Also, I could be wrong but I think in general raw physical strength is often overlooked when handicapping MMA matches. Both OSP and the BB look to be a lot stronger than their opponents. Will be interesting to see if this plays out in their fights.

Cool im undecided but if I decide to fire Maynard happy to do it vigfree w you. For what it's worth I dislike both Maynard and Lentz.

Almost certainly betting under, undecided on Khabib ML or Conor ITD, leaning towards last second Khabib if he gets down to a pickem or I may take both and just fade Conor sub/dec and back the under if the combined price is good enough

Probably going to back comain to not go the distance too - no plays yet though going to wait for weigh ins now and check what the late steam does and if I end up taking Khabib ML will obv be just before the fight when I expect price will be best due to casuals all betting Conor and sharp money seemingly split between them

PFL 8 Risk $2654.25

Nazareno Malegarie (+173) vs Steven Siler ~$65.50 for ~$113.32
Nazareno Malegarie (+102) vs Steven Siler $100.00 for $102.00

Alex Nicholson (+107) vs Jack May $100.00 for $107.00
Alex Nicholson (+106) vs Jack May $100.00 for $106.00

Alexandre de Almeida (-670) vs Jumabieke Tuerxun $670.00 for $100.00
Alexandre de Almeida (-675) vs Jumabieke Tuerxun $843.75 for $125.00

Caio Alencar (+205) vs Philipe Lins $100.00 for $205.00
Caio Alencar (+200) vs Philipe Lins $100.00 for $200.00

Jared Roshalt (+186) vs Kelvin Tiller $100.00 for $186.00

Mike Kyle (+265) vs Mo De'Reese $100.00 for $265.00

Parlay:
Lance Palmer (-900) vs Max Coga + Andre Harrison (-650) vs Alexandre Bezerra $375.00 for $105.77

Just wanted to stop by and say I'm on Conor so all the Khabib bettors should feel pretty good :P

I basically think, and I think I outlined this before, that Conor will get too many chances to hurt Khabib. I don't think its impossible for Conor to get off the fence a time or two in the early rounds, and obviously the fight starts on the feet. I think Khabib needs ~3 rounds to grind down Conor completely, and in that time Conor gets, what, 6-7 chances at landing something really good? That seems like enough for Conor to have a small edge in this fight.

Things that worry me: 1) Who knows, maybe Khabib can eat a pretty clean hit or two. 2) Despite not having a great striking defense, Khabibs pressure and threat of taking Conor down could make it harder for Conor to pull the trigger. 3) Khabib is very big compared to Conor (judging from the face-off pictures at least). Maybe Conor can't last as long as I'm hoping when he does get controlled.

Whacked my first two big bets for 229

Conor/Khabib u2.5 rounds -113
Ferguson/Pettis finishes ITD -111

Took a bunch of Conor/Khabib u2.5 rounds -113, I kind of wanted to buy my way to u3.5 but it's just too expensive. I think if Conor wins it's almost always in the first two, and if Khabib wins it'll be in the first 2.5 rounds nearly half the time

I also took Ferguson/Pettis to NOT go the distance at -111 fairly big, I think the fight is a moderate favourite to end in a finish just because of Ferguson's aggressive style and both guys being generally more talented offensive than defensive fighters - either guy can win by TKO or sub, and I think it should be more like -150 to end ITD. I think Ferguson finishes Pettis in the second or third if I have to pick an exact outcome but Pettis is quite live to KO Ferguson too, he is hittable. Plus in scrambles both guys have fairly slick subs and either could get a submission. Pinny has the u2.5 rounds at -111 atm so I basically have a free half round as well vs current line at price I got.

I also have a tiny play on Khabib -150 and on Kunitskaya -175, will probably end up getting rid of the Khabib one by hedging with Conor KO/ITD and then possibly playing a Khabib sub prop of some sort in the +300 range but undecided - I really think my under is just the right play this fight and i'll enjoy cheering for whichever guy dominates to get the finish - my main read on the main event is that it'll be a one sided beatdown due to the stylistic matchup and I just don't know which guy will be the one giving it out. The only way it goes over is if Conor basically refuses to engage and runs and I don't think he can do that or will try and do that tactically, I think his plan is to catch Khabib coming in, hurt him and go for the kill and I think Khabib's plan will be to bullrush after a minute or so of feeling out or potentially even sooner then I expect he'll be shooting or in top position for the entire fight until he gets takedowns and wins or gets knocked out trying.

It honestly wouldn't surprise me much if Conor sleeps Khabib in the first minute if he wins, every minute the fight goes the chances of Khabib winning improves (unless he can't get takedowns in which case it's just a matter of time until Conor KOs him)

Made a Khabib SUB +300 play as well which i'm going to hedge to break even with Conor KO. I think that plus my u2.5 rounds will do me for the fight, happy with that and comain not to go the distance as my big bets so far.

Think i'm set for the main and comain now

Main - Conor wins first 2 rounds +330 and Khabib sub +300 equal amounts, so effectively +115 on either outcome, u2.5 rounds -113

Wound up with quite a bit on the fight all up, although the only ways I can get scooped are if the fight goes the distance, or Khabib wins after 2.5 rounds by TKO or Conor wins after 2.5 rounds and I scoop on a Conor r1-2 win or a Khabib sub in the first 2.5 rounds. Let's go Conor ITD or Khabib sub in the first 2 and 2.5 rounds respectively.

Fairly big on Ferguson/Pettis Fight doesn't go distance -111

Medium bets on Maynard +200 and Lewis +140

Small sweat bets on Sergio, Waterson, OSP/Reyes u1.5, Evinger/Ladd u2.5, Patrick, Kunitskaya all at reasonable prices vs current market

Good luck everyone really looking forward to this one, the main/co-main is a great pair of fights and a few other fights should be decent. At the end of the day I got the most exciting sweats for the main and comain cheering for either fighter to finish which is nice and I do feel like they're the correct plays. Conor all day on the feet, and then immediately switching allegiances if Khabib takes him down lol. I feel like I should have a guy i'm cheering for here but i'm happy with either as long as they finish in the first half of the fight now.

If the line were biased in a direction because of casual fan money, is it more likely to be biased in the direction of Khabib or Conor?

Only got one bet on tonight.
Pettis vs Ferguson ends inside the distance £200 at 1.95

Also traded the Mcgregor vs Khabib fight.
Layed Khabib at 1.69 and just traded out at 1.62 for a loss.
Really surprised big money from casuals didn't come in on Mcgregor and push Khabibs price out.

I mean he gets backed in against Mayweather but not Khabib?
Live and learn I suppose.

What about this prop?

Either Fighter To Win And Jump On Top Of The Octagon Before The Official Decision - Evens

UFC 229 Risk $5194.70

Conor McGregor (+160) vs Khabib Nurmagomedov $250.00 for $400.00
Conor McGregor (+158) vs Khabib Nurmagomedov $250.00 for $395.00
Conor McGregor wins by TKO/KO (+185) $100.00 for $185.00
Conor McGregor wins in round 1 or 2 (+220) $50.00 for $110.00
Conor McGregor/Khabib Nurmagomedov won’t start round 5 (-245) $245.00 for $100.00
Conor McGregor/Khabib Nurmagomedov fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ (-145) $145.00 for $100.00
Conor McGregor to do the Billionaire Strut- Yes (-220) $55.00 for $25.00
Conor McGregor/Khabib Nurmagomedov: Will they touch gloves at the start of Round 1- No (-140) $140.00 for $100.00

Tony Ferguson wins in round 3 (+850) $25.00 for $212.50
Tony Ferguson/Anthony Pettis Under 2½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00
Tony Ferguson/Anthony Pettis Under 2½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Dominick Reyes/Ovince St. Preux Under 1½ (-155) $155.00 for $100.00

Alexander Volkov (-170) vs Derrick Lewis $340.00 for $200.00
Alexander Volkov/Derrick Lewis Over 2½ $100.00 for $115.00

Felice Herrig (-115) vs Michelle Waterson $230.00 for $200.00
Felice Herrig wins by 3 round decision (+150) $75.00 for $112.50

Jussier Formiga (+140) vs Sergio Pettis $200.00 for $280.00
Jussier Formiga wins by submission (+545) ~$26.20 for ~$142.79
Jussier Formiga wins by submission (+350) $25.00 for $87.50

Vicente Luque/Jalin Turner Under 1½ (-147) $147.00 for $100.00

Aspen Ladd (-165) vs Tonya Evinger $825.00 for $500.00
Tonya Evinger (+185) vs Aspen Ladd $50.00 for $92.50
Tonya Evinger (+155) vs Aspen Ladd $50.00 for $77.50
Tonya Evinger (+125) vs Aspen Ladd $50.00 for $62.50
Tonya Evinger (+100) vs Aspen Ladd $50.00 for $50.00
Aspen Ladd/Tonya Evinger Under 2½ (+215) $100.00 for $215.00

Alan Patrick (-247) vs Scott Holtzman $370.50 for $150.00

Yana Kunitskaya (-190) vs Lina Lansberg $380.00 for $200.00
Yana Kunitskaya wins by submission (+520) $40.00 for $208.00
Yana Kunitskaya wins in round 3 (+1400) $25.00 for $350.00

Gray Maynard (+215) vs Nik Lentz $100.00 for $215.00

Ryan LaFlare (-130) vs Tony Martin $260.00 for $200.00

Fights to end in submission over 1½ (-264) $66.00 for $25.00
Fights to end in submission over 2½ (+134) $30.00 for $40.20
Fights to end in submission over 3½ (+417) $15.00 for $62.55

Conor McGregor at Post Fight Press Conference - Says Proper Twelve (+150) $25.00 for $37.50

I'd have to say my guess would be casual money is biased towards Conor (so Khabib would be underpriced). My take is that super casuals (people who basically make up the difference in buys for a Conor PPV vs a regular good PPV) are biased towards McGregor. People who follow the sport more regularly, but are still "casual" in a sense, are biased towards Khabib. And more knowledgeable fans are rather split. Just by sheer number I'd guess the first category outweighs the rest, even if the latter two categories (maybe) place more bets per person. These are all wild guesses.

For tonight I'm on: Martin, Lentz, Evinger, Formiga, Herrig, Lewis, Reyes, Yana and McGregor. GL all

Seems solid if they count climbing onto the cage in any fashion to sit on top of it as a win

Well Maynard looks pretty bad so far but lol fight IQ by Lentz when Maynard who is known for having a shot chin gets rocked Lentz doesn't just disengage to strike

Given he's

Surprised Maynard didn't get finished there better chin than his last few fights

10-8 Lentz obv

Would love to see Maynard knock this clown out (Lentz seems like a just terrible person if his twitter is any indication)

Hit on Tony Martin at +170. Good way to start the card.

Bad stoppage Maynard was fine and in the middle of getting up, only got stopped because he took so much damage in r1

Lentz is bad but Maynard's takes too much damage now even if Lentz didn't show any real power today

Lentz is going to get knocked the **** out and soon if he gets a legit opponent

That started at +170? Crazy. I took it at +106 lol. 2-0 for me so far.

1-1 so far for me, had slightly more on Kunitskaya than Maynard

Small on Patrick up next

awful start for me 0-3 havent won a round yet. demoralizing
was small on every fight so far though

I just went $600 on Khabib at -170. I want to drop a big bet on him but I can't get myself to pull the trigger.

I don't think he will respect Conor's left or he will get so hyped up as this is his first huge fight that he will forget his game plan.

So, I placed the perfect bet to make me unhappy regardless on the outcome. I will be mildly annoyed losing $600 or super pissed I didn't place a big bet. Now that is smart gambling.

btw - I used to go by Utah here from 2006-2009 when I made my living solely from sports betting but I can't recover that account. Now I am just a regular square working 9-5. It was a lot more fun betting for a living.

0-4

3-2 for me so far, won on Kunitskaya, Ladd fight u2.5 rounds and Luque fight ends in r1, lost on Maynard and Patrick

Stupid me letting steam convince me Pettis's TDD might be good enough. I actually have Formiga in a bonus bet parlay from earlier in the week that has 4 legs left lol but back to 3-3 for the card insane he didnt attempt to spike Formiga onto his head in a spot where he's clearly about the lose the decision

Flyweight fights that don't involve Mighty Mouse are almost universally terrible, idk why, BW fights are great and plenty of WSW fights are good too, men's FLW is just so bad though for the most part literally nothing of note happened in that entire fight if we were trying to put a highlight reel together

Almost exactly even for the card so six fights in

Also surprised the Conor casual steam didn't come. Could it just be Floyd haters moving it last time? I know Pac steamed vs Floyd too even though all the sharps were on Floyd then as well

I think this one will come down to whether Herrig can bully her, Waterson has the better technique imo but Herrig is stronger

Interesting all 3 sherdog guys scored r1 for waterson

I think Waterson did land the better shots but it was in the early portion of the round and i'm worried Herrig will get it on aggression and octagon control, close round