Got one bet so far for tonight

£100 Cutelaba at 2.15

Just betting because of the steam here.

Might back Aldo if he gets much higher.

UFC on Fox 30 Risk $6,078.75

Eddie Alvarez (+150) vs Dustin Poirier $200.00 for $300.00
Eddie Alvarez wins by TKO/KO (+313) $35.00 for $109.55
Eddie Alvarez wins in round 2 (+1000) ~$24.47 for ~$244.65
Eddie Alvarez wins in round 3 (+1300) ~$24.47 for ~$318.05
Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier Under 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00
Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier fights ends in KO/TKO/DQ (-205) $205.00 for $100.00
Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier time out in fight (+210) ~$16.31 for ~$34.25

Jeremy Stephens (+100) vs Jose Aldo $200.00 for $200.00
Jeremy Stephens to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+225) $40.00 for $90.00
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 3 (+1200) ~$16.31 for ~$195.72
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 3 (+1024) $10.00 for $102.40

Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins by 3 round decision (-140) vs Tecia Torres $140.00 for $100.00

Alexander Hernandez (+103) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier $100.00 for $103.00
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+400) $40.00 for $160.00
Alexander Hernandez wins in round 1 (+850) ~$24.47 for ~$207.95
Alexander Hernandez/Olivier Aubin-Mercier Under 2½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00

Jordan Mein (-115) vs Alex Morono $115.00 for $100.00

Islam Makhachev -3½ points (-265) vs Kajan Johnson $198.75 for $75.00

Hakeem Dawodu/Austin Arnett Under 1½ (+122) $100.00 for $122.00
Hakeem Dawodu wins in round 1 (+200) $45.00 for $90.00

Gadzhimurad Antigulov (+100) vs Ion Cutelaba $200.00 for $200.00
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins by submission (+165) ~$32.62 for ~$53.82
Ion Cutelaba wins in round 1 (+400) ~$16.31 for ~$65.24
Ion Cutelaba wins in round 1 (+375) $15.00 for $56.25
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins in round 2 (+575) $20.00 for $115.00
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins in round 3 (+1125) $15.00 for $168.75
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins in round 3 (+1200) ~$16.31 for ~$195.72

John Makdessi (-170) vs Ross Pearson $340.00 for $200.00
John Makdessi (-171) vs Ross Pearson ~$897.05 for ~$524.59
John Makdessi wins by 3 round decision (+128) $100.00 for $128.00
John Makdessi wins by split decision (+304) ~$24.47 for ~$74.37

Katlyn Chookagian (-150) vs Alexis Davis $300.00 for $200.00
Katlyn Chookagian (-159) vs Alexis Davis ~$897.05 for ~$564.18
Katlyn Chookagian wins by TKO/KO (+698) $15.00 for $104.70
Katlyn Chookagian wins in round 3 (+2200) ~$16.31 for ~$358.82
Alexis Davis wins by submission (+1150) $35.00 for $402.50

Matheus Nicolau (-178) vs Dustin Ortiz $178.00 for $100.00
Matheus Nicolau (-179) vs Dustin Ortiz $179.00 for $100.00

Nina Ansaroff (-130) vs Randa Markos $260.00 for $200.00
Nina Ansaroff (-130) vs Randa Markos $260.00 for $200.00
Nina Ansaroff wins by split decision (+260) ~$24.47 for ~$63.61

Devin Powell (-105) vs Alvaro Herrera $105.00 for $100.00
Devin Powell wins by submission (+300) $35.00 for $105.00
Devin Powell/Alvaro Herrera Over 1½ (-172) $86.00 for $50.00

Fights to go distance over 6½ (-224) $67.20 for $30.00
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+119) $30.00 for $35.70
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+271) $15.00 for $40.65
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+895) $7.00 for $62.65
Fights to go distance over 10½ (+2950) $5.00 for $147.50
Fights to go distance over 11½ (+16900) $3.00 for $507.00

Eddie Alvarez wins POTN bonus (+284) ~$16.31 for ~$46.32
Jeremy Stephens wins POTN bonus (+220) ~$16.31 for ~$35.88
Hakeem Dawodu wins POTN bonus (+234) ~$16.31 for ~$38.17
Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins POTN bonus (+272) ~$16.31 for ~$44.36

Eddie Alvarez/Dustin Poirier wins FOTN bonus (+183) ~$24.47 for ~$44.77
Alexander Hernandez/Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins FOTN bonus (+600) ~$24.47 for ~$146.79

got ortiz, antigulov, aubin-mercier, and poirier.

dont think anything is a lock, but solid value on all of them imo.

ortiz at +170 seems like the best value imo.

ortiz +170 and arnett +355 best bets

i mean, not how i saw that happening but okay, sure.

I got a small late play on Cutelaba at -110. The Stephens steam suggests taking him at 1.95ish but i'm probably going to pass even though it's arb price vs Pinny etc because my head says Aldo even if I feel like Stephens might knock him out.

Not really interested in Poirier or Alvarez either, head says Poirier should win a lot but I have this weird gut feeling that Alvarez might knock him out


Sort of like OAM and Joanna Contender but not firing either yet

Edit: decided to go small on Stephens -104. From a logic standpoint I hate it, but Aldo is close to done if not done since he's not fighting past his contract, hopefully Max cracked his chin. Will either break even for the card or win two small ones. It can't be too terrible when Pinny has Aldo +105 even though a year ago i'd have laughed at the idea of betting Stephens over Aldo

wow way off on the last two. thought OAM woulf grind down Hernandez not the other way around. small win if poirier comes through

Liver shot undefeated. These guys that just stand and bang are dinosaurs. That game don't work anymore.

Damn, Aldo impressed,
That body shot was brutal

I would have taken Stephens just 5 seconds earlier

Happy for Aldo to get such a big win... but sorry for the UFC as Stephens would have been a guaranteed viable challenger for the belt.

The UFC wants Porier to win for the same reason as Alvarez is getting old. Like both fighters.

not to be rude, but stand and bang is literally what aldo did to a T.

Well if both guys are stand and bangers one of them has to win, his point still stands. Aldo seemed to get hit by at least two clean power shots, one wobbled him backwards and another a uppercut that looked clean on the chin that he just seemed to eat. I guess precision really does beat power and timing beats speed.

aldo looked pretty good tbh. he took jeremys best stuff and came back even stronger.

holloway is just that good, not that aldo is bad. imo.

Joanna is so ridiculous claiming Rose is faking an injury to dodge her when she's not even the #1 contender and is 0-2 against her losing via TKO and clear 48-47 decision. I was never a fan but since losing the belt she's been insufferable, she's the clear #2 in the division after Rose but when you're 0-2 vs the champ you need to clear your division for a third shot, she's lucky the division is a bit shallow and 3-4 wins in a row should do it but acting like she's entitled for another title shot after a win over Tecia Torres who is good but only like the #6 or whatever in the division when Rose gave her an immediate rematch and she lost is kind of stupid.

I went 1-1 for the last card, won on Cutelaba lost on Stephens, but the Stephens bet was only because I was getting arb price vs Pinny so not too bothered by it.

Probably going to make a decent bet on TJ, offensively he and Cody are equally talented but I trust TJ's defense and chin more and in a pickem guy i'm very taking the guy who won the last fight via KO after getting rocked. The fact that Cody is a massive douchebag and I get to cheer against him again is just a bonus.

Was hoping to get a reasonable price on Moicano he's got the best chance against Holloway of anyone if he keeps improving imo and Swanson's prime is almost certainly over although the current line is obviously too steep to bet

Pretty likely to only play TJ next card, there was big steam on Cody last time and TJ won so i'm not too concerned about the minor early Cody steam, but also not in a hurry to bet it. I think if TJ wins this one, Bang finally officially wins his war against Faber as TAM will have zero contenders left in any weight class, their fighter closest to a title shot will be Chad Mendes lol.

just saying once it for all , you know that if somebody come here...trying to get a good bet in their magnum ! sometimes even a season bettor...would get fk all or even get confuse in term of tip to bet because , because , because theres just to much unsignifican information mixed with good 1 on top of each others !!
yes im gonna talking about an orgy of information , imo isnt helpfull to make money !
you are aware of that?

i dont think hes so much as giving tips as its just his opinion on fighters and what bets he places value on, this thread is fairly laid back i hope no one is thinking we are crushers here lol

true , each their own game ! not crushing and not looking good too loll
either way is't not a positive input to read that stuff even if hes the nicest dude in the world !
i dont want to be discruptive for the thead ,but sharing goods is not whatever.. i fund a good facebook closed group for those interested in betting on mma
MMA BETS/PICKS/DISCUSSION

195 members so far...some are more serious then others ! let's at least try to reunite the one that woud like to crush

That's a fair point.

I don't post betting strategy here it's more discussion about fighters and matchups. If you want the ABC of how to be a profitable bettor it's fire on your soft locals when a spot is at arb price against pinny and the exchanges that applies to all sports with reasonable liquidity or become a modeller for a sport niche being easy major being hard. That's not why I post here though

For what it's worth when I first posted here my unit size was 2 percent of what it is now and mma was most of what I bet on. Now it's more like a low single digits percent of my volume. This is still my favourite thread on the internet to post on though because it's a fun place to discuss our thoughts on fighters with a mix of hardcore fans to casuals.

Put £50 Cejudo at 5.3 with 1*****.

Been really impressed with the progression of his striking in the last few fights. I do think Mighty Mouse is the GOAT. But he has to slow down eventually, or at least have a fight where he doesn't perform optimally.

Seen enough from Cejudo to think that he can make this competitive.
At 5.3 I think there is some value there.

Backed TJ in the first fight but will pass on the rematch. Think the odds are pretty spot on this fight.

You come in here and post random schizophrenic nonsense, and now you're trying to tell other people what they can and can't post? Piss off dude.

YOUUU , know what worse then mental illness? ****head and haters....

btw i have zero respect for your mind bro , just miles aparts swoop one...is't just my opinion ! is my opinion is better then yours or somebody else..i dont care i know whats good what not tss

next chapter please

just please stop.

Your opinion MIGHT be good , but we will never know because
of the rambling, bumbling, stumbling way in which you express it.

You are like the Mushmouth of posting.

In other words what in the ever loving heck are you even spewing about?

saw the tiago santos line drop 13. dec...somebody bet the house on it