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Old 11-06-2018, 02:35 PM   #46801
Joe Pulaski
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Re: MMA Thread

Dc and Cannonier are two guys with probably a similar build and totally different lifestyle choices. I'd have to imagine DC could be a shredded MW if he really wanted to. He was still pudgy AF making 205. Not that it makes any sense for him to do that, just funny how theres lot of different paths to success. Anyways this week I'm allin on Yair, and GDR and Perry look really good to me.
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Old 11-07-2018, 03:05 AM   #46802
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Re: MMA Thread

Volkanovski vs Mendes added to 232

Time to find out whether Australia has another title contender. Great matchup, Mendes against one of the division's top prospects, and Volkanovski gets to take on a guy who had a close fight for the title and prove he's a legit contender

FW is so stacked with up and coming prospects who could fight for the belt one day, Magomedsharipov, Volkanovski, Bektic, Moicano, Ortega obviously, even Rodriguez as well.
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Old 11-07-2018, 07:27 AM   #46803
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by WateryBoil View Post
regardless if jones was on roids or not, roids 100% does not help you land a head kick KO....

clean or not the exact same thing happens to DC if jones kicks him.

to say he wouldnt beat DC at 205 is laughable tbh. DC is just WAY better at heavyweight and looks like a world beater. he loses massive amounts of power at 205.
Yeah you are right, roids don't help with power, athleticism, endurance, heck they are called performance enhancement drugs but they really don't enhance ****....

Of course roids help you land the kick.

You can train longer and harder on roids.

Therefore you are sharper than you should be in the cage, it's highly unlikely that kick lands as Jones won't be as strong as he is, he won't be as fast either, these are things why he lands the kick, and he gains those by using roids to get extra advantage over his opponents.

Without roids he is slower and has less power, while I agree a "clean" head kick is still going to hurt and perhaps even knock DC out, the point I'm making is that there's a good chance it does not land just because DC will be the better stronger athlete and he might see Jones kicks coming, because he's much slower, more fatigued etc etc.

Last edited by tikmassy; 11-07-2018 at 07:49 AM.
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Old 11-07-2018, 07:59 AM   #46804
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Re: MMA Thread

Yeah it's absurd to say we know Jones would have won that fight clean it was close for multiple rounds before the finish and DC

For what its worth I had a bet on Jones ITD that fight but probably won't take that in a third fight if it happens if I think Jones is clean - i'll probably be backing Gustafsson at +2xx against him just because I think Gus was clean in their last fight and I don't think Jon was, and while he might still be roiding now, he has to know it's effectively a lifetime ban if he pops for roids a third time at the very least he'll get 4 years surely and that would take him out of his prime.

I personally think Jones was clean for the OSP fight, his awful performance scared him and he's been on roids for the rest of his UFC fights.
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Old 11-07-2018, 09:32 AM   #46805
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Yeah it's absurd to say we know Jones would have won that fight clean it was close for multiple rounds before the finish and DC

For what its worth I had a bet on Jones ITD that fight but probably won't take that in a third fight if it happens if I think Jones is clean - i'll probably be backing Gustafsson at +2xx against him just because I think Gus was clean in their last fight and I don't think Jon was, and while he might still be roiding now, he has to know it's effectively a lifetime ban if he pops for roids a third time at the very least he'll get 4 years surely and that would take him out of his prime.

I personally think Jones was clean for the OSP fight, his awful performance scared him and he's been on roids for the rest of his UFC fights.
I agree 100% with all of this.

The biggest benefit of Roids s it allows you to heal your muscles faster so you can workout for longer sessions.
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:59 AM   #46806
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Re: MMA Thread

Big Trizano steam, I hope Pena isn't hurt or something he was my favourite guy on the TUF season and this is the finale it deserved

No bets for me so far, considered Yair but didn't fire and considered Pena but not gonna fade this type of steam probably
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:42 PM   #46807
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Re: MMA Thread

i got yair +118, almost added at +125, will still prob add some at current. taking devontae smith; at minimum he's gonna jab and leg kick the super hittable erosa. A lot of equity for a rd 1 ko. Two different classes of athletes. Taking Pena and Perry. I think some late money might come in on cowboy though, so holding off on that til fight time. Took very small on Gunther. Ramos had a fairly close fight with chris gruetzmacher becuase of his suspect gas tank. Don't think he can ever be -1100+.
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:42 PM   #46808
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm on Yair think its a pretty decent match up for him.
Got £200 at 2.15

Also got 100% acca boost which I stuck on Yair/Triano/Breese
£20 at 19.61 just to give a bit more added interest in the card.

Not much I like on this card or next weeks card at first glance.

Will be loading up on Tito pretty soon as I do think he is probably a 1.2 shot here.
Also like Ngannou at 3.0, obviously he looked terrible in his last fight but I am not willing to throw him in the Todd Duffee, Sokjodou hype job category yet.
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Old 11-09-2018, 04:27 PM   #46809
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Re: MMA Thread

How many more times will Cerrone have to get smashed before he goes to Bellator?
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Old 11-09-2018, 08:29 PM   #46810
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Yeah it's absurd to say we know Jones would have won that fight clean it was close for multiple rounds before the finish and DC

For what its worth I had a bet on Jones ITD that fight but probably won't take that in a third fight if it happens if I think Jones is clean - i'll probably be backing Gustafsson at +2xx against him just because I think Gus was clean in their last fight and I don't think Jon was, and while he might still be roiding now, he has to know it's effectively a lifetime ban if he pops for roids a third time at the very least he'll get 4 years surely and that would take him out of his prime.

I personally think Jones was clean for the OSP fight, his awful performance scared him and he's been on roids for the rest of his UFC fights.
It wouldn't shock me if he was on them. Esp since he's likely got into it through his brothers and they got that good NFL ****. JBJ personality is narcissistic and reckless so I see him being willing to cheat in anyways possible. I'd be surprised if he hasn't been on a program for quite awhile esp given his lack of history with injuries. A lot of his drop-offs in certain fights could be due to all his partying and recreational drug consumption.

I'd expect multiple accidental eye pokes in the Gus fight lol.
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Old 11-10-2018, 06:29 PM   #46811
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Re: MMA Thread

D.Cerrone vs M.Perry
Fight Result. Method (5 way):
Perry, Mike To Win. KO, TKO, Disqualification or Submission
Stake: 125.00 Potential returns: 240.00

Almost evens on Perry who is way too much for Cerrone who is appearing to be aging, Perry is going to knock him out, Cerrone will tap Perrys legs and nice movement but you have a rd1 volcano vs a warm up dude and even if Cerrone was warmed up, not sure he can hang with Perry, soon as Perry gets his range he is going to connect, expecting to see a brutal left hook.

Perry is impressive, there is not really a question about that, cerrone is going to need to get some luck to win here or last 3 no?
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Old 11-10-2018, 07:55 PM   #46812
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Re: MMA Thread

UFN 139 Risk $5,576.00

Chan Sung Jung (+105) vs Yair Rodriguez $100.00 for $105.00
Chan Sung Jung wins inside distance (+161) $75.00 for $120.75
Chan Sung Jung/Yair Rodriguez Over 2½ (+102) $100.00 for $102.00
Chan Sung Jung wins in round 3 (+1000) $15.00 for $150.00
Chan Sung Jung wins in round 4 (+1600) $15.00 for $240.00
Chan Sung Jung wins in round 5 (+2000) $15.00 for $300.00

Donald Cerrone/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-130) $130.00 for $100.00

Germaine de Randamie (-175) vs Raquel Pennington $175.00 for $100.00
Germaine de Randamie (-175) vs Raquel Pennington $350.00 for $200.00
Germaine de Randamie (-180) vs Raquel Pennington $900.00 for $500.00
Germaine de Randamie (-185) vs Raquel Pennington $370.00 for $200.00
Germaine de Randamie -3½ points (+125) $125.00 for $156.25
Germaine de Randamie wins by TKO/KO (+350) $100.00 for $350.00
Germaine de Randamie wins in round 2 (+850) $25.00 for $212.50
Germaine de Randamie wins in round 3 (+1550) $15.00 for $232.50
Germaine de Randamie wins in round 3 (+1450) $25.00 for $362.50
Germaine de Randamie/Raquel Pennington Under 2½ (+248) $100.00 for $248.00

Beneil Dariush (-150) vs Thiago Moises $300.00 for $200.00

Maycee Barber (-370) vs Hannah Cifers $370.00 for $100.00
Maycee Barber (-370) vs Hannah Cifers $555.00 for $150.00
Maycee Barber wins inside distance (+122) $75.00 for $91.50
Maycee Barber wins by TKO/KO (+353) $35.00 for $123.55
Maycee Barber/Hannah Cifers Under 2½ (+119) $100.00 for $119.00

Mike Trizano/Luis Pena Over 2½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00

Ashley Yoder (-140) vs Amanda Cooper $280.00 for $200.00
Ashley Yoder (-140) vs Amanda Cooper $280.00 for $200.00
Ashley Yoder wins by submission (+301) $35.00 for $105.35

Bobby Moffett (-110) vs Chas Skelly $220.00 for $200.00

Davi Ramos wins in round 2 (+450) vs John Gunther $25.00 for $112.50
Davi Ramos/John Gunther Under 1½ (-215) $86.00 for $40.00

Devonte Smith/Julian Erosa Under 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Eric Shelton (-130) vs Joseph Morales $260.00 for $200.00

Mark De La Rosa wins by submission (+165) $40.00 for $66.00
Mark De La Rosa/Joby Sanchez Under 2½ (+108) $75.00 for $81.00
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Old 11-11-2018, 02:30 AM   #46813
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Re: MMA Thread

What an ending to the main. That was amazing!
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Old 11-11-2018, 03:00 AM   #46814
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm watching the post-fight show. Too pumped to go to bed for a while. Amazing upward elbow KO by Yair at 4:59 of round 5. I live bet Korean Zombie twice at +100 in rounds 3 & 4, so somewhat of a flukey ending, but still huge card for me, over $2,232 in profit.
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Old 11-12-2018, 03:34 AM   #46815
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Re: MMA Thread

I don't often post much analysis in advance of posting my plays, but since I wrote this up:

Biggest bet on the card for me is Poliana Botelho at -120 and -128 over Cynthia Calvillo. Poliana's striking is fearsome, she is taller than Calvillo, plus she has never been submitted, which is Cynthia's most likely method of finish and perhaps even victory. Poliana was also able to stuff Pearl Gonzalez's takedown attempts and win a decision and Pearl is more physical than Cynthia. Big bet for me.

I also like a lot of underdogs on this card. Got Hector Aldana at +175 vs Laureano Starapoli. Aldans has TUF & UFC experience, and has knockout power vs his opponent's striking against lesser opponents
on the South American regional scene. Line should be reversed or at least closer to even at very worst. Also like former middleweight Bartosz Fabinski vs former lightweight Michel Prazeres in this welterweight bout. I know "Trator" has been able to find ways to win in the UFC, but the physical Fabinski will be about six inches taller and has good cardio to implement a grinding game plan. Prazeres will not have a wrestling or grappling advantage as he often does against other opponents, and even though he was able to beat a bigger man in Zak Cummings most recently by split decision I believe Fabinski at 2 to 1 is way off. Also made a smaller bet on Ulka Sasaki at +315 vs Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja is very good, but Sasaki has a huge height and reach advantage and if he has tightened up his submission defense and kept improving his striking at Serra-Longo, he has the tools to lock in a sub himself with his long limbs or keep it more competitive than expected for a decision vs the 5'5" Pantoja. I also expect that at 5'10" he has the frame to bulk up to bantamweight if need be to keep a roster slot in the UFC with a win. Also looking at Austin Arnett and Guido Cannetti as underdogs.
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Old 11-12-2018, 10:38 AM   #46816
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
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How many more times will Cerrone have to get smashed before he goes to Bellator?
I had a little Crow sandwich for dinner last night. Not bad.
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Old 11-12-2018, 04:26 PM   #46817
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by foatie View Post
I had a little Crow sandwich for dinner last night. Not bad.
Happens to the best of us. It feels like when I don't post my picks I do better, but maybe that's just me being biased.

Anyways, if you guys have any leans on UFC Fight Night 140 lmk. I'm on Darren Elkins because he's Darren Elkins (smart grinder who's tough as nails) but don't have any other bets. Part of me wants to bet Neil Magny at +270 but part of me feels like it'd just be lighting money on fire. Might try to watch some tape on that later this week if time permits.
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Old 11-12-2018, 04:27 PM   #46818
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimGunn View Post
I don't often post much analysis in advance of posting my plays, but since I wrote this up:

Biggest bet on the card for me is Poliana Botelho at -120 and -128 over Cynthia Calvillo. Poliana's striking is fearsome, she is taller than Calvillo, plus she has never been submitted, which is Cynthia's most likely method of finish and perhaps even victory. Poliana was also able to stuff Pearl Gonzalez's takedown attempts and win a decision and Pearl is more physical than Cynthia. Big bet for me.

I also like a lot of underdogs on this card. Got Hector Aldana at +175 vs Laureano Starapoli. Aldans has TUF & UFC experience, and has knockout power vs his opponent's striking against lesser opponents
on the South American regional scene. Line should be reversed or at least closer to even at very worst. Also like former middleweight Bartosz Fabinski vs former lightweight Michel Prazeres in this welterweight bout. I know "Trator" has been able to find ways to win in the UFC, but the physical Fabinski will be about six inches taller and has good cardio to implement a grinding game plan. Prazeres will not have a wrestling or grappling advantage as he often does against other opponents, and even though he was able to beat a bigger man in Zak Cummings most recently by split decision I believe Fabinski at 2 to 1 is way off. Also made a smaller bet on Ulka Sasaki at +315 vs Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja is very good, but Sasaki has a huge height and reach advantage and if he has tightened up his submission defense and kept improving his striking at Serra-Longo, he has the tools to lock in a sub himself with his long limbs or keep it more competitive than expected for a decision vs the 5'5" Pantoja. I also expect that at 5'10" he has the frame to bulk up to bantamweight if need be to keep a roster slot in the UFC with a win. Also looking at Austin Arnett and Guido Cannetti as underdogs.
Well, this gives me some material to work with, lol. Thanks for posting that Jim.
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Old 11-12-2018, 05:09 PM   #46819
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Re: MMA Thread

I also have about 12u on Tito between -200 and -225 or so. If Chuck happens to pull off a miracle near 49 years old after eight years in retirement and multiple knockout losses then I'll take my loss, but I can't help but think there is great value on this line.
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Old 11-12-2018, 11:00 PM   #46820
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Re: MMA Thread

The major concerns there are a fix (Shamrock vs Kimbo anyone?) and a mental block of some sort by Tito given he's never beaten Chuck and he's his greatest rival and all that. Both are unlikely to affect the fight though especially the former.

Otherwise i'd be all over Tito too, although offensively Chuck being a glass cannon might still be enough unless Tito can land one on him or take him down quickly. Tito should win though all things considered since there's a huge gap between early 40s and late 40s unless you're Randy Couture and Chuck's chin is gone.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 11-12-2018 at 11:19 PM.
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Old 11-13-2018, 03:43 PM   #46821
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimGunn View Post
I don't often post much analysis in advance of posting my plays, but since I wrote this up:

Biggest bet on the card for me is Poliana Botelho at -120 and -128 over Cynthia Calvillo. Poliana's striking is fearsome, she is taller than Calvillo, plus she has never been submitted, which is Cynthia's most likely method of finish and perhaps even victory. Poliana was also able to stuff Pearl Gonzalez's takedown attempts and win a decision and Pearl is more physical than Cynthia. Big bet for me.

I also like a lot of underdogs on this card. Got Hector Aldana at +175 vs Laureano Starapoli. Aldans has TUF & UFC experience, and has knockout power vs his opponent's striking against lesser opponents
on the South American regional scene. Line should be reversed or at least closer to even at very worst. Also like former middleweight Bartosz Fabinski vs former lightweight Michel Prazeres in this welterweight bout. I know "Trator" has been able to find ways to win in the UFC, but the physical Fabinski will be about six inches taller and has good cardio to implement a grinding game plan. Prazeres will not have a wrestling or grappling advantage as he often does against other opponents, and even though he was able to beat a bigger man in Zak Cummings most recently by split decision I believe Fabinski at 2 to 1 is way off. Also made a smaller bet on Ulka Sasaki at +315 vs Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja is very good, but Sasaki has a huge height and reach advantage and if he has tightened up his submission defense and kept improving his striking at Serra-Longo, he has the tools to lock in a sub himself with his long limbs or keep it more competitive than expected for a decision vs the 5'5" Pantoja. I also expect that at 5'10" he has the frame to bulk up to bantamweight if need be to keep a roster slot in the UFC with a win. Also looking at Austin Arnett and Guido Cannetti as underdogs.
Thanks for this, got on both of these at 2.9 and 2.62.
Steam has already come in on both Aldana now 2.25 at Pinnacle.
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Old 11-13-2018, 09:32 PM   #46822
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Re: MMA Thread

I’m not so sure about fabinski. He’s faced three guys who can’t wrestle at all and every single second the fight has been on the feet he’s looked so insanely vulnerable. I can see how he’s gonna have some success in the clinch and maybe working for takedowns as well, but this is the best grappler (albeit undersized) that he’s faced yet. He’s also constantly leaving his neck super vulnerable when he dives in for a double along the cage. His cardio looks to be suspect too. I’m not saying I’m betting prazeres but I don’t think this is the straightforward of a great spot for fabinski as you say.

Scouted aldana fight though too. Wholeheartedly agree with you there
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Old 11-14-2018, 03:28 PM   #46823
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Re: MMA Thread

Does anybody particularly like Holloway vs Ortega? The more I think about it the more I think this should be a relatively easy win for Brian Ortega, he just has way more margin for error. In order for Holloway to win he'd have to stick and move for 5 rounds basically (and Ortega's striking is hugely underrated, although I do expect Holloway to have an advantage there) and avoid the clinch and ground at all costs.

For Ortega to win, he'd basically just have to, you know, grab him? lol. It just seems like Ortega has so much more room for error, not to mention all of the red flags surrounding Holloway's health. Plus Ortega is extremely smart and very coachable.

Holloway is an elite striker and I'd take him over just about anyone in that division with a striking based approach (except for maybe Zabit), but the more I think about it I just don't like this match up for him.
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Old 11-15-2018, 11:40 AM   #46824
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Re: MMA Thread

Havent seen much of Max ground game, but Conor did dominate him on the ground but that was when max was 21 yrs old. Conor isnt known for his ground game but I guess hes not terrible on the ground and Max was very inexperienced back then, so not so sure if we can even take this into account.

I do like Ortega too though, his striking is good enough and like you said if he grabs you, it's likely game over.He can take a punch too, so its not like Max will just KO him either, so what about reach?
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Old 11-15-2018, 01:18 PM   #46825
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Re: MMA Thread

im so confused, is bellator 209 today? tapology has 4 prelims completely and betting markets seem big for bellator one day out.
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