prasel $340.00 for $200.00
Don'tale Mayes/Ricardo Prasel goes 3 round distance (+225) $50.00 for $112.00
Don'tale Mayes/Ricardo Prasel goes 3 round distance (+200) $50.00 for $100.00

Kevin Syler/Lance Lawrence won’t go 3 round distance (-245) $122.50 for $50.00

Brendan Allen wins inside distance (-170) vs Aaron Jeffrey $85.00 for $50.00

i had villarreal. what made you pick ode? his tape was pretty unimpressive, had no head movement, takedown defense seemed non-existent. i just didn't really rate his subs from the bottom vs guys with pretty bad records. but he looked great in the striking before the sub. were you just rating length and reach?

Have two early bets for Saturday.

£100 on Vick at 2.37
£100 on Pennington at 2.37

Don't see a huge skill difference between Vick and Hooker, Hooker is more durable whilst Vick has better footwork looks the better athlete. Think this will most likely be a really close fight so happr to get either guy at these odds.

Was wary of backing Pennighton as she looked against GDR like wasn't completely committed to fighting anymore and missed weight. From checking out her social media though she seems to have turned a corner and looks in much better shape for this fight.

Aldana struggles with pressure fighters that can nulify her reach advantage and press her against the cage. The closest comparable match up is Evinger where she was pretty much dominated.

The odds look like typical recency bias as Aldana has had favourable match ups whilst Pennigton is coming off fights with the divisions elite.
Style wise I think this is a decent fight for Pennington and I have her as a slight favourite here.

i'm pretty happy taking hooker tbh, but i havent really done any tape on it besides my initial intuition.

juan adams seems like the play of the card tho. can't see how he isn't a bigger favorite. he basically beat Arjun bhullar whos an olympic wrestler. can't see juan having much trouble grounding and tiring hardy, though wrestlers at heavyweight have done incredibly bad lately. but juan should be smart enough to strike and take the takedowns when they come and not gas himself. his top game seems pretty decent, too. wrestlers who only hunt for the takedown have literally lost every fight lately at 265 though, so i guess i kind of see why the line is there, but i think juan is a little more well rounded.

Taking Adams for as above hardy hasn't faced a good wrestler and has no cardio and it's personal for Adams as he specifically wanted this fight after seeing his mother get beaten by a wife beater etc

On for a full unit at -111

Might get a few more but that's my first play this card Adans is big enough that he won't be bullied and knows all hardy has is a punchers chance and once he gets him down it's over
Smoliakov bring a can doesn't chance the fact hardy sucks and was on the way to gassing and possibly losing to Allen Crowder I think this is the step up where he fails

plus we always have equity that hardy will try to sneak a knife in his shorts and get dq'd or something.

roxy seems like a snap play at 120s. maia isn't immune to being outgrappled and she's not a punishing enough striker to make roxy pay on the feet. i wouldn't be surprised at all if roxy gets two takedowns and wins 29-28 with some equity at a big round if she can get to mount with some equity towards a finish or a 10-8.

maia has lost pretty decisively to carmouche and won a razor thin decision vs. alexis davis. Roxy seems like she's had amazing gameplans lately and she's only lost to girls who can out horsepower her. nothing bad about losing to sijara or nicco.

already loaded some on roxy, not happy maia missed weight.

Juan Adams has size but he's slow and not terribly athletic. His striking defense is very porous and he chases too much when striking. His wrestling credentials aren't particularly impressive. Frankly, none of his credentials are that impressive. if Greg Hardy can't beat this guy then he has no business in the UFC.

I'm sure the smart money is on Adams because stylistically if he fights a smart fight he should be able to win this with his wrestling. I'm not sold though (although he is a clear step up from the last guy Hardy fought).

UFC on ESPN 4 Risk $ 6,841.00

Rafael Dos Anjos (+125) vs Leon Edwards $200.00 for $250.00
Rafael Dos Anjos (+105) vs Leon Edwards $200.00 for $210.00
Rafael Dos Anjos wins inside distance (+335) $75.00 for $251.25
Rafael dos Anjos wins in round 4 (+2200) $15.00 for $330.00
Rafael Dos Anjos wins in round 5 (+3000) $15.00 for $450.00
Rafael Dos Anjos wins by Decision or Technical Decision (+275) $50.00 for $137.50
Rafael Dos Anjos wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+615) $25.00 for $153.75
Leon Edwards wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+585) $30.00 for $175.50

Walt Harris (-150) vs Aleksei Oleinik $600.00 for $400.00
Walt Harris (-155) vs Aleksei Oleinik $310.00 for $200.00
Walt Harris wins by TKO/KO (-110) $110.00 for $100.00
Walt Harris in round 1 (+180) $40.00 for $72.00
Walt Harris/Aleksei Oleinik Under 1½ (-160) $160.00 for $100.00

Greg Hardy wins by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+135) $75.00 for $101.25
Greg Hardy wins in round 1 (+250) $75.00 for $187.50
Juan Adams wins in round 2 (+600) $75.00 for $450.00
Juan Adams wins in round 3 (+1600) $50.00 for $800.00
Juan Adams wins in round 3 (+1600) $25.00 for $400.00
Greg Hardy/Juan Adams Under 1½ (-135) $135.00 for $10.00

Daniel Hooker (-135) vs James Vick $135.00 for $100.00
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+225) $50.00 for $112.50

Francisco Trinaldo (+183) vs Alexander Hernandez $250.00 for $457.50
Francisco Trinaldo scorecards = no action (+220) $125.00 f0r $275.0.0

Andrei Arlovski scorecards = no action (+200) vs Ben Rothwell $100.00 for $200.00

Alex Caceres (-140) vs Stephen Peterson $280.00 for $200.00
Stephen Peterson wins by 3 round decision (+240) $100.00 for $240.00

Irene Aldana (-135) vs Raquel Pennington $270.00 for $200.00
Irene Aldana (-150) vs Raquel Pennington $300.00 for $200.00
Irene Aldana wins by decision (+140) $100.00 for $140.00

Sam Alvey (+155) vs Klidson Abreu $200.00 for $310.00
Sam Alvey wins by decision or technical decision (+400) $100.00 for $400.00

Roxanne Modafferi (+122) vs Jennifer Maia $500.00 for $610.00
Roxanne Modafferi (+116) vs Jennifer Maia $250.00 for $290.00
Roxanne Modafferi (+115) vs Jennifer Maia $250.00 for $287.50
Roxanne Modafferi wins by decision or technical decision (+235) $100.00 for $235.00

Ray Borg (-160) vs Gabriel Silva $400.00 for $250.00
Ray Borg (-162) vs Gabriel Silva $486.00 for $300.00
Ray Borg (-165) vs Gabriel Silva $330.00 for $200.00
Gabriel Silva (+175) vs Ray Borg $250.00 for $437.50

Mario Bautista vs Jin Soo Son: No Bet

Domingo Pilarte vs Felipe Colares: No Bet

-----

Keith Thurman (+154) vs Manny Pacquiao ~$400.00 for ~$616.00
Keith Thurman (+150) vs Manny Pacquiao $200.00 for $300.00
Keith Thurman (+145) vs Manny Pacquiao $200.0 for $290.00
Keith Thurman (+124) vs Manny Pacquiao $200.00 for $248.00
Keith Thurman/Manny Pacquiao Draw (+2000) $25.00 for $500.00

God Raquel Pennington is so dumb, trying to box with a boxer instead of grappling and making the fight ugly. Glad I didn't bet that much on her.

In other news, 5Dimes has severely restricted my bet sizing. I guess it's a compliment in a way since it means they've identified me as a winning bettor, but it's also a huge inconvenience. Are there any other books that you guys can recommend for US bettors?

Alright, I'll take it. Nice job grinding out a win there.

lmao jesus christ juan you cant wrestle right off the bat, gotta let everyone get tired first

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1152779314124824576?s=19

Surely Pacman is going to get KO'ed

Fight has perked my interest, US anthem (best in world :-) just getting sung to kick off the event.

I'm pissed at myself for not betting on Walt Harris, think I was still gun shy from losing my ass when I bet Mark Hunt against Olyneck, but I mean in retrospect that was a no-brainer.

Also annoyed that Trinaldo didn't get the decision in a fight it looked to me like he won, but I suppose I can't really complain after winning on Roberson last week.