yes, it's today. anyone have an idea in the main event?

welp, the odds are gone lol. joke.

was gonna take couture -351 and nemkov +235

Bellator 209 prelims already started, small main card action for me. Tape delay in 2018 is nonsense, Scott Coker!


Bellator 209 Risk $544.50

Emmanuel Sanchez (+178) vs Patricio Freire ~$60.50 for ~$107.69
Ryan Couture (-208) vs Haim Gozali ~$225.50 for ~$108.41
Phil Davis/Vadim Nemkov Over 2½ ~$132.00 for ~$109.09
Cindy Dandois/Olga Rubin Over 1½ ~$126.50 for ~$110.00

which books were you getting cindy dandois odds?

Curse you people!!! 6 months ago I'd have fired my computer at Max -200 and people like you are making me gun shy at -135 or so... God I hate listening to sound reasoning that makes me go hmm...wait that could happen etc.

I still like Max I think... but with the concussions and how big Ortega looked in an interview it's making me think that this is a very dangerous matchup and Max has really only looked good against strikers. Cub/Pettis come to mind.
Against Connor he was taken down... sure he was 21 and green... but Connor isn't a world beater at TD's by any stretch.

im gonna take max at current odds.

ortega has literally 1 takedown in his ufc career. plus max is super tall, not like if he gets him on the fence he can just easily grab his neck like cub.

Sometimes, a few of the lesser Euro books have more lines than the major sportsbooks do for certain cards, like BetAtHome and some others.

Max will be one of my 5 biggest bets of the year if there are no weight cut or injury or concussion symptom issues etc

Ortega can only win by sub or fluke ko he has power but max is bigger than Frankie and rangier and Ortega won't tower over him the same way. Ortega's striking technique is horrendous and he can't eat naxs volume punches despite his good chin forever.

Ortega who a lot of us forget us a likely steroid cheat is going to get beaten down by max for the duration of the fight his only chance is a sub and max isn't going to give him his neck standing and has decent movement and Ortega dies not have NCAA level wrestling. Yeah oretga will get his neck or back maybe 1 in 4 times standing but if he doesn't max is like -800 at least to win the fight standing Ortega has a weak punchers chance at best unless the concussion issues ruined max he's never shown a weak chin and people acting like Ortega is a pickem on the feet vs max are ****ing delusional he's outstruck Stephens Cub Aldo twice Pettis etc and hung with grapplers like Oliveira without getting subbed. Ortega caught moicano and Edgar and cub in fights he was losing until the finish and the rest were vs lower level guys and again close fights or he was losing until r3 finishes etc

If max is the sane max who fought Aldo he is -400 and ud make him -250 even with the question marks over his layoff and concussion issue

Ortega is the most overrated fighter in the UFC bar none. He has sick killer instinct good offensive subs and power but no striking technique and no NCAA wrestling or judo to get the fight to the national. Max also has endless cardio and won't gas in r3 or whatever letting irtega get an easy sub

Max will win by r2-4 tko most of the time I may play sone r3-4 tko props or if it goes the distance max wins 50-45 to 50-43 or so.

If Ortega wins it'll be a submission in the first 3 rounds almost always past r3 he will gave taken tons more damage than he has from anyone else previously.

If anyone wants to lay odds Ortega loses 2 of his next 5 fights at evens I'll fade him all day. He's a great fighter but he is way too flawed to be close to a pickem vs max and even if he catches max in a fluke sub I will fade him until he loses

If he dominates max handily I'll eat my words but he doesn't dominate anyone he could easily be like 3-3 in his last 6 instead of undefeated. I'll give him his killer instinct is probably second only to romero but he is a seriously flawed fighter

Would take moicano over him in a rematch at anything above +100 too and would back Aldo against him too I think Aldo decisions him and TBH I think stephens sleeps him half the time too. I think Mendes and volkanovski might beat Ortega over half the time too and fw Conor would have slept him most of the time in re as well.

Max got this unless he's suddenly out of his prime. Disclaimer I do dislike Ortega but I also think he is vastly overhyped

People are acting like max isn't the fw goat here and that Ortega's been dominating his fights. Finishing sure but he's won less than half of the rounds in his last 5 fights or so combined. Max hasn't been finished since he was a teenager and thrown to the wolves vs poirier, hell he hasn't lost since other to Conor as the bermudez decision was a joke

I think Ortega is a fighter who is never worse than +300 due to his offensive subs and punchers chance but max is basically that worst case scenario and I also think he's never better than -2xx vs any top 5 fighter due to his striking deficiencies lake of wrestling and the fact that means he has to finish fights to win them against anyone who throws volume and all of the fw contenders beat him volume wise on the feet

Loaded botelho -150 apparently awful cut for calvillo and big steam I'm out ATM but will watch weigh in later

also i need max to win so i can bomb frankie vs max at 250+

congrats, you guys crushed the prazeres line movement, hopefully it keeps going so i can get prazeres at evens or better. i'm really big on aldana average of even, so that's good wish i started scouting fights earlier though. i also took narimani pretty big at -350. Seems like a mirror image of his last fight vs khalid taha. 135-er with fast hands moving up to take a short notice fight. dos santos has a little better jitz i'm sure but I don't think it'll really matter. Dos Santos has pretty awful tdd.

Holloway will likely never weigh in again at 145. The only way I would book that fight before weigh in is if I still liked Max laying a price after he missed weight and had to forfeit purse in a non title fight... which I don’t.

This is all shenanigans... Max will try to make weight and won’t get close, then say he’s injured to avoid the embarrassment of missing weight again. They’ll cancel and his next fight will be at 155. Ortega will then fight for the vacated belt.

Once a 6’ tall man turns 25 it’s just not really doable to train MMA and also weigh 145lbs. Especially after missing weight at 155. I hope I’m wrong, I sure want to see this fight.

Invicta FC 32 Risk $400.00

Viviane Pereira (+105) vs Mizuki Inoue $200.00 for $210.00
Ashley Cummins (+136) vs Jessica Delboni $200.00 for $272.00

Will chope made 145 lol and he's like 6 foot 4
I'm def waiting for weigh ins though for max

Got some Elkins +165 because it's Elkins as a dog and some fabinski +135 purely on line movement

Tempted to back Ponz if he keeps climbing and I can get 1.5.

Took some Staropoli again just because it's an arb vs pinny at +120. It's on 365 so might sell it if i'm not beating Pin line decently when fight starts given the overall trends been from Staropoli being a fav all the way into a pickem type fight. Overall steam's gone the other way but neither guy has won against a UFC caliber fighter ever, so hopefully the hometown guy can get it done at least i'll have hometown judging if it's a decision although lines suggest a finish either way - I do think the hometown advantage might be significant since both guys aren't really UFC level. Have never seen him fight but apparently has some weaknesses against wrestling but is a powerful striker, but hopefully Aldana just stands in front of him and gets wrecked. Staropoli did look like he had a slight size advantage at weigh in although Aldana has a lower center of gravity but from memory Aldana isn't a wrestler

I think if Ponz beats Magny it'll probably be a fast KO and I think that's the most likely outcome. Magny could grind him out but odds seem about right to be in Argentina with Ponz a moderate fav

Max has great TD defense, and Ortega likes to stand and bang too much. I like Max if he's healthy.

i would definitely sell these if you can... this guy looks really bad against guys who don't have winning records on the bolivian regional scene. His defense is non-existent. From what I saw from Aldana on his last fight against Kenan Song, it should be more than enough to win. Leg kicks alone should do a lot of damage. I mean clearly both these guys suck so nothing is certain, but the current price seems really bad.

UFN 141 Risk $6,459.68

Neil Magny (+250) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio $100.00 for $250.00
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins in round 1 (+225) $75.00 for $168.75
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins in round 2 (+475) $30.00 for $142.50
Neil Magny wins in round 4 (+2600) $15.00 for $390.00
Neil Magny wins in round 5 (+3300) $15.00 for $495.00
Neil Magny/Santiago Ponzinibbio Over 2½ (+120) $100.00 for $120.00

Ricardo Lamas (-160) vs Darren Elkins $160.00 for $100.00
Ricardo Lamas (-165) vs Darren Elkins $165.00 for $100.00
Ricardo Lamas (-195) vs Darren Elkins $195.00 for $100.00
Ricardo Lamas wins inside distance (+235) $40.00 for $94.00
Ricardo Lamas/Darren Elkins Over 2½ (-250) $187.50 for $75.00
Ricardo Lamas/Darren Elkins Draw (+7500) $15.00 for $1,125.00

Khalil Rountree/Johnny Walker Under 1½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00
Khalil Rountree/Johnny Walker Under 1½ (-127) $127.00 for $100.00
Khalil Rountree/Johnny Walker Under 1½ (-145) $145.00 for $100.00

Cezar Ferreira (-165) vs Ian Heinisch $165.00 for $100.00
Cezar Ferreira (-175) vs Ian Heinisch $175.00 for $100.00
Cezar Ferreira (-175) vs Ian Heinisch $175.00 for $100.00
Cezar Ferreira (-189) vs Ian Heinisch $188.68 for $100.00
Ian Heinisch wins in round 1 (+500) $40.00 for $200.00
Ian Heinisch wins by TKO/KO (+260) $50.00 for $130.00
Cezar Ferreira wins in round 2 (+550) $15.00 for $82.50
Cezar Ferreira wins in round 2 (+450) $15.00 for $67.50
Cezar Ferreira wins in round 3 (+1150) $15.00 for $172.50
Cezar Ferreira wins in round 3 (+950) $15.00 for $142.50
Cezar Ferreira wins by 3 round decision (+364) $75.00 for $273.00

Marlon Vera/Guido Cannetti Over 2½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Poliana Botelho (-120) vs Cynthia Calvillo $480.00 for $400.00
Poliana Botelho (-128) vs Cynthia Calvillo ~$766.50 for ~$598.83
Poliana Botelho wins inside distance (+305) $50.00 for $152.50
Poliana Botelho wins inside distance (+225) $25.00 for $56.25
Poliana Botelho wins by TKO/KO (+260) $50.00 for $130.00
Poliana Botelho wins in round 2 (+670) $20.00 for $134.00
Poliana Botelho wins in round 3 (+1100) $15.00 for $165.00
Cynthia Calvillo wins by submission (+400) $75.00 for $300.00
Poliana Botelho/Cynthia Calvillo Under 2½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00
Poliana Botelho/Cynthia Calvillo Under 2½ (+125) $100.00 for $125.00
Poliana Botelho/Cynthia Calvillo Under 2½ (+125) $100.00 for $125.00

Bartosz Fabinski (+200) vs Michel Prazeres $200.00 for $400.00
Bartosz Fabinski (+200) vs Michel Prazeres $200.00 for $400.00
Bartosz Fabinski wins by 3 round decision (+255) $50.00 for $127.50

Ulka Sasaki (+315) vs Alexandre Pantoja $200.00 for $630.00
Ulka Sasaki wins by submission(+600) $40.00 for $240.00
Ulka Sasaki/Alexandre Pantoja Under 2½ (+110) $100.00 for $110.00

Austin Arnett (+210) vs Humberto Bandenay $200.00 for $420.00
Austin Arnett wins by submission (+735) $35.00 for $257.25
Austin Arnett/Humberto Bandenay Under 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Hector Aldana (+175) vs Laureano Staropoli $200.00 for $350.00
Hector Aldana (+175) vs Laureano Staropoli $200.00 for $350.00
Hector Aldana wins inside distance (+175) $25.00 for $43.75
Hector Aldana wins by TKO/KO (+230) $50.00 for $115.00
Hector Aldana/Laureano Staropoli Under 1½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00
Hector Aldana/Laureano Staropoli Under 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Devin Powell/Jesus Pinedo Under 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Devin Powell/Jesus Pinedo Under 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Nad Narimani wins by 3 round decision (+157) vs Anderson Dos Santos $50.00 for $78.50
Nad Narimani wins by 3 round decision (+125) vs Anderson Dos Santos $75.00 for $93.75

Zabit tho

have powell kinda big here +210, both these guys are totally awful but powell is tough as ****. Won a bit on narimani, but not as safe as i thought it'd be.


narimani -360
powell +210
Aldana ~+100
Prazeres -130
cannetti +260
ferreira -180
lamas -165
ponzinibbio -195

thats my card, tons of bets.

god i hope powell gets cut. what an absolute idiot. lost two rounds just chilling on his back. awful reffing too. both these guys aren't even close to ufc level.

Well down 4000 pretty quickly not ideal

Nice start for me staropoli fought smartish and again aldana didn't really try to take him down which from what I've read was his biggest weakness figured he had more room to improve being 25 vs 30 too I have no idea how aldana has so few fights for his age. Aldana is super bad and throws low volume staropoli won't beat any wrestlers or good fighters but he fought well for a low level guy today. Looked like a -175 fav or so on what we saw imo he has defensive holes but he just throws more volume and aldana didn't try to grapple

On arnett small +225 up next just backing the dog in a low level fight and because market leans that way at price I got

Added on a bunch more Elkins too at +155 to +167 mixture