MMA Thread - Page 1952 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Jones does seem to have a good chin nothing Santos has landed has fazed him

Santos ahead in the 5th, won the 1st and 2nd was close though... I mean i'm 99% sure the decision is gone but you never know

This has been a downright TERRIBLE performance by Jones against an opponent who injured himself in r2

edit: now his legs completely gone

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07-07-2019 , 12:43 AM

#48777

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

This is ****ing embarrassing by Jones

I have it 1-5 Santos and 2 competitive... I mean I have it 48-47 Jones, and 49-46 with r5 wouldnt be the worst due to volume but Santos landed the big shots in r5

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07-07-2019 , 12:45 AM

#48778

WateryBoil

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Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 5,762

glad i had judges too lul.

damn fine card today except for the askren.

lol at the judging being so close. like did he ever hit jones NOT on his guard, besides kicks? lol. forward pressure was all jon for 90%+ of the fight.

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07-07-2019 , 12:46 AM

#48779

Joe Pulaski

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,346

honestly,
1-5 santos
3-4 jones
2 was so close.

i wouldnt have had a problem with santos winning.

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07-07-2019 , 12:46 AM

#48780

Kirbynator

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Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 52,004

Quote:

Originally Posted by WateryBoil

glad i had judges too lul.

damn fine card today except for the askren.

lol at the judging being so close. like did he ever hit jones NOT on his guard, besides kicks? lol.

Jones woulda lost 100% if he didnt hurt his knee

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07-07-2019 , 12:47 AM

#48781

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Split decision and fair enough but wow, Jones was disgraceful in there tonight and wouldn't have beaten a healthy Santos if he hadn't injured himself in r2 he takes the second and fifth imo given how close they were with his injury

Nuts

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07-07-2019 , 12:48 AM

#48782

WateryBoil

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Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 5,762

i mean he hit the air in front of jones a lot, if that counts.

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07-07-2019 , 12:48 AM

#48783

Kirbynator

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lol no

if you bet on Jones consider this a big loss

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07-07-2019 , 12:49 AM

#48784

WateryBoil

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Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 5,762

eh ill take the money lol i thought it was 49-46 ez

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07-07-2019 , 12:52 AM

#48785

Kirbynator

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Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 52,004

I thought some judges MIGHT have jones 49-46 because rd2 wasnt a landslide and gotta-beat-the-champ but I think most people had first 2 rounds Santos. Pretty hyped for the rematch, will prob be like -300?

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07-07-2019 , 12:54 AM

#48786

WateryBoil

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Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 5,762

rematch orrrr johnny walker? walker is crazy and would be like santos 2.0

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07-07-2019 , 12:57 AM

#48787

Kirbynator

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ufc still has him at like #12 that seems super unlikely, could be a cool late notice replacement or something

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07-07-2019 , 01:06 AM

#48788

CharlieDontSurf

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 14,811

crazy fluke knee ko by masvidal, didn't he try something like that at the start of Till fight but nailed him in the balls?

Never seen someone so stiff after a KO

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07-07-2019 , 01:09 AM

#48789

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

rose-tinted glasses

also lol@betting jones in any fashion

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07-07-2019 , 01:18 AM

#48790

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Pulaski

honestly,
1-5 santos
3-4 jones
2 was so close.

i wouldnt have had a problem with santos winning.

Yeah, I also had Santos win 1 and 5 and had Jones winning the mid 3 rounds but figured the Judges might score it slightly differently as they often seem to do.

Terrible performance by Jones. He fought to not lose and then nearly lost because of it. I figured he would fight defensively but don't understand why he wouldn't have gone for some takedowns particularly when Thiago fell to the ground on his own so often. Quite strange.

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07-07-2019 , 01:41 AM

#48791

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf

crazy fluke knee ko by masvidal

Crazy fluke eh?

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07-07-2019 , 02:17 AM

#48792

WateryBoil

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Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 5,762

shades of Conor vs Aldo on that fast opening finish.

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07-07-2019 , 02:37 AM

#48793

Malachii

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Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

And also, since I've already bet the most that I'm comfortable betting on this, I'll just put this out there even though this fight is a long ways off: I think that there is great value in Jan Blachowicz vs Luke Rockhold. Rockhold has always been overrated, he's a so/so striker with poor striking defense but has an exceptional top game on the ground. In his last 3 fights he's been KO'd twice and was getting lit up by David Branch before taking him down and pounding him out. He's also arrogant, which is not a good quality to have in a fighter. It's also not clear to me how well his frame is going to translate to 205, he's a very lean guy and moving up in weight by 20 pounds is a big question mark.

Unless he's made significant striking improvements under Henry Hooft, I think he's going to be at a significant striking disadvantage to Blachowicz, who is very smart and has an exceptional jab, and I don't think he's going to be able to take Blachowicz down to use his number 1 asset, which is his crushing top game. Blachowicz is smart, tough, and generally underrated. I like him a lot as an underdog in this fight.

Thank you Mr. Blachowicz. I don't think I'm going to make too many posts like this in the future, but hope that some of you guys came along for the ride.

Blachowicz actually bailed me out of a lot of trouble since I got owned on Marshman, but hey, nobody bats 1.000. Ended up making about ~$3,100 for the night and up almost 11k since May.

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07-07-2019 , 02:37 AM

#48794

CharlieDontSurf

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 14,811

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

Crazy fluke eh?

It was the quickest KO in history from a flying knee at distance at the opening bell. Like Werdum's weird running head kick at the opening he did vs. Brown.

Yes, I would still consider it a fluke KO by flying knee.

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07-07-2019 , 02:54 AM

#48795

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

I'm not understanding your point. Werdum threw a kick to open a fight (something I don't recall him doing in any other fight) and he caught his opponent in the chin with it. That's a fluke? You don't think he had a reason for throwing that kick? The reason Masvidal did this knee is because Ben Askren goes haphazardly for takedowns.

Masvidal said there were 3 possible outcomes to the knee and none of them were bad for him (he was very confident that he could scramble back to his feet if taken down).

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07-07-2019 , 03:07 AM

#48796

Malachii

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Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Yeah I don't think it's fair to call Masvidal's KO a fluke, he went for a shot that was basically a free option for him (worst case scenario is he gets grabbed, and that was gonna happen anyways.) That's smart strategy and exploiting a vulnerability in the other guy's style since Askren's not really a puncher and doesn't have the skillset to threaten a KO against a crazy flying knee like that.

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07-07-2019 , 03:22 AM

#48797

CharlieDontSurf

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 14,811

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

I call it a fluke cuz it works once and then the surprise element is taken away. It strikes me as incredibly high variance. It is highly unlikely to work again.

Mazvidal could def hit Usman or Ben with a normal flying knee again. But this was the start of the fight, two fighters moving towards each other from opposite sides and Maz breaks out in a full sprint and launches at Ben from like 4-6 feet away.

How often do u see that with a flying knee?? Which is why it's both so lethal if it connects given the running head start and also is timed perfectly to catch an opponent off guard when two fighters are just starting a fight.

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07-07-2019 , 04:41 AM

#48798

WateryBoil

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Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 5,762

still its up there as one of the best ko's ever, with like yair/zombie last second 5th round finish being my other recent pick

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07-07-2019 , 10:58 AM

#48799

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

It probably wouldn't work against Askren again because Askren will make adjustments to his game. Still, I doubt he would have tried this flying knee vs most top wrestlers. His team saw this specific hole in Askren's game that he often leads with his head and they felt Masvidal could scramble back to his feet if taken down. If those 2 elements don't exist this wouldn't have even been part of the gameplan.

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07-07-2019 , 12:11 PM

#48800

CharlieDontSurf

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 14,811

Quote:

Originally Posted by WateryBoil

still its up there as one of the best ko's ever, with like yair/zombie last second 5th round finish being my other recent pick

totally agree there. If not for the Yair's being so dramatic at very end of a massive war, I think this would win out given how asleep Ben was from KO.

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