Arnett is super physically weak it seems but no way he's +2xx vs bandenay 2 for 2 that was seriously terrible output from bandenay to basically gas in r3 and give up

Arnett is fade material vs anyone good tho

won 750 back on pantoja, got a decent amount on prazeres at these odds. i can see him getting smushed out for 3 rounds, but fabinski is so so bad on his feet he's in constant danger. if prazeres can resist the clinch/grappling at all, fabinski is in trouble.

lets go you little tree stump

Glad I only had a tiny bit on Fabinski and even though Calvillo won still decently in the green for the card

Just Elkins pending atm undecided on a couple other spots

Took a little Rountree wins in r1 for the next one at +220 - makes sense if he wins it'll be a first round finish more often than not, 5 of his 7 wins are r1 finishes and his opponent has been finished by TKO before. Obv he could lose too but I don't hate the price. Hopefully he comes out throwing bombs and lands one, and if he doesn't he'll probably lose so I think I like it more than the straight up

breakeven if lamas and ponzi win. hugeeeee loss if either lose. such a butt clenching end to the card to need two favorites, esp when one is facing darren elkins.

Yeah fading Darren Elkins on a fav is not a good idea, the only time i've ever done it successfully is Volkanovski who seems legit and with Lamas getting up there in age idk, he should have beaten Elkins 2 years ago but idk about today I think it's closer to a pickem so happy to be on 'Higher Fight IQ than Tattoo IQ' Elkins as a dog there

yuck nearly hedged it with Walker ITD. Oh well. Thought it'd end fast just had the wrong guy. Back to about even for the card. Think I may be slightly in the black slightly from my early prelims bets

Elkins dec for the scoop plz (got Elkins and fight goes distance separately)

Late money seems to like Lamas

Please be wrong like most people who fade Elkins (still can't believe I faded him once successfully)

I wouldn't be shocked if Elkins finishes him or if Lamas gets a KO, but it does go the distance a ton

Hopefully we get lots of Elkins doing Elkins things

i've honestly had decent success on elkins. i don't think lamas is gonna fall apart to pressure and he isn't easy to wrestle. plus elkins has been in so many wars lately at some point hes just gonna break himself.

Liking what i'm seeing so far first 4 mins was close but Elkins took the round in the last minute I think he was edging it anyway on octagon control and neither guy landing significant damage though

10-9 Elkins let's do this

The three guys I can get excited for watching them grind their way to a UD through fight IQ in a fight no one gets that hurt in are Elkins, Cruz and Edgar for some reason

Two more rounds of the same plz

Worth noting Lamas is 2 years older and has been knocked out 2 times more than Elkins btw Joe. You're right about his wars but Lamas has been in them too

Let's see what happens from here

19-19, that leg kick hurt, clear Lamas round obv

Sherdog seems to think it was a 10-8 but i'm not sure since he was never rocked or knocked down. Wouldn't be the worst 10-8 but i'd lean 10-9 didn't see which ruleset they're using

Hoping Elkins leg isn't too badly damaged and he can rally in the third and at least survive but ideally take the third round

i think round one was clear to lamas, no? maybe not clear, but some grappling for elkins he didn't do much with, and damaging strikes for lamas. anyways doesn't really matter, but i've had a few too many red wines and i bombed ponzi, +1000 or -8000 (worry)

I think it was close and could have gone either way on pure damage it would be narrowly but there wasn't enough damage to override the takedown/octagon control/aggression

I realised I ****ed up badly taking fight goes distance instead of o2.5 rounds the vig was pretty low wasn't thinking clearly at the time oh well.

Can't win them all nice win Joe. Slightly in the red for the card now since I got scooped on that fight main cards pretty gross for me.

Taking Ponz for the main, will roughly break even for the card if he wins or lose a couple units if he loses

Lamas was heading to a 29-28 or 29-27 there anyway so good stoppage I just feel dumb for backing the fight goes distance prop instead of the o2.5

Let's go Ponz!

Promising start thought it was over the way Magny was clutching at his eye but if he keeps backing up into the cage like that Ponz is gonna find his chin and put him out cold eventually

10-9 Ponz, borderline 10-8

Would have said def a 10-9 until that flurry at the end might still be a 10-9 but could be a 10-8 about the same as Lamas r2 vs Elkins imo, actually in hindsight i'm pretty sure that was a 10-8 Lamas.

Depends how ****ed Magny's eye is whether this is over or Ponz just a big fav

Wow that's bad luck to get his eye cut like that

Hopefully Ponz can keep going Magny's eye ****ed too again now

Magny limping now too those are some brutal leg kicks for WW, have we ever seen 3 leg kick knockdowns in a round at WW before this?

Well it's anywhere from 20-18 to 20-16 Ponz so far so that's promising just gotta get his eye patched up, back him into the cage and alternate between the jab and the leg kicks

Quite impressed with how Ponz is dealing with a much rangier guy on the feet

Just throw more leg kicks and it's over

I can't imagine how stressful this would have been for o2.5 rounds backers lol

30-27 to 30-25 range so far, Ponz should reduce power slightly to conserve cardio and throw more leg kicks but otherwise the gameplan's flawless so far

Magny's corner probably should have thrown in the towel after he struggled to stand from that last leg kick would have saved his chin from the KO

Great performance from Ponz and i'm ready to see him take on the elite strikers of the division. Wonderboy or Till maybe? Lawler would work too but he's booked. If he can win one impressively against one of WB/Till/RDA he's earned a title shot

Ended up winning like 1k for the card, was up like 6k early but got pretty wrecked on the Elkins fight being a Lamas finish and needed the main win to finish up for the card.

Nice save on your card Joe P

Won 1k tonight but avoided a huggggge loss. Not the way to do it. Really surprised Ferreira could get takedowns so easy but not do anything with the positions.

The Larkin fight vs magny was the key one for me in handicapping the main. Magny really struggles vs good kickboxers with leg kicks. his pawing jab is such a leak for a 6'3 guy.

Does anyone have a list that book Asian/Japanese Kickboxing/MT/MMA promotions?

Thinking Rise/Rizin, and the like... Been getting interested in it, and that could peak my interest, especially over NYE...

Thanks!

Magny hasn't improved much in the past 3 years. His big weakness is that just that... he's weak. He either can't take down the stronger guys in the division which forces him to stand up. He doesn't know how to flick his jab and circle off... instead he gets pushed back to the cage. From there he needs a big right to back the opponent off and get respect... but he doesn't have the power and finds himself getting pinned.

Him moving to 185 should help his speed against bigger guys to flick and move but the punching power/lack of wrestling offense will plague him.

Lots of heart and a good human being so I wish the best for him.