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Old 02-18-2019, 12:51 AM   #47776
White_Gatsby
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Conor did better than expected.
Lol Conor's timing was way off, he looked really uncomfortable in there, did he even land a punch on Khabib???
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Old 02-18-2019, 12:53 AM   #47777
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by White_Gatsby View Post
Lol Conor's timing was way off, he looked really uncomfortable in there, did he even land a punch on Khabib???
It was the first time Khabib had ever lost a round in the UFC. Nothing to hold his head down about that performance.
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Old 02-18-2019, 12:58 AM   #47778
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Re: MMA Thread

that was quick isnt it...too quick for me didnt have the time to comeback from the bathroom to cashout loll bs

cain knee was already compromise
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Old 02-18-2019, 12:59 AM   #47779
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Re: MMA Thread

Ngannou hit him with an uppercut before his knee went out as well, he dropped him with that shot.
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Old 02-18-2019, 01:00 AM   #47780
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Re: MMA Thread

Ring rust or not??? Cain knows not to mess around in round 1 and 2, yet what does he do, he's in the pocket like a retard!
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Old 02-18-2019, 01:16 AM   #47781
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by White_Gatsby View Post
Ngannou hit him with an uppercut before his knee went out as well, he dropped him with that shot.
You're right. I thought Cain had just blown his knee out but upon review it's clear that Ngannou dropped him with that short right uppercut and then Cain fell awkwardly on his knee.
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Old 02-18-2019, 02:01 AM   #47782
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Re: MMA Thread

good job knittle.

francis turned a huge loss into a small one for me. so close to a huge win on bryan barbarena, ten seconds away from cashing. such is life, what an incredible fight though. hats off to those guys. the fact that the ufc thought it was prudent to throw a 19 year old sage northcutt to bam-bam is absolutely hilarious in retrospect.
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Old 02-18-2019, 02:31 AM   #47783
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Re: MMA Thread

Good card for me just had Cain Dec/ngannou r1 tko and binked the ngannou prop at +400
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Old 02-18-2019, 03:56 AM   #47784
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by White_Gatsby View Post
Lol Conor's timing was way off, he looked really uncomfortable in there, did he even land a punch on Khabib???
What he won a whole round in there Conor is still the most live guy to beat khabib at lw and that includes Tony.

Conor still beats khabib about a quarter of the time Imo and not convinced anyone else does at lw

I can't wait to get on Conor and Conor tkos and r1 tko vs cerrone I hope all the Conor is a can crowd shows up to bet. People are acting like him losing to the best lw fighter ever makes him bad.
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Old 02-18-2019, 08:14 AM   #47785
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
It was the first time Khabib had ever lost a round in the UFC. Nothing to hold his head down about that performance.
I think Tibau beat him 2 rounds tbf.
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Old 02-18-2019, 08:19 AM   #47786
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
What he won a whole round in there Conor is still the most live guy to beat khabib at lw and that includes Tony.

Conor still beats khabib about a quarter of the time Imo and not convinced anyone else does at lw

I can't wait to get on Conor and Conor tkos and r1 tko vs cerrone I hope all the Conor is a can crowd shows up to bet. People are acting like him losing to the best lw fighter ever makes him bad.
I was talking about ring rust, Cruz is super biased because he himself desperately does not want it to be true! Did Conor look himself in that fight? Did Cain?

So many other sports athletes, so many other sports, having form, being active at the highest level, it matters. Training only gets you so far. There are exceptions but those even the absolute elite of elite sometimes get effected. Most pro's still get effected 1 way or the other.
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Old 02-18-2019, 12:39 PM   #47787
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by tikmassy View Post
I was talking about ring rust, Cruz is super biased because he himself desperately does not want it to be true! Did Conor look himself in that fight? Did Cain?

So many other sports athletes, so many other sports, having form, being active at the highest level, it matters. Training only gets you so far. There are exceptions but those even the absolute elite of elite sometimes get effected. Most pro's still get effected 1 way or the other.
Conor looked better vs Khabib than in both Diaz fights, wtf does even look himself mean
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Old 02-18-2019, 01:45 PM   #47788
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Joe Pulaski View Post
the fact that the ufc thought it was prudent to throw a 19 year old sage northcutt to bam-bam is absolutely hilarious in retrospect.
I was thinking the exact same thing during the fight.

Pretty sure bam bam was close to a 3-1 dog in that fight too.

What a fight, can't wait to see that guy scrap again
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Old 02-19-2019, 03:18 PM   #47789
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Re: MMA Thread

i've liked liz carmouche at 125 a lot. she arguably won the alexis davis fight but kept losing rounds by getting caught in subs. don't think pudilova will have that ability off her back. she completely manhandled maia iirc, will have to rewatch. i was on carmouche and i know it was a pretty easy win. pudilova is a pretty tough brawler but she can be controlled with grappling, both giving up takedowns and losing huge portions of rounds pressed up against the cage. it usually doesn't come easy with carmouche because her fight iq seems to be a bit lacking, but i like this spot a lot.

and as much as i've loved thiago santos at lhw, he's got a tough test this week. blachowitz has an all time chin, and i worry if santos will be able to compete in the grappling. santos has been able to neutralize grapplers who can't get in on him, but jan is actually a pretty good kickboxer and should make thiago respect his strikes enough to get in on some takedowns. santos has seemingly an endless gas tank though, and could be the decider if this goes into the third round. haven't decided anything on this fight yet. my lean is jan but have to watch tape on it first.
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Old 02-19-2019, 03:52 PM   #47790
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Re: MMA Thread

Took Blachowicz 200 at 2.1

Like you say he is durable, really well rounded. Was giving Gus problems on his feet before Gus decided to mix up his game and take him down.

Blachowicz will be fighting closer to home this fight and will have the crowd behind him. Being a 5 round fight I think suits him better then Santos who relies a lot on raw explosive power in a lot of situations.
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Old 02-19-2019, 09:09 PM   #47791
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Re: MMA Thread

Easy Santos win tbh! He will flatline Blachowicz!
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Old 02-19-2019, 10:54 PM   #47792
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Re: MMA Thread

he might, he def is explosive, but i'd caution taking the kill or be killed fighter vs the guy who doesn't seem to be able to be killed. jan seems a little plodding, and he is prone to take a lot of leg kicks which might be a problem but he seems to not be too effected by them. feels like santos is more of a body kicker, anyways.
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Old 02-20-2019, 05:41 PM   #47793
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Re: MMA Thread

santos blakovitz is a toss , there plenty of good lines on that card !
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Old 02-20-2019, 05:50 PM   #47794
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Re: MMA Thread

Always been high on Santos in general but not super high on his fight Iq

I'd love to see him try and blast Jones tho so I hope he wins he's probably the closest thing we have to a rumble now at lhw

Good fight to see if he's ready to be a legit top 5 lhw and potentially compete for the title though.
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Old 02-20-2019, 08:31 PM   #47795
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Re: MMA Thread

At first glance I want Santos struve and khabilov at current lines I think but I do always overrate struve but this is another step down in competition for him.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:27 PM   #47796
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Re: MMA Thread

think i like diego ferreira quite a bit. khabilov keeps squeaking out decisions i don't think he really deserves and ferreira is a really legit grappler and his striking has had a lot of venom lately.
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Old 02-20-2019, 11:44 PM   #47797
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Joe Pulaski View Post
think i like diego ferreira quite a bit. khabilov keeps squeaking out decisions i don't think he really deserves and ferreira is a really legit grappler and his striking has had a lot of venom lately.
yup i like it too , i think khabilov auto pilot takedown isn't going to serve him well on that one !
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Old 02-21-2019, 07:00 AM   #47798
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by tikmassy View Post
I think Tibau beat him 2 rounds tbf.
Not on the official cards, but I agree that he won the round.

The rest of the lines came out for UFC 235. I love Mickey Gall -210 and Johnny Walker -144. Also considering backing the two big favorite girls. I need to get some data, but I feel like girl -300 or higher over perform. Not enough variance in female fights with KOs and game changing punches. Anyone have thoughts on this?
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:55 AM   #47799
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Re: MMA Thread

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Not on the official cards, but I agree that he won the round.

The rest of the lines came out for UFC 235. I love Mickey Gall -210 and Johnny Walker -144. Also considering backing the two big favorite girls. I need to get some data, but I feel like girl -300 or higher over perform. Not enough variance in female fights with KOs and game changing punches. Anyone have thoughts on this?
I feel women mma is prob the least variance and most profitable betting. I don't have any data myself but just from observation, you much less shocking losses vs the mens fights.

Also most of the time (99%) we can rule out tko/ko and have props for dec or subs, this has to be value, I just can't be bothered to put study time in tbh. A vast majority go to dec, if you favor a particular fighter, might as well bet by dec, with perhaps a small prop win by sub, this surely has to be +EV.

Some fights are also horribly skewed and there's really good value, think Nunez vs Rousey, Nunez vs Tate and Nunez vs Cyborg (not as much value but I thought it was there nonetheless).
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Old 02-22-2019, 01:47 AM   #47800
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Re: MMA Thread

Mickey Gall would be by far the greenest fighter Diego has ever lost to. Looking through Diego's losses, it's a pretty impressive list of fighters. It looks like the worst fighters he ever lost to were Matt Brown and Joe Lauzon (both pretty recently). All 5 of Gall's wins have come by rear naked choke. Diego has never been submitted. However, Diego has lost by KO/TKO in 3 of his last 5 fights. He had only been stopped once in his career before that (vs BJ Penn for the championship) It seems very likely Gall will catch him with a punch early that will result in a finish. If he doesn't though I like Diego's veteran savvy in a 3 round fight.
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