JimGunn

Do you typically do an end of year analysis on all your picks, categorize them etc - you bet so many cards and different props etc, seems like you could really segment things down to see your success rate on things like dogs vs favs, sub props vs tko props, round bets, weight classes etc etc

Magny would get wrecked at 185 he may have the frame for it but he'd need to pack on so much muscle and he's too hittable against the power punchers at 185 and too easy to take down against the elite wrestlers. The only contender he's at all live against is Gastelum, and Gastelum really should be at 170 if he could manage his weight properly

Magny would be +1000 against Whittaker, Romero etc no chance at all

Anyone know who Aguilar is +3xx vs a chinese girl who's only fought cans? I know USADA wrecked her but still that seems too good to be true. Is the Chinese girl a legit prospect i've somehow missed? I don't see how Aguilar is +3xx unless she's top 10 at least

Need to watch some tape on Pavlovich and see if he's an accurate power puncher - if he is i'll back him, if not I may take Reem. Market seems to like the Russian early.

I think I want Ngannou against Blaydes, Blaydes is a sick wrestler but has some pretty weak striking and Ngannou did beat him the first time - Ngannou's recent problems seem to be mental more than physical and fighting a guy he has a stoppage win over might be good for his confidence as he knows what Blaydes brings to the table

Blaydes is obviously on an upwards trajectory but it's still +180ish for a guy who won the first fight and nearly took Stipe's head off multiple times in r1.

Rashad Coulter is terrible but I don't know if I can back a random Chinese 3-1 guy who lost his only UFC fight to Asker

Kenan Song's looked great in the UFC so far but against terrible competition but I might back him over Morono

I have no idea who half of the fighters on the next card are I do remember Xiaonan was legit but she's almost an unbackable fav at -4xx

Got £100 on Ngannou at 3.0.
Agree with what you have said. Really he has one bad fight against Lewis, he wasn't ready for Miocic but he still gave him trouble early on.

Ngannou is still pretty raw but his potential is still massive and those loses could really help develop him.

Also backed Ortiz at 1.37 for £2000, he was 1.4 a few days so getting money down before his price comes in even more.

i bombed weili zhang at -400. Aguilar has almost no chance here. Aguilar realllly struggles with girls who can out horsepower her, (gadelha and casey), and the gadelha fight was three years ago and one acl tear ago too. Zhang is a pretty good grappler so JAG won't really be able have much success there. Zhang struggled a littttle bit with the speed of danielle taylor, but she's going to be faster than JAG, and it's pretty tough to look that good against Danielle Taylor. JAG is going to be way easier to track down for Zhang then Taylor was, and she's going to be getting hit so hard. Zhang got cracked right on the button a few times by Taylor, and ate them like nothing so that's another positive. Taylor hits so much harder than JAG. I honestly think JAG doesn't win this fight 1/10. She's tough as hell though, so it's gonna be a rough fight for her.

Also I took Lauren Mueller fairly big at -444. She's pretty big and strong and will be able to outmuscle YU Wanan with no effort at all. IF you look at the records of girls Yu Wanan has beat you realize she's not really supposed to be in the UFC. She got ragdolled by Gina Mazany, for petes sake. The only thing that gives me a little pause is that Yu is coming down from 135 to 125 here, and that should help her in the grappling a little bit, but I still don't see her having any real chance.




In the same vein, I also bombed Song Yadong around avg -330. Song is a little scary cause he likes to trade in the pocket so there is some danger inherent to his style, though he's never been KO'd. But I love Song (or is his surname Yadong???), he's an insanely good athlete, really good power, good grappler, good in the clinch, he trains full time at Alpha Male so he's getting legit sparring and whatnot. If he really is only 20 years old, (Ive seen it disputed a little online, but who really knows) he's an incredibly legit prospect. His opponent is a late replacement for Frankie Saenz. This guy was a loser on the dana white's contender series who got the call after a decision win over some 3-5 guy on a bellator prelim. He's somewhat okay offensively, but he's really really hittable and his ground game is suspect. Song should be able to roll right through him.


Honestly, I'm probably going to back Yan Xioanan too. Kondo is basically a point fighting kickboxer who doesn't offer anything on the ground. Yan's going to hit her twice as hard as Kondo hits her back. I can see why you wouldn't want to back Kevin Holland at -400+ cause at least john phillips hits hard, but don't really see a path to victory for any of the other big dogs this card.


My intution is that there is value on Morono and Smolka, but I haven't scouted those at all. I think Coulter is value too, which is insane he can ever be value at -175 given how awful he is. This isn't a heavyweight fight though, so I want to see how both guys look at weigh-ins.

I would poop my pants if Jim did this.

Man is basically a degenrate MMA bettor who sees a number on something he likes and fires away, often multiple times.

on second thought, maybe the mueller odds are not that great. least im not too big on that fight.

Took some Ngannou +194 to start, no other plays yet will take more of a look closer to the card and after weighins

Feels like Ngannou should be closer to a pickem with Blaydes imo

How often do you think ngannou wins a decision? I don't think it's impossible tbh, he looked like the third round was at least going to be competitive in their first fight. both guys were pretty slowed down in round 2 in their first fight, but blaydes also couldn't see at all in his right eye so i'm sure that had some effect.

also, ufc should not let any heavyweight fight be more than three rounds, title fights included. i think this fight with three rounds ngannou is like -150?

If Blades and his coaches have even half a brain between them then they should know how to win vs Francis and they should have a wrestling heavy gameplan, if he decides to stand with him, like he did in the 1st fight, well then he doesn't deserve to win. Stipe showed us the blueprint and guess what Blades is a wrestler.

While we are getting good odds on Francis, I still favor Blades to win, I think he has the momentum and with that some confidence, he will want to avenge his loss, I think Blades shuts him down via wrestling if he's smart, he just lays on him for 3 rounds.

Francis looked legit terrible vs Lewis, who is so hittable and should of been a super easy TKO/KO for him, way easier than Reem, which is way i am careful with Francis right now.

If Francis had any brain then he would of realised that his after fight excuse of I wanted to be able to go 3 rounds so I held back, was just stupid ( I mean what are you trying to prove here, that you can go 15 min without doing anything, owh wow, well guess what everybody can do that Francis, even us mortals that never train) because Lewis's cardio is truly awful. In fact I'd bet Lewis would tire much more and easily vs him, so why on earth would you not fight your normal way, so he's either brain dead or some other excuse, perhaps Stipe hit him so hard that he got scared, I don't think he's been hit before that fight.

I assume Francis has to know that his Lewis gameplan did not pan out, and the best thing he can do is go back to being the Francis who beat the **** out of everyone including Blaydes and nearly took Stipe's head off in r1 - sure, if he doesn't hurt Blaydes in the first or early second round he probably loses, but he's probably a favourite to land at least one big punch if he just throws and with his power if he lands a big shot it instantly makes him a big favourite if not getting the outright KO

Blaydes is a good wrestler but he's too hittable for my taste, I have this a pickem fight, if Ngannou's head is in the right place I agree he's like a -150 fav and even if it isn't he's still live to KO Blaydes every second the fight is standing until he gasses and he should last at least a round and a half even if he's taken down in r1 which is obv worst case scenario

Pretty confident Ngannou wins more than 1 in 3 times yes Blaydes has improved but remember Ngannou won every round and finished him the first time they fought and it was only two years ago and it's not like Ngannou is suddenly past his prime he's 32 that's right in your prime years at HW. As long as he has a sensible gameplan I think it's a pickem at worst.

Added a few more bets to go with my Ngannou +194 (looks like I could have got +200 or better in hindsight but oh well confident my price is fine) - obv I think Ngannou is a fav if his mindset's in the right place and even if it isn't +194 isn't bad for a fighter with as much power and athleticism as he has at HW regardless.

I added

Kenan Song -110 - I was impressed by his last performance and yes Aldana sucks but he seems to have power and with the fight being in China in the event it goes to a close decision i'd rather be on the hometown guy - yes Chinese fighters have mostly sucked historically but this newest batch seems to be getting better and i'll take him in a pickem against a guy who has had his chin cracked a couple times and if it goes the distance if it's competitive he's likely to win a hometown decision

Hu +110 against Coulter - fade on Coulter who might be the worst UFC HW since Ruan Potts cuts to LHW, also Coulter missed weight which might show bad camp/bad weight cut and also the dehydration could weaken his chin, and he's been knocked out 3 fights in a row. Yeah, his opponent is a 3-1 chinese guy i've never heard of but I got +110 which is arb price against Pinny and i'll fade Coulter all day especially if he missed weight he looked okay for all of about 10 seconds against Tuivasa and has otherwise looked horrible in all 3 UFC fights before being knocked out. Hu is clearly not good, but he's fighting at home at LHW against an opponent who has been knocked out 3 times in a row, is cutting to 205 for the first time in the UFC and missed weight - yeah Coulter could LnP him or KO him easily, but i'll take the unknown factor over the 'this guy is definitely bad, chinny, fighting against a hometown guy and has not had a good weight cut' factor.

Yadong Song, Xiaonan, Zhang parlay -109

Song should win easily, can't see Xiaonan ever losing a decision at home with her style in a fight super likely to go the distance and Zhang is mostly just because of Joe's breakdown plus Aguilar is the bigger name and should have the casual money yet Zhang's steamed in anyway. Got a way better price than Pinny at one of my locals (Pinny has this parlay at like -140) and it gives me a sweat on a few more fights

All 4 bets sized pretty equally

i think coulter is one of the freest bets ever, tbh. i mean both of these guys are absolute scrubs, no doubt, but i think coulter is way more athletic. he's actually landed shots in his fights. i honeslty think the chinese guy might be the worst guy in the history of modern mma. both guys fought total cans before the ufc but at least coulter pretty much finished them in the first round. worst case scenario is coulter gasses himself out, imo.

I find it odd that so very many seem to think Coulter is going to gas.. but I guess his opponent is a cardio machine?

It would be really cool to have that data, but the data entry would be quite a bit of work even if I had software that helped analyze the results. Having not taken a payout to this point in five years to build my bankroll, I at least know how much I have grown my dollar bankroll and how much I have grown my Bitcoin bankroll with the simultaneous dramatic increase in BTC value since I first purchased taken into account as well. So even without detailed breakdowns I know how far ahead I am overall and how much I have to play with now. That's part of the reason I feel comfortable betting bigger than I used to.

took smolka at this price. smolka is pretty **** tough and i think he should be able to weather whatever the other guy throws and eventually get on top.

I actually do something like this - have a spreadsheet where I track performance on underdogs vs favorites and also break my results down by odds range (for example, I track how I'm doing in pick'ems to +199, +200 to +299, etc.) Don't really want to share my data since I think it's valuable in helping me select which fights to scout, but I think it's a good practice. If you're betting MMA with the intention of making a profit (and it is by far the easiest sport to bet profitably IMO) then there's really no excuse for not maintaining a spreadsheet to track everything IMO, it's really not that difficult, you just need to learn a few Excel formulas (sumifs and countifs really).

UFN 141 Risk $3,136.50

Curtis Blaydes/Francis Ngannou Over 1½ (-145) $145.00 for $100.00
Curtis Blaydes/Francis Ngannou Over 1½ (-155) $155.00 for $100.00
Curtis Blaydes wins in round 3 (+700) $30.00 for $210.00
Curtis Blaydes wins in round 4 (+900) $30.00 for $270.00
Curtis Blaydes wins in round 5 (+1500) $15.00 for $225.00

Alistair Overeem (+110) vs Sergey Pavlovich $100.00 for $110.00
Alistair Overeem/Sergey Pavlovich Over 1½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00

Song Yadong wins by TKO/KO (+150) $30.00 for $45.00
Song Yadong/Vince Morales Under 2½ (-160) $160.00 for $100.00

Li Jingliang (-185) vs David Zawada $185.00 for $100.00

Song Kenan (-115) vs Alex Morono $115.00 for $100.00
Song Kenan wins inside the distance (+200) $50.00 for $100.00
Song Kenan/Alex Morono Under 2½ (+115) $100.00 for $115.00

Lauren Mueller/Wu Yanan Over 2½ (-250) $187.50 for $75.00

Rashad Coulter (-109) vs Hu Yaozong $109.00 for $100.00
Rashad Coulter wins inside distance (+141) $50.00 for $70.50

Jessica Aguilar/Weili Zhang Over 2½ (-300) $120.00 for $40.00

Yan Xiaonan (-385) vs Syuri Kondo $385.00 for $100.00
Yan Xiaonan (-395) vs Syuri Kondo $395.00 for $100.00
Yan Xiaonan wins by TKO/KO (+425) $30.00 for $127.50
Yan Xiaonan wins in round 3 (+1150) $15.00 for $172.50
Yan Xiaonan/Syuri Kondo Under 2½ (+305) $35.00 for $106.75

Liu Pingyuan/Martin Day Over 2½ (-190) $95.00 for $50.00

Kevin Holland wins inside distance (-160) $80.00 for $50.00
Kevin Holland/John Phillips Under 1½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00

Louis Smolka (-195) vs Sumudaerji $195.00 for $100.00
Louis Smolka/Sumudaerji Under 1½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00

Everyone liking Coulter scares me a bit, he has no cardio, missed weight and is pretty terrible, I guess he does have a lot of power and the chinese guy is 3-1 having never beat anyone good - but the market has Hu as a favourite now - I guess I could take the arb for free money if I decide to but holding for now. Coulter has no chin and no cardio and that's a recipe for disaster at LHW/HW especially after missing weight. He might KO Hu in the first cpl mins but after that i'm hoping the Chinese crowd rallies him. Coulter has precisely one win over a guy with a winning record and the guy's record is 6-4 both guys have only ever fought cans outside the UFC and lost all their fights in the UFC, so who the **** knows who wins this but given Hu is a fav now and I got +110 I guess i'll keep my position.

It feels nuts i'm on so many Chinese fighters today given the first crop of Chinese prospects all failed except for Li, but this lot do seem better overall... I hope. The UFC should be wanting them to win/most of them should have favourable matchups though

This is my card atm

Decent size bets

K Song -110
Hu +110
Ngannou +194 (only one in bad vs current prices)
Y Song/Xiaonan/Zhang parlay -109 (also have Y Song to close an unrelated multi sport parlay so effectively have a bet on him)
Li/Zawada goes distance -122

Ended up adding a small sweat bets on Sumudaerji +161, Day +186 and Reem Dec +400 - decent price vs market at the time on the first two just for a sweat and capping read on Reem fighting conservatively given his chin and hopefully taking a decision

Kind of want Li straight up too but will only take it if the price gets a bit better

Ngannou just said he thinks he wins 60% of the time by submission 30% ko 10% dec on the preshow so that's um interesting

Well not the best start from my first chinese small sweat, he looked good until Smolka eventually got him down, Smolka looking pretty relentless and focused which is a good sign he's not done for him

smolka is too good of a grappler to lose to a guy whos been submitted three times on the chinese regional circuit imo. i was a bit nervous that he fought at 125 one month ago, was a little concerned he might be too small to get the other guy down, but he seemed like a small 135'er, too. smolkas also tough as nails. i actually thought he might have gotten knocked out when he was on top early in the second round, which was a scare. obv he gets exposed by people with tdd, but good start.

man these times are brutal, got two hours of sleep, then up to bet/sweat at 3am. don't know how you aussies do anything poker/us time zone related.

Wow that was a super fun back and forth grappling exchange in r2

Down a tiny bit to start but it was just sweat bet sized

No bet for this one, cheering for the Holland finish for Jim looks like he's in way good vs closing lines

@Joe think about what I do to catch redzone every week time wise lol yeah, our sleeping patterns as poker players/sports bettors are not that normal

i might take yan xioanan under 2.5 +305. Kondo just walks forward constantly, and that should leave openings for xiaonan to tee off.

almost took a small sweat on phillips cause they seemed a bit wide, but held off.

Holland gonna finish him here but on what we're seeing Phillips at +4xx prob not too bad given they're brawling a bit

I dont mind how Xiaonan wins as long as she does and she really should since she's better everywhere, parlay filler for me.

nvm phillips has no chance to get into range.

Hoenstly even though Holland is clearly a much better fighter at the straight up odds Phillips was probably the right side

Nice late finish for Jim's ITD bet

Let's go Xiaonan get China their first win of the card