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11-03-2018 , 11:51 PM
the money for DC sub in 3rd/4th seems good i think ill go fer it
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11-03-2018 , 11:53 PM
Jacare's just asking to be knocked out in some of these exchanges depends if Weidman has the cardio - close r2, Jacare brought it to him a lot but it feels like Weidman probably outlanded him no idea how to score r2. I think my TKO bet prob about breakeven on what we've seen so far but shoulda gone Weidman straight up or tko+dec combo too
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11-03-2018 , 11:57 PM
wtf what a weeeirrdd tko, didnt think jacare was coming back.
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11-03-2018 , 11:57 PM
Wow sick comeback by Jacare guess i'm glad I didn't take Weidman straight up but it does feel like he's a small fav in the fight

Sort of feel sorry for Weidman he keeps losing fights he's ahead on the cards or right in it late. Pretty good fight.
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11-03-2018 , 11:58 PM
wow it was right on the temple, crazy how some shots that dont look bad at all can just do that
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11-04-2018 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WateryBoil
wtf what a weeeirrdd tko, didnt think jacare was coming back.
I actually bet Jacare after r2 at +575 as I thought there was a chance 2 judges gave r2 to Jacare and he might win via decision. Didn't expect the KO though by any stretch.

Bet Weidman r3 tko at +1100, r3 sub at +5000
Bet Jacare r3 sub at +2500 and ..... meh That sucks.

Great fight and Weidman looked great throughout the fight. And so did Jacare as I figured his stamina would fade big time but it didn't. Good effort by both guys.
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11-04-2018 , 12:12 AM
o1 round -149, o1.5 rounds +125, and small on DC sub r2 +875 r3 +1700 r4 +2500

Let's do it. Be a tough son of a ***** Lewis.
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11-04-2018 , 12:30 AM
Best outcome. Now I can whine about 0-6 and my boy DC gets the win.
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11-04-2018 , 12:33 AM
Oh man SO close to winning 11k on the fight up 1kish because I had more o1.5 than o1

About even for the card with the Weidman miss but would have scooped HUGE if Lewis had held on for a few more seconds

Obv DC -3xx was a steal in hindsight

I liked DC sub +185 too but preferred the middle rounds props since I think it's mostly a r2-4 sub when he wins by sub, r1 he's probably conservative with position and sub attempts etc pity I didn't take that one too, but oh well

Feels like I had the fight about right just a pity Lewis was more careless giving his back constantly than I expected, he could have easily got subbed in r1 there too, but pretty unlucky to not concede a takedown for that long in r2 and then for it not to go o1.5 by 15 secs

Last edited by SwoopAE; 11-04-2018 at 12:40 AM.
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11-04-2018 , 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
o1 round -149, o1.5 rounds +125, and small on DC sub r2 +875 r3 +1700 r4 +2500

Let's do it. Be a tough son of a ***** Lewis.
Congratz on this. I in a drunken state was inadvertently loading up on r3 as the odds were better but got in a few in r2.

-360 itd was the bet... as Lewis truly only had a punchers chance.
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11-04-2018 , 12:44 AM
good night for me, if chris hadn't gotten finished would have been rly awesome.

hope everyone took dc when he got to like -380. bader vs mitrione should have shown us the blueprint.
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11-04-2018 , 12:52 AM
To be honest DC sub was the bet in general it's clear Lewis had no regards about giving his back at all so a sub's much more likely than a GnP tko stoppage

I'm pretty annoyed that I didn't profit a ton on the main event, would have been a big win for the card if Lewis held on a few more seconds
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11-04-2018 , 06:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RB87
Also on Brunson agree that its a step up for Adesanya.

Got £50 on Brunson at 4.0
£50 on Moraes at 3.8
£100 on Jacare at 2.83

From my own analysis I like Brunson and Jacare. Was leaning towards betting on Moraes and then money came in on him so fired a bet when I saw he was shortening.
Decent night for me with Moraes and Jacare cashing. Adesanya looks like the real deal shrugged off Brunson's wrestling with relative ease. Be interesting to see who he fights next.
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11-04-2018 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
To be honest DC sub was the bet in general it's clear Lewis had no regards about giving his back at all so a sub's much more likely than a GnP tko stoppage

I'm pretty annoyed that I didn't profit a ton on the main event, would have been a big win for the card if Lewis held on a few more seconds
i wanted 3rd round sub so bad lol would have made bank too

i failed tho got nothing T.T
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11-04-2018 , 05:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Malachii
Have a lot of action on this card, and it's a big underdog card for me. Have bets on Matt Frevola +260, Karl Roberson at -170 (benefits of betting opening lines ) Jacare at +155, The Black Beast +525 (smaller bet there has to be some value there), and a big bet on Brunson at average price of +242.

I'm probably going to lose and have egg on my face for saying this, but I really like Derek Brunson against Israel Adessanya, other than Khabib vs McGregor and Colby vs RDA this is the biggest bet I've had in a while. I'm not saying that Derek Brunson is a favorite, but he certainly shouldn't be a +260 dog. Adesanya has never fought a guy who can wrestle like Brunson can, and Brunson can KO anybody if he hits them cleanly. I don't understand how Adesanya is priced in the -150 range against Brad Tavares (who is the perfect matchup for Adesanya stylistically) but is -260 against Derek Brunson, who is a very difficult matchup for him stylistically. Obviously they saw Adesanya's performance against Tavares before pricing him against Brunson, but what did they really learn from that fight? That a kickboxer with a significant length and reach advantage can beat the snot out a stockier UFC fighter who also has a striking based approach? That doesn't really tell us too much.

Also I really think people are sleeping on The Black Beast, he can knock out anyone if he catches them cleanly and I can't think of a UFC fighter who has been more consistently undervalued by oddsmakers and the betting public than he has. Daniel Cormier obviously has a huge wrestling skill advantage, but Lewis is bigger, probably stronger, and nobody has ever been able to hold him down on the ground even if they can take him down. There is definitely value on him IMO.
Welp, at least I got the first part of my Brunson prediction right, lol. I am officially done fading Israel Adesanya. That dude is for real and has future champion written all over him. I would like to see him fight Yoel Romero next, we'll see if that happens but that would be a ****ing amazing fight.

Anyways, had my first losing card in a while but wasn't too bad, Jacare saved my bacon. Kudos to him for turning it into a dogfight and showing tremendous heart and also for being a gentleman and not smashing an already KO'd Weidman when he had a chance, showed an amazing amount of character and grace in that fight.
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11-04-2018 , 05:40 PM
And in retrospect I don't think there was any value on the BB, he had a puncher's chance but Daniel Cormier always says on his commentary to go for single legs and make heavy dudes carry their own weight when you're fighting bigger guys, and he did exactly that. Cormier is damn good, makes you realize how good JJ is to have beaten him twice.
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11-04-2018 , 06:19 PM
Im still not sure but did Bones actually roided, or was it all bs. I think he was on something but not 100% certain.

But if he was on something, I'd like to see a clean version of him, there were talks about him being clean vs OSP and that he looked terrible in that fight. If he is on something, I'm pretty sure he can't hang with DC if he has to fight him clean.
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11-04-2018 , 07:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by White_Gatsby
Im still not sure but did Bones actually roided, or was it all bs. I think he was on something but not 100% certain.

But if he was on something, I'd like to see a clean version of him, there were talks about him being clean vs OSP and that he looked terrible in that fight. If he is on something, I'm pretty sure he can't hang with DC if he has to fight him clean.
You answered your own question perfectly as far as I'm concerned.
The other day at the Jones-Gus conference he started going on about God and family etc... I wished the fans had started chanting same old chit as he's played that card 3 times already. Truly a scumbag who will either cheat and win or fight fair and lose to the top competition due to his lack of training, lifestyle. In the end he will likely self destruct and end up broke as his (last I checked 7 kids from different women) will end up costing a fortune.
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11-05-2018 , 10:08 AM
Wow Mayweather to fight in Rizen this Dec. 31 against a Japanese Kickboxer with a record of 27-0. No details on the rules but should be a huge fight.
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11-05-2018 , 11:12 AM
Is Mayweather getting some tune up fights under his belt, for his inevitable clash with Conor inside the cage!!!!
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11-05-2018 , 11:16 AM
I'd love to see Pauli Malginagi or w/e his name is, show his true balls. He talks a big game calling Conor a pussy and no heart etc, but I've yet to see him step up and ask to fight the Conor in an mma fight, what you waiting for, the guys a pussy and a quitter, should be easy money, Pauli!!
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11-05-2018 , 03:49 PM
regardless if jones was on roids or not, roids 100% does not help you land a head kick KO....

clean or not the exact same thing happens to DC if jones kicks him.

to say he wouldnt beat DC at 205 is laughable tbh. DC is just WAY better at heavyweight and looks like a world beater. he loses massive amounts of power at 205.
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11-05-2018 , 10:59 PM
he looks way better cause stipe and derrick are incredibly worse fighters than JJ, Gus, rumble.
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11-06-2018 , 02:34 AM
Jones is obviously the best on pure ability but that ability is probably at least partially the result of steroids so all of his wins have an asterisk.

If he really is clean this time I think Gustafsson beats him in a rematch assuming Gus has always been clean and there's no reason to think otherwise he doesn't have the physique of a roider and has never failed a test

Interested to see how Luis Pena looks next card and how KZ looks after a long layoff and I guess Cerrone/Perry has a semi legit feud behind it but the rest of the next card looks pretty bland. There are 7 fighters I am sure I couldn't identify another 5 or so i'd struggle to pick out of a lineup on the card and i'm supposed to be a hardcore mma fan relative to the average fan. Card after is about the same too, 10 guys or so I have no idea who they are. Hopefully we get some interesting prospects out of them. Pena is one of the only guys to have come out of a recent TUF season that seems to both be talented and have personality, he could be a star if he's as good as he might be.

UFC 231 and 232 do look good though which is nice. Pretty sick that we're getting Moicano vs Bektic when they're two of the top prospects at FW, if Moicano wins he should get the next title shot imo. I hope his price is decent i'm super high on Moicano.

DC is -250 in 'unconfirmed fights' vs Lesnar on one of my locals, that seems pretty decent since I really doubt Brock can hold DC down for the entire fight and he needs to to win since he's drawing dead on the feet - also he has to know if he's on roids this time he's getting a lengthy ban from USADA although maybe he just doesn't care. I guess there is a big size difference but still DC isn't Mark Hunt he can't just take him down at will.

I tend to agree DC looks better at HW because the competition is less skilled. I'm not sure Stipe was ever as good as prime Cain and JDS, JDS just exited his prime and Cain got derailed by injuries. I mean obviously Stipe is a great fighter but i'm not sold on him being a top 3 HW of all time and possibly not even top 5 despite holding the UFC title defense record if we're taking all guys in their primes. I guess not having to cut weight is good for him at his age though.
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11-06-2018 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WateryBoil
regardless if jones was on roids or not, roids 100% does not help you land a head kick KO....

clean or not the exact same thing happens to DC if jones kicks him.

to say he wouldnt beat DC at 205 is laughable tbh. DC is just WAY better at heavyweight and looks like a world beater. he loses massive amounts of power at 205.
well technically it prob would, esp if you are doing roids to get stronger, faster, and recover quicker.

JBJ is the fav vs anyone at 205. He's made for that weight class where DC is really made for HW. Given Jones chin and height, only real way for DC to win is thru decision imo which seems unlikely vs JBJ given reach and cardio. DC is also 40.

Askren vs Lawler for 233. Thats a tough ****ing welcome to the UFC.
We'll finally find out how legit Askren still is.
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