took a small flier on keita. iron chin, good bjj, looks to have the size advantage in this one. should be able to grind his opponent out. He won't have it as easy as Warlley Alves, but I think it's worth a bet. no shame in any of his recent losses.

UFN 142 Risk $3317.00

Junior Dos Santos (-139) vs Tai Tuivasa $556.00 for $400.00
Tai Tuivasa wins in round 1 (+450) $50.00 for $225.00
Tai Tuivasa wins in round 1 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 2 (+650) $25.00 for $162.50
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 3 (+850) $20.00 for $170.00
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 4 (+1400) $10.00 for $140.00

Mark Hunt (+135) vs Justin Willis $200.00 for $270.00
Mark Hunt (+100) vs Justin Willis $200.00 for $200.00
Mark Hunt wins in round 3 (+1000) $15.00 for $150.00
Mark Hunt/Justin Willis Over 1½ (-132) $264.00 for $200.00

Mauricio Rua wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+825) $25.00 for $206.25
Tyson Pedro wins in round 1 (+125) $75.00 for $93.75
Mauricio Rua wins in round 2 (+1500) $20.00 for $300.00
Mauricio Rua wins in round 3 (+3300) $20.00 for $660.00
Mauricio Rua/Tyson Pedro Under 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00

Jake Matthews (-105) vs Anthony Rocco Martin $210.00 for $200.00
Jake Matthews wins inside distance (+280) $65.00 for $182.00

Sodiq Yusuff/Suman Mokhtarian Under 1½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Jim Crute wins in round 1 (+190) $40.00 for $76.00
Jim Crute wins by TKO/KO (+100) $75.00 for $75.00
Jim Crute/Paul Craig Under 1½ (+107) $100.00 for $107.00

Alexey Kunchenko (-290) vs Yushin Okami $290.00 for $100.00

Ben Nguyen (-125) vs Wilson Reis $250.00 for $200.00

Salim Touahri/Keita Nakamura Over 2½ (-260) $104.00 for $40.00

Kai Kara-France/Elias Garcia Over 2½ (+112) $40.00 for $44.80
Kai Kara-France wins in round 3 (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00

Mizuto Hirota/Christos Giagos Over 2½ (-295) $118.00 for $40.00

Damir Ismagulov (-500) vs Alex Gorgees $250.00 for $50.00

Woke up and took Matthews -128 for a decent chunk only bet of the card so far should have bet it at -110 last night when I was talking about it but he's steamed even further now. Still high on Matthews in general and think he has potential to be top 15 in his prime.

Thinking about JDS straight up maybe with a Tuivasa r1 ko hedge, or JDS in the later rounds/dec type of bet

Edit: Added a tiny sweat bet on Hunt +120, big on Matthews at -127ish average (found some -120 but at a book w link limits to go with my -128). Matthews bet is 10x size of Hunt bet

Still undecided on JDS, think the others are all no bet

crute for the finish for me with 10 seconds left!! both looked gassed im surprised i got it lols

Wow what a horrendous stoppage he blocked every one of those punches and wasn't rocked his feet were steady and he was ducking and moving with his hands up etc

I mean yes he wasn't throwing back and he was going to lose anyway obviously outclassed but Mokhtarians very unlucky there ref needed to let at least one punch land clean before stopping it he was very clearly covering his head and had blocked like 6 punches in a row

Matthews one of my fav fighters in the UFC this fight is so huge for his career trajectory, market loves it and i'm in good vs current line, really hope he can pull it off and not just because of my bet - I think if he wins this fight he's top 15 in two years and his next fight should be against a top 25ish guy if he doesn't it's such a huge setback he's back to fighting on random fight night prelims. I think if Matthews has been improving inbetween fights as he has recently each time out he's a decent fav though, in to -147/+130 pinny etc

i too have matthews, if hes going to lose its not going to be against martin lol


i think JDS by decision for +300 is good. tai has a good chin

hunt and matty wins i win like 1000 lol

10-9 Matthews close round til Matthews dropped him but clear Matthews obv

lol that Martin does the 'come on' motion then immediately gets dropped

Liking what i'm seeing from Matthews he's put on some serious muscle mass and looks powerful as long as he didn't blow out his arms on the guillotine attempt or anything should be a big fav from here

Thoughts on JDS wins in r4-5+Dec at +230? Considering that prop maybe. Idk if that's better than JDS Dec +300 or not

Also have to worry about if it's a close fight could be hometown judging for Tuivasa although good chance Tuivasa finds a stoppage if he's winning early or JDS wins a lopsided dec if it goes to deep waters

Worried Matthews has fallen in love with finding a KO punch here probably gave that round away through inactivity and a couple leg kicks etc

I mean he's clearly winning the fight as a whole so far but good chance it's 19-19

Shocked live odds are -400/+250 Matthews on B365 i'd def play Martin at +250 although I think Matthews still the clear fav he just needs two judges to give him one of r2-3 or find a finish etc plus slim chance of a 10-8 r1 if any judges very liberal with them on any knockdown

Wow, big comeback from Martin, crazy

Very disappointed in how Matthews fought in r2. That's a pity. Prob a losing card for me unless I fire another fight big

Obv annoyed we don't have proper live betting in aus as I would have hedged after two rounds

Upped my Hunt bet to get close to even if he wins

hmmm didnt expect that.

I think this one purely comes down to 'is Hunt completely done' if the answer is yes he loses if the answer is no he should easily handle Willis

Late Hunt steam has it back to a pickem I got some +120 earlier but got closer to +105 or so average on him after adding on

Edit: Hunt small fav now

Added on JDS dec +333 as well

Ok let's go Hunt give us another walk off KO highlight reel

Not a ton landed but a pretty clear Hunt round since he landed some kicks and Willis didn't land anything of note

10-9 Hunt liking his gameplan of keeping it at kickboxing range and throwing kicks and just keeping Willis at range and be ready to land a KO shot if Willis overcommits while winning rounds with kicks

Surprised it's only -138/+100 live after one round when i'm pretty sure it was a clear Hunt round

Looking a lot worse in r2 now that Hunt stopped throwing kicks looks like he wants to head hunt

19-19 seriously awful fight so far with no one landing anything significant

Hunt needs to go back to throwing kicks in r3 for sure

Willis -125/Hunt -110 live just depends who wants it in r3 really whoever lands a significant shot is going to win or if no one does it's going to be whoever throws more, in r1 it was Hunt in r2 it was Willis

Not confident unless Hunt starts to throw more gonna lose on volume unless he can land
Looking like a loss now

aaand 28-29 loss barring epic judging incompetence so dumb Hunt stopped throwing kicks in r2 and let Willis lead on volume

Hunt needs to retire and I have no interest in ever seeing Willis fight again that was a truly horrible fight pretty ridiculous to go 3 rounds without anyone landing a significant punch

ya that sucked i hope the main event is good. it cant be bad with JDS and Tai

i have JDS decision, but who knows

Pedro wins in r1/2 -138 and JDS Dec +333 to close out my card

Wow Shogun was done can't believe he didn't separate to strike

Should still be able to finish him but crazy round

Next time Pedro rocks him should get the finish but I need it to be this round

So gross he gets taken down

Looking like Shogun straight up was value despite the fact he should get wrecked on the feet any given round

Ugh the other bet I was considering was Shogun straight up too just because it was such a long price and Pedro is capable of mistakes like we saw vs OSP but wow. Insanity Pedro not only didn't finish him in r1 when he had him wrecked but then went on to lose

Congrats to any Shogun backers

0-3 for me obviously can't win for the card hopefully JDS dec can mitigate the damage a bit

Added some JDS -150 to go with JDS dec +333

Can't win for the card but hopefully get some back here

Edit: ok going a bit nuts w props, added o2 rounds -122 and Tuivasa r1 +500 hedge

Let's stick and move JDS jab on the outside and hopefully Tuivasa's chin holds up but JDS can implement his gameplan

Small loss for the main JDS bet won but the props bricked

Pity we got the stoppage there would have been nice win after r2

Surprise surprise, yet again another robbery in boxing, so bad Paulie Malignaggi said

how am I supposed to do my job here, explaining the fight, calling out that one judge, never work another day in his life in boxing.

I love boxing but this is the last boxing event I will ever bet on for ever, fantastic win over 12 rounds by Fury..


Boxing is confused why they are losing appeal... why other sports are advancing... yet do not improve the 1,, the ONE area they need to work on?

lost 2900 tonight, lost 5800 on pedro so.... not great. nailed the rest of the card

Fury looked great, he nullified Wilder for the better part of the fight, don't think Wilder touches him in the rematch, Fury will be even slicker. Really surprised after such a long lay-off but even more so because he really let himself go for several years, stopped training and pretty much gave up on life, so kudos to him.