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11-02-2018 , 07:07 PM
What's your guys opinion on the big trade.

Mighty Mouse going to ONE FC for Ben Askren.

To me this sounds like a big win for both companies and both fighters. Not often does that happen.
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11-02-2018 , 07:18 PM
Glory 61 Risk $2276.85

Sitthichai Sitsongpeenong (-455) vs Josh Jauncey ~$520.70 for ~$114.44
Sitthichai Sitsongpeenong (-500) vs Josh Jauncey $500.00 for $100.00
Sitthichai Sitsongpeenong/Josh Jauncey Under 4½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Jady Menezes (+1000) vs Anissa Meksen $100.00 for $1,000.00

Myron Dennis (-160) vs Chris Camozzi $160.00 for $100.00
Myron Dennis (-160) vs Chris Camozzi $160.00 for $100.00
Myron Dennis/Chris Camozzi Under 2½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00

Alan Scheinson (+144) vs Omari Boyd ~$82.55 for ~$118.87

Kevin VanNostrand (-110) vs Massaro Glunder $110.00 for $100.00
Kevin VanNostrand (-115) vs Massaro Glunder $115.00 for $100.00

Asa Ten Pow (-200) vs Niko Tsigaras ~$228.60 for ~$114.30
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11-03-2018 , 02:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
Have a lot of action on this card, and it's a big underdog card for me. Have bets on Matt Frevola +260, Karl Roberson at -170 (benefits of betting opening lines ) Jacare at +155, The Black Beast +525 (smaller bet there has to be some value there), and a big bet on Brunson at average price of +242.

I'm probably going to lose and have egg on my face for saying this, but I really like Derek Brunson against Israel Adessanya, other than Khabib vs McGregor and Colby vs RDA this is the biggest bet I've had in a while. I'm not saying that Derek Brunson is a favorite, but he certainly shouldn't be a +260 dog. Adesanya has never fought a guy who can wrestle like Brunson can, and Brunson can KO anybody if he hits them cleanly. I don't understand how Adesanya is priced in the -150 range against Brad Tavares (who is the perfect matchup for Adesanya stylistically) but is -260 against Derek Brunson, who is a very difficult matchup for him stylistically. Obviously they saw Adesanya's performance against Tavares before pricing him against Brunson, but what did they really learn from that fight? That a kickboxer with a significant length and reach advantage can beat the snot out a stockier UFC fighter who also has a striking based approach? That doesn't really tell us too much.

Also I really think people are sleeping on The Black Beast, he can knock out anyone if he catches them cleanly and I can't think of a UFC fighter who has been more consistently undervalued by oddsmakers and the betting public than he has. Daniel Cormier obviously has a huge wrestling skill advantage, but Lewis is bigger, probably stronger, and nobody has ever been able to hold him down on the ground even if they can take him down. There is definitely value on him IMO.
Def agree on the Brunson line being off but I'm rooting for Adesanya so not placing a bet. The one caveat being Brunson has a habit of being an idiot and exposing himself.

With DC..given how much he has on the line with a win (Brock super payday), I'm expecting little stand-up besides clinch work and takedowns over and over and over again. Sure BB can get up, and could always land the right shot, but his takedown defense and gas tank are god awful so I think DC will just look to constantly take him down till he finally submits him in the late rounds.

Also most of BB recent notable wins have been against what I would consider "dumb" fighters. I think DC will be too savy and smart to take any risks and even if fans hate him for it he may just Askren/GSP wrestle **** BB to death.
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11-03-2018 , 02:11 AM
I liked Brunson the most but god his ****** fight IQ... so far just got some Montel Jackson -130 just because the price I got is a huge arb vs Pinny. I'll probably talk myself into betting Brunson, be super happy when he gets a takedown then be super mad at myself when he decides to 'stand and bang' and gets KTFO'd at some stage

If you put Darren Elkins mind into Derek Brunson's body/skillset he could be a champion lol

Askren/MM trade makes sense, MM can make bank crushing Asian cans and gives 'legitimacy' of having a p4p top 3 on their roster and Askren has interesting matchups at MW. If Cejudo moves to 135 Dana can finally close 125 probably - I mean it's very hard for any guy to be too small for 135 if he packs on muscle. They should abolish flyweight, move all the weight classes up a few pounds and do same day weigh ins.
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11-03-2018 , 05:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
I liked Brunson the most but god his ****** fight IQ... so far just got some Montel Jackson -130 just because the price I got is a huge arb vs Pinny. I'll probably talk myself into betting Brunson, be super happy when he gets a takedown then be super mad at myself when he decides to 'stand and bang' and gets KTFO'd at some stage

If you put Darren Elkins mind into Derek Brunson's body/skillset he could be a champion lol

Askren/MM trade makes sense, MM can make bank crushing Asian cans and gives 'legitimacy' of having a p4p top 3 on their roster and Askren has interesting matchups at MW. If Cejudo moves to 135 Dana can finally close 125 probably - I mean it's very hard for any guy to be too small for 135 if he packs on muscle. They should abolish flyweight, move all the weight classes up a few pounds and do same day weigh ins.
You are right about the fight IQ part... but there are too many unknowns about his opponent that this can't be a bad bet imo.

MM will get to fight a lot of new opponents in Asia. (insert racist moment here) but the population base of Asia is smaller than America so there could be a lot of matchups for mighty mouse that the UFC can't provide as he's cleaned the division out twice and only Cehudo is worthy as an opponent.

MM is one of my fav. fighters for his professionalism in and out of the ring and his work rate. He's always landing pitter patter shots in the clinch when many rest and they added up to his many late round finishes of opponents.
As a a self promoter he was terrible imo and that's why I liked him more. I thank him for his service.

Askren is 34 so there's no time like the present to get at it. DW said a top 5 opponent is next for him and with just 1 win I could see him getting a TS against the winner of CC or Tyrone Woodley. Good days ahead for the WW division.
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11-03-2018 , 07:08 AM
Really like the over 1.5 rounds at + money in the Main Event.
Might be missing something but seems such a good bet! Most likely outcome will be DC in the later rounds IMO.
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11-03-2018 , 09:47 AM
The biggest worry there is probably a ref stoppage

Lewis can be chinny standing too vs power punchers but I fully expect DC to take him down and GnP until he gives his back or the ref stops it eventually once Lewis is gassed

I'd expect on average DC wins late in the second or midway into the third, but anything can happen since it's HW and all that I wouldn't be at all surprised if it goes under either
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11-03-2018 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
The biggest worry there is probably a ref stoppage

Lewis can be chinny standing too vs power punchers but I fully expect DC to take him down and GnP until he gives his back or the ref stops it eventually once Lewis is gassed

I'd expect on average DC wins late in the second or midway into the third, but anything can happen since it's HW and all that I wouldn't be at all surprised if it goes under either
Yeah I'm thinking the same fight will take place, but just imagine Lewis lasting a bit longer, was just really surprised that the over/under was at 1.5r
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11-03-2018 , 04:50 PM
Holobaugh +321
Knight -275
Brunson +250
Branch -306
Weidman -180
Lewis +400
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11-03-2018 , 06:05 PM
UFC 230 Risk $1,887.50

Daniel Cormier/Derrick Lewis Over 1½ (+120) $200.00 for $240.00
Daniel Cormier wins by submission (+165) $50.00 for $82.50

Chris Weidman -(155) vs Ronaldo Souza $310.00 for $200.00

David Branch -3½ points (-170) vs Jared Cannonier $127.50 for $75.00
David Branch wins by submission (+450) $25.00 for $112.50

Karl Roberson/Jack Marshman Under 1½ (+117) $100.00 for $117.00

Israel Adesanya -3½ points (-185) vs Derek Brunson $138.75 for $75.00
Israel Adesanya wins in round 3 (+1000) $15.00 for $150.00

Jason Knight/Jordan Rinaldi won't go 3 round distance (-140) $105.00 for $75.00

Sijara Eubanks wins by decision (-162) vs Roxanne Modaferri $121.50 for $75.00

Sheymon Moraes +3½ points (-140) vs Julio Arce $105.00 for $75.00

Lyman Good/Ben Saunders Under 1½ (-141) $141.00 for $100.00
Lyman Good wins in round 2 (+325) $35.00 for $113.75

Lando Vannata wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+145) vs Matt Frevola $50.00 for $72.50

Shane Burgos wins by TKO/KO (+160) $40.00 for $64.00
Shane Burgos/Kurt Holobaugh won't go 3 round distance (-165) $123.75 for $75.00

Brian Kelleher (+149) vs Montel Jackson $100.00 for $149.00

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+190) vs Adam Wieczorek $100.00 for $190.00
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11-03-2018 , 06:52 PM
Weidman +150...Think his TDD will be too good to get taken down in multiple rounds by Jacare, even if he does in the first then his defensive BJJ will possibly be enough to avoid getting subbed before the next round in which his cardio will likely be better than Jacare's. On the feet, I think Weidman will have the edge to outpoint him and likely win a decision or maybe a late TKO if Jacare gasses himself out grappling in the first round.

Bruson +250...I think he's undervalued vs Adesanya. People go on about his fight IQ, but he will almost certainly try to wrestle in this fight. He had a lot of success wrestling vs Romero, and if he does manage to get hold of Adesanya then a grueling first round will affect his (Adesenya's) game a lot which relies on reactions and movement which both slow a lot when cardio becomes an issue.

-400 for Cormier ITD is tempting, can't see this one going 5 rounds with Lewis's cardio and Cormier's style.
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11-03-2018 , 07:15 PM
God that was frustrating... Thought I was gonna hit that when he went down.
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11-03-2018 , 08:00 PM
Damn, was definitely on the right side of Frevola at +260 but that draw is disappointing.
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11-03-2018 , 10:14 PM
i took all underdogs but vannatta, so you can say this card is going well for me. passed on modaferri. was so confident on rinaldi and holobaugh. kurt lost but ill take that every time at 335. took brunson at +220, hope he pressures like the whittaker fight

edit: i faded the moraes and good fights also
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11-03-2018 , 10:18 PM
This is a really good fight, as a fan i am really looking forward to this one, I like that by 3rd rd ($15.00 for $150.00) jim bet here.Israel will break him down, his technique is extra special.
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11-03-2018 , 10:28 PM
Getting killed tonight. Only thing that can save me is Lewis, but I don't really want that to happen :P
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11-03-2018 , 10:31 PM
took roberson big at avg -270, took dc big at -381 (but i wanted lewis +600+), think im gonna take weidman and cannonier too
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11-03-2018 , 10:31 PM
Weidman via Sub round 3 at +5000 and r2 at +3300.

Obviously not likely but if a guy is flat out exhausted even being as great as he is a bjj... it's possible.
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11-03-2018 , 11:05 PM
man love those easy wins. knew marshman would have nothing for roberson
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11-03-2018 , 11:23 PM
lets see if we can make it 0-6 why the **** not
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11-03-2018 , 11:32 PM
I was really high on Branch but wow Cannonier (misspelled his name) was pure beast... and shows why all fighters should hit the lowest possible weight they can. I lost a bunch on Branch but got a lot back as I bet Cannonier at +350 after rd1.
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11-03-2018 , 11:38 PM
hit on cannoier for 1900 so i took 3000 on weidman. 1st rd gonna be scary af. first time ive ever rooted against jacare.
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11-03-2018 , 11:41 PM
Took a little Weidman by TKO/KO +240. Was gonna take TKO or DEC too but fight starting ran out of time
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11-03-2018 , 11:47 PM
Should have gone the hybrid TKO/DEC at -140 as well for sure but oh well hopefully he gets the TKO it is looking like one of them's getting dropped and Weidman's been better so far, 10-9 and rocked him once
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