Thoughts on Tito/Chuck?

Won't Tito just smash him? Tito has been active the last 9 years and looked pretty good. Fought and beat some very legit fighters.

Chuck got fired from UFC, probably needs the $ and Tito will be very motivated to beat him given he is 0-2.

-250 seems like good value, anyone got any other insight?

im allin tito -250

this fight is ****ing sad though

Agree with above I am going to bet heavy on Tito.

Took Golm and Ayari both at 2.5 for tonight.
Just taking them as the current market odds have them as value.

Also backed Heather Hardy at 1.57 in her boxing bout tonight as she has been getting backed in on the sharp book and is lower on the exchanges.

UFN 138 Risk $3,827.50

Anthony Smith (+155) vs Volkan Oezdemir $100.00 for $155.00
Anthony Smith (+145) vs Volkan Oezdemir $100.00 for $145.00
Anthony Smith wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+235) $40.00 for $94.00
Volkan Oezdemir wins in round 1 (+250) $40.00 for $100.00
Anthony Smith wins in round 2 (+800) $15.00 for $120.00
Anthony Smith wins in round 3 (+1200) $15.00 for $180.00
Anthony Smith/Volkan Oezdemir won’t start round 4 (-420) $210.00 for $50.00

Michael Johnson (-420) vs Artem Lobov $420.00 for $100.00
Michael Johnson (-420) vs Artem Lobov $420.00 for $100.00

Patrick Cummins (+375 ) vs Misha Cirkunov $100.00 for $375.00
Patrick Cummins wins KO/TKO/DQ (+800) $30.00 for $240.00
Not Misha Cirkunov wins by submission (-290) $145.00 for $50.00
Not Misha Cirkunov wins by submission (-325)$162.50 for $50.00
Patrick Cummins/Misha Cirkunov Over 1½ (+110) $100.00 for $110.00

Andre Soukhamthath (-140) vs Jonathan Martinez $140.00 for $100.00
Andre Soukhamthath (-170) vs Jonathan Martinez $170.00 for $100.00
Andre Soukhamthath wins by TKO/KO (+330) $50.00 for $165.00

Gian Villante/Ed Herman Over 2½ (+157) $75.00 for $117.75

Court McGee (+185) vs Alex Garcia $100.00 for $185.00

Nordine Taleb/Sean Strickland Under 2½ (+295) $100.00 for $295.00

Nasrat Haqparast/Thibault Gouti Under 1½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00
Nasrat Haqparast wins in round 2 (+435) $25.00 for $108.75

Chris Fishgold +3½ points (+105) vs Calvin Kattar $100.00 for $105.00
Chris Fishgold wins by submission (+600) $25.00 for $150.00

Talita Bernardo/Sarah Moras Over 2½ (-225) $225.00 for $100.00

Don Madge (+400) vs Te Edwards $100.00 for $400.00

Marcelo Golm (+155) vs Arjan Bhullar $100.00 for $155.00
Marcelo Golm +3½ points (-160) $160.00 for $100.00
Marcelo Golm wins inside distance (+314) $50.00 for $157.00
Marcelo Golm wins in round 3 (+1350) $15.00 for $202.50
Marcelo Golm/Arjan Bhullar Over 2½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00

Stevie Ray (-145) vs Jessin Ayari $145.00 for $100.00

Fights to end in submission under 1½ (+105) $25.00 for $26.25
No fights end in submission (+480) $15.00 for $72.00

Parlay:
Don Madge (+375) vs Te Edwards + Court McGee wins by 3 round decision (+238) + Patrick Cummins wins by 3 round decision (+461) $50.00 for $4,453.43

I'm in the mood to gamble, so I upped some of my bets today.

Small bets: Ayari +155, Golm +151, Bernardo +160, Kattar -229, Martinez +133

Big bets: Strickland +109, Garcia -235, Villante -223, Cummins +305, Johnson -622, Smith +141

The big bets are all main model stuff... I decided to bring it all online even in its still crippled state because using it is motivating in terms of working on it, and I haven't honestly put effort into it since like may. Maybe I can run good today and get some motivation xd

I really need to start betting earlier in the week, a lot of those prices are horrible compared to what I could have gotten.

Obviously not stoked for the card but will watch and mainly tailed Jim.

had bhullar big at avg -203, got smoked by the closing line but i thought bhullar pretty comfortably squeezed out 1+3. those leg kicks had me really worried though, but i knew his wrestling would open up as both guys got more tired in the fight. big on taleb and under 1.5 for gouti/haqparast. big on volkan but bad price, and im thinking he'll close the show early but im not thrilled about how the fight goes into round 3+. i don't really love my bet at -183 avg. think its marginal at my price, good at current lines.

welp need gian and volkan or this is a really bad night for me

Glad to see that Strickland bet come through. The model really liked this spot, predicting Strickland as a big favorite. The small sweats worked out to a small profit as well, since I had a bit more on the favorite Kattar. Still plenty of bets left for this to turn into a disaster though

won a pretty small bet on court, down around 3500 for the night though still. can turn it around with gian and volkan.

After all that I'm basically even. All comes down to Smith.

Won a little bit, so that's always good. Normalized to units it would be only ~.6 though, but I lost on the smaller ones and won on the bigger so it works out a bit nicer.

-6k tonight, first losing card in a while **** happens

ugh. Sorry to hear that number but glad you've been doing well prior.

i kinda bombed the early line 3 times on volkan, but the more i watched tape the more i got pretty worried that he was gonna get beaten in the later rounds. thats a mistake for sure investing so much without doing all the scouting.

Swoop - thanks for the long thoughtful response here.

I personally like Jacare here - primarily because I just don't think Weidman's striking is that good. If you watch him strike he's always been very stiff and sloppy. What he does have going for him is very good distance control and the ability to threaten take downs with his wrestling, which enhances the effectiveness of his striking. Also, I don't know if Weidman was on steroids or not (obviously), but he really hasn't been the same guy ever since USADA came into the picture (1-3 in his last fights with the only win being against an undersized Kelvin Gastelum who was a very good stylistic matchup for Weidman).

However, I think Jacare is probably a better grappler than Weidman (you never know until they fight, but he certainly has the more impressive BJJ resume) and his striking is better as well - it's more fundamentally sound and has a lot more power behind it (see his KO of Derek Brunson). Weidman has the wrestling advantage, is younger, and obviously is no slouch on the ground himself, but I think this fight is at best 50/50 for him and a bet on Jacare given these prices. But, of course, you never now until they actually fight and it will be interesting to see what happens.

My lean is on Weidman being the favorite, but I'm hesitant to bet on guys on the tail end of their career like this. I would think it's tough to really have any real confidence in this fight, so I guess if Jacare becomes a bigger dog it might be worth a pop, but I'm gonna pass on this one I think.

I'm interested in Brian Kelleher as a dog vs Montel Jackson. I was big on Ricky Simon last fight but that's a totally different style matchup. Kelleher seems like a guy who's an awful matchup for a promising young guy without a lot of experience on his record. He's gonna keep good pressure on, he's durable (he took a lot from Linekar before the final shot), he's got submissions. Kelleher beat Julio Arce twice, and Arce has looked like a world beater since his UFC debut. Will go back and watch those fights.

Think Pezao might have some value too, but line's already dropped from +250 to +200. That said I've bet against Wieczwork twice in a row now soo.....

I hit Sean Strickland at +250 after round 1, felt fantastic to see him get that finish in round 2 with the pre-fight under 2½ at a juicy +295 too. Ended up about $1100 for this first UFC card in three weeks plus almost $600 from boxing as well. Lots more UFC cards back to back through the end of the year.

I tailed you for 80% of your bets... albeit at slightly worse odds.

My live play was Court Mcgee after rd1 at +295.

Have a lot of action on this card, and it's a big underdog card for me. Have bets on Matt Frevola +260, Karl Roberson at -170 (benefits of betting opening lines ) Jacare at +155, The Black Beast +525 (smaller bet there has to be some value there), and a big bet on Brunson at average price of +242.

I'm probably going to lose and have egg on my face for saying this, but I really like Derek Brunson against Israel Adessanya, other than Khabib vs McGregor and Colby vs RDA this is the biggest bet I've had in a while. I'm not saying that Derek Brunson is a favorite, but he certainly shouldn't be a +260 dog. Adesanya has never fought a guy who can wrestle like Brunson can, and Brunson can KO anybody if he hits them cleanly. I don't understand how Adesanya is priced in the -150 range against Brad Tavares (who is the perfect matchup for Adesanya stylistically) but is -260 against Derek Brunson, who is a very difficult matchup for him stylistically. Obviously they saw Adesanya's performance against Tavares before pricing him against Brunson, but what did they really learn from that fight? That a kickboxer with a significant length and reach advantage can beat the snot out a stockier UFC fighter who also has a striking based approach? That doesn't really tell us too much.

Also I really think people are sleeping on The Black Beast, he can knock out anyone if he catches them cleanly and I can't think of a UFC fighter who has been more consistently undervalued by oddsmakers and the betting public than he has. Daniel Cormier obviously has a huge wrestling skill advantage, but Lewis is bigger, probably stronger, and nobody has ever been able to hold him down on the ground even if they can take him down. There is definitely value on him IMO.

Also on Brunson agree that its a step up for Adesanya.

Got £50 on Brunson at 4.0
£50 on Moraes at 3.8
£100 on Jacare at 2.83

From my own analysis I like Brunson and Jacare. Was leaning towards betting on Moraes and then money came in on him so fired a bet when I saw he was shortening.

I'm punting away on this card.

Lewis: $50 to win $262.50

Lewis - Moraes - Marshman: $20 to win $1185.40

Lewis - Cannonier - Brunson: $10 to win $833.16

Branch - Eubanks - Good - Marshman/Roberson Over 1.5 - Weidman/Souza Over 2.5: $50 to win $242.73

Lewis - Marshman - Rinaldi - Brunson - Good/Saunders over 1.5 - Moraes/Arce under 2.5 - Cannonier/Branch Under 2.5: $5 to win $16,738.94 (one can dream )

When props come out, I'll probably put $50-100 on a Cormier Rd 3 Submission.

i'm not huge on this card, probably will fire some underdogs if the price gets better. marcos rogerio de lima showed up at 252, when he was 235 last time he fought at heavyweight. not thrilled with my bet on him now, pretty much kissing that goodbye. holobough is interesting, think roberson is still good at -290.

@Malachi

You convinced me on Brunson. The Ufc obv. Wants him to lose but at this price it's a no brainer.

I also like Branch to win in rd1 depending on the price and Weidman in r3/fight to end in rd3.

Cormier in rd3 looks about right as well.