lol, sure Khabib should be the favorite because its the worst style matchup for Conor, but then again if you going to beat Khabib you better KO him, since its almost impossible to out grapple him and win a decision(unless maybe if your an elite wrestler). And that's exactly what Conor does best, KO'ing people.

Also I think Conor beats Aldo like 9/10 times, that was NOT using his 'one time' lol, Aldo is the perfect style matchup for Conor.

Don't even want to respond to 'fixed' allegations, that's just silly talk imo.

Conor's resume is pretty impressive with wins over Holloway, Aldo, Poirer and Alvaraz. They where also extremely dominant wins. Also Im way more confident in Conor vs Diaz at 155, I think he got a good shot to actually finish him at 155. he is just to small for 170. If the odds are somehow close to even for the 155 trology fight, Im betting Conor big time.

Is he a bit overhyped at times? Sure, but I think you actually underrate him.

Would never bet the house on anything but put £200 on Barao.
If he loses this he is done. Barao is still a solid fighter but those TJ beatings and USADAA have obviously taken their toll.

He also missed weight by 6 pounds and never even bothered trying to cut anymore when given the opportunity. I actually think this is probably going to be beneficial.

Currently 1.63 at Pinnacle so beating that line by a decent margin at the moment.

Such a joke, Barao should never be allowed to fight in the weight class again. Forced to move up. I hope he loses and is cut, what a joke i'm so sick of fighters not even trying to make weight.

The UFC needs to stop punishing people who don't accept fights vs people who miss weight, if your opponent misses you should get the show and win money and your opponent gets zero and is forced to move up in weight on a second offense (maybe resetting after say 10 fights in a row making weight for a weight class)

Or weigh ins on the way to the octagon would be cool, and if a fighter misses weight they lose 100% of their show money (can still compete for win money if opponent takes fight but forfeit 100% of show money to opponent)

I put a small bet on Leites just because of the size difference and Lombard being shot in theory it's a decent matchup for Lombard but he's done and he's facing a WAY bigger guy, so why not. Nothing significant for me this card

I think Santos wins too but not making the bet.

£200 Barao at 1.8
£50 Dunham at 3.0

Are my two main bets. Also stuck a free £15 bet on Saunders/Sherman at odds of around 6.0 just to give me a bit of added interest.

Backed Dunham just on a slow bookie as he is 2.45 at Pinnacle. Have no real read on that fight whatsoever.

Gl to any one else that is betting this card.

Decided to fire two spots after all. Loaded up on Leites at -125 and Santos at -166 for medium to large size bets for me. I'm more sure about Leites, Lombard will need to knock him out to win and has bad cardio and Leites is much bigger and stronger and should be able to win a striking battle at range after the first and is obviously better on the ground too, plus Lombard is pretty shot post USADA and is very small compared to Leites

Santos I just am happy to back in Brazil against a striker, we saw that Anders is a solid striker in the Machida fight, but Machida is a shell of his former self and if the fight is close then again i'd always rather be on the Brazilians in Brazil than against them. If it's stand and trade until someone drops I like to back Santos in general against most strikers, he got caught in a sub by Spicely but would be a huge fav in a rematch, and other than that he's only lost standing up to Branch and Mousasi since he became the fighter he is now and he even knocked out Anthony Smith which is a win that has aged very well. Plus Anders is on short notice so if the fight goes to deep waters I feel like I should favour Santos. I think Santos puts him to sleep though and win or lose the fight probably doesn't go the distance. The steam's on my side on both fights too although my Santos price only just beats the Pinny no vig line my Leites price is way good. One of my locals has -110 for Leites but I don't have a live account there at the moment which is annoying but -125 is still way good vs current lines obviously. Leites is just HUGE compared to Lombard at weigh in. I feel pretty good about this card only taking 2 spots, if I go 1-1 I make a tiny loss, and i'm very confident I go 2-0 a lot more often than 0-2.

i go with trinaldo leites saunders...over 1.5 alex o under 1.5 charles o and ewell no faith in barao chin lol

UFN 137 Risk $4,949.80

Thiago Santos (-150) vs Eryk Anders $150.00 for $100.00
Thiago Santos (-170) vs Eryk Anders $170.00 for $100.00
Thiago Santos wins by submission (+950) $25.00 for $237.50

Alex Oliveira/Carlo Pedersoli Jr. Under 2½ (-142) $142.00 for $100.00

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira/Sam Alvey Over 2½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira/Sam Alvey Over 2½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira wins by 3 round decision (+400) $50.00 for $200.00

Renan Barao (-126) vs Andre Ewell $252.00 for $200.00
Renan Barao (-127) vs Andre Ewell $254.00 for $200.00
Renan Barao wins in round 1 (+425) $20.00 for $85.00
Renan Barao wins inside distance (+225) $50.00 for $112.50
Renan Barao wins by submission (+250) $40.00 for $100.00
Renan Barao wins by submission (+215) $100.00 for $215.00
Renan Barao/Andre Ewell Under 2½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00
Renan Barao/Andre Ewell Under 2½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00
Renan Barao/Andre Ewell won’t go 3 round distance (+125) $50.00 for $62.50

Randa Markos (-105) vs Marina Rodriguez $525.00 for $500.00
Randa Markos wins inside distance (+495) $40.00 for $198.00
Marina Rodriguez (+105) vs Randa Markos $100.00 for $105.00
Marina Rodriguez (+100) vs Randa Markos $100.00 for $100.00

Charles Oliveira wins inside distance (-190) $95.00 for $50.00
Charles Oliveira wins by submission (-124) $62.00 for $50.00
Charles Oliveira wins by submission (-160) $80.00 for $50.00
Charles Oliveira/Christos Giagos Under 1½ (-165) $165.00 for $100.00

Francisco Trinaldo (-190) vs Evan Dunham $190.00 for $100.00
Francisco Trinaldo wins inside distance (+170) $50.00 for $85.00

Luis Henrique (+145) vs Ryan Spann $100.00 for $145.00
Luis Henrique wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+527) $30.00 for $158.10
Luis Henrique wins in round 3 (+1500) $15.00 for $225.00

Augusto Sakai (-200) vs Chase Sherman $150.00 for $75.00
Augusto Sakai wins by TKO/KO (+135) $75.00 for $101.25
Augusto Sakai/Chase Sherman Over 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00

Ben Saunders (+245) vs Sergio Moraes $100.00 for $245.00
Ben Saunders wins by TKO/KO (+510) $20.00 for $102.00

Gillian Robertson (+100) vs Mayra Bueno Silva $100.00 for $100.00
Gillian Robertson wins inside distance (+160) $50.00 for $80.00
Gillian Robertson wins by submission (+190) $50.00 for $95.00
Gillian Robertson wins by submission in round 1 (+450) ~$26.70 for ~$120.15
Gillian Robertson/Mayra Bueno Silva Under 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Gillian Robertson/Mayra Bueno Silva Under 2½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00

Thales Leites (+110) vs Hector Lombard $100.00 for $110.00
Thales Leites wins inside distance (+380) $50.00 for $190.00
Thales Leites wins by TKO/KO (+785) $50.00 for $392.50
Thales Leites/Hector Lombard Under 2½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Elizeu Zaleski wins inside distance (-168) vs Luigi Vandramini $67.20 for $40.00

Livia Renata Souza wins inside distance (-260) $130.00 for $50.00
Livia Renata Souza wins by submission (-135) $67.50 for $50.00
Livia Renata Souza wins by submission in round 1 (+180) ~$26.70 for ~$48.06

Augusto Sakai/Chase Sherman wins FOTN bonus (+800) ~$13.35 for ~$106.80
Elizeu Zaleski/Luigi Vandramini wins FOTN bonus (+1100) ~$13.35 for ~$146.85

Parlays:
Charles Oliveira wins by submission (-145) + Renan Barao wins by submission (+255) $20.00 for $99.97
Gillian Robertson wins by submission (+185) + Renan Barao wins by submission (+255) $20.00 for $182.35
Livia Renata Souza wins by submission (-165) + Renan Barao wins by submission (+255) $20.00 for $94.03
Gillian Robertson wins by submission (+185) + Charles Oliveira wins by submission (-145) $20.00 for $76.31
Livia Renata Souza wins by submission (-165) + Charles Oliveira wins by submission (-145) $20.00 for $34.27
Livia Renata Souza wins by submission (-165) + Gillian Robertson wins by submission (+185) $20.00 for $71.55

morreas inch by inch for 8 minutes and really no effort to take saunders down
that was traditional jujitsu top game vs edgy bravo system on the bottom? correct if im wrong

Just woke up in time for the main event, first round close, Santos should have it in Brazil on damage, Anders only had octagon control

Very confident in Santos from here now he has top position

Looks like Leites got it done via the 'lose the first round win the second and third' vs Lombard hopefully Santos can take Anders out here

Bit worrying that Santos seems to be slowing down quite a bit, but he completely wrecked him in r2 if his cardio holds he'll win

20-18 Santos after two

It's going to depend whether Santos's cardio holds, the fight being 5 rounds working against me a bit here since if it was 3 rounds he'd have it for sure

Boom, elbows to the attempted lay and pray and a stoppage. Pretty crazy stoppage actually with him collapsing after the round. Haven't seen those elbows since before Travis Browne went full Edmund

Santos's cardio is a worry but man does he have some brutal power, pretty good fight. Odds seemed about right at the -150 to -200 range for Santos he's clearly the more dangerous striker but Anders with the better wrestling and cardio

2/2 for the card pretty good fight going to go back and catch the finishes now, any must watch fights from the card? Not the best run for me recently so nice to have a perfect card and glad I actually followed through with some decent sized bets

Conor just called Ali Abdez-aziz a terrorist snitch (if you haven't read up on Abdel-aziz it's a hell of a story I have no idea how such a scumbag has a huge stable of MMA fighters), called him out on abandoning his son and owing 50k child support

This is going to be fun.

It pisses me off that Abdel-aziz manages fighters I otherwise like but he's such a scumbag it makes it hard to cheer for any of his fighters

A bit over-hyped? He's a better fighter than Ronda and Brock, but he's in that league imo, wwe next??. Perhaps i'm under-estimating him, I don't know, but to be the best you have to beat the best and what I've seen so far is that he has avoided fighting the best for over 2 years, not defended a title, despite stating prior to having the belt that he would be an active champ.

BTW

A very green Holloway, an over the hill Aldo and Alvarez, how would they fight if both in their prime?

Conor has had his fights cherry picked, only a fool would think otherwise. Nothing wrong with jumping on bandwagon, do so if it pleases you, but "impressive" that's a lie!

To call Conor the GOAT is stupid, but to discredit him from the conversation is also stupid we need to see more fights to make a determination either way

If he beats Khabib and Ferguson in his next two fights and wins the Diaz rubber match he has to be in the conversation - at that point he'd have beaten the champ a weight class below (if we're saying Holloway was green, which is true, remember Conor was equally green - it was Max's 10th fight and Conor's 16th, but it was Max's 6th UFC fight and Conor's 2nd) won two belts and defended against arguably the top two contenders of any division right now in the UFC

Holloway, Poirier, Mendes, Aldo, Alvarez is a pretty impressive resume, not GOAT or anything but if he wins the Diaz rubber match to go 2-1 and beats Ferguson and Khabib in his next 3 fights that starts to compare to the GOAT resumes.

Khabib's been amazing too but on paper RDA, Johnson, Barboza Iaquinta isn't quite as impressive either - he doesn't have the losses Conor does but his wins aren't there yet either he needs to beat Conor and Ferguson and then defend the belt another time or two to be considered a GOAT. Ferguson same deal, if he beats Pettis he needs to beat Khabib and Conor. If one of the three of them can beat the other two back to back they're the undisputed GOAT at LW and are in the convo across all weight classes.

Even though i'm confident it won't be a close fight, I can't say with any confidence whether Conor or Khabib will be the one that dominates. I'm leaning towards playing the under in some capacity but no idea yet

Max was 21 and green, Conor was 24/25 and already won 2 belts.
Mendez was destroying him and only lost because he did not have a camp, his cardio let him down. When has Chad ever had a cardio issue, it was simply because he took the fight on short notice.

I'm not dismissing Conor, he has a legit punchers chance, better than any other fighter, that has a punchers chance, but that's about it.

As for goat, he needs to defend at least 5 times, I think that's fair, what you mention is not correct, when other goat's in the discussion have done a lot more to be considered goat!

He needs to rematch Max and Mendez, lol at Nate entering this discussion as goat, he needs to fight some hungry fighters that are contenders, not continue to fight washed up bums!

ended up breaking even...didn't bet much as i had already too much pending ! while watching i tough that the smartest bet was very obvious c oliveira by sub a oliveira ko/inside the distance and santos aswell even the fight was at 205 which wasn't stated anywhere!
nogueira still carry power at 41 ...that was a gamble i dont think alvey ever get ko before and again the fight was at 205..alvey doesn't belong in this division!

next week should be interesting..i go with nurmagomedov in the first or second by tko even if connor gave him his neck loll tko hehe

I agree with your analysis with respect to this being a terrible matchup for him but McGregor also having a very real chance at winning.

I think McGregor has maybe a 25-35% chance of winning by KO (he's freakishly accurate with his straight left and has unbelievable power with that punch - nobody has ever stopped Eddie Alvarez or Jose Aldo the way Conor McGregor did).

But I also think this is an absolutely horrible matchup for him. I agree 100% with you on the Mendes fight - Mendes would have won that fight if he'd had a full camp, and Khabib is a far better grappler / GNP guy than Mendes (although not as good of a wrestler). Also, if Conor is concerned about being taken down (and how could he not be?), that could have a very real effect on his power because he could be reluctant to commit to punches.

If Khabib gets Conor McGregor down, which you have to believe he eventually will if McGregor isn't successful in one shot KO'ing him, Khabib will smash him on the ground. McGregor's nothing special on the ground and Khabib is world class.

I actually thought Conor McGregor would duck Khabib, so major props to him for accepting the fight - the guy has a crazy belief in himself which I think everyone admires. But I think this is a very tough matchup for him.

A couple points re Mendes, Mendes was almost certainly roiding for the fight with the failed drug test shortly after and Conor should have more energy and cardio at 155 than 145 since it's his natural weight class and he packs more power at 155.

I think the odds are about right with khabib a small fav I was more sold on khabib beating Conor before the iaquinta fight remember it's the first time we've seen khabib get tired and he was getting stuffed late in the fight

Both guys biggest weakness is exactly what the other fighter brings to the table for this fight

This. Which is why it is such an interesting fight.

Seeing how Khabib has tremendous willpower, nor does he give up, he will put McGregor in his place. Also, since McGregor insulted Khabib’s father, he might just lash out his anger in the UFC229!
https://www.ivacy.com/blog/mcgregor-...odi-free-live/

You're a donk in denial cherry picking your facts in order to keep your wobbly theory plausible.

that's a huge event and that time connor refuse to go on a media tour to promote the fight..also no prime time show!
to be honest,,,it is obviously because he want to protect is his marketable image since he knows that it is very unlikely that he will come up with the W!
so he had a lot of bs to say in that condensed 35 minutes...not looking good imo is't hard to watch lol

+1

Also leaning to the under 2.5, we all know that if conor wins it will most likely be the under, but I also think Khabib has a good shot at winning fairly early on. He doesnt want to waste any time, like he has done with other opponents, where he didn't mind standing up for a bit and trade. Just like he didn't really seem to go all out for the finish once on the ground. I think he respects/fears the power and precision of Conor enough that he will waste no time taking it to the ground and try to finish the fight asap and hurt him as much as he can. It's a bit cliche to say every round starts on the feet, but in this matchup it actually plays more of a factor.

Nobody really thinks Conor is the GOAT, he is just the most popular fighter by far and I can completely understand why, BUT I do think he is really good and has been impressive so far, I would actually dare to say his resume is more impressive than that of Khabib.

Also when it comes to the GOAT discussion I think there must be a difference between being the greatest of all time vs being the best of all time. IMO Jon Jones is the BOAT (best of all time) but GSP is the GOAT.

Like the newer generations of fighters will almost always be better than the older generations just like in any other sport, so while they might be better they wouldn't necessarily be greater.

The 100 Meter sprint is a good example, If tomorrow some relative unknown sprinter would beat Usain Bolt's world record, he would by default be the best sprinter ever, but he wouldn't surpass Usain Bolt right away when it comes to being the greatest. Same goes with MJ being the greatest while I think Lebron might be the best of all time.

Point out what I'm cherry picking? Show me my errors!

On another note, Conor looked very emotional at the presser, anybody else think the tables are turning on him, he might end up fighting emotional come fight night.

His trash talk was terrible, he was almost stuttering, had a hard time getting his words out. He also slapped his head with the belt, near the end when doing the photo, he seemed, nervous, shaky and super tilted. Not the Conor we usually see, the 1 that is all act, this wasn't an act imo, he was furious.

With that said, I want to come back at Khabib's stand up, it is really bad, he is very sloppy and I actually think as the fight goes on Conor still has every chance to KO him, we'll have to see how the fight plays out, but I'm not sold on an early exit be either, but if I had to take a fighter to win early I'd think Conor. They are both preparing for a war, this might go deep, just because they both are warriors and heart and pride will carry you a long way in a fight.

Sure we can see a quick ko by Conor but I think he can easily find his chin in the 4th for example as Khabib slows down and starts to get super sloppy, would not rule that out at all. Problem might be that Conor might be to fatigued, but round 3 should definitely be double.

As a possibility if Conor weathers the storm, perhaps gets taken down a few rounds, beaten up a bit, like the Gadhleja vs Joanna fight, you might see Conor ko'ing him in the 3rd or 4th. More likely 3rd if this scenario plays out and Conor can't land early, or Khabib eats his best shots early, like he did when Barboza head kicked him.

While people are calling the under 2.5, I'm not sold tbh. If Al is going 5 rounds and many of Khabib's fights are decisions, then why would Conor who is arguably his biggest test not be able to go 5 rounds with him???