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Old 12-07-2018, 01:36 PM   #47076
Knittle
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Re: MMA Thread

Haven't posted here in awhile, but I've had a lot of success betting UFC recently.

Anyways, I'm pretty much all-in on Ortega. My biggest bet in sometime, and I only got at -110 . I wouldn't be shocked if by tomorrow Ortega is pushing -150.. something isn't right with Max and I think Dana wanted a headliner and pushed Max into this fight faster than Max wanted. He's fighting an absolute buzz saw.. who not only starched Frankie but has the highest level of jujitsu in MMA at the moment. So technical, so basic but so ****ing sharp. Ortega is special, and he has IT. Max looks frail to me, he looks sick imo.. his speech isn't there and the way he reacted to things about his health all week worries me.. just something about it feels forced from the UFC and I'm actually a little shocked that he got cleared in the first place to deal with another weight cut. I'm genuinely concerned for Max in this fight for some reason.. I don't know why but I am.. if Ortega lands that uppercut of Max this fight, I would honestly be concerned for Max's health. Therefore, I put a lot of money on Ortega.

Another bet I feel confident about is Schevchenko.. obviously at -360 or whatever it's at. I'll probably bet to win $100 because it's pretty ****ing free imo. If I was an odds keeper, I would of put this at -400 and even in the -500 range. Think about it, Valentina smokes Joanna in Muay Thai (Joanna's strong point) and Valentina can rag doll Joanna to the ground and whoop her ****ing ass. I mean Valentina can make this fight easy for herself, or give Joanna a glimmer and still destroy her on the feet. Joanna's confidence made her accept this fight, and the fact she wants the belt.. but it's not the same "Boogey women" who now has to fight the women who imo just beat Nunes in back to back fights but was robbed and is the best women fighter in all of the UFC. Gonna make a free $100 on this one.


Edit: I do think there are some value plays in regards to underdogs. Not super sold on anything, but I wouldn't be shocked to see myself throw $5 here and there on some heavy underdogs in this card.
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Old 12-07-2018, 01:45 PM   #47077
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Re: MMA Thread

Put £50 on Joanna at 4.0.

Was a little worried about the size difference but seeing the weigh ins there wasn't that much of a difference. I don't think Shevchenko will be able to bully Joanna in the clinch either. Joanna showed against Gadelha and Andrade how good she is in evading clinch work and takedowns.

Shevchenko is the better striker and her chin has never been cracked so I do think she is the favourite. However I do think Joanna's output could give her the rounds if Shevchenko plays the patient counter striker and the fight plays out at range.

Not going huge but at current odds though I think the value is with Joanna.
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Old 12-07-2018, 04:09 PM   #47078
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by foatie View Post
Thiago Santos couldn't finish that Kevin (?) kid from the TCS show who came in as a -600 dog.
Ok, but Thiago has had a crap load of other finishes in the UFC, 9 of them in fact. Kevin Holland has only been finished once in his career and that was by Rafael Lovato who is undefeated and has only gone to a decision 1 time in his career.
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Old 12-07-2018, 04:12 PM   #47079
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Re: MMA Thread

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Ok, but Thiago has had a crap load of other finishes in the UFC, 9 of them in fact. Kevin Holland has only been finished once in his career and that was by Rafael Lovato who is undefeated and has only gone to a decision 1 time in his career.
Very true. I should have expanded on my point. Santos came out like a murderer in the first two minutes and couldn't hurt Holland. Holland played around the majority of the fight with a gassed out Santos from the halfway point of round 1 to the end of the fight. With a move up to light heavy, I don't see him game enough for 3 rounds with a much stronger striker. Manuwa has been no world beater as of late either, but Santos isn't as fearsome as he once was IMO. He just "looks the part".
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Old 12-07-2018, 04:39 PM   #47080
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Re: MMA Thread

Regarding Valentina/Joanna, there may not look like there is a size advantage but there is. Joanna was talking about eating carbs this week because she doesn't have to worry about the weight cut much. Valentina has actually had a good # of takedowns in her career and that's really where size will be a factor if she chooses to take this fight to the ground.

To me there is quite a difference between having success at 115lbs and success at 135lbs. I'm a Joanna fan but it seems crazy to bet against Valentina here. Also, Joanna just had 2 blowout losses on her feet to Rose whereas I don't recall anyone ever making Valentina look bad on the feet. I said blowout because Rose beat her 4 rounds to 1 in that last fight. However, it should be noted that Joanna actually landed more significant strikes than Rose in every single round. To me, that's just another negative for Joanna because she could out land Valentina and still lose rounds because she is throwing with less power and causing less damage.
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Old 12-07-2018, 04:44 PM   #47081
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by foatie View Post
Very true. I should have expanded on my point. Santos came out like a murderer in the first two minutes and couldn't hurt Holland. Holland played around the majority of the fight with a gassed out Santos from the halfway point of round 1 to the end of the fight. With a move up to light heavy, I don't see him game enough for 3 rounds with a much stronger striker. Manuwa has been no world beater as of late either, but Santos isn't as fearsome as he once was IMO. He just "looks the part".
I do agree that Santos looks scarier than he actually is. He looks like a world beater at times but he will need to step his game up to compete with the best in either division (MW or LHW).
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Old 12-07-2018, 08:40 PM   #47082
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Re: MMA Thread

LFA 56 Risk $1,100.40

Killys Mota (-215) vs Austin Hubbard ~$241.40 for ~$112.28
Killys Mota (-276) vs Austin Hubbard $552.00 for $200.00
Killys Mota (-307) vs Austin Hubbard $307.00 for $100.00
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Old 12-07-2018, 09:36 PM   #47083
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Re: MMA Thread

Holloway lookin' good at the weigh ins.
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Old 12-08-2018, 12:51 AM   #47084
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Re: MMA Thread

Yep I agree Holloway looks fine/happy and made weight

Fired more Holloway at +100 to go with my Chookagain -175

Will probably wind up on Gunnar in some capacity although he is def smaller than Oliveira I see him getting the sub usually. Might end up adding a bit more on Max already got a nice bunch on it. The only thing i'm really scared of is an Ortega guillotine, but Max is going to be punching him in the face a lot and Ortega is definitely not going to be used to fighting a taller guy he can't bully who is slightly bigger than him

Might wind up on Theodorou too undecided there

Last edited by SwoopAE; 12-08-2018 at 01:12 AM.
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Old 12-08-2018, 01:16 AM   #47085
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
Dillashaw is an animal and I've lost a lot of money fading him in the past, so maybe I'll get burned again.
I feel like Cejudo is drawing extremely thin against TJ - yes, Cruz took TJ down a few times but it's not like TJ is an easy guy to take down and he'll have a size advantage and a much bigger striking advantage than his recent fights with Cody and Cruz - Cejudo's striking is much improved, but he can't hang with TJ on the feet

Cejudo's going to need to outwrestle a bigger man for 3 of 5 rounds and win via top position to win this fight imo

I'm almost certainly going to be on TJ in some capacity. Cejudo's striking is a lot better than it was but I just don't think he's going to be able to successfully take TJ down at will ever round or hang on the feet. He could def win a close wrestling based decision but I think it's more likely that TJ outpoints him standing or knocks him out
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Old 12-08-2018, 03:14 AM   #47086
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Re: MMA Thread

Glory 62 Risk $3,286.28

Guto Inocente (-275) vs Mohamed Abdallah $275.00 for $100.00
Guto Inocente (-313) vs Mohamed Abdallah $625.00 for $200.00

Jahfarr Wilnis (-115) vs Tomas Mozny $229.89 for $200.00

Jamal Ben Saddik (-173) vs Junior Tafa $346.00 for $200.00
Jamal Ben Saddik (-175) vs Junior Tafa $350.00 for $200.00
Jamal Ben Saddik (-189) vs Junior Tafa $377.36 for $200.00

Benjamin Adegbuyi (-400) vs Arkadiusz Wrzosek $400.00 for $100.00

Luis Tavares (-280) vs Artur Gorlov $280.00 for $100.00
Luis Tavares (-303) vs Artur Gorlov $303.03 for $100.00

Tyjani Beztati (+115) vs Stoyan Koprivlenski $100.00 for $115.00
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Old 12-08-2018, 03:19 AM   #47087
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Re: MMA Thread

gl Jim

I added some OAM at -119 just because it's arb price vs Pinny and I don't have a real opinion on that fight so it can't be too bad if it's arb price vs Pin and gives me a sweat

Think I may have caught the falling knife on Holloway getting +100, he's back to being a tiny fav and the longest I saw him was +103. Back at -110 now Pinny.

So far I have Holloway, OAM, Chookagain and i'm fairly sure i'll wind up with Gunnar and maybe Joanna if I can find +300ish and maybe Theodorou or Katona, although the Katona price seems to be improving atm so holding off there.

Kind of want Santos but not paying that vig since he's prone to mistakes and the Manuwa fight is super high variance as they're both very powerful and elite strikers prone to making mistakes. I think Santos sleeps him but def not paying more than -150 for it. Will see what lines do I guess.
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Old 12-08-2018, 06:20 AM   #47088
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Re: MMA Thread

Max looking good tbh, but I'm hesitant to bet him quite honestly. On paper he should win but Ortega does have something about him, to be quite honest this is not a bet I'd go big on, just too many variables that can go in either fighters way.

Ortega has something, that something has shown in all his fights, we have to acknowledge this "it" thing, he wins fights when it matters, when his back is up against the fence, that counts for something.

Add in his sharp mind to find finishes, add in that he's improving in every aspect, his ability to finish on the ground as well as decent KO power, add in the fact that while Max looks good, we don't know how good until he gets hit and he will most definitely get hit, he always does.

I don't think this is fight were he is fighting a guy like he is up against a brick wall, for ex: Woodley neutralised Maja, Maja is usually live vs almost everyone except a really good wrestler who is not going to A. get taken down and B. is highly likely to fight of submissions.

In this fight Ortega is definitely live to either sub him or ko him, but I think dub much more likely.

He looked a little fragile vs Aldo in the 1st round when Aldo almost finished him and I think if Aldo really went for it, he might of got him out in that 1st round. Aldo thought better and didn't want to punch himself out but that was probably his best way to win

On this flip side, we all know how good Max is, I mean he destroyed Aldo twice, sure not an Aldo in his prime but Aldo still looked great vs Edgar.

This is a really hard bet, some people in here going balls deep on 1 or the other, I just can't see it, I see Ortega finding a sub a lot more likely, compared with a KO/TKO, just because Max's ground game is a little suspect. I don't think he will be rocking Max, while it's possible, just don't think it likely, but I do see him getting that sub, just can't get his ground game vs Conor out of my head.

I also read some counter arguments about Max's TDD, yes but guess what Ortega doesn't even shoot, and let's face it Max is also not a high level wrestler, we have to assume that if the fight goes to the ground that Ortega will find a finish. The more I think about this fight, the more I lean Ortega, just for the simple fact that A. he is prob 40/60 underdog standing but is like 90/10 favorite on the ground.

So with those numbers in mind and the fact that its highly likely to go to the ground a few times during 5 rounds, I'd actually lean towards Ortega. Owh yeah he can also choke you out standing, jump on your back standing, pull guard in the clinch etc etc, he doesn't even need it to go to the ground lol.
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Old 12-08-2018, 12:20 PM   #47089
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by White_Gatsby View Post
Max looking good tbh, but I'm hesitant to bet him quite honestly. On paper he should win but Ortega does have something about him, to be quite honest this is not a bet I'd go big on, just too many variables that can go in either fighters way.
Yes +1 to Max looking good.


Truly a pickem fight for me and I just rewatched many of their past fights and keep going back and fourth. With a slight preference for Max Holloway mainly due to 1.)more experience in cage against top fighters (connor, aldo2x, etc) 3.) media/mma fans are getting a bit whack with their accusations towards max (..."somethings seriously wrong with max, hes slurring his words" --- ...uhh Max has always sounded like this etc). Gotta assume if Max wasnt healthy and fit to fight in a 25 minute barn burner the UFC wouldnt have cleared him.


I'd probably feel pretty happy if I could get max for even money return or better. Anyway, Think it should be be one of more exciting fights this year.


Anyone want to predict where you see this line shifting come fight time? Hoping some late money comes in on ortega

So 12 hours before fight (current line):

Max Holloway
-110
[1 Risk, 0.91 Win]


Brian Ortega
-120
[1 Risk, 0.83 Win]

Last edited by MuffledFumes; 12-08-2018 at 12:30 PM.
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Old 12-08-2018, 12:50 PM   #47090
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MuffledFumes View Post
Yes +1 to Max looking good.


Truly a pickem fight for me and I just rewatched many of their past fights and keep going back and fourth. With a slight preference for Max Holloway mainly due to 1.)more experience in cage against top fighters (connor, aldo2x, etc) 3.) media/mma fans are getting a bit whack with their accusations towards max (..."somethings seriously wrong with max, hes slurring his words" --- ...uhh Max has always sounded like this etc). Gotta assume if Max wasnt healthy and fit to fight in a 25 minute barn burner the UFC wouldnt have cleared him.


I'd probably feel pretty happy if I could get max for even money return or better. Anyway, Think it should be be one of more exciting fights this year.


Anyone want to predict where you see this line shifting come fight time? Hoping some late money comes in on ortega

So 12 hours before fight (current line):

Max Holloway
-110
[1 Risk, 0.91 Win]


Brian Ortega
-120
[1 Risk, 0.83 Win]
You might be right. He might have sounded "off" because of mental health meds and be physically 100% to fight tonight. He's certainly well rested and has the same confident demeanor he had vs Aldo 2x. It's a fight fan's fight tonight.

If he's 100% and has his chin then he's got a great path to victory via overwhelming with volume / pace.

Vs Aldo 1, he didn't seem too eager to mount at first, but did well once he did.

If Ortega invites him into top position, it'll get interesting if Max bites vs. forcing the ref to stand him up.
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Old 12-08-2018, 01:43 PM   #47091
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Re: MMA Thread

I'll go with Max closes at -122 Ortega just above evens.

Yes there's some doubt over Holloway's condition but at 80% he's still a fav over Ortega and I doubt he'd be cleared with any concussion issues if he got KO'd and brain damage from it or whatever UFC would be looking at a 100m+ lawsuit

Fwiw I have now had two sharps tell me they have 5 figs on Holloway and no equiv for Ortega in the high stakes sportsbettors I know - I have mid 4 figs on Max @ +100 fwiw not as big as I initially planned, but happy with the size fairly large without being ridiculous for me

Added a small sweat size bet on Gunnar -143 to go with my Chookagain -175, OAM -119 and Holloway +100
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Old 12-08-2018, 02:14 PM   #47092
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Re: MMA Thread

i think holloway is sick sick value at evens. i honestly wouldn't be shocked if he absolutely runs away with this.
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Old 12-08-2018, 02:26 PM   #47093
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Re: MMA Thread

I think it will stay close to evens, perhaps late steam on Max, as he does seem healthy and sounds fine. I always said he doesn't sound off at all, he always talks like that. Likewise the UFC aint clearing him to fight if he has concussion issues, unless they have stipulations in the contracts that lets them get away from family suing their ass.

-Happy to play the over 2.5 at 1.61 in the Max v Brian fight.
-Happy to play a small prop on Ortega by sub in R1 & R5. Because Max starts slow and Ortega might catch him early or late as he always seems to do.
-Gunnar win
-Claudia R 2 win
-Claudia & Santos parlay
-Claudia, Nelson, Santos, Valentina Parlay
-Joanna on points
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Old 12-08-2018, 03:41 PM   #47094
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Re: MMA Thread

I like Alex Oliveira over gunner Inside the distance (by ko)

Holloway is going to keep Ortega at distance the whole fight, its going to be a long night for Ortega, frustrating I expect, D win to Holloway the likely outcome?
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Old 12-08-2018, 04:20 PM   #47095
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Re: MMA Thread

i just don't see ortegas forward pressure breaking max at all. i dont think he'll get cornered or get locked up in the clinch, he's taller than brian which helps... and being stuck in a range battle with max seems like disaster for brian. that said he is so so dangerous one mistake and he can capitalize but im seeing 50-45, honestly. that said i'm always wrong on ortega fights, so maybe you should load up on him.
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Old 12-08-2018, 05:36 PM   #47096
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Re: MMA Thread

holloway want to avoid any sort of clinch with ortega...as he can lock a sub in matter of seconds vs very experimented grapplers plain simple !
i believe that holloway will dominate most exchange and ortega can't turn this fight around basically anytime!
oliveira will like always over power his opponent...imo thats the best bet on that card!
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Old 12-08-2018, 05:54 PM   #47097
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Re: MMA Thread

Clean sweep on Glory 62, $1515 profit. Hyped for UFC 231 tonight.
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Old 12-08-2018, 07:28 PM   #47098
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Re: MMA Thread

UFC 231 Risk $4,107.70

Max Holloway/Brian Ortega Over 3½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00
Max Holloway wins inside distance (+410) $75.00 for $307.50
Max Holloway wins in round 4 (+1600) $25.00 for $400.00
Brian Ortega wins in round 4 (+1200) $25.00 for $300.00
Max Holloway wins in round 5 (+2200) $15.00 for $330.00
Brian Ortega wins in round 5 (+2600) $15.00 for $390.00
Max Holloway wins in rounds 4 or 5 (+1150) ~$27.20 for ~$312.80
Brian Ortega wins in rounds 4 or 5 (+740) ~$27.20 for ~$201.28
Max Holloway/Brian Ortega bout won in round 4, 5 or on points (-137) ~$74.80 for ~$55.00
Max Holloway/Brian Ortega Draw (+8500) $10.00 for $850.00

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+293) vs Valentina Shevchenko $100.00 for $293.00
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+280) vs Valentina Shevchenko $100.00 for $280.00
Joanna Jedrzejczyk +5½ points (-165) $165.00 for $100.00
Joanna Jedrzejczyk/Valentina Shevchenko Draw (+7500) $10.00 for $750.00

Gunnar Nelson (-134) vs Alex Oliveira $536.00 for $400.00
Gunnar Nelson (-135) vs Alex Oliveira $270.00 for $200.00
Gunnar Nelson (-140) vs Alex Oliveira $280.00 for $200.00
Alex Oliveira (+125) vs Gunnar Nelson $200.00 for $250.00
Gunnar Nelson wins by submission (+145) $100.00 for $145.00

Kyle Bochniak (+145) vs Hakeem Dawodu $100.00 for $145.00

Jimi Manuwa (+173) vs Thiago Santos $100.00 for $173.00
Jimi Manuwa/Thiago Santos Under 1½ (-165) $165.00 for $100.00

Nina Ansaroff +3½ points (-115) vs Claudia Gadelha $115.00 for $100.00

Gilbert Burns (+104) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier $100.00 for $104.00

Jessica Eye (+180) vs Katlyn Chookagian $200.00 for $360.00

Elias Theodorou (+175) vs Eryk Anders $200.00 for $350.00

Brad Katona (-165) vs Matthew Lopez $165.00 for $100.00

Chad Laprise/Dhiego Lima Under 1½ (+145) $100.00 for $145.00
Chad Laprise/Dhiego Lima Under 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00

Carlos Diego Ferreira (-485) vs Kyle Nelson $485.00 for $100.00

Aleksandar Rakic wins inside distance (-145) vs Devin Clark $72.50 for $50.00
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Old 12-08-2018, 07:45 PM   #47099
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Re: MMA Thread

^ wow, picking lots of underdogs.
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Old 12-08-2018, 08:29 PM   #47100
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Re: MMA Thread

i like the draw 10 for 850 lol
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