If the arm did indeed go limp because Lawler was out then Herb didn't just make a mistake of stopping the fight when he did but he also made the mistake of not stopping it earlier when the arm went limp. Herb specifically picked up Lawler's arm to check if he was out and then Lawler moved his arm around and gave a thumbs up with that arm. There is no question that Herb made at least one mistake.

Herb knew he made a mistake and apologized to Robbie right away. I honestly don't know how this is a debate. Clearly a bad stoppage.

Anyone got any leans for this weekend?

Quite like Boetsch at 2.3, would back Rothwell if he wasn't coming off such a layoff.
Santos to finish in round 4 or 5 looks pretty decent due to Lewis's durability and tendency to gas late on.

yana kunitskaya is really big for 35 and really strong and should be able to control the grappling. theres a small chance she gets caught in reneau's guard or something but overall i think she's a pretty big favorite if she fights like she did vs. lansberg. reneau is def a better striker too but unless she lands something really big i just think she won't be able to keep kunitskaya off of her. bethe correira was able to crash into the pocket and push her up against the cage and hold her there and yana is insanely happy to burn minutes off the clock just doing that.

Lots of spots I like a medium amount but not a huge amount so I have a ton of medium sized bets on this card but nothing huge

No props I love yet but haven't finished research

So far I have

JDS -200

Iffy price as I initially made it about -200 but the more I think about it Lewis only has one way to win - via a hulksmash KO. He said he's worried about his cardio this fight which means it won't be drastically better and he's always been ridiculously hittable so he's more likely to gas faster rather than sooner against a technical volume striker for HW in JDS. JDS has good enough TDD to keep it standing too unless it's off the back of getting rocked or whatever

Basically, JDS chin isn't what it was pre-Cain, but he did weather some adversity against Tuivasa before capitalising off a mistake to get the win. Lewis is a guy i've alternated between thinking is over and under rated (I backed him against Volkov but faded against Hunt for example) and I think JDS is basically a better Hunt with more range pace and cardio

I just don't think Lewis is fast enough to catch JDS with the one punch KO more than a third of the time before he's standing there with his hands on his hips mid 2nd round and is a punching bag for the rest of the fight until JDS finishes him or wins a super lopsided decision. Not going huge due to the question marks on current chin, but I do think JDS wins this fight slightly more than 2 in 3 times (but less than 3 in 4). Would love to see JDS make one more run to a title shot - he won't win the belt in 2019 or anything but JDS and Cain modernised HW and i'd love to see him do well. Lewis has personality and has grown on me but he has a very limited skill ceiling because of the gas tank issues and he just isn't that fast and doesn't have NCAA wrestling to use his hulk smash from top position unless people make mistakes

Millender -110

Obviously his TDD is a concern and honestly I know i've seen EZDS fight a ton but can barely remember him - Millender stands out to me as a future star if he can fix his TDD and by all accounts i've read EZDS seems to be a striker and if he's content to trade then I like Millender in a pickem. Strickland is a good win, but he's not a world beater - you can say similar about Siyar and current Alves I guess but i'm backing Millender being the better prospect. It helps that he's huge and rangy.

Price +170

Means is getting up there in age, both guys can strike and grapple; I think I was too high on Price maybe after his win over Jouban, but the market might be too low on him now. I see why he's a dog, but +170 is a lot for a fight I expect to be very close and competitive. Gonna take Price as a dog here

Akhmedov -139

I actually called this one pre steam as closing shorter, i've been fairly bullish on Akhmdeov throughout his UFC tenure despite the fact he's hittable and has cardio issues - he has power and Boetsch is fairly slow and Akhmedov will connect on him a lot early. Boetsch does have a good chin and could take over the fight late if Akhmedov gasses, but Akhmedov could finish him early or do enough to win a 29-28 quite easily as well or even a 30-27 if his cardio holds up. Boetsch is 38 and is not going to get any better. He has power but he's slow, so Akhmedov not being the fastest technical striker in the world matters less he should still have faster hands than Boetsch. I may hedge with Boetsch r3 tko or something if I can find the right price but for now happy with this line. Somewhat surprising the market thinks Akhmedov is a huge fav to get a decision but less so to finish. I guess I think he wins a 29-28 a ton winning the first two rounds. Wouldn't be surprised if he murks Boetsch in like 38 seconds either though. Anyway, on to the next one.

Rothwell +100

Might get some +105 as well here if my funds grade in time on the right book. Anyway, he appears to be in shape and Ivanov is just tiny compared to him so I don't think Ivanov will be able to get his grappling game going anyway - Rothwell's BJJ a lot better than it used to be too. Rothwell is slow, but Ivanov isn't fast either and he's just so short i'm not sure how he beats Rothwell exactly unless he can take him down at will or land a one punch KO and Rothwell's chin is decent. This is sort of more of a back on Rothwell than a fade on Ivanov but it's a mixture of both. Unless USADA has ruined Rothwell I think he's a fav here. He appears to be in fairly good shape by his standards too.

Dariush -196 vs Dober

Basically, Dober has made a career out of beating low level UFC guys and losing to anyone good. Dariush is immensely more talented but has been let down by his chin. Dober's best win is probably Varner as Burkman was gone by the time they fought

Dariush has only lost to good fighters who can find his chin and hurt him badly or who are clearly top 15 guys; Hernandez, Chiesa, Barboza, and honestly Nijem was always underrated and he just happened to catch his chin. Dariush has wins over Rocco Martin, Ferreira, Miller, Johnson, Vick, Magomedov, all of whom are at least top 25ish he's no joke and this would be by far the best win of Dober's career. I don't think Dober can win unless he puts Dariush out cold; sure, he's capable of that but it's unlikely and i'll happily back Dariush at better than -200. He just has more ways to win. Maybe Dober could lie on him for 3 rounds? But it seems super unlikely. I just think Dariush is by far the better mixed martial artist and he'd be top 10 right now for sure if it wasn't for his questionable chin but is Dober really the guy to exploit that often enough?

Kunitskaya -180 vs Reneau (may get some -175 too if the right book grades in time where i'm all in on other stuff)

She's bigger, a lot younger with Reneau on the wrong side of 40 and she's going to ragdoll Reneau

I actually really like Reneau she has good technical striking and BJJ but she's tiny and old by comparison and I think that will be the story of this fight - Kunitskaya will win via being a lot bigger and stronger and younger. Next.

Moret +125

He's steamed in quite a lot and while i'm not super familiar with him i've heard he's a decent offensive grappler and White has TDD issues. Blind tailing someone else I trust's read here.

Sorta tempted by Moraes as that big a dog but gonna pass; i'm super high on both Moraes and Martin and it's a shame one of them has to lose. If he gets above +200 I might though.

No interest in the other fights

Good luck all! Let's keep the winning cards rolling.

Line seems off for Moraes/Martin to me, I think it should be a pick em.

Moraes has beaten 3 other guys on the card lol... Means, Akhmedov, and Ottow.

Wasn't that impressed with the Martin win over Jake Mathews.

I was, Matthews is a beast he just has mental lapses. To get dropped like that in r1 and then wreck Matthews in r2-3 is impressive.

I lean Moraes too but think he's a small dog. That said i'd prob price it more like -160/+160. Will def back Moraes if price gets much better he's underrated too but I think Martin is underrated as well. I like Moraes more and hope he wins

If i'd made 9 bets instead of 8 this card Moraes is the next one, it didn't quite make the cut but I still probably wind up betting it just for action sweat later, we'll see I guess.

Sold my Price bet because I could get face cashing out and Pinny steam on Means. Undecided on if i'll rebet or not. Looks like my JDS price no good anymore either but holding there as I can't sell at face.

Got £200 at 2.1 on Rothwell
£50 on Moret at 2.35

Rothwell looked good at the weigh and given he has been running his own gym during his suspension. I think its likely he has still be working on his game.
Small bet on Moret as a few people that have decent records mma betting seem to be have him as value.

Might add a bit more later but Rothwell is my most confident bet despite his time out.

Glory 64 Risk $2,222.94

Cedric Doumbe (+102) vs Harut Grigorian $100.00 for $102.00
Cedric Doumbe (+102) vs Harut Grigorian $100.00 for $102.00

Anissa Meksen (-238) vs Tiffany Van Soest $476.19 for $200.00
Anissa Meksen (-240) vs Tiffany Van Soest $480.00 for $200.00
Anissa Meksen (-240) vs Tiffany Van Soest $480.00 for $200.00

D'Angelo Marshall (-256) vs Daniel Skvor ~$286.75 for ~$112.01

Michael Duut (+195) vs Donegi Abena $200.00 for $390.00

Murthel Groenhart (+100) vs Alim Nabiev $100.00 for $100.00

All on Anissa as well for big bets.

Will post my UFC bets later, on a lot of dogs.

UFN 146 on ESPN+ 4 Risk $7,566.18

Junior Dos Santos (-192) vs Derrick Lewis $384.00 $200.00
Junior Dos Santos wins by TKO/KO (+175) $75.00 for $131.25
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 2 (+600) $30.00 for $180.00
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 3 (+1000) ~$15.50 for ~$155.00
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 4 (+1500) ~$15.50 for ~$232.50
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 3-4 (+555) ~$27.13 for ~$150.54
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 5 (+1800) ~$15.50 for ~$279.00
Junior Dos Santos/Derrick Lewis Over 2½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00
Junior Dos Santos wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+335) $35.00 for $117.25

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos (+100) vs Curtis Millender $250.00 for $250.00
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos (-101) vs Curtis Millender $303.03 for $300.00
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos wins by submission (+725) $25.00 for $181.25
Curtis Millender (-115) vs Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos $230.00 for $200.00
Curtis Millender wins by 3 round decision (+204) $50.00 for $102.00

Tim Means (-189) vs Niko Price $377.36 for $200.00
Tim Means (-195) vs Niko Price $195.00 for $100.00
Tim Means (-199) vs Niko Price $199.00 for $100.00
Tim Means -3½ points (-130) $130.00 for $100.00
Tim Means/Niko Price Over 1½ (-137) $137.00 for $100.00

Ben Rothwell (+110) vs Blagoy Ivanov $200.00 for $220.00
Ben Rothwell +3½ points (-155) $155.00 for $100.00
Ben Rothwell +3½ points (-160) $200.00 for $125.00
Ben Rothwell scorecards = no action (-108) $108.00 for $100.00
Ben Rothwell scorecards = no action (-125) $156.25 for $125.00
Ben Rothwell wins inside distance (+235) $65.00 for $152.75
Ben Rothwell/Blagoy Ivanov Over 1½ (-179) $357.14 for $200.00
Ben Rothwell/Blagoy Ivanov Over 1½ (-180) $360.00 for $200.00

Beneil Dariush (-185) vs Drew Dober $370.00 for $200.00
Beneil Dariush wins by submission (+270) $40.00 for $108.00

Tim Boetsch (+121) vs Omari Akhmedov $100.00 for $121.00
Tim Boetsch +3½ points (-155) $155.00 for $100.00
Tim Boetsch wins in round 3 (+1025) $15.00 for $153.75
Tim Boetsch/Omari Akhmedov won't go 3 round distance (-185) $185.00 for $100.00

Anthony Rocco Martin (-200) vs Sergio Moraes $200.00 for $100.00

Yana Kunitskaya (-175) vs Marion Reneau $875.00 for $500.00
Marion Reneau wins by submission (+480) $75.00 for $360.00
Yana Kunitskaya/Marion Reneau Under 2½ (+253) $75.00 for $189.75

Grant Dawson (-175) vs Julian Erosa $131.25 for $75.00

Jeff Hughes (-210) vs Maurice Greene $210.00 for $100.00
Jeff Hughes (-215) vs Maurice Greene $215.00 for $100.00
Jeff Hughes -3½ points (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Jeff Hughes wins in round 3 (+1275) $10.00 for $127.50
Jeff Hughes wins by 3 round decision (+135) $65.00 for $87.75

Louis Smolka (-120) vs Matt Schnell $120.00 for $100.00

Alex Morono (-175) vs Zak Ottow $175.00 for $100.00
Alex Morono wins by TKO/KO (+385) $35.00 for $134.75

Dan Moret/Alex White starts round 2 (-280) $112.00 for $40.00

Junior Dos Santos wins POTN bonus (+134) ~$11.63 for ~$15.58
Tim Means wins POTN bonus (+210) ~$11.63 for ~$24.41
Ben Rothwell wins POTN bonus (+310) ~$11.63 for ~$36.04
Tim Boetsch wins POTN bonus (+350) ~$11.63 for ~$40.69

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos/Curtis Millender wins FOTN bonus (+195) ~$15.50 for ~$30.23
Tim Means/Niko Price wins FOTN bonus (+400) ~$15.50 for ~$62.00

Ok so we only disagree on Akhmedov/Boetsch I guess then Jim (I sold my Price bet)

Which side did you have initially and change your mind on for Millender/EZDS, seems unclear from your bets

You gotta love Espn+ for $5/mo. in addition to all the UFC, plenty of Coll BB and NHL that is not on TV.

took moraes by sub,green ko ...i agree boetch is gonna lose ...milender likely to ko his opponent

big on millender and rothwell.

decent on Omari Akhmedov

Gl

lil bit on the dogs
d.lewis
price
dober
moraes
green

gl

I switched from Millender to Zaleski.

taking hughes pretty biggish. this is a rematch from very recently. hughes won 50-45x2 48-47 in an lfa title match. think ezds is a play as a dog as well.

not sold on smolka, he's just such a bad striker. reminds me a lot of the inoue fight for schnell.

got hughes, dawson, and yana coming up. my make or break section with three fairly large favorites.

After round 1: Live In-Play Jeff Hughes (-140) vs Maurice Greene $140.00 for $100.00

i got 2-3 for hughes but they might give 2 to greene cause of that jab that knocked him down/ off balance. hopefully the score the body shot that really hurt him as signifcantly. hate the bet regardless.

Added Dawson -175 just due to the huge steam/arb vs Pin factor

Let's do it

we'll see if dawson can keep this pace.

Apparently he can

He nearly got triangled a ton tho and went full ****** w fight IQ in the 2nd for a while

I'm curious if it's 30-27 or 29-28; r2 was super close and my live cashout after r2 was pricing it as if Dawson was up 2 rounds so I nearly cashed out but while tanking r3 started and Dawson got an instant takedown so I kept it

Curious if it's more 30-27s or 29-28s as if it's more 29-28s I should have cashed out for ~50% profit probably

Anyway nice to get a win and be back in the black for the card had a bit more on this than Moret so back into profit. GL Kunitskaya next

Full weight class size difference. This is why I bet Kunitskaya

She's going to win a boring clear but competitive-ish decision which is about how I saw it playing out I think