Why do you think this weigh cut is going to be so difficult for Cerrone?

Im going to bet:
Ostovich
Dillashaw
Hernandez

I think Ostovich is prob the best spot out of the 3. Though obv think all 3 are going to win. Will also play a small parlay with these 3.

TJ said he can easily make weight, he's not a big 135'er anyway, he walks around like 145-150, I don't see why it would be a problem for him tbh. He's had more than enough time to plan for this, it's just a matter of losing a few pounds of muscle, not sure why people are bringing up chin and cardio issues.

He moved up from lightweight to welterweight because the weight cut was very difficult for him and had several fights there. Now he’s 35 and trying to move back down to lightweight because he can’t handle the bigger guys at welterweight.

Going from 170 to 155 is a huge jump. I just don’t see it, especially against Alecander Hernandez who is a stud with tremendous cardio and very good fight IQ.

Cerrone/Hernandez is going to be a classic. Hernandez looks so small in the cage but he's a killer. He should beat Cerrone, decision.

Yeah I don't really remember anyone that has moved up weight for a few years and then gone back down successfully.

Hernadez is still pretty raw in some areas and rushes things so he could get caught but looks like a tough match up for Cerrone. I'd like to get Hernandez above 1.6 which might happen given Cerrone is coming off a win and is a name casuals know pretty well.

Often when guys are bouncing around weight classes in the UFC it's because they are losing.

Robbie Lawler fought at MW for 8+ years before going back to WW and winning the belt. Mousasi fought at LHW+ for 4 years before going back to MW. BJ Penn fought at WW+ for a couple years before going back to LW to win the belt.

im gonna take cerrone imo. +165 gives me some room to be wrong. maybe he gets pressured and starched, but hernandez is a guy who leans pretty hard on his grappling and im not sure its that easy to grapple cowboy. i picked cowboy vs yancy, but then i also picked perry vs cowboy. i just think cowboy is not a bad matchup vs alex if he can survive the initial onslaught.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robbie_Lawler

Although Cerrone has good height and wide shoulders he's quite thin and he said in his last fight that he wants to take MMA more seriously. A few years back when he was at 155 he said he could make 145.... which to me indicates that he should be on making 155.

Was leaning pretty heavy on Dillashaw to win but his latest talk has me worried his weight cut is not going to well. Guy's gone completely delirious, thinking he can take Holloway on!

how is the glover fight any different for roberson than the mutante fight? 185 is a better division, but glover is going to absolutely manhandle roberson on the ground. glovers striking is bad, and hes going to be in huge trouble on the feet, but stylistically this is a great matchup. hes only really lost to good anti-wrestlers lately. i dont feel confident betting on glover though just because of how well 185ers have done vs the shallower talent pool of 205. i really like roberson, but unless he's made huge strides since the mutante fight, i just don't know. still pissed cutelaba got hurt.

The thing about Mutante is if you watch tape on him he's got really good timing on his takedowns. That's not as easy of a skill to acquire as you might think. Roberson is extremely strong physically, he's not easy to take down.

I like Roberson as well and I would think he'd be at least -150 if he had a full camp, I'm just not sure what kind of shape he's going to be in here.

on the only takedown in that fight, karl was super super out over his feet on a pretty wild combination. pretty sure glover could find a reactive takedown there. i mean maybe robersons not as aggressive this time but also the weight difference will be really tough for him to stand up if he does get down. roberson is strong for middleweight, id have to imagine glover can wrench him down if he gets a bodylock or clinch.

btw, this guy has one of the craziest tapologys ive ever seen.

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter...ames-nakashima

10-0 no finishes, must be super boring l'n'p grappler but still shocked he never overwhelmed some bad regional guy.

So far I have
Glover at 1.91 for £200
Geoff Neal 1.61 for £200

Glover bet is a bit risky as he is obviously declining and has looked slower in the last few fights. But given his grappling advantage and the fact that Roberson is taking it on short notice makes me think this is value.

On the feet Glover will probably get smoked but his chin still appears to be decent and if you look at his wrestling against Cannonier and Cirkunov. Then he obviously has the ability to implement a grappling heavy takedown.

I really rate Geoff Neal, Belal is tough but I think Neal could be top 10 within a few fights and he should have the edge everywhere in this fight.

I guess I don't spend enough time admiring men's bodies because it wasn't until I watched UFC Destined on ESPN+ that I realized how much more shredded TJ was than Cody Garbrandt at 135lbs. TJ says 125lbs won't be a problem though.

Nobody's perfect, lol.

But in all seriousness, I think there are some questions here. A certain amount of fat is obviously important for athletes, there's a reason why really well conditioned athletes are usually at 10-12% and not the 6% that bodybuilders are at on competition day. I don't doubt that TJ can make the weight, but I think it's very much an open question to what extent it will affect his performance once they're in the fight. I think the value is 100% on Cejudo for this fight.

I think you guys are over exaggerating TJ's weight cut! It's 10 pounds, he can make that easily. If Max can still make 145 and Khabib can make 155, there's no doubt TJ can make 125. Khabib walks around 200 lbs and Max something like 180.

This is a walk in the park for TJ, Cejudo prob walks around heavier than him!

People act like Khabib is some giant. He's a good sized LW but he's certainly not the largest we've ever seen. 5 days before the McGregor fight his weight was 166lbs (Source). Obviously that's before cutting water weight so that tells me he's too small for WW...by a good amount. His previous weight issues were tiramisu.

Khabib is in good shape but even so he's way softer at 155lbs than GSP was at 170lbs.

im betting tj because stylistically its such a good matchup, but anyone who acts like the weight cut isn't a potential issue is joking.

Khabib was never at 200, prior to the cut that landed him in the hospital he walked around 190 (86kg). Since he adjusted his eating habits a bit I imagine he tops out around 185 nowadays if that

This I want to see tj on the scale and if I like what I see im betting him because cejudo has nothing for him standing and it will be hard to lay and pray tj even for an Olympic wrestler as he's a solid wrestler himself and he's not giving up a movement and size edge like he did to Cruz the only guy who outwrestled him and even then it was a 5050 fight and Cruz beat mm more convincingly than cejudo granted early in mighty mouses prime and at 135

I may take tj tko or itd too I honestly wouldn't be surprised if tj humiliates him in the cage and it's a one sided beatdown and I would be very surprised by the reverse I think cejudo can only win a competitive wrestling based decision

I wouldn't say Mighty Mouse was in his prime whatsoever when he fought Cruz the first time. In fact, he wasn't even a full time fighter until right before that fight, and the only reason he stopped working his factory job was because his boss told him to take some time off because he'd been trying to work with a broken leg he'd received in his fight against Miguel Angel Torres.

You're probably right he wasn't green or anything but his prime probably started one or two fights later and is either ongoing or ends with cejudo 2 well know when he fights again I think he's probably still in his prime now just reaching the tail end of it

His next fight mighty mouse had a draw with Ian McCall, a guy that went on to lose 5 of his next 7 fights. One of those 2 McCall wins came against Brad Pickett, who coincidentally beat Mighty Mouse the year before Cruz did. This isn't gospel, but I'd guess mighty mouse's prime didn't start until 4 or 5 fights after he lost to Cruz, around 2013 when he started finishing most of his fights.

I think Mighty Mouse is still in his prime. I picked Cejudo to beat him anyways. I favor Dillashaw in this one though mostly because his hands are so good. Given Cejudo's mentality a loss to Dillashaw will just make Cejudo that much better and I could definitely see him beating Dillashaw at 135lbs in a couple years but I'd be surprised if he's there already.

Disclaimer: I picked Garbrandt 2 times vs Dillashaw so just ignore all my picks.

I'm huge on PVZ over .500 fighter Rachael Ostovich as well as on Glover Teixeira over short notice middleweight Karl Roberson.