That is the problem for a lot of people. What sucks is after he gets on the scale the line will move really fast if he looks off or the other way if he looks and sounds good.

I think I'll grab a small piece now on Max and add more if things look ok.

I could definitely see Holloway picking apart Ortega from the outside and winning a decision. That being said, I've had it in my head for a long time that Ortega will be champion. He's such an impressive talent, and the optimist in me is picking Ortega, although I wouldn't put money on either.

I think the big unknown is Ortega. How good is this guy really? It's pretty clear these two fighters are a step above the other featherweights in the Top 10. However, I think Ortega may be even better than we realize. On the flip side, maybe he'll just be a 5 round punching bag for Holloway.

One interesting note, Ortega has finished all 7 of his UFC opponents (including the No Contest) and he finished them all in a different way. 1 KO by punch, 1 KO by Knee, 1 TKO by punches, 1 Rear Naked Choke, 1 Triangle Choke, 1 guillotine choke, and 1 flying guillotine choke.

worth noting he was losing most of those fights badly before the decision.

I have no idea how Ortega sub is +220 if his ML is +101 obviously if he wins itll be by sub the vast majority of the time

Max -5.5 pts +140 looks solid but prob not enough liquidity at 5d for the bet I plan to fire on this one just waiting to make sure he looks good at weigh in then loading the cannons on Max at whatever the best price I can get is

Moicano and Zabit are more likely to be future champs than Ortega imo although I wouldn't be surprised if Holloway rules FW through his prime.

The casuals I know all seem to love Ortega here and be buying the hype. One promising thing for me is a multimillionaire sharp I know fired 40k on Holloway already so someone's on the other side of that money.

I hit the over 3½ rounds at -115 for Holloway/Ortega.

Ortega is not a good point fighter for sure. He normally loses the significant strike stat by quite a bit. Thing is, MMA judges don't award rounds based on the # of strikes landed (ie point fighting). Ortega is generally moving forward and walks through punches and his punches tend to have a lot more pop than his opponents and judges take all that into account when awarding rounds. Fans generally just look at significant stats #s to determine who won the standup, but I'm not even sure judges have access to those #s (last UFC broadcast it was mentioned they don't).

If you were to judge the Ortega vs Moicano fight on significant strikes, Moicano was winning easily. However, he wasn't winning that fight, at least not according to any of the judges. All three judges scored it even through 2, all awarding Ortega round 1 despite Moicano having a 41 to 21 advantage in significant strikes that round.

Clay Guida is another fighter who was supposedly beating Ortega but Guida was only up on 1 of the judges 3 scorecards. He was dead even on the other 2 going into the 3rd and Ortega was winning the 3rd round handily prior to knocking Guida out...32 to 20 on significant strikes in the 3rd but more importantly Ortega's strikes were quite damaging whereas Guida landed less than a handful of decent shots.

I suppose judges gave Swanson the 1st round vs Ortega (haven't seen the scorecard) but I'm not sure that's even right. Swanson was saved by the bell in the 1st otherwise he goes to sleep. Either way though Ortega finished him in round 2 of a 5 round fight.

I haven't seen the Tavares scorecard but I read that it was 19-19, 20-18 Ortega, and 20-18 Tavares. Ortega was winning round 3 handily, at one point knocking out Tavares's mouthpiece..Tavares looked stunned and the ref paused the fight to get the mouthpiece (potentially saving Tavares). Also, it should be noted that the fight was nearly stopped at the end of 2 due to a super nasty cut on Tavares's forehead (above his right eye).

While it may have seemed he was losing all those fights upon review the only UFC fight Ortega was really losing prior to getting the finish was the Brandao fight (haven't seen the scorecards but I think it was clear that he was losing).

Still holding off since the Gunnar and Holloway prices improving and I want to see Holloway weigh in.

Sort of tempted by Katona, he seems like a high fight IQ fighter at least from watching his TUF season

@Jim if you like o3.5 rounds are you leaning Holloway out of curiosity? It definitely feels like the longer the fight goes the more it favours him

After seeing the press conference, Max seems to not be all there, unfortunately. For anyone who wants to judge for themselves, watch his interview with Bisping from the last time they had this fight scheduled, then watch yesterdays presser, and then check out Holloway/Aldo presser. He seems to have concussion symptoms - which could make him getting knocked out much more likely. Sucks bc Max is great and I would love to see this fight with both healthy. Obviously I could be wrong, curious what other people thought about the press conference.

After watching press conference and UFC embedded all week, I'm shipping it all on Ortega. Max Diaz sounds like he can barely put a sentence together.

Holloway always sounds like this, however I do agree that Ortega isn't going to be the easy fight I initially thought he'd be. I'm having major 2nd thoughts here, Ortega is pretty special granted he did get outclassed vs Mociano and Holloway is simply put a better version of him, so why am I hesitant?

Couple things that are bothering me, firstly the obvious health issues of Max, I was willing to overlook because look at Khabib, he went to hospital too and did ok afterwards.

I have some other issues though, I think Ortega can hang for 25 minutes, he might slow down in the later rounds and not press as much but I havent seen cardio issues, so now I'm thinking Max has to avoid getting choked out for 25 full minutes because it's likely that it will go the distance a good amount of the time. Max didn't look great on the ground, Conor dominated him, he couldn't get back up.

Ortega will happily pull guard or even rock him as Max is sweating the ground game, like Conor v Khabib for example.

Man, I can't help but think Ortega is going to grab a hold of him and choke him out, plain and simple, sure Max isn't a ******ed Swanson that will just give his neck away but all it takes is 1 mistake and he's toast, and just look how many times they have made that 1 mistake, ffs in fights were they could of stood on their head for 3 minutes and won, you know!

Sure Max should outclass him standing but Ortega got a hell of a chin, he is a good striker, not great like Max but all he has to do is hang in with him and wait for 1 mistake. Not only that but he could find a finish early on in the 1st 2 rounds, especially in the 1st 2, that;s when Max is feeling his opponents out, he could get caught of guard, especially as Ortega starts aggressively.

Thing is if Max comes out fighting the way he usually does, the way he fought Aldo twice, the best version of Max, then it does look like a lock bet, as Ortega really only has a punchers chance (submission chance). Can we safely assume this? All in all, it's a difficult bet, I'm not so sure anymore.

What about Gunny, I feel like this is a really good match up for him, Cowboy hasn't really got knock-out power, he;s more of a grindy fighter but thats not what you want to do vs a guy like Gunnar, I feel his style plays perfectly into Gunnar's style, this bet feels a lot more like a lock bet compared to Max v Brian.

I like Claudia, yes as pointed out earlier she isn't as good as when she fought Joanna for the belt but she should be good enough for Ansaroff.

I like Santos over Manuwa, sure if they both land either will get knocked out, but I like Santos here, even with ****ty odds, parlay is the play or a round 1/2 finish imo. I feel like you can jab Jimmy and he's fall over, but Santos has a better chin, he's also 4 years younger and still in his prime. I don't like Manuwa's fight IQ either, just can't see him winning.

Anybody see value betting Joanna? I mean sure on paper but at these odds it's got to worth a punt?

Joanna is drawing very slim imo, Valentina is a killer

My wife is Polish so I have to root for Joanna... but I'd have to actually be Polish to disagree with your statement.

I'm leaning on Ortega winning at this point, by late stoppage if Max is diminished physically or mentally as some suspect or even decision is not out of the question. If Max wins I do not think it will be early anyway.

matthew lopez is weird, cause he's such an insanely good 1st round fighter. he's basically elite in round one, then he falls apart due to cardio. how can a 135'er be so bad in cardio? katona can probably win but I don't want to have to put up with that first round buzz saw at -189.

He really didn't get outclassed by Moicano though. I just rewatched the fight. After Ortega won the 1st round, Moicano showcased superior boxing in round 2 and put together some nice combinations plus got a takedown (takedown was his downfall in round 3). Moicano definitely won that round but it's not like it was an ass beating or something. He never appeared to hurt Ortega and Ortega still maintained center control for a majority of the round he lost.

The 3rd round was pretty even. I'd give Moicano an edge in that round up to that point with 2+ minutes remaining..but it was still anybody's round to win. That being said, I'm not sure how you can say he outclassed Ortega when they each won a round, Ortega seemed like he was never hurt at any point in the fight, Moicano was a bloody mess, and Moicano got choked out.




This is what makes Max a difficult fight for Ortega. Ortega most likely path to victory involves a finish but Max is extremely difficult to finish. I don't think that finish has to come via submission though despite Max's great chin. Ortega has serious KO power and slicing elbows.

Max should outpoint him on the feet. Is there any chance this becomes a ground war? Seems unlikely. I have to assume that wrestling is the weakest part of Ortega's game. Max got taken down some early in his career (Conor took him down 4 times lol wtf) but he hasn't been taken down at all since 2014 when Clay Collard was 1 for 10 in takedown attempts against him. Having watched every fight ever broadcast by the UFC my only thoughts on Clay Collard are:




Agreed.

Looks like a bad match-up on paper. The odds are not good enough.

I'm not sure why everyone is so confident in Thiago Santos against Jimi Manuwa. I agree Santos is probably a slight favorite but I think he's at best 55-60%, which means this is not a bet at current prices. Jimi Manuwa is damn good and his left hook will put anybody to sleep if he catches them correctly with it. Yes, he's 38 years old but his only losses have been to the elite of the LHW division (and yes, at this point I would put Jan in that category) and if you look at what he did to OSP and especially Corey Anderson, the dude is no f*cking joke.

Thiago Santos is good and hits really damn hard but he's no spry chicken himself at 34 and the guy got KO'd by David Branch, who isn't exactly known for his one shot power. Granted it was a very well placed shot, but the point is Thiago Santos is probably a slight favorite but I think there's value on Manuwa. To use a stock trading analogy, I think if you bet on Manuwa you're buying low given his recent history and if you bet on Thiago Santos you're buying high. But, we'll see what happens.

Anyways, I haven't had time to do a ton of research on this card but I bet pretty big on Ortega. I just think the guy is a different breed of human, he's very ****ing smart and technical but also humble and coachable and a guy who will listen and implement an intelligent approach. I think he's a winner, and I think it's going to be very difficult for Holloway to stick and move for 5 rounds and he'll be at a decisive disadvantage in any type of clinch. If Ortega could catch Moicano in a submission (5'11 with an amazing jab who has SUPERB footwork and fight IQ) in a 3 round fight, he can catch Holloway in a 5 round fight IMO.

I also bet on Gunnar Nelson vs Cowboy Olivera, don't love the spot because of Olivera's athleticism and general striking ability but hey, I need some entertainment and I like Gunnar Nelson's fight IQ and obviously he has a much better submission game. That's a smaller bet for me.

My heart wants to bet on Bochniak because I love his heart and attitude and he's fought much tougher competition, but I just can't quite get there. Maybe I'm being biased, but Hakeem just seems to have that world class athleticism and I don't like betting against that. I did bet on Bochniak / Hakeem to go over 2.5 rounds though, I just can't see Hakeem finishing Bochniak given his heart and toughness and I can't see Bochniak finishing Hakeem because he doesn't have the power to do so.

I watched a fair amount of tape on on Burns / OAM before deciding the line is probably about right. I also think there could be value in Nina Ansaroff, I've always liked her and believe that she's probably improving more rapidly than people think because of her relationship with Amanda Nunes, but haven't had enough time to watch tape to pull the trigger on it.

Looking ahead, I think that Henry Cejudo at +170 is the ****ing price of the century and have bet huge on it. The guy is an OLYMPIC GOLD MEDALIST in wrestling, meaning he was literally became the best in the world at it, and he's applied that same mindset and work ethic to the MMA game. He's never less than 50% against anybody IMO. Yes, Dillashaw is a very good MMA wrestler but I just don't believe he can out wrestle Cejudo, and the cut to 125 is a big question mark for him. I don't like fading Dillashaw but this is just too good of a spot IMO.

Anyways, those are my thoughts on the upcoming fight. Good luck to all.

I'm on the Cejudo bandwagon as well (jumped on when I saw him beat Wilson Reis with karate) but is wrestling even going to be much of a factor in this fight?

Dillashaw is an elite striker now. Since fighting Renan Barao in 2015 he's only had one fight where's had multiple takedowns (5 vs John Lineker). TJ was actually taken down 4 times by Cruz (don't recall how that happened) so perhaps wrestling could play a major role. For whatever reason I just assume fights like this will end up being decided on the feet. Both seem more than comfortable just standing although Cejudo generally gets multiple takedowns in his wins.

Some good points guys, I'll have to rewatch the Mociano fight, because from memory Ortega looked a little out of his league on the feet.

I do think a lot of the fight will be stand up and a trade war, Ortega likes to press forward and Max loves to fight in the pocket and trade, he'll take a punch to give 1, with that, sure Ortega got power but I don't think Max has been finished. Ortega looked visibly frustrated against Moiciano, because he couldn't really land, while Moiciano landed at will, from memory anyway.

Should be an interesting fight, but remember Malachi, guys in here were high on Maja too, but he faded hard vs elite fighters.

As for Manuwa, I really just don't like him in a trade war vs a guy that can jab him on conscious. Sure theres value on him, as there is value on a lot of dogs in MMA, because the sport is so unpredictable but if I had to bet my life on it, then I'd rather bet Santos and that's how I like to take bets, personally. I think people get carried away with "so called perceived value" betting on dogs, I haven't got any stats to back that up but it's easy to fall into that trap of betting the dog because of odds.

With as many fights as get cancelled in the UFC you would think they would have something in Max's contracts that says no snowboarding on fight week. Hell, I was worried when he was just making snow angels. Snowboarding isn't as dangerous as skiing but still a good way to **** up your ankle or wrist. Andrew Luck sprained his throwing shoulder in a snowboarding accident.

I wonder if Cerrone is allowed to ride bulls on fight week. Daniel Cormier shouldn't even be allowed to walk on stage by himself.

I mean I get the sentiment here and I think it is easy to fall into the trap of betting on guys just because they're big underdogs (because often times big underdogs are completely over matched and are drawing pretty close to dead, and those can be profitable bets), but at the same time your logic is kind of like saying "I'm not going to draw to an inside straight in a pot with 20 big bets in it because if I had to bet my life on it that inside straight card isn't going to come."

I mean I think Dillashaw would certainly like to sprawl and strike. Cejudo is a very good striker in his own right but Dillashaw is probably better, so I would imagine that he would like to take him down so he can control and GnP him and grind out a victory on points.

I think Cejudo is going to have a big edge in the wrestling. Dillashaw is a very good MMA wrestler, but he's certainly not an Olympic caliber wrestler. On paper, Cejudo should have a big advantage there. We'll see what happens though, Dillashaw is an animal and I've lost a lot of money fading him in the past, so maybe I'll get burned again.

I don't agree, it's not like we are getting huge odds on Manuwa, we might only be getting just the right odds to draw to that inside straight, chances of it hitting slim, so why even bother, why play a high variance game, when I can be profitable without huge swings.

You know whats worse than chasing to hit your gutshot and hitting it? Hitting it and then not getting paid off on the river!

I understand if you think it's close to 50/50, you mention 60/40, so naturally thats a really good bet for you. I just don't think its close to a pickem. He's looking worse with every fight, I could be completely wrong though but his last few fights don't instill confidence for me to bet him.

Yeah dude, whether or not I'm right on Manuwa is very much open to debate, I think there's some value on him but in truth I haven't had time to watch all of his recent fights so I could very well be wrong on the handicapping here. I personally have a lot of respect for Joe's handicapping and if he's on Santos as big as he is then I could very easily be wrong since I know he does his homework.

All I'm saying (which should be obvious, since this is a forum full of poker players) is that thinking that fighter A is more likely to win than fighter B is NOT a sufficient reason to bet on fighter A. At the end of the day you're looking for positive EV wagers, meaning you think a fighter priced as a favorite is MORE likely to win than the books have him priced as (i.e., you think a fighter a 3-1 favorite and the books have him priced as a 2-1 favorite) or you think an underdog is LESS likely to lose than the books have him priced as (i.e. the books have a fighter priced as having a 10% chance to win and you think he really has a 20% chance to win.) This should be obvious in a forum full of poker players, but the logic that White Gatsby was using in explaining why he liked a bet on Santos was demonstrably incorrect from a gambling theory / mathematical standpoint.

So, to quickly summarize: thinking that Thiago Santos is going to smash him and is like 90% to win is a perfectly valid reason to bet on him if he's priced at -190 and that's how you've handicapped it, but saying "if I had to bet my life on it, I think Santos is more likely to beat Manuwa so I'm going to bet on Santos" is NOT a sufficient reason to bet on Santos in of itself because what matters is whether or not the line is priced correctly, not whether or not the median outcome is a win for Santos or not. Again, this should be obvious to a forum full of poker players.

Anyways, I'm happy to talk MMA with you guys and share my opinions, but I don't really want to get into a debate on gambling theory since right now I'm procrastinating on work that I really should be doing to write this post, so this'll be my last post on this subject.

Going to wait for max info to see how he looks at weigh ins and as more interviews happen, it's slightly concerning he's a tiny dog now Ortega is going to be so technically outclassed on the feet it's not funny unless Holloway's got post concussion syndrome (in which case he shouldn't be cleared to fight) or something or his chin is somehow gone from training he just isn't a dog to Ortega ever imo. If Max looks awful i'll make it a no bet spot but if he's even at 80% that's enough to be a fav here. Yes, Ortega can finish anyone with his power and subs, but he is not live to win a decision here and he's never winning rounds against Max due to Max's volume, the only way he can win rounds if with takedowns and if he can take Max down at will obviously he will find a submission but I don't see how that happens with Max's improved TDD and Ortega not having the offensive takedowns of say Edgar or Mendes.

I'm pretty sure i'm going to wind up on Gunnar or Gunnar sub vs Oliveira

I think Joanna is live to decision Shevchenko via higher volume striking output, but she's obviously a dog due to Shevchenko being much bigger and being a solid counter striker. If Joanna gets above +300 I might put a small bet on but passing for now. Current odds seem about right to me.

Considering Chookagain -175 vs Eye, Eye just makes a habit of finding a way to lose and Chookagain seems decent. I used to be fairly high on Eye but gave up along the way i'm just not sure she's getting better even though she finally won one.

Fired chookagain -175 just because it's an arb v pinny and leaned that side holding off on Gunnar because overall trends the other way and same with holloway who is a dog now. Hope he looks good at weigh in.

Thiago Santos couldn't finish that Kevin (?) kid from the TCS show who came in as a -600 dog. Santos is tough, but his tendency to wait, load, and want to counter punch will hurt him if he's waiting on Jimi to swing first.

My action this weekend:

$25 7-leg To Win $823.55
Laprese (-325) - Gadelha (-320) - Chookagian (-175) - Shevchenko (-350) - Manuwa (+180) - Nelson (-135) - Ortega (+105)

$50 4-leg to Win $266.24
Ortega (+105) - Gadelha (-320) - Laprese (-325) - Nelson (-135)

$50 4-leg to win 735.05
Ortega (+105) - Nelson (-135) - Manuwa (+180) - Chookagian (-175)

c'mon T-City!