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Old 08-05-2018, 12:56 AM   #46251
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Re: MMA Thread

Wow, I could watch these two fight all day forever

Seems slightly early the stoppage but Cody was done, it was just a matter of time until TJ put him to the canvas, but I think in a title fight the ref could have waited until TJ dropped him or landed 1-2 more shots but the stoppage was fine, I just like giving leeway in a title fight until there's no chance to recover.

TJ has insane killer instinct. Cody is also amazing, as much as I can't stand his personality he's a phenomenal fighter, but TJ's poise under fire is amazing after he got rocked there. Cody can beat TJ and will beat him 1 in 3 times or so imo, but TJ's always going to be the favourite as long as they fight he's just so disciplined and so talented

I don't think anyone beats TJ right now and i'm a HUGE Cruz fan, but I think TJ wins the rematch, I assume it's TJ vs Cruz next and if TJ avenges his loss there he makes a serious case to take Cruz's spot as BW GOAT

If they give the shot to Moraes i'd love to see Cody vs Cruz 2 for #1 contender as well

1-0 card for me had a big bet on TJ there which feels good

They have to make TJ vs Cruz since Cruz beat him probably but Cejudo and/or MM in a superfight, Moraes, Assuncao rubber match, plenty of other great fights, BW title fights are always amazing it's my favourite division.

I think if TJ wins his next few fights he'll make a serious case that he's p4p #1 especially if he beats say Cruz in a rematch, Moraes and Cejudo or the Cejudo/MM winner if they rematch in his next 3.

Great final 3 fights of the card, haven't caught the rest of the card yet but they all delivered.
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Old 08-05-2018, 12:57 AM   #46252
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Re: MMA Thread

I bet on Moicano/Mightymouse online, and didn't really like the lines so I bet really small.

Won that $500 on TJ though, and my buddy was a good sport about it. Guess the booze/food is all on me.

Edit: Was only my second time watching Mighty Mouse fight, and wow that was an incredible fight. Not sure I agree with the decision, but I'm a noob. Was close either way.
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Old 08-05-2018, 12:58 AM   #46253
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Joe Pulaski View Post
Best card of my life besides machida/anders
Congrats, feels like most of the thread did well today
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Old 08-05-2018, 01:04 AM   #46254
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Re: MMA Thread

My friend won 20k on the cejudo fight and was too cheap to buy the ppv. His stream cut out so he missed the final 3 minutes of round 5. Whoops
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Old 08-05-2018, 01:18 AM   #46255
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Re: MMA Thread

lol thats hilarious

DC just said if Brock doesn't make it to their fight he's happy to give Stipe a rematch while justifying an immediate rematch for MM

To be fair I think as great as the superfight would be and i'd be down for Cejudo vs TJ, now is the time for the TJ vs Cruz rematch and the Cejudo vs MM rubber match.

So many amazing fights to look forward to in the next 6 months or so.
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Old 08-05-2018, 01:55 AM   #46256
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Re: MMA Thread

dj is 100% getting an instant rematch i think. split decision and 135 has so many contenders now. dana hates 125 too, so he wouldnt give cejudo the title shot at 135 while he retains 125.

o/u 200k buys this card? gotta be under, right? one fight above 145.
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Old 08-05-2018, 02:42 AM   #46257
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Re: MMA Thread

had santos to win by tko and under 1,5 ,2,5...but the wildness of holland is something else lol .. especially in the 3rd ,santos got him deeeep in an arm triangle choke...santos couldn't squeeze but he actually crush my soul loll
i would be up 750 or ss now- 80

great card overall , last 2 fight was absolutely amazing
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Old 08-05-2018, 09:42 AM   #46258
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Re: MMA Thread

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Added £100 on Aldrich at 2.62 due to her steaming in to 2.33.
Also got Cejudo at 5.3 from earlier in the week.

Will probably add some more later tonight, looking at Moraes and Taylor as potential bets.
Nice event for me got £100 on Moraes at 2.1 and £40 on Taylor at 3.7.
Ended up with a nice profit.

Looking ahead won't be backing Khabib yet think money comes in on Mcgregor.
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Old 08-05-2018, 04:31 PM   #46259
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Re: MMA Thread

rogan was awful last night. the sheymon moraes fight was insane. sayles got literally shut out in the first two rounds, landed nothing, yet all joe could talk about was how good he looked. had moraes +110 too so i guess i did get lucky no point deduction.
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Old 08-05-2018, 05:52 PM   #46260
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Re: MMA Thread

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rogan was awful last night. the sheymon moraes fight was insane. sayles got literally shut out in the first two rounds, landed nothing, yet all joe could talk about was how good he looked. had moraes +110 too so i guess i did get lucky no point deduction.
Wondered about that fight myself. Was kind of half watching it this morning alongside doing some other things.

Was pleasantly surprised when they announced Moraes as the winner. As you say from the commentary sounded like Sayles was pretty dominant.
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Old 08-05-2018, 10:40 PM   #46261
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Re: MMA Thread

it was crazy cause it was 2 no doubt about it 10-9s from moraes. like not one media member scored the fight for sayles which almost never happens.
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Old 08-06-2018, 03:00 AM   #46262
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Re: MMA Thread

Till is huge compared to Woodley I can't help but think he can't make 170 anymore given he's missed badly in 2 of his last 4 fights it's insane they've given him the title shot coming off missing weight by 4 lbs when he also missed by 6 a few fights ago

228 has some decent fights but the buyrate's going to be absolutely awful there are no draws on the card.

Going to be interesting to see how they fill out UFC 229, it's arguably the biggest fight in UFC history, Pettis/Formiga I assume for a shot at the winner of the Cejudo/MM rematch if they make it and then... nothing, and the card is only 2 months away. 230 already has 5 solid fights lined up for it. Will be interesting to see who they put on 229. Whittaker is fighting Gastelum after TUF, DC vs Brock can't happen yet, Woodley or Till won't be ready yet, Holloway may still not be ready with his concussion symptoms but I guess if he is he could fight Ortega on the card. Rose is still injured, 125 womens champ won't be ready since 228. MM/Cejudo just fought, I guess they could rematch but idk if it's too soon.

Cyborg vs Nunes maybe? Not necessarily a huge draw, but it's the biggest womens fight they can make atm and I can't see any other champs being ready in time. Anderson Silva's suspension ends October 26, 2018 so that's a possibility barely, they could do the GSP vs Anderson superfight even if it's a few years too late. Not sure what rounds out the main card, maybe some of the prospects they want to give exposure to like Gillespie, Volkanovski etc? Zabit is already on the next card or else that'd make sense.
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Old 08-06-2018, 02:45 PM   #46263
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Re: MMA Thread

MM should get a rematch but hes gone for a longggg time, tore LCL and broken foot. who knows how long that will take.

i just wanna see TJ starch cejudo@135
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Old 08-06-2018, 04:32 PM   #46264
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Re: MMA Thread

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Yeah I really think people are sleeping on Cejudo. Yes he got starched the first time they fought but the guy is a massive winner (see Gold Medal in the Olympics) and has improved by leaps and bounds since their first fight, plus DJ is coming off shoulder surgery and has been the champion forever, which inevitably leads to complacency and overconfidence. I see all of the ingredients for an upset here.
Just wanted to give myself a shameless plug here. I actually went 1-2 on the night but was still a very profitable evening for me thanks to the Cejudo upset.

Interested in people's thoughts on Till vs Tyron? I have some thoughts on it but haven't had a chance to watch tape yet, curious what other people are thinking.
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Old 08-06-2018, 08:26 PM   #46265
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Re: MMA Thread

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Till is huge compared to Woodley I can't help but think he can't make 170 anymore given he's missed badly in 2 of his last 4 fights it's insane they've given him the title shot coming off missing weight by 4 lbs when he also missed by 6 a few fights ago

228 has some decent fights but the buyrate's going to be absolutely awful there are no draws on the card.

Going to be interesting to see how they fill out UFC 229, it's arguably the biggest fight in UFC history, Pettis/Formiga I assume for a shot at the winner of the Cejudo/MM rematch if they make it and then... nothing, and the card is only 2 months away. 230 already has 5 solid fights lined up for it. Will be interesting to see who they put on 229. Whittaker is fighting Gastelum after TUF, DC vs Brock can't happen yet, Woodley or Till won't be ready yet, Holloway may still not be ready with his concussion symptoms but I guess if he is he could fight Ortega on the card. Rose is still injured, 125 womens champ won't be ready since 228. MM/Cejudo just fought, I guess they could rematch but idk if it's too soon.

Cyborg vs Nunes maybe? Not necessarily a huge draw, but it's the biggest womens fight they can make atm and I can't see any other champs being ready in time. Anderson Silva's suspension ends October 26, 2018 so that's a possibility barely, they could do the GSP vs Anderson superfight even if it's a few years too late. Not sure what rounds out the main card, maybe some of the prospects they want to give exposure to like Gillespie, Volkanovski etc? Zabit is already on the next card or else that'd make sense.
Why put anything else significant on a McGregor card? It's selling either way because of him.
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Old 08-06-2018, 11:59 PM   #46266
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Re: MMA Thread

lol i agree it would have insane buys still with just conor/khabib but we WANT it to be stacked.

look at that mayweather/conor boxing undercard. it was just random trash fights no one cared about and still sold like crazy lol
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Old 08-07-2018, 03:57 AM   #46267
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Re: MMA Thread

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Why put anything else significant on a McGregor card? It's selling either way because of him.
More people will watch it = more people become familiar with the other fighters on the card = other fighters on the card more likely to be bigger draws in the future if they win impressively

It's about exposing their other potential draws to lots of casual eyes who only watch big cards. Also, they want to break records for bragging rights and to boost the valuation of the company - it's not like these other title fights will sell over 200-300k on their own, so why not stack it and sell 2m instead of 1.5m on this card and improve the chances of one or more of their other potential stars becoming a big draw on their own in the future. I get why there's no point in putting GSP or Brock on the card (unless they're trying to break a buys record) but if casuals don't know who say TJ Dillashaw or Robert Whittaker is they're more likely to buy their cards in the future if they saw an impressive performance in the co-main of the Conor fight

I'm a super casual boxing fan at best, I rarely watch boxing, but I saw Badou Jack's last fight because I saw him on the Floyd/Conor undercard. Same principle would apply in reverse to the casual MMA fans who only buy Conor/Brock/GSP type cards. If they see a TJ Dillashaw or a Robert Whittaker title defense for example and it's a good fight they might be more likely to buy their next title defense when that fighter's headlining without Conor.

Same goes for prospects like say Zabit or Volkanovski or other guys who could be future champs, if they're on the main card or televised prelims for a big PPV that a ton of casual fans will watch, more people are going to become familiar with them and be more likely to follow their careers. Hardcore fans like most of us posting here are going to watch most/all events regardless of who is on the card but the difference with big draws is casuals watch them too, you can only turn a regular fighter into a big draw by exposing them to casual fighters on the few cards casuals will watch and hope that they win impressively then say or do something interesting to get the casual fan to care about them. That's why lower level fighters NEED to learn to cut a promo. Yes, it's fake WWE bull****, but that's why Conor and Brock are draws and why Chael was. GSP is a rare exception but even he had the famous 'I am not impressed with your performance' callout back in the day when he was trying to become a draw. Even Covington has gotten some people to care about him despite the fact he's a fairly boring wrestler because he's great at cutting a heel promo. Nobody cared about TJ despite his talent until he had the big rivalry with Team Alpha Male (which incidentally Conor helped him with). TJ vs Faber would still sell despite being a foregone conclusion because of the trash talk that would come with it more than say TJ vs Moraes even though the latter is a more compelling fight.

Some guys do the respectful humble thing well, I think Moicano's last interview was good like that and he'll make a good face champ in Brazil and for people who can be a big draw in a specific market (GSP for Canada, Whittaker for Australia, Khabib and Volkov for Russia etc) it makes sense to be the humble face champ, but for 'generic American non draw' the best route to making money is to go full heel, it's easier to make people hate you than love you, I mean I hate Covington and want to see him get knocked out even though I know it's wolf tickets. Till is a more exciting fighter than Covington, yet i'd be more excited by Woodley vs Covington because of the back story and trash talk and the build to the fight in general.

Mickey Gall probably wouldn't be in the UFC if it wasn't for his promo to get the Punk fight, then he used that as a stepping stone to get the Northcutt fight, and his Hardy call out was smart as it was winnable and a name but he didn't do the research to figure out that Hardy would decline the fight so he ended up fighting a nobody on the prelims and losing and now it's a long way back to rebuild

If I was a fighter's manager my first advice to take a couple promo/acting classes, because selling fights is part of the job. The two goals in the post fight interview should be to tell casuals why they want to watch the next fight and to get a favorable match up against the biggest name draw possible. If you have to manufacture a fake beef with someone to do that, it's the right thing to do for your career.

Look at the most famous post fight interviews. They're fighters who went on to become draws.

Speaks for itself, this got Nate Diaz the Conor fight 'you're taking everything i worked for mfer'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqUIdJhjZZk

This was the post fight interview of the first UFC event I ever watched, Brock got me into MMA. Brock becomes hated heel among hardcore MMA fans by going full WWE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-sSxDUU4oo

Nick Diaz's 'where you at Georges'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpN40Oikhts

Conor's 'I apologize for absolutely nothing' speech after Alvarez - goes on to get the Floyd payday and somehow become an even bigger draw.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Szj21arytU

GSP's 'I am not impressed with your performance' (I don't think this one was particularly good but it worked)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gX3sEGtG8mQ

Chael's Anderson rematch callout, puts his career on the line (doesn't matter that it wasn't true)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qORgEsZU30

The one thing these all have in common is all of these fighters are big draws, and none of these fighters gave the 'I let my actions in the octagon do the talking I will fight whoever the UFC matchmakers choose to put in front of me next' speech because the casual fan doesn't care about that.

The best thing the other 4 winners on the main card when they're fighting on a Conor card can do is have a specific callout in mind, a personal reason they want to fight that guy even if it's made up, a date in mind for the fight and the casuals are more likely to end up watching their next fight. It seems crazy to me that most fighters managers don't teach their fighters that beyond winning fights, cutting a good promo is the other main skill that leads to you making money in MMA.

Even if they lose a couple other fights that could main event or co main a smaller card, they should be using EVERY Conor fight to make new draws out of the other 4 winners on the card if they can (who knows how many more fights Conor has especially if he loses here he'll lose a little bit of his star power, he's set for life financially and doesn't need to fight, they need to treat every fight like it might be his last)

Even though i'd love to see Conor get humbled after going off the rails with the bus attack, it's good for MMA if he keeps winning so I kind of want him to win even though Khabib's made me a ton of money betting on him and I quite like him as a fighter, it's better for MMA if Conor is an active champion. If Conor loses this fight it's quite possible he'll never hold the belt again as he'd struggle to make 145 if Khabib becomes dominant champ at 155 and Conor is a bit too small to be champ at 170 vs the wrestlers there. His best bet if he can't beat Khabib would be to go back to 145 probably and who knows if he even wants to do that. I guess he has money fights like the Nate rematch, but without a belt he's never going to be quite the same level of superstar.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 08-07-2018 at 04:04 AM.
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Old 08-07-2018, 07:49 PM   #46268
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Re: MMA Thread

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Old 08-08-2018, 01:23 PM   #46269
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Re: MMA Thread

lol nice hit, basically got all of them.
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Old 08-10-2018, 10:15 AM   #46270
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Re: MMA Thread

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Even though i'd love to see Conor get humbled after going off the rails with the bus attack, it's good for MMA if he keeps winning so I kind of want him to win even though Khabib's made me a ton of money betting on him and I quite like him as a fighter, it's better for MMA if Conor is an active champion. If Conor loses this fight it's quite possible he'll never hold the belt again as he'd struggle to make 145 if Khabib becomes dominant champ at 155 and Conor is a bit too small to be champ at 170 vs the wrestlers there. His best bet if he can't beat Khabib would be to go back to 145 probably and who knows if he even wants to do that. I guess he has money fights like the Nate rematch, but without a belt he's never going to be quite the same level of superstar.
great post just wanted to point out there's a decent chance Khabib moves up if he beats Conor (oh hi RDA!) as he always wanted to be a 2 division champ

it seems like Khabib's victory is better for UFC in the long run since it's going to create another superstar possibly setting up a record-breaking unification 155-170 rematch down the road
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Old 08-10-2018, 07:31 PM   #46271
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Re: MMA Thread

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Old 08-11-2018, 06:45 PM   #46272
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Re: MMA Thread

Mitrione is +175 vs. Ryan Bader on Bovada and Ryan Bader isn't even a true heavyweight. True, Bader has got a better ground game and will harder to hit than Fedor, but Matt is a bigger and stronger man in there and clearly has a one punch KO power. So, that seems like enough to make this fight at least a pick'em?

Am I missing something here?
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Old 08-11-2018, 10:39 PM   #46273
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Re: MMA Thread

yea i dunno how he doesnt stop baders wrestlin and his standup is pretty good and good chin too. seems like value
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Old 08-13-2018, 10:05 AM   #46274
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Re: MMA Thread

I did bet $250 on Mitrione + 175, so we'll see how that goes :-)
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Old 08-13-2018, 11:09 AM   #46275
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Re: MMA Thread

Rani Yahya is 9-2 in his last 11 in the UFC against mostly mid level guys with one loss being a split and is fighting Luke Sanders who is 1-2 in his last 3 and got knocked out by Andre Soukhamthath, the guy most known for deciding to grapple with his opponent who couldn't stand up enroute to losing a decision

I know he's getting up there in fight miles and all but he hasn't taken that much damage, is only a year older and is -116. I'll need to rewatch some Sanders tape as I know i've seen

Yahya's been good to me over the past 5 years i've bet on him in most of his fights, he's not flashy and is sort of a poor man's Maia, but is he really only a pickem here?

Thinking about firing Yahya as my only big bet of this next card, he's definitely the standout spot to me the way TJ was last card. Going to try and decrease the number of spots i'm betting but up my average bet size a bit as this year my pick of the card type spots have done well, but i've given it back by betting too many fights on slight leans. Card is still a while off so might watch some tape make sure my read is right but I remember at least 6-7 of Yahya's last fights and I know he's been good to me and while I can't recall Sanders fights his record is unimpressive, although I know there was a ton of hype behind him after he beat Blanco and he was a favourite in both losses, i'm not sure that I actually saw the Alcantara fight and while Alcantara is probably physically stronger that Yahya from memory, I think Yahya may have the better MMA BJJ. Souk fight i'll need to rewatch too I know I did see it but don't remember anything about it
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